Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

[Taro T]

After diving into the analytics, I think Botterill has an outside chance of winning this trade and immediately improving this team.  To understand this possibility, you have to look at both O'Reilly and the most important player coming back to the Sabres, Patrik Berglund, very closely to understand how each of them contributed to the team and produced points.  You have to go beyond the lopsided comparison of 24G and 37A for O'Reilly and 17G and 9A for Berglund.

 

Housley used O'Reilly as a jack of all trades: O'Reilly led Sabres forwards with 1268 minutes of even strength, was 2nd to Larsson in shorthanded minutes with 126, and led the team in powerplay minutes with 291.  This is akin to taking the player with the highest attributes in NHL 2018 and putting him on all of your lines.  His total time on ice was third on the team, only behind Risto and Scandella- ahead of every other defenseman.  To say he got leaned on to carry the team is an understatement- his player usage shows he has the hardest quality of competition of any regular forward, but he was successful in this role by all basic measurable individual attributes: goals, assists, possession, etc.

 

Breaking down O'Reilly's game will help reveal how he really contributed:  Of his 24 goals, 9 of them were even strength.  The other 15 were on the powerplay.  Of his 37 assists, 25 of them were even strength.  8 of them were on the powerplay.  4 were shorthanded.  O'Reilly produced 0.43 goals per 60 minutes at even strength.  He produced 1.18 assists per 60 minutes at even strength.  O'Reilly produced 0.87 P1/60 (P1 is goals or primary assists).

 

Berglund wasn't used very much, partly due to injury.  Berglund played 769 even strength minutes.  He played 53 minutes shorthanded.  He played 98 minutes on the powerplay.

 

Breaking down Patrik Berglund's game will help reveal how he could contribute:  Of his 17 goals, 13 were at even strength; even in his limited time, this put him fourth on the team behind only Tarasenko, Schenn, and Schwartz, who all logged more than 1200 even strength minutes.  3 goals were on the powerplay.  1 was shorthanded.  Of his 9 assists, 6 were at even strength.  3 of them were on the powerplay.  Berglund produced 1.01 goals per 60 minutes at even strength.  He produced 0.47 assists per 60 minutes at even strength.  Berglund produced 1.29 P1/60.

 

O'Reilly had good even strength possession in a tough role.  He posted a Corsi For % of 49.9 in a role where his Quality of Competition of 0.13 and Offensive Zone Start % was 41.1.  Berglund matched that possession with a CF% of 52.4 in an extremely similar even strength usage: he had a QoC of 0.15 and a OZ Starts % of 43.2.

 

The analysis so far shows that the Sabres might try to use Berglund in a way that he produces primary points as a 2/3 center and give him the even strength minutes to do so.  He produced that way in a similar situation in St Louis.  I don't know if the Sabres will give him shorthanded or powerplay minutes.

 

The problem that arises is that O'Reilly's even strength possession could have been held back by his teammates.  O'Reilly's Corsi For % Quality or Teammate (Corsi Quality of Teammates; The weighted average CF% of a player’s teammates) was 46.5.  This was bottom five among Sabres.  Berglund's possession numbers, close to O'Reilly's, came with better teammates: Berglund's Corsi For % Quality of Teammate was 50.7.  This is middle of the road among Blues players, but still a considerably better situation than O'Reilly.  This isn't surprising, considering St Louis is a markedly better possession team than Buffalo: The overall range of CF%QoTs for each team, Buffalo players ranged from 46.15 to 48.45.  St Louis ranged from 47.28 to 52.69.  (Side note: Combined with the game outcomes (losing), this could be a contributing factor to why O'Reilly wasn't happy with the team performance: he had on average some of the worst possession teammates on a bad possession team.)  So while Berglund may have had a better set of teammates than O'Reilly, O'Reilly wasn't going to be in a much better spot regardless of who he played with in Buffalo.

 

The gigantic X factor left standing in this analysis is if Berglund can continue to produce at the pace he did at even strength in St Louis but with Buffalo Sabres as teammates.  If the answer is yes, it is possible that Berglund can replace much of O'Reilly's even strength contribution.  And if that is the case, Buffalo will have won this trade hands down, no question, and received a package of players that can improve this team, with draft pick cherries on top.

 

Another, lesser factor is who will replace O'Reilly's 3.1G/60 on the powerplay, but this is harder to pin down statistically.

 

If this all sounds familiar, Marty Biron was spouting these kinds of thoughts in different way, claiming that most of O'Reilly's production was on the powerplay.  It's not necessarily wrong, but there's definitely a deeper nuance here.

