Predictions for 2017-18 Season

[Taro T]

unfortunately, there is a $5million reason to dress him. Though, I won't be surprised to see him in the press box as the healthy scratch quite often.

Not really. The Sabres don't have an undercapitalized owner (90's vintage Knoxes, Rigas) nor an owner that sets tighter financial constraints than required by league rules (Golisano).

 

If Pegula's primary goal is winning, he'll eat the $5MM in the press box, in Ra-cha-cha, or on LTIR after an errant Gorges slapper misses Tennyson and pops Moulson in the mug.

Edited September 27, 2017 by Taro T

[Crusader1969]

Not really. The Sabres don't have an undercapitalized owner (90's vintage Knoxes, Rigas) nor an owner that sets tighter financial constraints than required by league rules (Golisano).

 

If Pegula's primary goal is winning, he'll eat the $5MM in the press box, in Ra-cha-cha, or on LTIR after an errant Gorges slapper misses Tennyson and pops Moulson in the mug.

 

 

if that was true, he'd have spent more time in the pressbox last year, once Jack returned and Moulson was no longer needed on the PP.

 

NOT saying I wouldn't prefer Moulson off the ice, though not sure the Sabres have the LW depth to fill his spot at the moment. 

[Taro T]

if that was true, he'd have spent more time in the pressbox last year, once Jack returned and Moulson was no longer needed on the PP.

 

NOT saying I wouldn't prefer Moulson off the ice, though not sure the Sabres have the LW depth to fill his spot at the moment.

 

Not really. Bylsma ROUTINELY has Moulson the 1st forechecker in when his line dumped the puck. Dan had no friggin' clue how to deploy talent so there is no reason to think that finances factored into personnel decisions.

[dudacek]

Sam Reinhart and Victor Antipin disappoint early but are among our better players down the stretch

Justin Bailey makes the team but fails to make an impact

Benoit Pouliot and Jacob Josefson disappoint as well; Jason Pominville though is pretty good on Jacks wing

Marco Scandella is plagued by poor health; he's good, but he doesn't play enough

Zach Bogosian picks up the slack with a career year

Alex Nylander comes up in the new year and produces

Robin Lehner is good enough for some, not good enough for others

The Sabres, led by Eichel's top five finish in points are one of the league's better scoring teams

The playoffs are decided in March by our games against the Leafs

Edited September 27, 2017 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

And the other parts of that post?

Sorry - I thought that first part was the only part directed at me. 

 

My overall point was that that was a good lineup that day, because of how effective at ES the ROR line was, and the fact that Kane-Eichel actually had a good (offensive) season together. Those two games were the TEAM's best efforts, or top 5, on the season, though they were also some of Jack's best games, he had 3G and 4 points in them and we knocked out Ottawa on the road and a very hot NYR team that had spent the past six years destroying us. 

[Crusader1969]

i still look at Buffalo's 3rd line and come away pretty unimpressed. I believe in Samson as a center and think he will be extremely good for the Sabres but his line-mates don't inspire much confidence.

 

just compare to Toronto's Top 9 and there is no doubt we are behind them at the moment.  The good thing about Toronto is that they are already playing with all their top players, I don't believe they have anyone who is in the minors that could eventually push for a top 9 spot. While Sabres have 3 (if not 4) who should push into the top 9 next year.  Speaking of 18/19 who knows if they can afford to keep JVR and Bozak with Marner, Matthews and Nylander up for big paydays in the near future?

[GASabresIUFAN]

I have argued that our bottom 2 forward lines are very week, but I wanted to compare them to the last time the Sabres were truly good. So I went and looked at the 2005-6 team and it really drove the point home.

 

In 2005-6 our top 12 forwards were Briere, Drury, Pominville, Hecht, Grier, Gaustad, Connolly, Kotalik, Dumont,Vanek, Roy, and Afinogenov. Our 3rd line was Vanek Roy and Max.

 

We are now looking at a 3rd line of Pouliot, Reinhart and Griffith. Not exactly the same quality talent wise.

 

One other note. We traded 29 year old top 6 forward Pommers to Minn over 4 years ago. We have now re-acquired 34 year old Pommers and he is still in our top 6. What does that say about our rebuild?

Edited September 27, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Crusader1969]

I have argued that our bottom 2 forward lines are very week, but I wanted to compare them to the last time the Sabres were truly good. So I went and looked at the 2005-6 team and it really drove the point home.

