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LGR4GM

We need a complete offensive overhaul

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The offense is bad. We need to overhaul it. We should probably replace 4-5 forwards this offseason to rebalance the lines and turn this trend around. Being where Detroit is on this chart is a terrible sign. Our shot quantity and quality is bad. 

 

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You're going to get your wish, for better or for worse, when most of the UFAs don't come back and Botterill has to trade picks and overpay free agents to get enough players on the roster for training camp.

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Just now, darksabre said:

You're going to get your wish, for better or for worse, when most of the UFAs don't come back and Botterill has to trade picks and overpay free agents to get enough players on the roster for training camp.

Exactly. We're going to find out one way or another this offseason just how good Botterill is

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8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The offense is bad. We need to overhaul it. We should probably replace 4-5 forwards this offseason to rebalance the lines and turn this trend around. Being where Detroit is on this chart is a terrible sign. Our shot quantity and quality is bad. 

 

Help me in my quest to understand the significance of these things.

This is better than ‘goals for’ because over time the guys in the ‘good’ section will eventually score more goals than the guys in the ‘bad’ section. It basically evens out the bounces.

Montreal should just keep plugging because things are eventually going to go their way.

Is that right?

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13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Help me in my quest to understand the significance of these things.

This is better than ‘goals for’ because over time the guys in the ‘good’ section will eventually score more goals than the guys in the ‘bad’ section. It basically evens out the bounces.

Montreal should just keep plugging because things are eventually going to go their way.

Is that right?

As I'm reading it, quality is on the Y-axis, quantity is on the X-axis. So, the Sabres aren't taking a lot of shots AND they are little below average on quality. The Avs throw everything at the net no matter where they are on the ice. The Leafs/Flames/Canes cluster are throwing a fair number of shots AND they're from dangerous areas of the ice.

And yes, Moe-ray-all seems to be doing the right things and may not be getting bounces. You could argue whether their approach or the Leafs/Flames/Canes approach is better with fewer higher-quality chances is better, but they're all on the "good part" of the chart.

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13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Help me in my quest to understand the significance of these things.

This is better than ‘goals for’ because over time the guys in the ‘good’ section will eventually score more goals than the guys in the ‘bad’ section. It basically evens out the bounces.

Montreal should just keep plugging because things are eventually going to go their way.

Is that right?

That’s at least partially correct.

1) This does not take into account shooting talent.  So if you have guys who can score at an above average rate from less than great shooting locations, that’s one way to outperform these metrics.

I would say that may be affecting MTL.  Need better shooters.

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i would have agreed to 4 of 5 to go prior to Erod and Sheary being shown the door. Who are your 4 or 5 candidates?

Honestly, if you fill the 2nd line center roll in the off-season, everything else will fall into place.

 

 

Edited by Crusader1969

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Those charts hint at what we are all aware of - the Sabres struggle to break through into areas of the ice where goals are more likely, and rakish notices that we very rarely successfully get the goalie moving on passes THROUGH those areas. As a result, we only have more goals than the worst scoring teams because of things like the shooting talent of Jack (if he had the 5v5 goal total of, say, Barzal, the Sabres would be bottom 3 in scoring at 5v5). Most Sabre lines do the bulk of their work swinging the puck around the boards to the point, and engaging in 50/50 battles. These are things you have to be able to do, but it can't be all you do. 

Part of it is on coaching, as well. Teams like Montreal and Ottawa don't have a huge amount of forward talent but are capable of breaking open a defense. The Sabres tend to play into the hands of a defense trying not to be broken open. 

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22 minutes ago, MattPie said:

As I'm reading it, quality is on the Y-axis, quantity is on the X-axis. So, the Sabres aren't taking a lot of shots AND they are little below average on quality. The Avs throw everything at the net no matter where they are on the ice. The Leafs/Flames/Canes cluster are throwing a fair number of shots AND they're from dangerous areas of the ice.

And yes, Moe-ray-all seems to be doing the right things and may not be getting bounces. You could argue whether their approach or the Leafs/Flames/Canes approach is better with fewer higher-quality chances is better, but they're all on the "good part" of the chart.