 

The takeaway is that this is not an off-the-hip trade by Botterill.  This was very carefully calculated, likely with help from his analytics department.  But this is also the kind of modern trade that's right out of Moneyball (see: trading Pena to play Hatteberg): a trade of a team's star player for a statistical gain, and if it backfires, it could cost Botterill his job.

IF this is the Berglund the Sabres got (even if just for the 1st 2 years) the trade is OK. The Sabres need to have at least ONE of the at least nine possible options (at present) to fill in in a tough minute role (either 2nd or 3rd C depending on which line Housley will try to match against the other team's top unit when Eichel's line doesn't get that call) to be viable. In '20-'21, at least 1 of Mittelstadt or Reinhart needs to be there (w/ Asplund & eventually Davidsson ascending to a true 3C role) but it is, IMHO, foolish to expect either Sam or Casey to be ready for that role in October. And even nect October could be premature as well.

 

So, unless another move is made, which likely will weaken the D, Berglund has to be able to step up & learn the system quickly & perform like he did in the past. Hopefully, your hope isn't misdirected. Not there yet myself.

 

They definitely will replace O'Reilly's role by committee. But Berglund needs to be a major part of that committee or they'll have better odds than most at landing Hughes. And watching a true ####show for at least the 5th time in 6 years isn't something to look forward to.

 

But based on everything that I've been reading, am expecting that Berglund won't be what the Sabres get.

[IKnowPhysics]

Here's an analysis of Sobotka of a poster who's particularly angry today on hf. It's analytics heavy and I don't know what most of them mean, but it's interesting because it's a take from before we had any idea we were getting Vlad, early April: 

 

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/roster-speculation-2018-off-season.2474709/page-4#post-144216721

 

I'm not 100% convinced that Sobotka is totally useless, especially as he'll slide into a bottom six role, and will likely improve that position even if he takes a dump all over the ice.

 

That said, I believe that if any part of this trade is a throw-in, it's him.  I don't think we asked for him.  I think St Louis Cap Dumped him on us, and we took him, justifying it as depth or as added incentive for STL to give us the other parts.

[TrueBlueGED]

In response to IKP, I will say that comparing scoring across teams is really tricky. Here are two real players:

 

Player A:

P1/60: 2.12

CF%: 46.81

GF%: 55.56

xGF: 37.18

xGF%: 47.22

Zone-start ratio: 61.66

TOI% QoT: 29.59

CF% QoT: 49.17

TOI% QoC: 28.47

CF% QoC: 50.01

 

Player B

P1/60: 1.67

CF%: 49.03

GF%: 45.35

xGF: 37.18

xGF%: 47.62

Zone-start ratio: 60.55

TOI% QoT: 30.62

CF% QoT: 47.91

TOI% QoC: 29.48

CF% QoC: 50.1

 

Those usage numbers are incredibly close for players on different teams. Basically, both players were pretty sheltered and their coach tried to maximize the offensive situations they were put in. Player A, however, produced considerably more even strength scoring than player B. Given these numbers, you would think there would be a considerable even strength scoring dropoff of Player A's team if they swapped Player A out for Player B. I think that is a fair reading of the numbers. 

 

Player B is Jack Eichel. Player A? Well, that's none than our old friend, much-maligned Thomas Vanek! Raise your hand if you saw that coming. Vanek was 9th in the entire NHL in P1/60 among players skating at least 800 ES minutes. Yes, you're reading that correctly. Eichel was 46h. Swapping Eichel for Vanek would not only not be much of a dropoff by this metric, but it would be a drastic improvement. Is there a single person anywhere who would think it's a good idea to make such a move? Or that those metrics would translate straight to the ice surface? 

 

If Botterill and crew really are relying on analytics to drive decision-making, and their actions are based on a conclusion that swapping out O'Reilly for Berglund and Sobotka will be roughly the same on the ice....they need to fire their entire stats department.

[Doohickie]

it will be whomever Eichel doesnt get along with again, and we will all blame that person for being a lockerroom cancer who just cant play nice with Eichel....

 

I predict the next conflict will be between Party Boy Jack and All-In Dahlin.  I further predict that Dahlin comes out on top (either Eich toes the line or he's the next to go).

[darksabre]

Interesting comments from O'Reilly via reporters on Twitter. Sounds like he really wanted out of Buffalo.

[Georgia Blizzard]

I predict the next conflict will be between Party Boy Jack and All-In Dahlin.  I further predict that Dahlin comes out on top (either Eich toes the line or he's the next to go).

