We need a complete offensive overhaul

[Hank]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm not dismissing them. I'm putting them in proper context for a league whose goal numbers are up so much in a half decade that Art Ross winners are going from 87 points to 130 points, and then showing that Jason's contribution to an increase in goals scored is subzero, he has relied entirely on players that were on this team and in this system before he got there three years ago. 

Plugging your ears and going "la la la" to stuff that's been broken down with hundreds of hours of work over a few years, is actually what is narrative-pushing here.

Points are going up each year. Everything else is just colored bubbles. 

[Randall Flagg]

Jason has one feather in his cap - he built a playoff-capable defense. it took 3 years, but it's here. We'll see what it looks like when he dips into it to try and boost his forward group to merely subpar from abominable

1 minute ago, Hank said:

Points are going up each year. Everything else is just colored bubbles. 

It's hard not to come up from accidentally building a historically bad team in your first year lol 

You keep expecting us to be impressed by him doing this, and then improving to the 5th worst team in the league, to struggling along now despite a Hart-caliber effort from Jack

Edited February 28, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[Hank]

9 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm not dismissing them. I'm putting them in proper context for a league whose goal numbers are up so much in a half decade that Art Ross winners are going from 87 points to 130 points, and then showing that Jason's personal contribution to an increase in goals scored is subzero, he has relied entirely on players that were on this team and in this system before he got there three years ago. 

Plugging your ears and going "la la la" to stuff that's been broken down with hundreds of hours of work over a few years, is actually what is narrative-pushing here.

Goals for has increased significantly league wide, but our goals against has gone down. Progress?

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, Hank said:

Goals for has increased significantly league wide, but our goals against has gone down. Progress?

Definitely.

Its a credit to vastly improved personnel on the blueline and better coaching over the past year.

Still waiting for similar advancements with the forwards and the goalies, after mostly misfires on those fronts over the past three years.

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

7 minutes ago, Hank said:

Goals for has increased significantly league wide, but our goals against has gone down. Progress?

 

14 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Jason has one feather in his cap - he built a playoff-capable defense. it took 3 years, but it's here. We'll see what it looks like when he dips into it to try and boost his forward group to merely subpar from abominable

 

Yes

[jad1]

2 hours ago, WildCard said:

Exactly. We're going to find out one way or another this offseason just how good Botterill is

Don't we already know how good Botterill is?  What are we really going to learn in another year about him?

After 3 years of Botterill the Sabres have NO offense beyond Eichel.  NONE. He had 3 first round picks last year and an immediate need for a center.  He drafted Cozens (good pick, but years away) and used the other two on puck-moving defensemen.

He doesn't seem to understand the need or value of a 2nd line center.  He didn't understand it when O'Reilly was here, and he doesn't understand it when he's needed to replace O'Reilly.

His approach to fixing this position (i.e. playing 3rd line wingers at 2C) suggests that he will never be able to build a playoff-caliber offense. 

And to top off his incompetence at building a legitimate NHL offense, he has also spent the last 3 years building a historically bad PK unit.  

So what are we exactly looking for in the next year to prove Botterill is a good GM? A miracle?

 

 

 

[Randall Flagg]

26 minutes ago, jad1 said:

 

He doesn't seem to understand the need or value of a 2nd line center.  He didn't understand it when O'Reilly was here, and he doesn't understand it when he's needed to replace O'Reilly.

The thing that's annoying about our center spine is that he DOES understand it, and told us so in his very first interview, and in many after. That's what makes it frustrating about having 2 NHL centers this year, and 1 under contract for next

[Zamboni]

29 minutes ago, jad1 said:

Don't we already know how good Botterill is?  What are we really going to learn in another year about him?

After 3 years of Botterill the Sabres have NO offense beyond Eichel.  NONE. He had 3 first round picks last year and an immediate need for a center.  He drafted Cozens (good pick, but years away) and used the other two on puck-moving defensemen.

He doesn't seem to understand the need or value of a 2nd line center.  He didn't understand it when O'Reilly was here, and he doesn't understand it when he's needed to replace O'Reilly.

His approach to fixing this position (i.e. playing 3rd line wingers at 2C) suggests that he will never be able to build a playoff-caliber offense. 

And to top off his incompetence at building a legitimate NHL offense, he has also spent the last 3 years building a historically bad PK unit.  

So what are we exactly looking for in the next year to prove Botterill is a good GM? A miracle?

