Buffalo Bills 2018-2019

[Eleven]

They are only locked in if they choose to be. Reload to maintain your position for next year while adding more guys for your system. They liked McCarron for some reason, and the run heavy system is manageable one more year. I think trading TT before you have a guy was short sighted but they can walk away if their guys is not available. Or not. They may pick someone no one ever considered and tell everyone he was the guy all along.

 

No, he was the only chair left when the music stopped.

[That Aud Smell]

No, he was the only chair left when the music stopped.

 

FWIW: Sal at WGR reported that the team never planned to be in on the FA QBs that garnered big deals.

 

I can't say that what Beane's been doing has struck me as willy nilly or ad hoc. The guy seems to have a plan.

 

Will it work? Who knows. The Jets have a 50-50 shot or slightly worse of having that #3 pick blow up in their face. (Even so - good on them for taking their shot.)

[Huckleberry]

FWIW: Sal at WGR reported that the team never planned to be in on the FA QBs that garnered big deals.

 

I can't say that what Beane's been doing has struck me as willy nilly or ad hoc. The guy seems to have a plan.

 

Will it work? Who knows. The Jets have a 50-50 shot or slightly worse of having that #3 pick blow up in their face. (Even so - good on them for taking their shot.)

 

Bill had at one point 36 mill in salary cap space, you can't spend 15 - 20 mill of that on the likes of bradford and bridgewater.

 

Saw a mock where rosen fell to #12, can't see that happen but if the jets pick mayfield I can see the bills trade up into top 10. 

No way dolphins let either mayfield or rosen drop to bills.

[JohnRobertEichel]

Interestingly enough, McCarron was once considered a mid-first to mid-second round prospect for the 2014 draft, but he dropped all the way down to the fifth round over character concerns (too confident), arm strength (not elite), and inflated stats (played on an all-star Alabama team). 2014 was a weird year for drafting QB's. Bortles and Manziel were taken ahead of Carr and Garoppolo. Our very own TE, Logan Thomas, was taken as a QB ahead of McCarron, who ended up being the 9th overall QB chosen.

 

I'm not at all convinced McCarron will be a worse QB than Taylor. Apparently many people on this message board have already written him off. McCarron seems like a guy with a floor as a capable NFL backup and a ceiling as a mid-tier NFL starter. After 4 years behind Dalton, he deserves a genuine chance at a starting job just like Taylor was given after 4 years behind Flacco.

 

Taylor has been in the NFL for 7 years and has started 42 games. The book has largely been written on this guy. Glorified running back. Gets sacked too often. Rarely turns the ball over because he rarely tries to make plays with his arm. Mentally too slow to read defenses and the entire field in real time. 31st overall passing offense. 3 points in a playoff game. Can't lead his team when down by any points in the 4th quarter. Slightly above 0.500 career record. Gets credit for breaking the 17-year drought, even though McCoy and the defense were way more responsible for that than Taylor.

 

At the moment, my first choice is for a trade-up for one of the top 4 franchise QB's (Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Allen in that order). But I also don't want the Giants or Browns to anally rape us in a trade. My second choice would be Lamar Jackson with one of our first round picks. Jackson's biggest problem is accuracy, but I think that can actually be fixed with some simple changes to his footwork and throwing mechanics. My third choice would be a trade with the Eagles for Foles. But my 4th choice is McCarron. Surround him with a quality team that includes 5 new top-65 overall picks from the 2018 draft, and you may easily see a second consecutive playoff berth and a decent run similar to what Foles did in Philly, Keenum in Minnesota, or Bortles in Jax.

[Rasmus_]

Just sit at 12 and take Jackson  :thumbsup:

 

Or just wait until 22 and draft Jackson.  Talk about a major reach at 12.  

[Eleven]

Interestingly enough, McCarron was once considered a mid-first to mid-second round prospect for the 2014 draft, but he dropped all the way down to the fifth round over character concerns (too confident), arm strength (not elite), and inflated stats (played on an all-star Alabama team). 2014 was a weird year for drafting QB's. Bortles and Manziel were taken ahead of Carr and Garoppolo. Our very own TE, Logan Thomas, was taken as a QB ahead of McCarron, who ended up being the 9th overall QB chosen.

 

I'm not at all convinced McCarron will be a worse QB than Taylor. Apparently many people on this message board have already written him off. McCarron seems like a guy with a floor as a capable NFL backup and a ceiling as a mid-tier NFL starter. After 4 years behind Dalton, he deserves a genuine chance at a starting job just like Taylor was given after 4 years behind Flacco.