 

 

People use to call Jim Kelly party boy, how did that turn out ?

[Doohickie]

If Berglund can fill the defensive center role...

 

I mentioned that about 5 pages ago.... and it was actually echoing what someone else said.

 

But unlike if we had kept ROR, there will be room for Casey to grow into the role; it won't be a case of ROR swallowing all the minutes.

[IKnowPhysics]

Interesting comments from O'Reilly via reporters on Twitter. Sounds like he really wanted out of Buffalo.

 

 

If that's real, and O'Reilly demanded a trade, then I give Jason Botterill a whole hell of a lot more leeway on trying to get a return on him than simply trying, and potentially failing, to improve this team by moving O'Reilly out of the blue.

[Kruppstahl]

Interesting comments from O'Reilly via reporters on Twitter. Sounds like he really wanted out of Buffalo.

The guy initiated the most purposeful and active "Trade Me!" campaign I have ever seen from an NHL player last year!

 

Of course he wanted out.  Just not sure we got enough in return for him.

[Neo]

I predict the next conflict will be between Party Boy Jack and All-In Dahlin.  I further predict that Dahlin comes out on top (either Eich toes the line or he's the next to go).

I’ve had this nightmare for a week, but I don’t get to a prediction.

 

I think it'll be interesting to watch what they do with the "C" come 2018.   If Jack doesn't get it, JBot's got him on a short leash.

Edited July 2, 2018 by Neo

[Kruppstahl]

I predict the next conflict will be between Party Boy Jack and All-In Dahlin.  I further predict that Dahlin comes out on top (either Eich toes the line or he's the next to go).

Interesting comments.  Dahlin has not played in the NHL yet, but I predict he is going to be the real deal superstar as compared to Eichel's close but not quite there imitation of same.

 

Dahlin will also prove to be more valuable to the team, long term.  

 

A stud puck moving D-man who can play half a game just has a lot more impact on the game than a 1C, as important as a good 1C is as well.

 

I.E., I'd take Dahlin over McDavid if both were available in the same draft and I pick first.

[Taro T]

Interesting comments from O'Reilly via reporters on Twitter. Sounds like he really wanted out of Buffalo.

  

If that's real, and O'Reilly demanded a trade, then I give Jason Botterill a whole hell of a lot more leeway on trying to get a return on him than simply trying, and potentially failing, to improve this team by moving O'Reilly out of the blue.

Much less unhappy about the haul if the alternative was him moping through the 1st 3 months of the season.

[TrueBlueGED]

  

Much less unhappy about the haul if the alternative was him moping through the 1st 3 months of the season.

 

If he did that, we might have only gotten a Duchene-level return for him. ;)

[WildCard]

Interesting comments from O'Reilly via reporters on Twitter. Sounds like he really wanted out of Buffalo.

Can't seem to find them. Can you post the tweets?

[Doohickie]

Berglund has to be able to step up & learn the system quickly & perform like he did in the past. Hopefully, your hope isn't misdirected. Not there yet myself.

 

They definitely will replace O'Reilly's role by committee. But Berglund needs to be a major part of that committee or they'll have better odds than most at landing Hughes. And watching a true ####show for at least the 5th time in 6 years isn't something to look forward to.

 

But based on everything that I've been reading, am expecting that Berglund won't be what the Sabres get.

 

It doesn't matter.

 

Seriously.

 

Berglund doesn't have to perform at a high level.  He just needs to eat up the tough minutes to shelter Casey (and possibly Samson if he's returning to center) so they can learn their roles in the system properly.  Once they're up to speed (which may be well into the 2019-20 season), Berglund becomes an afterthought... or fourth line center.

 

This season is a transitional season for the Sabres; at the end of it the hope is they will be competitive thereafter.  If Berglund can live up to the scenario in the post IKP made, that's bonus and maybe we'll actually be good this season.

 

But JBot can win this trade even if Berglund/Sobotka are worthless, if it turns out Thompson is a top six winger, especially if he meshes with Jack.

[That Aud Smell]

If that's real, and O'Reilly demanded a trade, then I give Jason Botterill a whole hell of a lot more leeway on trying to get a return on him than simply trying, and potentially failing, to improve this team by moving O'Reilly out of the blue.

 Much less unhappy about the haul if the alternative was him moping through the 1st 3 months of the season.

 

Everything that I'd heard and read about O'Reilly and the trade convinced me that JBOT was dealing from a significant position of weakness in dealing him. Those recently Tweeted statements serve to confirm that.

[TrueBlueGED]

It doesn't matter.

 

Seriously.