 

In 2005-6 our top 12 forwards were Briere, Drury, Pominville, Hecht, Grier, Gaustad, Connolly, Kotalik, Dumont,Vanek, Roy, and Afinogenov. Our 3rd line was Vanek Roy and Max.

 

We are now looking at a 3rd line of Pouliot, Reinhart and Griffith. Not exactly the same quality talent wise.

 

One other note. We traded 29 year old top 6 forward Pommers to Minn over 4 years ago. We have now re-acquired 34 year old Pommers and he is still in our top 6. What does that say about our rebuild?

 

 

I think it means we still have at least one more year to put up with a mediocre hockey team.

[dudacek]

I have argued that our bottom 2 forward lines are very week, but I wanted to compare them to the last time the Sabres were truly good. So I went and looked at the 2005-6 team and it really drove the point home.

 

In 2005-6 our top 12 forwards were Briere, Drury, Pominville, Hecht, Grier, Gaustad, Connolly, Kotalik, Dumont,Vanek, Roy, and Afinogenov. Our 3rd line was Vanek Roy and Max.

 

We are now looking at a 3rd line of Pouliot, Reinhart and Griffith. Not exactly the same quality talent wise.

 

One other note. We traded 29 year old top 6 forward Pommers to Minn over 4 years ago. We have now re-acquired 34 year old Pommers and he is still in our top 6. What does that say about our rebuild?

 

To be fair, Pommer was — at worst — our second or third best player (Vanek, Miller) when he was traded.

Today, he is — at best — our tenth-best player (Eichel, ROR, Okposo, Kane, Reinhart, Ristolainen, Scandella, McCabe, Lehner)

[Doohickie]

I have argued that our bottom 2 forward lines are very week, but I wanted to compare them to the last time the Sabres were truly good. So I went and looked at the 2005-6 team and it really drove the point home.

 

In 2005-6 our top 12 forwards were Briere, Drury, Pominville, Hecht, Grier, Gaustad, Connolly, Kotalik, Dumont,Vanek, Roy, and Afinogenov. Our 3rd line was Vanek Roy and Max.

 

We are now looking at a 3rd line of Pouliot, Reinhart and Griffith. Not exactly the same quality talent wise.

 

One other note. We traded 29 year old top 6 forward Pommers to Minn over 4 years ago. We have now re-acquired 34 year old Pommers and he is still in our top 6. What does that say about our rebuild?

 

The rebuild is still a work in progress.  He's a quality piece that starts out in the Top Six, but one would hope would be supplanted in the near term by one of the AHL wingers.  Unlike XGMTM who threw the kids in at the NHL level right away (and possibly hurting their development), JBot is taking a more measured approach that doesn't sacrifice the future at the expense of the present.  We'd like to see the younger players in the NHL NOW, but we'll see a better product on the ice a year, two, three down the road if the Sabres patiently and properly develop their prospects.  A few months in, JBot and Housley apparently don't feel the kids are ready to function at a high level, so they've pulled together the best veteran placeholders they could find and will probably continue to tweak the roster this year.

 

It's painful to watch Toronto vault past us, but it's good that Sabres ownership recognized that the course laid out by XGMTM was not working.  Better to cut our losses now so we can get on a path to success.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The rebuild is still a work in progress.  He's a quality piece that starts out in the Top Six, but one would hope would be supplanted in the near term by one of the AHL wingers.  Unlike XGMTM who threw the kids in at the NHL level right away (and possibly hurting their development), JBot is taking a more measured approach that doesn't sacrifice the future at the expense of the present.  We'd like to see the younger players in the NHL NOW, but we'll see a better product on the ice a year, two, three down the road if the Sabres patiently and properly develop their prospects.  A few months in, JBot and Housley apparently don't feel the kids are ready to function at a high level, so they've pulled together the best veteran placeholders they could find and will probably continue to tweak the roster this year.

 

It's painful to watch Toronto vault past us, but it's good that Sabres ownership recognized that the course laid out by XGMTM was not working.  Better to cut our losses now so we can get on a path to success.

i don't disagree with Jbot's approach at all.  I am just pointing out that the rebuild has miles to go before it is successful and the team is truly competitive.  It should be noted that Regier acquired Teppo and Lydman right before that season to solidify an developing internal group of Tallinder, Kalinin, McKee and Campbell.  Looking back on it, that team had a truly amazing D group.  Could the additions of Scandella and Baloo (and Antipin?) have a similar effect now?