 

20 minutes ago, Curt said:

That’s at least partially correct.

1) This does not take into account shooting talent.  So if you have guys who can score at an above average rate from less than great shooting locations, that’s one way to outperform these metrics.

I would say that may be affecting MTL.  Need better shooters.

Thanks guys. Does this chart tells me anything about what the Sabres are doing wrong and what they could do to fix it?

I already know the Sabres don't score enough goals; they are 24th in goals for.

I already know their coach preaches shot quality over quantity. I've heard Ralph speak about how that is a philosophy, and I've watched them play.

There doesn't seem to be an obvious correlation between wins and a certain style of play, or even goals scored and a certain style of play.

I guess the chart is just basically confirming what we already know through another methodology?

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We won’t be doing a complete overhaul of the offense, but there will be significant changes because we only have 4 current forwards under contract.  
We have 4 significant RFAs including newly acquire Kahun. Jbot is going to retain Kahun, VO, Reinhart and Lazar.  So that’s 8 of the 13 players, with Kahun being the first “long-term” change. That leaves 5 positions to fill with prospects, trades or FA signings. 

UFAs Frolik, Simmonds and Vesey are unlikely to return, but I’m going to assume LGR wants to retain the GLO line meaning that he wants the GM to re-sign Z and Larsson.  That would be 10 of the 13 slots going to returning players, including the newly acquired Kahun.  

We are currently 11th in the East in goal scored and 15 goals behind the team in front of us.  It doesn’t take advanced stats to recognize that the offense isn’t pulling it’s weight.  However you wonder how much better we’d be if VO and Skinner had stayed healthy and if we had at least one other decent center.  This falls squarely on Jbot to fix and he hasn’t and people are right to be pissed that he hasn’t.  It’s been 2 seasons without a solution and that is to long. 

However, our goal differential, which is a better indicator of a playoff caliber team, is down to -12.  Not great but decent and a vast improvement.  It’s decreased from -81 to -45 to now -12 in the last 3 years.  Had VO and Skinner stayed healthy we’d probably be at break even and at or very near a playoff spot.  

As we discussed in the 2C thread, getting the right player to feed Skinner is the most critical thing we do this summer. For cap reasons the 3C is most likely to be Cozens or Mitts. The other truly missing piece is a 2RW, but this isn’t as critical.  However we had been stuck at 4 top 6 forwards and it would be nice to have 6. 

As I’ve said in the 2C thread, we have a top line, a 2LW and a solid 4th line.  That leaves Jbot to decide on/acquire 5 middle 6 players - MoJo, Kahun, Cozens, Mitts, and Thompson are the internal candidates for those jobs, but I believe and I’m sure LGR hopes that Jbot goes outside the organization to for at least the 2C.

 


 

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Thanks guys. Does this chart tells me anything about what the Sabres are doing wrong and what they could do to fix it?

I already know the Sabres don't score enough goals; they are 24th in goals for.

I already know their coach preaches shot quality over quantity. I've heard Ralph speak about how that is a philosophy, and I've watched them play.

There doesn't seem to be an obvious correlation between wins and a certain style of play, or even goals scored and a certain style of play.

I guess the chart is just basically confirming what we already know through another methodology?

We need players that generate or contribute to generating shots both in quantity and quality. We need to stop putting out guys like Frolic. 

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5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We need players that generate or contribute to generating shots both in quantity and quality. We need to stop putting out guys like Frolic. 

This is true. I’d be interested in seeing how Kahun fits into those categories. 

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Goals per game are 2.9. Last year they were 2.7. Two years ago 2.43. 

 

Goals allowed 3.08. Last year 3.27. Two years ago 3.39. 

 

62 points two years ago. 76 points last year. 66 points in 63 games this year. 

 

The team is improving each year. 

 

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1 minute ago, Hank said:

Goals per game are 2.9. Last year they were 2.7. Two years ago 2.43. 

 

Goals allowed 3.08. Last year 3.27. Two years ago 3.39. 