 

Berglund doesn't have to perform at a high level.  He just needs to eat up the tough minutes to shelter Casey (and possibly Samson if he's returning to center) so they can learn their roles in the system properly.  Once they're up to speed (which may be well into the 2019-20 season), Berglund becomes an afterthought... or fourth line center.

 

This season is a transitional season for the Sabres; at the end of it the hope is they will be competitive thereafter.  If Berglund can live up to the scenario in the post IKP made, that's bonus and maybe we'll actually be good this season.

 

But JBot can win this trade even if Berglund/Sobotka are worthless, if it turns out Thompson is a top six winger, especially if he meshes with Jack.

 

I mean, it would've been cool to see what O'Reilly would have looked like on Jack's wing. After all, his best offensive season was on Duchene's wing. But I understand we were in the midst of playoff contention and didn't want to change up what was working.

 

*screams into the nether*

 

To be clear, this snark isn't directed at you. It's just one of those things that I truly can't comprehend our coaches not getting a real look at as we plummet to the bottom of the standings the past two years.

[IKnowPhysics]

In response to IKP, I will say that comparing scoring across teams is really tricky. Here are two real players:

 

Player A:

P1/60: 2.12

CF%: 46.81

GF%: 55.56

xGF: 37.18

xGF%: 47.22

Zone-start ratio: 61.66

TOI% QoT: 29.59

CF% QoT: 49.17

TOI% QoC: 28.47

CF% QoC: 50.01

 

Player B

P1/60: 1.67

CF%: 49.03

GF%: 45.35

xGF: 37.18

xGF%: 47.62

Zone-start ratio: 60.55

TOI% QoT: 30.62

CF% QoT: 47.91

TOI% QoC: 29.48

CF% QoC: 50.1

 

Those usage numbers are incredibly close for players on different teams. Basically, both players were pretty sheltered and their coach tried to maximize the offensive situations they were put in. Player A, however, produced considerably more even strength scoring than player B. Given these numbers, you would think there would be a considerable even strength scoring dropoff of Player A's team if they swapped Player A out for Player B. I think that is a fair reading of the numbers. 

 

Player B is Jack Eichel. Player A? Well, that's none than our old friend, much-maligned Thomas Vanek! Raise your hand if you saw that coming. Vanek was 9th in the entire NHL in P1/60 among players skating at least 800 ES minutes. Yes, you're reading that correctly. Eichel was 46h. Swapping Eichel for Vanek would not only not be much of a dropoff by this metric, but it would be a drastic improvement. Is there a single person anywhere who would think it's a good idea to make such a move? Or that those metrics would translate straight to the ice surface? 

 

If Botterill and crew really are relying on analytics to drive decision-making, and their actions are based on a conclusion that swapping out O'Reilly for Berglund and Sobotka will be roughly the same on the ice....they need to fire their entire stats department.

 

Agreed, it's tricky, and a good reason why context is so important.  I disagree with the bold.  Eichel wasn't sheltered: only O'Reilly and Pommer had a higher CF QoC among regular forwards (ignoring Bailey), at 0.09.  Thomas Vanek was sheltered AF with a CF QoC of -0.18.  On average, Eichel was put into the OZ against the opponents' best players, moreso than others on the Sabres and produced a better CF%.  Vanek was put into the OZ against what was likely the opponents' bottom six.

 

No one trades Berglund for O'Reilly.  But the Sabres might think that Berglund could replace at least part of O'Reilly's even strength production.

[TrueBlueGED]

Everything that I'd heard and read about O'Reilly and the trade convinced me that JBOT was dealing from a significant position of weakness in dealing him. Those recently Tweeted statements serve to confirm that.

 

I disagree. O'Reilly wasn't going anywhere. Botterill could have held out if he wanted to. Again, look at the Duchene example. I respect the need to make a change if it simply has to be done, but it doesn't have to be done instantly when a guy is under contract.

[IKnowPhysics]

And the real analytics question left remaining: what the hell do they see in Tage Thompson that warrants this ?

 

Paul Hamilton

@pham1717

Thompson has said a couple of times that he's going to get a top 6 opportunity with the Sabres.

I disagree. O'Reilly wasn't going anywhere. Botterill could have held out if he wanted to. Again, look at the Duchene example. I respect the need to make a change if it simply has to be done, but it doesn't have to be done instantly when a guy is under contract.

 

Unless your owner doesn't want to shell out a $7.5M bonus to a grumpy puss.