Edited September 27, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Pokey Jones]

There is one consistent element to the Leafs rebuild. All their young players are fast. Some of them are really fast. 

 

Speed is what the league is about now. Leafs got this before we got this. JBot/Housley get this but they have to work with what they have for now. 

 

Here's the disconnect. We, as fans, wanted a rebuild like Toronto got.We feel like we were supposed to be them. Most of us are tired of waiting and want playoffs now. For them however, this is year ONE of a new rebuild. They will impose their system, get the players they have who best fit that system and slowly remove the ones who don't. So unless a bunch of guys step up and "fit" (which at this point doesn't seem to be the case) you can expect a step (maybe a big one) backwards before moving forwards. 

 

Now MAYBE a change in philosophy is enough, like Cassidy in Boston who moved them from Julien's outdated ideas to the new nhl way and it can turn quicker, but I don't think we have the talent to do that, or maybe to say it better the RIGHT KIND OF TALENT to do that instantly. Hope I'm wrong on that, hope they surprise.

 

My feeling however, is that we will take a big step backwards this year and the team we see at the end of the year will barely resemble the one that starts the year. I also firmly believe, however, that we are finally on the right track, we just have a longer way to go than we would like.

[Derrico]

You know, I'm glad those leaf games happened. Many, myself included were probably too optimistic last week. However I think this has spun the pendulum way too far the other way.

[Doohickie]

i don't disagree with Jbot's approach at all.  I am just pointing out that the rebuild has miles to go before it is successful and the team is truly competitive.  It should be noted that Regier acquired Teppo and Lydman right before that season to solidify an developing internal group of Tallinder, Kalinin, McKee and Campbell.  Looking back on it, that team had a truly amazing D group.  Could the additions of Scandella and Baloo (and Antipin?) have a similar effect now?

 

I've had the same thought, but also wonder about the veteran forwards.  Will they round out the forward lines?  There's been a lot of disappointment in the bottom six, but maybe they will work well together.  One of JBot's hallmarks seems to be identifying diamonds in the rough.  Maybe Griffith or Josefson or one of these "placeholder" guys will form tremendous chemistry with Samson or Larry and light it up much more than expected.  And if that happens, it will light a fire under the young guys in the AHL.  They will see that they're not entitled to a spot on a rebuilding team; they need to earn it (and will work harder to get up to the NHL). 

 

Things could be very disappointing this year, but they might also be unexpectedly good.

[MattPie]

There is one consistent element to the Leafs rebuild. All their young players are fast. Some of them are really fast. 

 

Speed is what the league is about now. Leafs got this before we got this. JBot/Housley get this but they have to work with what they have for now. 

 

Here's the disconnect. We, as fans, wanted a rebuild like Toronto got.We feel like we were supposed to be them. Most of us are tired of waiting and want playoffs now. For them however, this is year ONE of a new rebuild. They will impose their system, get the players they have who best fit that system and slowly remove the ones who don't. So unless a bunch of guys step up and "fit" (which at this point doesn't seem to be the case) you can expect a step (maybe a big one) backwards before moving forwards. 

 

Now MAYBE a change in philosophy is enough, like Cassidy in Boston who moved them from Julien's outdated ideas to the new nhl way and it can turn quicker, but I don't think we have the talent to do that, or maybe to say it better the RIGHT KIND OF TALENT to do that instantly. Hope I'm wrong on that, hope they surprise.

 

My feeling however, is that we will take a big step backwards this year and the team we see at the end of the year will barely resemble the one that starts the year. I also firmly believe, however, that we are finally on the right track, we just have a longer way to go than we would like.

 

Toronto was bad for several years while the Sabres were trying to be good. They're on like year 4 or 5 of their rebuild. Someone upthread posted about that many of their good players now were top-10 picks. That's why they're ahead. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly are all top-5 picks in the last 5 years. The Sabres last 3 are Eichel, Reinhart, and Vanek, and before that Turgeon? The Maple Leafs were bad for years, stock piled talent, and have had a great coach for the last two years. They are at least a year, if not 2 or 3 ahead of the Sabres in rebuild.

