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Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues


CallawaySabres

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Mostly a reader here, and I always appreciate your in-depth analysis and discussion Flagg, but in an effort to promote optimism, I just want to point out that your strong disapproval of this trade is grounded almost entirely in opinion.

 

My sense is you're being overcritical of Berglund/Sobotka (clear bottom 6 improvements) and undervaluing Tage as a prospect, who I'd now put number 3 in our pipeline behind Rasmus and Casey (ahead of Guhle and Alex). From what I've seen (admittedly limited but nearly all his international play), he's a big, smart power forward with a super quick and hard release - something we sorely lack in our paltry pipeline. He can possess the puck, is good around the net, and can drive play. The comparison to Zemgus is an odd one. Also, I do like the idea of a nucleus of young American forwards who can grow together at a time when US youth hockey is at its best.

 

Add another first and a second, and we can start to reconstruct an organization bereft of talent. It should have happened 5 years ago, but it didn't, and thats not on Bots watch.

 

I'm positive on:

  • the amount of draft capital we've accumulated
  • watching another skilled American forward grow in the NHL next year
  • an improved bottom 6, including a big smart Swede who can cycle and finish
  • an overhaul of the locker room dynamic, with the reigns now handed over to our franchise player
I did the work and we literally had the least productive not-top-six scorers of any team in the league. That's not subjective and that's what I was referring to by that first line.
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The Andy Strickland interview on WGR just now will make you feel better about the guys we're bringing in from STL (Hutton, Berglund, Sobotka, Thompson).  Not sure if there's still an "audio vault" or whatever, but hopefully they post it somehow.

They do have an audio vault still. Usually takes 15-30mins for them to post stuff. 

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My 2 cents:

 

- there has been plenty of sky-is-falling hyperbole in here but also plenty of excellent hockey talk.

 

- I think the TBPHD camp — ie those who wouldn’t have traded ROR for this package or really anything less than a socks-knocked-off offer — is well underestimating the impact of chemistry and interpersonal dynamics. It’s not just about the stats. What they’ve had for the past few years has clearly not worked. JB and PH are hockey lifers who were in a far better position than any of us to observe ROR and his impact on the rest of the team. I’m willing to accept their conclusion that they could not continue to have ROR on the team.

 

- there’s also quite a bit of premature judging of Thompson in here, along with declarations that he wasn’t a top prospect for STL. Dobberhockey, an excellent site, had him as their #3 prospect last fall (ahead of Kyrou and Dunn), and I saw a blues fan site that named him this spring as one of their “big 4.” So he certainly could turn into a very good young winger.

 

- Serious question for those unhappy with the trade: assuming this was in fact the best that could be obtained for ROR, and that any trade for a different Sabres core piece would have yielded a similarly disappointing return, would you have wanted to go into next season without having made a major “shakeup” trade?

Talking about chemistry, there is one group of players that had what I would call real chemistry over the last three years, and it was ROR with Reinhart. They are the only two skaters to post numbers together that you would also see on elite teams.
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I would call Fenton in Minnesota regarding Zucker or Nino, as he wants to shake up his core.

I think this is actually fairly likely. I don't think Botterill wants his rebuild of a rebuild to take years. We have a bunch of draft capital available and I have no doubt he intends to flip some of it for roster players.

 

When I look at the O'Reilly deal I see that 2019 1st and Thompson as the major pieces, with that 2019 first being trade bait. 

 

Josie said last night while we were out taking a walk that she "doesn't think Botterill has wiped yet." I agree. He's still...uh...making moves....

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The thing about all of Cartier, Baptiste, Bailey, Fasching and so many other prospects the Sabres have had recently is that they’re all noted to be solid at a lot of stuff but not great at anything.

 

Thompson is noted to have a wicked shot. If you’re at least great at something and competent elsewhere you often have a much better shot (no pun intended) at sticking in the league. Olofsson is another in this category. Ales Kotalik thrived with his shot.