 

62 points two years ago. 76 points last year. 66 points in 63 games this year. 

 

The team is improving each year. 

 

Yep

And this year we finally might even be better than the team that got Tim Murray fired.

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4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yep

And this year we finally might even be better than the team that got Tim Murray fired.

Yes. Goals for, goals against and points improve each year. That sucks. 

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11 minutes ago, Hank said:

Goals per game are 2.9. Last year they were 2.7. Two years ago 2.43. 

 

Goals allowed 3.08. Last year 3.27. Two years ago 3.39. 

 

62 points two years ago. 76 points last year. 66 points in 63 games this year. 

 

The team is improving each year. 

 

I ran these numbers a few weeks ago, and we are improved in both real terms and league adjusted terms on both ends of the ice, especially with Ullmark in goal.

One other note, while the offense needs even more improvement and actual worse part of our team is our PK. 

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3 minutes ago, Hank said:

Yes. Goals for, goals against and points improve each year. That sucks. 

Well, when your first year is so bad that you plummet to tank-level numbers in both, that would make sense, ESPECIALLY when league-wide goal scoring is also going up each year. 

Do you think those numbers are compelling? Because this forum has dived into much greater detail on a day to day basis over the last three years than that

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31 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We won’t be doing a complete overhaul of the offense, but there will be significant changes because we only have 4 current forwards under contract.  
We have 4 significant RFAs including newly acquire Kahun. Jbot is going to retain Kahun, VO, Reinhart and Lazar.  So that’s 8 of the 13 players, with Kahun being the first “long-term” change. That leaves 5 positions to fill with prospects, trades or FA signings. 

UFAs Frolik, Simmonds and Vesey are unlikely to return, but I’m going to assume LGR wants to retain the GLO line meaning that he wants the GM to re-sign Z and Larsson.  That would be 10 of the 13 slots going to returning players, including the newly acquired Kahun.  

We are currently 11th in the East in goal scored and 15 goals behind the team in front of us.  It doesn’t take advanced stats to recognize that the offense isn’t pulling it’s weight.  However you wonder how much better we’d be if VO and Skinner had stayed healthy and if we had at least one other decent center.  This falls squarely on Jbot to fix and he hasn’t and people are right to be pissed that he hasn’t.  It’s been 2 seasons without a solution and that is to long. 

However, our goal differential, which is a better indicator of a playoff caliber team, is down to -12.  Not great but decent and a vast improvement.  It’s decreased from -81 to -45 to now -12 in the last 3 years.  Had VO and Skinner stayed healthy we’d probably be at break even and at or very near a playoff spot.  

As we discussed in the 2C thread, getting the right player to feed Skinner is the most critical thing we do this summer. For cap reasons the 3C is most likely to be Cozens or Mitts. The other truly missing piece is a 2RW, but this isn’t as critical.  However we had been stuck at 4 top 6 forwards and it would be nice to have 6. 

As I’ve said in the 2C thread, we have a top line, a 2LW and a solid 4th line.  That leaves Jbot to decide on/acquire 5 middle 6 players - MoJo, Kahun, Cozens, Mitts, and Thompson are the internal candidates for those jobs, but I believe and I’m sure LGR hopes that Jbot goes outside the organization to at least the 2C.

 


 

 

Am in the bring Girgensons & Lazar back camp.  So only have 5 spots to fill IMHO.  (2C, 2RW/3LW, 3C, 3RW, and 13)

THE 2C HAS to come via trade; it maybe possibly could be adequately filled internally or via luck in FA, but maybe possibly & luck are not plans.  The plan has to be expected to have Johansson & Kahun filling 2 of those spots & IMHO Lazar is also filling 1 of them.  Which leaves Asplund (he's the guy you keep forgetting about), Cozens, Mittelstadt, & Thompson battling for that last spot.

Personally, pretty sure my preference would be (excepting giving Cozens the 9 game tryout, because he can only be emergency recalled after he goes back to Lethbridge) to PLAN on having all of them toiling in the minors (WHL for Dylan) and bring in another 2nd line / 3rd line tweener winger either in FA or via sending out a couple of 4th rounders (or a 3rd rounder if they own 1 other than their own) for them to try to beat out.