[#freejame]

Toronto has won 19 playoff series since the Sabres came into the NHL and have made the playoffs twice since 2005. Toronto should have a good hockey team, they've sucked for over a decade and arguably, since the league expanded from six. Everyone needs to stop comparing us to Toronto, they've had much less success this millennia than us so they should have better young talent. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Toronto has won 19 playoff series since the Sabres came into the NHL and have made the playoffs twice since 2005. Toronto should have a good hockey team, they've sucked for over a decade and arguably, since the league expanded from six. Everyone needs to stop comparing us to Toronto, they've had much less success this millennia than us so they should have better young talent. 

 

They were in the CF twice (if I recall correctly) since last winning the cup in 1967 and have been terrible for most of that time.  That is almost my entire lifetime.

[Taro T]

They were in the CF twice (if I recall correctly) since last winning the cup in 1967 and have been terrible for most of that time.  That is almost my entire lifetime.

You're forgetting 1 trip to the semis, but it WAS rather forgettable. ;)

[Pokey Jones]

I'm not sure that depiction of the Leafs rebuild is accurate. Sure they sucked for a long while but they didn't stockpile anything. The current rebuild comes after they ditch Burke. You take their reset and move forward with the trade of Kessel and Phaneuf (basically all their vets) and their tank to get Matthews and you compare it to our tank to get Eichel and forward from that. If you do that, its a simplistic argument, they win. 

[Thorny]

I have argued that our bottom 2 forward lines are very week, but I wanted to compare them to the last time the Sabres were truly good. So I went and looked at the 2005-6 team and it really drove the point home.

In 2005-6 our top 12 forwards were Briere, Drury, Pominville, Hecht, Grier, Gaustad, Connolly, Kotalik, Dumont,Vanek, Roy, and Afinogenov. Our 3rd line was Vanek Roy and Max.

We are now looking at a 3rd line of Pouliot, Reinhart and Griffith. Not exactly the same quality talent wise.

One other note. We traded 29 year old top 6 forward Pommers to Minn over 4 years ago. We have now re-acquired 34 year old Pommers and he is still in our top 6. What does that say about our rebuild?

That the player we got from tanking is so damn good he can carry Pominville's old asz around?

[LGR4GM]

One other note. We traded 29 year old top 6 forward Pommers to Minn over 4 years ago. We have now re-acquired 34 year old Pommers and he is still in our top 6. What does that say about our rebuild?

It's still on going. 4 years ago we trade Pomminstein. So that means that everyone drafted after the first round realistically we should know if they are going or have made the nhl. That falls in the 3-5 year time frame for prospect development. The issue is that we are talking about 1 draft. I am only listing players with chances to make the NHL not everyone from the draft class.

 

In the 2013 draft we took Risto, Compher, Zadorov, Bailey, Baptiste. Those are the big names we all know. Zadorov and Compher went out so ROR could come in. Risto is a defender and is good. Bailey and Baptiste are on the cusp or either being career AHL players or making the NHL.  So we have 2 possible Pominville replacements from that draft. Will they equal his production, idk. I think the trend towards that 5 year timeline due to coaching turnovers in Buffalo.

 

In 2014 we drafted Sam Reinhart, Cornel, Lemiuex, Olofsson and let's toss in Karabacek. The 2014 draft was not great for really anyone. Outside of the first round things are really hit and miss. Now this draft is 3 years in, so they are right at the point of knowing. Lemieux is gone. Cornel has shown flashes but needs at least 2 years in Rochester and probably won't make it. Reinhart can and has played Pommers position and done so quite nicely. Sam has scored more goals than Jason each of the last two years. Olofsson is still in Europe but looks pretty good. I hope to see him in Buffalo next season.

 

In 2015 we drafted Eichel, Guhle and then all the defenders. I think Murray traded away too much from this draft.  Eichel and Guhle however look good. Everyone after them accept Estaphan was a defender. No RW replacement there.

 

In 2016 we drafted Nylander, Asplund, Pu, Fitzgerald and Glotov. Now outside of Fitzgerald (D), Nylander, Asplund, Pu and Glotov are all still playing in other leagues. They haven't had the time to replace Pommers yet. They have had 1 post draft year and as I have indicated you need at least 3 outside the first round. Nylander then would be the only one close. 