 

Taylor has been in the NFL for 7 years and has started 42 games. The book has largely been written on this guy. Glorified running back. Gets sacked too often. Rarely turns the ball over because he rarely tries to make plays with his arm. Mentally too slow to read defenses and the entire field in real time. 31st overall passing offense. 3 points in a playoff game. Can't lead his team when down by any points in the 4th quarter. Slightly above 0.500 career record. Gets credit for breaking the 17-year drought, even though McCoy and the defense were way more responsible for that than Taylor.

 

At the moment, my first choice is for a trade-up for one of the top 4 franchise QB's (Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Allen in that order). But I also don't want the Giants or Browns to anally rape us in a trade. My second choice would be Lamar Jackson with one of our first round picks. Jackson's biggest problem is accuracy, but I think that can actually be fixed with some simple changes to his footwork and throwing mechanics. My third choice would be a trade with the Eagles for Foles. But my 4th choice is McCarron. Surround him with a quality team that includes 5 new top-65 overall picks from the 2018 draft, and you may easily see a second consecutive playoff berth and a decent run similar to what Foles did in Philly, Keenum in Minnesota, or Bortles in Jax.

 

I wrote him off as an NFL starter when he was at Alabama. 

[That Aud Smell]

I'm not at all convinced McCarron will be a worse QB than Taylor. 

 

I think it was reasonable for the Bills to conclude that they could get substantially the same production out of the QB position in 2018 by relying on McCarron/a rookie they select next month.

 

No one has a crystal ball. They may be a QB tire fire if they can't get one of the top-5 prospects and McCarron stinks. But I think it was a reasonable assessment of their assets and options.

 

My low-key biggest concern with the Bills is the RB position: I saw a stat to the effect that there are 6 RBs who are 29 or older in the league, and the Bills have 4 of them, or something.

 

Or just wait until 22 and draft Jackson.  Talk about a major reach at 12.  

 

Yeah - but you have to overpay for the QB position.

[Brawndo]

Miami might grab Jackson at 11.

 

Or Arizona might move up.

 

There is a mock draft out this morning that has the big four gone in the first five picks and Jackson gone at 11 to Miami. No other QBs are taken in the round

Or just wait until 22 and draft Jackson. Talk about a major reach at 12.

Any QB taken in the Top Five is a major reach this year. And they will probably go 1,2,3

 

Teams still need to over draft them.

 

Those that do not end up with TJ Graham and without Russell Wilson because they had a Fourth Round Grade on the latter

[That Aud Smell]

There is a mock draft out this morning that has the big four gone in the first five picks and Jackson gone at 11 to Miami. No other QBs are taken in the round

 

I have a bet with a guy in my FFB league -- stakes are a bottle of Woodford Reserve -- that Jackson will go before the #12 pick (whether the Bills have that pick or not). Initially, I had staked my claim as top-10 -- but then asked for the 11-spot as well.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is the list of recent QBs drafted

2017

1-2 Trubisky

1-10 Mahomes

1-12 Watson

2-52 Kizer

 

2016

1-1 Goff

1-2 Wentz

1-26 Paxton Lynch

 

2015

1-1 Winston

1-2 Mariota

 

2014

1-3 Bortles

1-22 Manziel

1-32 Bridgewater

2-36 D Carr

2-62 Garoppolo

 

2013

1-16 Manuel

2-39 Geno Smith

3-73 Mike Glennon

 

2012

1-1 Luck

1-2 RG3

1-8 Tannehill

1-22 Weeden

2-57 Osweiler

3-75 Wilson

4-102 Cousins

 

Conclusion. You can get your QB anywhere. The best QBs in 2012 were drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds. 2nd rd in 2014. Obviously drafting 1 or 2nd has nabbed good QBs of late, but we aren’t drafting there and after that it looks like a crap shoot.

 

If I’m the Bills I do what the Redskins did in 2012. I’m drafting Rudolph at 12 and then grabbing Luke Falk with our later 3rd rd pick. He is the real sleeper QB like Cousins was in 2012.

[North Buffalo]

On TBD copy of tweet stating Dan Patrick said Beane/ Bills calling Browns about number 1 pick... may be smoke screen but interesting how Beane works and leaks info.

Edited March 19, 2018 by North Buffalo

[That Aud Smell]

Conclusion. You can get your QB anywhere. The best QBs in 2012 were drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds. 2nd rd in 2014. Obviously drafting 1 or 2nd has nabbed good QBs of late, but we aren’t drafting there and after that it looks like a crap shoot.

