Sabres Prospects 2017-2018

[GASabresIUFAN]

Great breakdown GA.

 

One question:  why do the Sabres need to sign Asplund now?  As a 2016 draftee, the Sabres wouldn't lose his rights yet, innit?

 

I'd also have DOR and CJ at #4, but that's just an optimistic guess.

I believe his SHL contract comes to an end after this season, and according to published reports prior to this season, he and Jbot agreed one more year in the SHL would be best for him.  http://buffalonews.com/2017/06/08/report-talking-sabres-rasmus-asplund-will-stay-sweden/

[SabresFanInRochester]

At this point who are the Sabres best “prospects” and when will they arrive in the NHL. I’m defining “ prospects” for this discussion to players in the organization that aren’t currently in the NHL. This may include players over 23.

 

1) Mittlestadt. I think he is the clear no. 1 prospect and it’s between him and Guhle as our best player not in the NHL. His WJR performance emphasized his huge upside. I personally think he’ll return to college for one more year, but Jbot may want him under contract asap. Either way, I don’t think it’s in his best interest to play in the NHL next season. One more year of physical maturity would likely do him wonders. NHL arrival date: 2019-20 season.

 

2) Guhle. Every callup shows that he can play in the NHL now, but I think Jbot has been correct leaving him in Roch to develop, gain confidence and not be jaded by the mess in Buffalo. He’ll certainly be in our top 6 next fall and maybe our top 4. NHL arrival date: 2018-19 season.

 

3) Ullmark. A 2012 draft pick who has paid his dues and has played well, like Guhle, every call up. The only question is does Jbot see him as the starter or backup in Buffalo next season. I’d like to see him as the starter. NHL arrival date: 2018-19 season.

 

4) Asplund. Swedish import who needs to signed this off-season. Playmaking center projects as a 2nd or 3rd line center. One of Farjestads (SHL) youngest players and currently their 2nd line center. He’ll likely need at least one year to adjust to the NA game. I think his presence in Roch next season could be a huge aid to former Wjr teammate Nylander. We have time here as Rasmus doesn’t turn 21 until Dec. If both he and Guhle develop into good NHL players, they will be failed GMTM grestest legacy to the Sabres. NHL arrival date: 2019-20 season at earliest.

 

5) Nylander. This next season is going to be a make or break season for Nylander. The talent is there, but is the will. Having fellow Swedes Asplund and maybe Olofsson on the Amerks next season may help him. We may be able to chalk up this bad season to injuries. He has played better of late and is on a 3 game point streak. Also of note is his two way game has improved with a very noticeable drop in his +/- from - 24 last season to -3 this year. If he can find his game early next year, he could earn a long-term callup as Buffalo really needs his speed and hands. NHL arrival: 2019-20, but maybe as early as midseason 2018-19.

 

6) Olofsson. Another smallish forward and former 7th rd pick in 2014. He’ll be 23 at the start of next season and will likely need at least one year in the AHL to adjust to the NA game, but he could be another Antipin and have to be on the NHL roster. This kid is a scorer and despite his size he has proven that he will play in the dirty areas to score. (Maybe he can teach that to Nylander next season). I actually think he might compete for an NHL roster spot even if he could be sent to Rochester given our need for scoring. If signed, NHL arrival as early as next season.

 

7) Borgen. Besides Guhle our pipeline really lacks anyone who looks like a sure fire NHL player on defense. Borgen is the closest. He made the US olympic team, but then never dressed during the games. He is more of a stay at home type player and some here think he is looking to test free agency vs signing with the Sabres. He’ll be 22 in Dec. Assuming he signs, the former 4th rd pick in 2015 will need at least 1 yr in the AHL to learn the system and to adjust to the grind of a professional season. His advantage over someone like Nelson is that he is already very responsible in his own end (which we need). NHL arrival 2019-20 at the earliest.

 

8) Pu. The former 3rd rd pick has outperformed his draft status since being drafted. He has the tools for todays game, but his numbers are very similar to another outperforming 3rd pick in Nick Baptiste. This gives me pause and makes me think he’ll need at least 2 years in the AHL before being NHL ready. Arrival 2020-21.