 

2017 we draft Mittelstadt, Davidsson, and the GT with 3 Names. Neither of those players will be ready to go this year. Mittelstadt will be 1-2 years. Davidsson 3-5 and Goalie 4-6.  They clearly haven't had the time to replace Pominville either. 

 

What does all this mean? It means that realistically the impact of the tank is still being felt. I think we have drafted Pominville's replacement but I don't think Bailey will every be Jason in his prime (30goals, 35+ assists) but I think that Reinhart can be that (25g and 40+ assists).  Time will tell but it shoudn't really surprise us that we haven't drafted his replacement yet. We are actually seeing how piss poor Darcy was at drafting forwards from 2009-2013. Our best forward drafted in that time frame was Zemgus, Foligno, or Kassian. I suppose you could include Armia. Out of those guys though, 3 have been traded away. It was always going to be hard to replace Jason and as we can see we still haven't seen if we did that. Hitting on a 2nd rounder with Pommers abilities is rare but Asplund, Pu, maybe even Bailey or Baptiste are possible guys who can take over that 2nd line RW role within the next 2-4 years. Prospect just take a lot of time. It is why you shouldn't continually trade 1st and 2nd round picks, you gotta keep them and hit on them. 

Edited September 28, 2017 by LGR4GM

[Drunkard]

Toronto was bad for several years while the Sabres were trying to be good. They're on like year 4 or 5 of their rebuild. Someone upthread posted about that many of their good players now were top-10 picks. That's why they're ahead. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly are all top-5 picks in the last 5 years. The Sabres last 3 are Eichel, Reinhart, and Vanek, and before that Turgeon? The Maple Leafs were bad for years, stock piled talent, and have had a great coach for the last two years. They are at least a year, if not 2 or 3 ahead of the Sabres in rebuild.

 

That's kind of splitting hairs based on the arbitrary cutoff of top 5. If you change it to top 10 it then includes Ristolainen and Mittelstadt for us. If you change it to top 12 you include Grigorenko and Myers and if you change it to top 14  (the old playoff line before Vegas entered the league) and you can also tack Girgensons on to the list.

[LGR4GM]

That's kind of splitting hairs based on the arbitrary cutoff of top 5. If you change it to top 10 it then includes Ristolainen and Mittelstadt for us. If you change it to top 12 you include Grigorenko and Myers and if you change it to top 14  (the old playoff line before Vegas entered the league) and you can also tack Girgensons on to the list.

If you change it to top 10 it does not include Casey, he isn't in the NHL yet. 

[Marions Piazza]

There is one consistent element to the Leafs rebuild. All their young players are fast. Some of them are really fast. 

 

Speed is what the league is about now. Leafs got this before we got this. JBot/Housley get this but they have to work with what they have for now. 

 

Here's the disconnect. We, as fans, wanted a rebuild like Toronto got.We feel like we were supposed to be them. Most of us are tired of waiting and want playoffs now. For them however, this is year ONE of a new rebuild. They will impose their system, get the players they have who best fit that system and slowly remove the ones who don't. So unless a bunch of guys step up and "fit" (which at this point doesn't seem to be the case) you can expect a step (maybe a big one) backwards before moving forwards. 

 

Now MAYBE a change in philosophy is enough, like Cassidy in Boston who moved them from Julien's outdated ideas to the new nhl way and it can turn quicker, but I don't think we have the talent to do that, or maybe to say it better the RIGHT KIND OF TALENT to do that instantly. Hope I'm wrong on that, hope they surprise.

 

My feeling however, is that we will take a big step backwards this year and the team we see at the end of the year will barely resemble the one that starts the year. I also firmly believe, however, that we are finally on the right track, we just have a longer way to go than we would like.

as in, they will have less than 78 points than they did last year, or do you mean they will start off god awful and then make an heroic run to 9th?

 

maybe its because i am an optimist when it comes to the Sabres, but, i think they come out flying right out of the gate.  Eichel will have a huge chip on his shoulder and is going to want to prove he's worth the contract he wants.  Barring any catastrophic injuries like last year, I don't see why we can't win 8-10 more games than last year and push for the playoffs

[Drunkard]

If you change it to top 10 it does not include Casey, he isn't in the NHL yet. 

 

Fake News! Mittelstadt is not only in the NHL, he's already the best player in NHL history (suck it Gretzky!). It's just that he's kind of busy kicking ass and taking names in Afghanistan and North Korea right now.