 

 

 

No offense besides Eichel? 
I think you are forgetting the other two he plays with. Their point totals are pretty darn good. and it’s not just because they’re on the line with Eichel. They help Eichel get his points, and he helps them get their points. Goes hand-in-hand.

 

on the topic of JB ... I would give him the entire off-season and a few months into next season to see what he does/doesn’t do. Just my opinion.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Zamboni

[freester]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The thing that's annoying about our center spine is that he DOES understand it, and told us so in his very first interview, and in many after. That's what makes it frustrating about having 2 NHL centers this year, and 1 under contract for next

Botteril does not understand positional value.  Centers and Goalies are the most important positions and he has done a terrible job of addressing those spots.  He loves wingers which are the least important position.

[jad1]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

The thing that's annoying about our center spine is that he DOES understand it, and told us so in his very first interview, and in many after. That's what makes it frustrating about having 2 NHL centers this year, and 1 under contract for next

I think that I'm in the same headspace as you on this topic, but just because he talks about it doesn't means he understands it.

I can talk about a gaping chest wound all I want, but if i walk around with one for two years and try to fix it by stuffing it with pine cones and chewed bubble gum, it doesn't mean I truly understand what it is or its urgency.

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, freester said:

Botteril does not understand positional value.  Centers and Goalies are the most important positions and he has done a terrible job of addressing those spots.  He loves wingers which are the least important position.

I think he loves bargain bin shopping, which is best done with wingers.

Centres demand a bigger price and so far he hasn’t found one he thought was worth paying.

He has invested two top 10 picks in centres. I think he gets their worth.

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, Hank said:

Goals for has increased significantly league wide, but our goals against has gone down. Progress?

imagine what the improvement would have been if Hutton was able to stop a puck between mid Oct and Mid January>!

[jad1]

33 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

No offense besides Eichel? 
I think you are forgetting the other two he plays with. Their point totals are pretty darn good. and it’s not just because they’re on the line with Eichel. They help Eichel get his points, and he helps them get their points. Goes hand-in-hand.

 

on the topic of JB ... I would give him the entire off-season and a few months into next season to see what he does/doesn’t do. Just my opinion.

I'm not forgetting Reinhart or Olofsson and I believe that they are part of the solution, but the Sabres without Eichel are easily one of the worst three teams in the league.

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Am not expecting Botterill to bring in that extra 2/3W guy (primarily due to Thompson & possibly Kahun now being waiver eligible), but that's what I'd like to see.

If Z and Larry are both back, the only shopping IMHO that Botterill needs to do is trade for the 2C and find a FA goalie to upgrade at least Hutton if not Ullmark as well, and then find the 2/3W.  Plus, he / Krueger needs to find an assistant coach that can run a PK & a PP.  (Thry're criminally bad at that.)

1st bolded -- whoa.  So TT can't be sent down next year w/o clearing waivers?  If so, that's an important roster fact that I hadn't realized, since it means that TT is 99% likely to be one of the 13 forwards in Buffalo next year.

2nd bolded -- it seems like most posters here think JB will have the option of bringing Zemgus and Larsson back.  I am skeptical that this will happen, and expect at least one of them to sign elsewhere to escape the chronic losing.  If I had to guess, I think both will be gone -- and I think JB's plan is to replace them with Lazar and Asplund.

3rd bolded -- abso-freakin'-lutely, and while I generally like RK, I think he has butchered the Skinner situation and the Sabres' special teams, both of which have been critical coaching failures that have materially hurt the Sabres' results this year.

[triumph_communes]

I think if we traded Reinhart for a real forward these graphs would fix themselves quick. 
 

Plus give it time for the recent trades to build up numbers 

Edited February 28, 2020 by triumph_communes

[MODO Hockey]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

I think if we traded Reinhart for a real forward these graphs would fix themselves quick. 
 

Plus give it time for the recent trades to build up numbers 

Well Reinhart has actually played pretty well since his interview where he basicly told everyone to get a grip. Id give him that. Maybe he can mature for once and get his full potential working, cuz he sure as hell have not last 5 seasons.

[triumph_communes]

2 minutes ago, MODO Hockey said:

Well Reinhart has actually played pretty well since his interview where he basicly told everyone to get a grip. Id give him that. Maybe he can mature for once and get his full potential working, cuz he sure as hell have not last 5 seasons.

I think generally he only shows up when the team is losing.  When the team is playing well he’s invisible. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

1st bolded -- whoa.  So TT can't be sent down next year w/o clearing waivers?  If so, that's an important roster fact that I hadn't realized, since it means that TT is 99% likely to be one of the 13 forwards in Buffalo next year.

