2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, SDS said:

Are we forgetting that Kassian was never edgy? Isn’t that where the concept of Zack Kassian came from?

Mostly true, especially here, but he has blown a fuse several times over his career.

I think he fits the profile Ink was looking for.

[Curt]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Knowing very little about him but looking at his numbers, he should be a late first early second round pick. In a normal draft he should be a middle to late 2nd. 

Yeah, I agree.  Production is ok, but not impressive for a 1st rounder.  He would need some development, but he plays with an edge that you can’t really teach.

I don’t love everything about him, but if you are looking for a butthole, he’s your guy.

[Thorny]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So, three edgy players since 2009?

Well, Risto I’d say counts. 

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Curt said:

Yeah, I agree.  Production is ok, but not impressive for a 1st rounder.  He would need some development, but he plays with an edge that you can’t really teach.

I don’t love everything about him, but if you are looking for a butthole, he’s your guy.

I'm fully on board with more passion and edge, but be careful about the butthole factor and how it can detract from the team.

Brendan Lemieux is an outright turd I want no part of.

Give me the calculated malice of Mike Peca or the bull talent of Mike Foligno please.

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Well, Risto I’d say counts. 

Of course, obvious miss.

And Zadorov fits as well.

Edited March 27, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorny]

So we have a full compliment of picks this draft and next, except for a 5th next draft, but we have an extra 6th this year 

https://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Future/Sabres.htm

*picks from stall not showing yet 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

Guys, there is no ***** way we are taking Matt Beniers.

That would be too much of a perfect fit.

[Thorny]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Guys, there is no ***** way we are taking Matt Beniers.

That would be too much of a perfect fit.

This isn’t a comment on Beniers I haven’t really formed an opinion on him yet but it would be really, really weird to get the first overall pick and draft like the consensus 4/5th ranked player 

Even in drafts that have been viewed as weaker there’s generally a consensus top guy or 2 that goes first. 

Will be interesting to see if the rankings change, and, if we are even picking from the 1 spot 

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

25 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So we have a full compliment of picks this draft and next, except for a 5th next draft, but we have an extra 6th this year 

https://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Future/Sabres.htm

*picks from stall not showing yet 

Cap friendly has all the picks listed including Montreal's. 

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

This isn’t a comment on Beniers I haven’t really formed an opinion on him yet but it would be really, really weird to get the first overall pick and draft like the consensus 4/5th ranked player 

Even in drafts that have been viewed as weaker there’s generally a consensus top guy or 2 that goes first. 

Will be interesting to see if the rankings change, and, if we are even picking from the 1 spot 

 

There is no consensus. Some of what Elite is pulling from is "rankings" from December. Also Power will be overranked because he's 6'5". 

[LGR4GM]

There's no consensus in this years top 4-6 really. 

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

There's no consensus in this years top 4-6 really. 

Is there a draft in the last 10 years where a clear #1 didn’t emerge by the end of the season? 

Hischier Patrick I guess? 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Cap friendly has all the picks listed including Montreal's. 

There is no consensus. Some of what Elite is pulling from is "rankings" from December. Also Power will be overranked because he's 6'5". 

Was looking at McKenzie’s mostly 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Was looking at McKenzie’s mostly 

McKenzie update his rankings since December?

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Is there a draft in the last 10 years where a clear #1 didn’t emerge by the end of the season? 

Hischier Patrick I guess? 

Hischier Patrick. 

Also has any draft been conducted in a year where some players only had no or pseudo seasons?

[Thorny]

https://thehockeywriters.com/matthew-beniers-2021-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

If people want to see why the team that gets this guy is getting a future “Top 100 player of all time”, read the first 2 paragraphs.

Proceed with caution. 

His game certainly looks really good 

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

McKenzie update his rankings since December?

Hischier Patrick. 

Also has any draft been conducted in a year where some players only had no or pseudo seasons?

I don’t know liger has he? 

Relax. We all love beniers. It’s ok. He’s absolutely the Guy

Edited March 27, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

https://thehockeywriters.com/matthew-beniers-2021-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

If people want to see why the team that gets this guy is getting a future “Top 100 player of all time”, read the first 2 paragraphs.