 

Boterill is quoted as saying they have a lot of playmakers and they are looking to add shooters to the team.

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Isn't that what every team tries to do?

no. St.Louis just sacrificed depth to add 1 piece. Teams trade picks all the time to add 1 year or a half year of a player. Botterill is cleaning house, I am not sure I trust him but maybe he's actually looking at a bigger picture. 

Edited by Skurk Liger
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Talking about chemistry, there is one group of players that had what I would call real chemistry over the last three years, and it was ROR with Reinhart. They are the only two skaters to post numbers together that you would also see on elite teams.

You put Reinhart with Eichel and you will see this too.

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So I am trying to actually verify but I have read some things that Thompson has worked on his skating and it is improved. For me Thompson is the key to this deal and he has to work out. He does have a great shot so there is that. 

 

He looks like he has fabulous hands and a wicked shot.  It might not be so much about speed as it is about positioning and learning to stay on his pins.  I'm picturing a great big Vanek.

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You put Reinhart with Eichel and you will see this too.

Reinhart and Eichel played together a few times the last two years and were nothing like they were in 15-16, for what it's worth.

 

Eichel has been a drag on Sam where Sam and ROR both make each other better.

Edited by Randall Flagg
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Say what now?  We won't have that 3rd young player even near the roster until like 2024. A 2nd round pick needs 3 years post draft. A first round pick typically needs at least 2. So we won't have these 3 young players until 2021 and 2024 respectively to go along with Tage Thompson.

 

Good! I'm tired of short sighted thinking. This is almost all about filling in the cracks, as our core is pretty much set. Will ROR even be playing in three years? He might not be. Ill be a Sabres fan when those players are ready, won't you? This is a young league and this is a great move to ensure a steady flow of talent while the core is maturing. If I was going to try and establish a dynasty here around Jack and Dahlin, I'd want more players ready to go in about four years. Three first round picks next year?? Yes!

you could argue O'Reilly is more talented than the players they gave away....

But for how long? Are we really going to make a run at the cup while he is still good?

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Hey - White on WGR kept saying there's a rumour that he'll return to the KHL rather than play in Buffalo. Where's that coming from?

 

Ha!  That is so Because Buffalo!

 

If he does that, are we off the hook for his salary, cap-wise?  If so, I think I'm okay with that.

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I don't always agree with P Hamilton... but He's right, ROR was not a good leader.

But Eichel is? Risto? Housley? Reinhart? Bogo?

 

Everyone gets a free pass but OReilly.

 

The only issue with O'Reilly is that he hates losing too much and it eats away at him. Put him on a team with guys who are used to losing and it will certainly cause a rift in the lockeroom. To change the losing culture they needed more guys with his "hate to lose" attitude. Kane hated losing too. Now they're both gone... while the stink of the tank lives on... good luck with that.

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Ha!  That is so Because Buffalo!

 

If he does that, are we off the hook for his salary, cap-wise?  If so, I think I'm okay with that.

Which guy might go back to Russia?

But Eichel is? Risto? Housley? Reinhart? Bogo?

 

Everyone gets a free pass but OReilly.

 

The only issue with O'Reilly is that he hates losing too much and it eats away at him. Put him on a team with guys who are used to losing and it will certainly cause a rift in the lockeroom. To change the losing culture they needed more guys with his "hate to lose" attitude. Kane hated losing too. Now they're both gone... while the stink of the tank lives on... good luck with that.

Kane was a problem. 

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What a bunch of old bingo ladies.  This trade makes total sense.  Years of losing, and the last person here to fix it didn't get it done.  JBots is trying a new direction.  It's exactly what needs to happen if the Sabres are going to find a way out of the failure loop.  What sucks is that fans may have to wait and see what happens, but for a supposed "hockey town" many fans seem pretty impatient and fairly ignorant of what it takes to make a hockey team work.

Well, we've definitely been patient

 

Trading him away makes sense. Trading him for garbage does not

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