 

If I’m the Bills I do what the Redskins did in 2012. I’m drafting Rudolph at 12 and then grabbing Luke Falk with our later 3rd rd pick. He is the real sleeper QB like Cousins was in 2012.

 

That's a somewhat small sample size. 

 

It's been established upthread that, while "chance" or good fortune is always an element, your odds improve markedly if you select a QB toward the top of the draft.

 

That said, I don't hate, and sorta like, your (tweaked) suggestion of getting the BPA at 12, taking Rudolph at 22, and then picking a sleeper in round 3 or 4. They certainly have the picks to do it.

On TBD copy of tweet stating Dan Patrick said Beane/ Bills calling Browns about number 1 pick... may be smoke screen but interesting how Beane works and leaks info.

 

That is interesting -- especially since the leaks out of OBD have all but stopped under McBeane.

[GASabresIUFAN]

That's a somewhat small sample size. 

 

It's been established upthread that, while "chance" or good fortune is always an element, your odds improve markedly if you select a QB toward the top of the draft.

 

That said, I don't hate, and sorta like, your (tweaked) suggestion of getting the BPA at 12, taking Rudolph at 22, and then picking a sleeper in round 3 or 4. They certainly have the picks to do it.

 

That is interesting -- especially since the leaks out of OBD have all but stopped under McBeane.

Sadly I don’t think, especially with SD and AZ also looking for a QB, that Rudolph lasts to 22 anymore. If we want him, and assuming Miami doesn’t take a QB at 11, we are going to have to take him at 12. That’s OK we are still going to get a good player at 22 to fill a hole and we keep pur draft intact.

[inkman]

anally rape

This seems overly graphic

[That Aud Smell]

Sadly I don’t think, especially with SD and AZ also looking for a QB, that Rudolph lasts to 22 anymore. If we want him, and assuming Miami doesn’t take a QB at 11, we are going to have to take him at 12. That’s OK we are still going to get a good player at 22 to fill a hole and we keep pur draft intact.

 

Man - talk about inflation of value.

 

That's how it goes, though.

 

This seems overly graphic

 

I had a similar reaction when people were casually dropping the epithet "POS" around here.

 

The modern condition seems to involve the increasingly casual use of verbal hand grenades -- until, it seems, language just loses its meaning.

 

Either that, or I am just getting old.

[inkman]

Man - talk about inflation of value.

 

That's how it goes, though.

 

 

I had a similar reaction when people were casually dropping the epithet "POS" around here.

 

The modern condition seems to involve the increasingly casual use of verbal hand grenades -- until, it seems, language just loses its meaning.

 

Either that, or I am just getting old.

Maybe it's the proliferation of porn but my mind immediately go to the visual image of the old salami riding down the Hershey highway where the poster seems to be just using it as a phrase.

[That Aud Smell]

Maybe it's the proliferation of porn but my mind immediately go to the visual image of the old salami riding down the Hershey highway where the poster seems to be just using it as a phrase.

 

Yeah. It remains a strong and graphic phrase for me.

[Taro T]

Interestingly enough, McCarron was once considered a mid-first to mid-second round prospect for the 2014 draft, but he dropped all the way down to the fifth round over character concerns (too confident), arm strength (not elite), and inflated stats (played on an all-star Alabama team). 2014 was a weird year for drafting QB's. Bortles and Manziel were taken ahead of Carr and Garoppolo. Our very own TE, Logan Thomas, was taken as a QB ahead of McCarron, who ended up being the 9th overall QB chosen.

 

I'm not at all convinced McCarron will be a worse QB than Taylor. Apparently many people on this message board have already written him off. McCarron seems like a guy with a floor as a capable NFL backup and a ceiling as a mid-tier NFL starter. After 4 years behind Dalton, he deserves a genuine chance at a starting job just like Taylor was given after 4 years behind Flacco.

 

Taylor has been in the NFL for 7 years and has started 42 games. The book has largely been written on this guy. Glorified running back. Gets sacked too often. Rarely turns the ball over because he rarely tries to make plays with his arm. Mentally too slow to read defenses and the entire field in real time. 31st overall passing offense. 3 points in a playoff game. Can't lead his team when down by any points in the 4th quarter. Slightly above 0.500 career record. Gets credit for breaking the 17-year drought, even though McCoy and the defense were way more responsible for that than Taylor.