Proceed with caution. 

His game certainly looks really good 

I don’t know liger has he? 

Relax. We all love beniers. It’s ok. 

I'm pretty calm. 

[dudacek]

25 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Is there a draft in the last 10 years where a clear #1 didn’t emerge by the end of the season? 

Hischier Patrick I guess? 

I'm real curious to see how real "consensus #1" is.

I think it's like the president being an "overwhelming choice" because 48% of the population voted for him and only 34% voted for his opponent. Or so-and-so being "the hottest guy/girl in school" because a lot of people are repeating it.

I mean the label exists, and it's real, but it's also purely subjective, rarely unanimous and exists because a name gets repeated a lot from a lot of different sources.

We know for a fact that "consensus top 5" pick Marco Rossi went at nine and that a credible source reported he was outside at least one team's top 15.

Except in rare cases like McDavid, it's a perception honed as a talking point more than anything else — not meaningless, but not particularly meaningful either. If nobody else has your guy there, or even that close, then you better be doing a lot of double-checking. If a few more people have another guy slightly ahead, then (to me, at least) meh.

[Flashsabre]

There is no consensus #1 and there might not be by draft time.  You can’t compare this year to any other because of Covid.  A lot of rankings get finalized based on playoffs but some leagues haven’t even started, some are truncated, Michigan with the big 3 was pulled from the Frozen Four.

 

This year will be about projection and who the teams like at the top of the draft. After round one will be the ultimate crapshoot because lack of games for a ton of players.

This is a draft where scouts will make their reputations.  You know the perfect year to chop your scouting staff to almost nothing.🥺

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm real curious to see how real "consensus #1" is.

I think it's like the president being an "overwhelming choice" because 48% of the population voted for him and only 34% voted for his opponent. Or so-and-so being "the hottest guy/girl in school" because a lot of people are repeating it.

I mean the label exists, and it's real, but it's also purely subjective, rarely unanimous and exists because a name gets repeated a lot from a lot of different sources.

We know for a fact that "consensus top 5" pick Marco Rossi went at nine and that a credible source reported he was outside at least one team's top 15.

Except in rare cases like McDavid, it's a perception honed as a talking point more than anything else — not meaningless, but not particularly meaningful either. If nobody else has your guy there, or even that close, then you better be doing a lot of double-checking. If a few more people have another guy slightly ahead, then (to me, at least) meh.

It’s meaningful because there is a direct correlation between the consensus 1 guy and who goes first. I take your point that it’s not always as definitive as it’s presented, under the surface, but it’s fairly predictive. 

My point was merely that it would be odd to see a first overall pick team take the guy who’s not that player (s) if he does emerge, which would be quite uncommon. 

[Thorny]

I took a precursory look at Bob’s list and saw him ranked 4th, and thought “if we do get 1st pick, I doubt we get Beniers if those rankings hold up”. Not a thesis just a thought 

Rankings could change wildly, and it could be a non consensus even deeper than 1/2 (Hischier Patrick)

[Flashsabre]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I took a precursory look at Bob’s list and saw him ranked 4th, and thought “if we do get 1st pick, I doubt we get Beniers if those rankings hold up”. Not a thesis just a thought 

Rankings could change wildly, and it could be a non consensus even deeper than 1/2 (Hischier Patrick)

Bob’s list is from Dec 15, before the WJCs even took place. I wouldn’t even worry about the top of this draft, take the guy you want, no one is on another tier then then the others.

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It’s meaningful because there is a direct correlation between the consensus 1 guy and who goes first. I take your point that it’s not always as definitive as it’s presented, under the surface, but it’s fairly predictive. 

My point was merely that it would be odd to see a first overall pick team take the guy who’s not that player (s) if he does emerge, which would be quite uncommon. 

Not disagreeing with your point, just saying that history has shown it's not that important.