2nd bolded -- it seems like most posters here think JB will have the option of bringing Zemgus and Larsson back.  I am skeptical that this will happen, and expect at least one of them to sign elsewhere to escape the chronic losing.  If I had to guess, I think both will be gone -- and I think JB's plan is to replace them with Lazar and Asplund.

3rd bolded -- abso-freakin'-lutely, and while I generally like RK, I think he has butchered the Skinner situation and the Sabres' special teams, both of which have been critical coaching failures that have materially hurt the Sabres' results this year.

To your 1st comment: Thompson played 41 games in '17-'18 for the Blues, so his waiver exemption period dropped to 3 seasons starting with that 1.  He needs to clear waivers to be sent to Ra-cha-cha next year.  Expect him to start the year in Buffalo if he's not part of the package for a true 2C - Botterill can't afford to risk him not clearing waivers and winding up with exactly 1 31st overall slight reach drafted D-man and $7.5MM in Pegula's pocket for he who shall not be mentioned.

To your 2nd comment: yes, those 2 may want a fresh start, but seeing this team on the CUSP (hi, PA ? ) of being relevant may have them want to see the rebuild through.  Until we know they're leaving, will pencil them in right where they are.  They have major roles here because the 4th line is a key contributor here.  Will they get that kind bbn of ice time and responsibility elsewhere?  Probably on a bottom feeder, but isn't the point of leaving to get off of bottom feeders?  They may make the playoffs on Tampa, but will they have an important role on a team like that?  And if they go to a team in the middle of the pack and miss the playoffs while the Sabres are in; how bad will that sting?  

And to the 3rd- 'nuff said. ?

[triumph_communes]

Tage will be ready next year, whether 2nd or 3rd line is the question. When he isn’t with Sobotka and teenage Mittelstadt I wouldn’t worry as much about his flaws being so exposed.  He improved in the AHL quite well last year

Edited February 28, 2020 by triumph_communes

[pi2000]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

The offense is bad. We need to overhaul it. We should probably replace 4-5 forwards this offseason to rebalance the lines and turn this trend around. Being where Detroit is on this chart is a terrible sign. Our shot quantity and quality is bad. 

Which 4-5 forwards?

Stay?  Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Olofsson, Okposo, Kahun, Girgensons

Replace?  Vesey, Johansson, Simmonds, Larsson, Lazar, Frolik

Not sure where you find guys to upgrade 4-5 forward spots in one offseason.  2 maybe 3 is more realistic... and depends on Thompson as well. 

Mittlestadt needs another season in Roch.   Cozens won't be ready either.

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by pi2000

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

and I think JB's plan is to replace them with Lazar and Asplund.

 

I would go as far as betting money that this is currently up on the white board (or does Jason use chalk?) in his office. (Should he lose Larry and Zemgus, rather, I'm sure he wants to keep them at a reasonable price)

The thing that's worrisome is that I could easily see Asplund-Lazar-Okposo being a terrible 4th line

[Zamboni]

If I had to pick one, I’d try my damnedest to keep Larsson over Girgs. Assuming the asking isn’t north of 2.5 mil. per. And I’d sign him for 3 more years. He’ll be 28 when next season starts.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

I think if we traded Reinhart for a real forward these graphs would fix themselves quick. 

 

21 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Tage will be ready next year, whether 2nd or 3rd line is the question. When he isn’t with Sobotka and teenage Mittelstadt I wouldn’t worry as much about his flaws being so exposed.  He improved in the AHL quite well last year

These two comments back-to-back are a lot for me to take in.  Need to trade Reinhart for a “real forward” and also extremely confident that Tage will be a good middle 6 forward next season.  

[Zamboni]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

 

These two comments back-to-back are a lot for me to take in.  Need to trade Reinhart for a “real forward” and also extremely confident that Tage will be a good middle 6 forward next season.  

When you consider the source ... well, it’s not too difficult to see what it is.

[Ruff Around The Edges]

4 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I did this a few weeks ago, but Murray's Sabres teams were bad offensively too. They were bottom 10 in chance creation, and in expected goals for, and they lagged behind in scoring because Eichel and Reinhart were 60/45 point guys. 

Jason's teams are the single worst in the NHL at chance creation and expected goals for, they are more allergic to the slot and to high quality offensive play than even the Bylsma/Murray teams, it just gets mildly hidden by the fact that Jack is going to have over 100 points this year, and Sam could push 70. 

 

 

This is all assuming Jack keeps playing through the hand injury he currently has