[Randall Flagg]

If he did that, we might have only gotten a Duchene-level return for him. ;)

Combining what Duchene said vs. what ROR said, how bad the Avs were vs. how bad the Sabres were, how poorly Duchene played vs. how well ROR played, how cap dumps work for other teams (the Jets had to lose a driving bottom six player and picks to get Montreal to send back a no name prospect and take ONE YEAR of 4 million dollars) versus us taking what are by any description cap dumps, and the return we got versus the return the Avs got above despite "dealing from a position of weakness" and doing the unthinkable and bringing Duchene in to play next seasons's equivalent for a while and still turning it around, Botterill got played. He made his own game of chicken and backed himself into a corner over the course of a year and had no idea he played it. Doug schooled him. 

 

It would also suggest that maybe our analytics department worships and does analytics the wrong way a la Florida. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Doohickie]

People use to call Jim Kelly party boy, how did that turn out ?

 

The partying doesn't worry me as long as it's just a few Mickey Redmond Ginger Ales* and nothing more. 

 

But like I said earlier, I think Jack feels like he's near the pinnacle of his abilities and doesn't really have to work too hard to improve further (or at least may give off that impression based on his desire to have a good time and enjoy himself once in a while).  In one of Dahlin's interviews he states that he's never good enough and has to constantly work to improve (or words to that effect) and I think if he feels Jack could also improve by putting the work in, he won't be shy about letting him know.

 

 

*For those not familiar with Mickey, ginger ale is an old-time euphemism for beer, as in, "Aw coach, we didn't mean to break curfew.  We just went out for a few ginger ales!"

[Brawndo]

New Blues center Ryan O'Reilly: "I couldn't be happier going to St. Louis. I'm absolutely thrilled."

 

ROR on comments about losing passion last year: “I stand by them ... I wanted to personally do things different, be more honest. I stand by it ... I feel like I have a spark in me now. There’s something different. I don’t regret anything that’s happened.” #stlblues

[Doohickie]

Interesting comments.  Dahlin has not played in the NHL yet, but I predict he is going to be the real deal superstar as compared to Eichel's close but not quite there imitation of same.

 

Dahlin will also prove to be more valuable to the team, long term.  

 

A stud puck moving D-man who can play half a game just has a lot more impact on the game than a 1C, as important as a good 1C is as well.

 

I.E., I'd take Dahlin over McDavid if both were available in the same draft and I pick first.

 

Full agreement.

[TrueBlueGED]

Agreed, it's tricky, and a good reason why context is so important.  I disagree with the bold.  Eichel wasn't sheltered: only O'Reilly and Pommer had a higher CF QoC among regular forwards (ignoring Bailey), at 0.09.  Thomas Vanek was sheltered AF with a CF QoC of -0.18.  On average, Eichel was put into the OZ against the opponents' best players, moreso than others on the Sabres and produced a better CF%.  Vanek was put into the OZ against what was likely the opponents' bottom six.

 

No one trades Berglund for O'Reilly.  But the Sabres might think that Berglund could replace at least part of O'Reilly's even strength production.

 

I don't think those differences in usage are especially meaningful. They're really close. And we have to keep in mind we're only looking at faceoff starts here, not on the fly shift starts, which make up the majority of shift starts. Sadly, we don't have those numbers to look at. In any even, I think we can agree that Eichel's minutes are about to get considerably harder with ROR gone. I expect Berglund/Sobotka to eat some of those, but not all.

 

 

And the real analytics question left remaining: what the hell do they see in Tage Thompson that warrants this ######?

 

 

Unless your owner doesn't want to shell out a $7.5M bonus to a grumpy puss.

 

But then I'm really down on Pegula. I really hope that isn't the case.

 

Edit: WRT Tage...American-born NCAA player. Botts doesn't need stats to love him :p

 

Combining what Duchene said vs. what ROR said, how bad the Avs were vs. how bad the Sabres were, how poorly Duchene played vs. how well ROR played, how cap dumps work for other teams (the Jets had to lose a driving bottom six player and picks to get Montreal to send back a no name prospect and take ONE YEAR of 4 million dollars) versus us taking what are by any description cap dumps, and the return we got versus the return the Avs got above despite "dealing from a position of weakness" and doing the unthinkable and bringing Duchene in to play next seasons's equivalent for a while and still turning it around, Botterill got played. He made his own game of chicken and backed himself into a corner over the course of a year and had no idea he played it. Doug schooled him. 

 

It would also suggest that maybe our analytics department worships and does analytics the wrong way a la Florida. 

 

Right. Just because we have people who do stats doesn't mean they're any good at it. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by TrueBlueGED