Patrick/Hischier might have been a toss-up for consensus #1, but the real money picks were Heiskanen at 3, Makar at 4 and Petersson at 5, who weren't in the conversation going by consensus, but were for real NHL teams. Hockey Twitter would have burned if Petersson went #1, but I doubt NHL scouting would have. NHL reaction probably would have been "real good player, we liked him a lot, we just liked a couple guys a bit better."

The internet seems to think there is a much firmer pecking order than I think really exists.

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

NHL reaction probably would have been "real good player, we liked him a lot, we just liked a couple guys a bit better."

You want to talk any of Raymond, Sanderson, Drysdale, Holtz, Quinn, Rossi, Perfetti and Lundell, that was probably the case for 75 per cent of the teams as well.

Sabrespace has been watching Sam Reinhart for six years and has a consensus that he's a good player, but there is a huge variation on how good.

Edited March 27, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorny]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not disagreeing with your point, just saying that history has shown it's not that important.

Patrick/Hischier might have been a toss-up for consensus #1, but the real money picks were Heiskanen at 3, Makar at 4 and Petersson at 5, who weren't in the conversation going by consensus, but were for real NHL teams. Hockey Twitter would have burned if Petersson went #1, but I doubt NHL scouting would have. NHL reaction probably would have been "real good player, we liked him a lot, we just liked a couple guys a bit better."

The internet seems to think there is a much firmer pecking order than I think really exists.

It’s a good point. Though the analytical side of twitter would have praised EP going first overall. 

A big part of it is teams probably feel COMPELLED to take the consensus guy, if there is one, because they open themselves to criticism by going against such a prevalent perception, regardless of its accuracy. And how often do we use the “he took the consensus guy” defence when someone better (draisaitl) is taken after? It’s the least risky thing to do and most GMs are pretty risk averse. Offer sheets? 

Teams have shown themselves pretty locked into consensus when it’s available, and to your point, often to their own detriment 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You want to talk any of Raymond, Sanderson, Drysdale, Holtz, Quinn, Rossi, Perfetti and Lundell, that was probably the case for 75 per cent of the teams as well.

Sabrespace has been watching Sam Reinhart for six years and has a consensus that he's a good player, but there is a huge variation on how good.

True but some would stretch the boundaries more than others. Quinn for example was still ranked on average a little lower than say perfetti. I’m sure there was a segment that saw it differently. But from the information available i wouldn’t bet on it being 50/50 behind the scenes or something 

Probably more of a slight preference overall like your president analogy 

34 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Bob’s list is from Dec 15, before the WJCs even took place. I wouldn’t even worry about the top of this draft, take the guy you want, no one is on another tier then then the others.

Still slightly annoying considering we are going to finish last by a mile 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It’s a good point. Though the analytical side of twitter would have praised EP going first overall. 

A big part of it is teams probably feel COMPELLED to take the consensus guy, if there is one, because they open themselves to criticism by going against such a prevalent perception, regardless of its accuracy. And how often do we use the “he took the consensus guy” defence when someone better (draisaitl) is taken after? It’s the least risky thing to do and most GMs are pretty risk averse. Offer sheets? 

Teams have shown themselves pretty locked into consensus when it’s available, and to your point, often to their own detriment 

To revisit my bad analogies, it can be like every teen rom-com ever made.

Although I suspect a majority of teams, at least the ones with strong leadership, are sticking to their guns.

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

True but some would stretch the boundaries more than others. Quinn for example was still ranked on average a little lower than say perfetti. I’m sure there was a segment that saw it differently. But from the information available i wouldn’t bet on it being 50/50 behind the scenes or something 

Probably more of a slight preference overall like your president analogy 

 

I Iook at it like this: there might be a few outliers but let's say 25 teams have every one of those players ranked between 70-75 on a 100 scale.

Quinn averaged a 71 and Rossi a 74, meaning Rossi was a "consensus" #5 pick and Quinn was a consensus #10 in this particular draft. But Quinn was the only 75 on the Sabres list, so they pick him. Scouts: "real good player, we liked him a lot, we just liked a couple guys a bit better." Internet: "Why did they pick the #10 guy when the #5 guy was still on the board."