Force the competition and see which, if any, of the kids can rise to the challenge and beat out Kahun, Lazar, or the yet to be named 2nd/3rd line winger.  If they beat any of them out, awesome, they'll have earned their spot.  If not, the Amerks have an ever stronger core.

Am not expecting Botterill to bring in that extra 2/3W guy (primarily due to Thompson & possibly Kahun now being waiver eligible), but that's what I'd like to see.

If Z and Larry are both back, the only shopping IMHO that Botterill needs to do is trade for the 2C and find a FA goalie to upgrade at least Hutton if not Ullmark as well, and then find the 2/3W.  Plus, he / Krueger needs to find an assistant coach that can run a PK & a PP.  (Thry're criminally bad at that.)

They'll have depth to cover injuries, even losing 1 of those kids and a RHD in the trade for the 2C.  They'll have a legit competitive team.

Edited by Taro T

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Murray was fired with a team that was 24th in scoring, and 21st in goals allowed. Again, I repeat, this was a fireable offense.

Jason then made a team that was 31st in scoring, and 29th in goals allowed.

He then made a team that was 23rd in scoring and 24th in goals allowed. 

He now has a team that's 21st in scoring and 17th in goals allowed.

Stunning, incredible work. Especially when you consider that our goal scoring is driven entirely by forwards who were here before he got here, while all of his forward additions comprise the single-worst middle 6 in the entire NHL

Edited by Randall Flagg
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3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Murray was fired with a team that was 24th in scoring, and 21st in goals allowed. 

Jason then made a team that was 31st in scoring, and 29th in goals allowed.

He then made a team that was 23rd in scoring and 24th in goals allowed. 

He now has a team that's 21st in scoring and 17th in goals allowed.

Stunning, incredible work. Especially when you consider that our goal scoring is driven entirely by forwards who were here before he got here, while all of his forward additions comprise the single-worst middle 6 in the entire NHL

Letterkenny GIF by Crave

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13 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Well, when your first year is so bad that you plummet to tank-level numbers in both, that would make sense, ESPECIALLY when league-wide goal scoring is also going up each year. 

Do you think those numbers are compelling? Because this forum has dived into much greater detail on a day to day basis over the last three years than that

They're really the numbers that matter most. That's indisputable. Dismissing them is being hard headed to push a narrative. 

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2 hours ago, WildCard said:

Exactly. We're going to find out one way or another this offseason just how good Botterill is

I think we already know how "good" Jbots is. I have zero faith in his ability to evaluate forward talent. Who has he brought onto this team whose excelled offensively? Earlier I'd say Skinner but he's a freaking disaster now and we are stuck paying him $9M/year for 7 more years. Every other forward acquisition has resulted in under producing garbage.  

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3 minutes ago, Hank said:

They're really the numbers that matter most. That's indisputable. Dismissing them is being hard headed to push a narrative. 

I'm not dismissing them. I'm putting them in proper context for a league whose goal numbers are up so much in a half decade that Art Ross winners are going from 87 points to 130 points, and then showing that Jason's personal contribution to an increase in goals scored is subzero, he has relied entirely on players that were on this team and in this system before he got there three years ago. 

Plugging your ears and going "la la la" to stuff that's been broken down with hundreds of hours of work over a few years, is actually what is narrative-pushing here.

Edited by Randall Flagg

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I did this a few weeks ago, but Murray's Sabres teams were bad offensively too. They were bottom 10 in chance creation, and in expected goals for, and they lagged behind in scoring because Eichel and Reinhart were 60/45 point guys. 

Jason's teams are the single worst in the NHL at chance creation and expected goals for, they are more allergic to the slot and to high quality offensive play than even the Bylsma/Murray teams, it just gets mildly hidden by the fact that Jack is going to have over 100 points this year, and Sam could push 70. 

 

Edited by Randall Flagg
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