 

At the moment, my first choice is for a trade-up for one of the top 4 franchise QB's (Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Allen in that order). But I also don't want the Giants or Browns to anally rape us in a trade. My second choice would be Lamar Jackson with one of our first round picks. Jackson's biggest problem is accuracy, but I think that can actually be fixed with some simple changes to his footwork and throwing mechanics. My third choice would be a trade with the Eagles for Foles. But my 4th choice is McCarron. Surround him with a quality team that includes 5 new top-65 overall picks from the 2018 draft, and you may easily see a second consecutive playoff berth and a decent run similar to what Foles did in Philly, Keenum in Minnesota, or Bortles in Jax.

Haven't written him off, though haven't bought in yet either, but REALLY HATE that the highest floor of any of the guys we expect to see in training camp is "capabale backup" when the Bills had a floor of legit, but flawed, starter on the roster.

[That Aud Smell]

Haven't written him off, though haven't bought in yet either, but REALLY HATE that the highest floor of any of the guys we expect to see in training camp is "capabale backup" when the Bills had a floor of legit, but flawed, starter on the roster.

 

I reckon there is something to this. I'm holding out hope, though, that a journeyman starter/backup can readily replace Taylor's overall value. My hope is that McCarron would be able to do the dull and ordinary things that often eluded Taylor (because McCarron sure as hell isn't replacing Taylor's freakish athleticism). 

 

Not for nothing: If the Bills were to pick a QB in round 1, they'd have someone in camp with a floor higher than capable backup. Maybe I missed your point there, though.

[TrueBlueGED]

I think it was reasonable for the Bills to conclude that they could get substantially the same production out of the QB position in 2018 by relying on McCarron/a rookie they select next month.

 

No one has a crystal ball. They may be a QB tire fire if they can't get one of the top-5 prospects and McCarron stinks. But I think it was a reasonable assessment of their assets and options.

 

 

 

It was definitely a reasonable conclusion. However, I think what Taylor gave last year is the wrong baseline. The baseline should have been what Taylor is capable of doing in an offense built with his strengths in mind and with weapons to match. I don't think replacing that production is quite so simple. I also (reasonably, IMO) believe that going into the year with McCarron as starter is probably Plan K. 

 

The flaw in the QB process was the assumption inherent in last year's trade down that we would just be able to move up for who we wanted in this year's draft. 

Here is the list of recent QBs drafted

snip

 

Conclusion. You can get your QB anywhere. The best QBs in 2012 were drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds. 2nd rd in 2014. Obviously drafting 1 or 2nd has nabbed good QBs of late, but we aren’t drafting there and after that it looks like a crap shoot.

 

If I’m the Bills I do what the Redskins did in 2012. I’m drafting Rudolph at 12 and then grabbing Luke Falk with our later 3rd rd pick. He is the real sleeper QB like Cousins was in 2012.

 

Of course you can, but you probably won't. Comprehensive studies have pretty conclusively shown that your odds of getting a good QB after round 2 fall off a cliff to the point where you may as well not even try.

Edited March 19, 2018 by TrueBlueGED

[North Buffalo]

Speaking of which, any small school/ tier II QBs out there worth taking a flyer on in a later round in case Bills dont hit on first round pick. Bills imo may want to draft two till they find one QB

[Drunkard]

The real reason they signed McCarron.

 

https://goo.gl/images/SNDHSh

The circumstantial evidence continues to mount.

[Brawndo]

Speaking of which, any small school/ tier II QBs out there worth taking a flyer on in a later round in case Bills dont hit on first round pick. Bills imo may want to draft two till they find one QB

Kyle Lauletta and Mike White but they will probably be overdrafted

 

It’s also possible that the Browns are leaking who has called about Number One

Edited March 19, 2018 by Brawndo

[Taro T]

I reckon there is something to this. I'm holding out hope, though, that a journeyman starter/backup can readily replace Taylor's overall value. My hope is that McCarron would be able to do the dull and ordinary things that often eluded Taylor (because McCarron sure as hell isn't replacing Taylor's freakish athleticism). 

 

Not for nothing: If the Bills were to pick a QB in round 1, they'd have someone in camp with a floor higher than capable backup. Maybe I missed your point there, though.

That ISN'T a given. It definitely isn't if they spend 22 on a QB. But isn't a given if they move up to take Allen either. I'd expect that Mayfield & Rosen will be much more than capable backups, but AT THIS MOMENT, even their floors are likely capable backup.

 

While it's doubtful that Polian ever legitimately considered Leaf over Manning, there were many talking heads that wanted Leaf. He wasn't even a capable backup.

[Huckleberry]

Kyle Lauletta and Mike White but they will probably be overdrafted

 

It’s also possible that the Browns are leaking who has called about Number One

 

If you go round 3 or after, I'd go Shimonek.