 

9) The RW trio - Bailey, Fasching and Baptiste. - Baptiste has the edge on the other 2 right now because of the development of his 2 way game. However he is still only getting 8 minutes a night on a lousy Sabres team. All 3 are RFAs. It will be interesting to see who returns and who gets a shot at a roster spot next season, but they are all 3rd and 4th liners at this point. Your guess is as good as mine. Arrival 2018-19

 

10) O’Regan and Smith - College vets who have shown they can play well in the AHL. O’Regan has had a cup of coffee in the NHL after being the 2016-17 AHL ROY. Smith is the Amerks leading scorer but has been out with injuries. I think both will compete for jobs in Buffalo next season as depth forwards. Not sure if either has potential beyond that after comparing their resumes to Wilson and Erod. Arrival possible next season.

 

11) Davidsson. Drafted 37th last year and he looked good at the Wjr. His skill and two way game would normally put him higher on this list. However, there is no telling when he’ll arrive in NA. He is only 19 and has two full seasons in the SHL already. This bodes well for the future. They question is when will Jbot bring him over and how long will it take to adjust to NA. He is probably at least 2-3 years from the NHL.

 

A few other guys in the system like Fitzgerald, Johansson, and Malone (who seems to be benefitting from extra PT in Roch) may have NHL potential but I can’t even estimate an arrival date.

Nice analysis. There is definitely a winning culture in Rochester this season and the Sabres brass doesn't want to tinker with pulling prospects out of that to be part of a losing culture. Why Baptiste is the exception, I don't know. But, it looks pretty obvious they want to keep the Amerks together to win. I think that impacts some of the guys you mention like Fasching and Bailey.

 

I find it humorous that you call it a do-or-die year for Nylander... who just turned 20 -- literally 45 minutes ago. Way too young to write off someone with that much talent.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Nice analysis. There is definitely a winning culture in Rochester this season and the Sabres brass doesn't want to tinker with pulling prospects out of that to be part of a losing culture. Why Baptiste is the exception, I don't know. But, it looks pretty obvious they want to keep the Amerks together to win. I think that impacts some of the guys you mention like Fasching and Bailey.

 

I find it humorous that you call it a do-or-die year for Nylander... who just turned 20 -- literally 45 minutes ago. Way too young to write off someone with that much talent.

It's do or die in terms of making progress.  We are 2 years into his pro career and he really hasn't shown much offense for a guy that is supposed to have high end skill.  He has improved his two way game, which is important, but he wasn't drafted to be a PKer or 3rd two way player.  He was drafted to be a top 6 scoring forward.  Jbot and the Sabres (and we fans)( needs to see some serious growth in that area next season.

[Robviously]

No arguments here. Actually that’s probably what they should have done with a Nylander as well.

Yep.  There's no doubt they signed Nylander too soon and he's struggled with that.  Chalk it up to GMTM's ZFG strategy.

[Thorny]

Nice analysis. There is definitely a winning culture in Rochester this season and the Sabres brass doesn't want to tinker with pulling prospects out of that to be part of a losing culture. Why Baptiste is the exception, I don't know. But, it looks pretty obvious they want to keep the Amerks together to win. I think that impacts some of the guys you mention like Fasching and Bailey.

 

I find it humorous that you call it a do-or-die year for Nylander... who just turned 20 -- literally 45 minutes ago. Way too young to write off someone with that much talent.

It’s not a winning culture in Rochester right now as it currently stands.

[Brawndo]

Casey opens the scoring for Minny.

 

https://twitter.com/gopherhockey/status/969730277684625413

 

Tied 1-1 after one

[Crusader1969]

Casey opens the scoring for Minny.

https://twitter.com/gopherhockey/status/969730277684625413

Tied 1-1 after one

4-2 Penn St after 40

[Brawndo]

Make that 4-3 thanks to Casey’s Second of the Night

 

https://twitter.com/gopherhockey/status/969760283886432257

 

And Penn State takes a 1-0 lead in the best of three series.

 

Game 2 Tomorrow.

[Crusader1969]

Get him signed after their season is done. Finish year in Buffalo and then to,Rochester to get some playoff experience.

come to camp next year and see where he fits

[Randall Flagg]

Reading some posters on hf who are in Minnesota and know about the hockey team, I'm not sure I want him down there with that coach and that supporting cast another year. Doesn't seem like the best place for a prospect that has things he needs to work on. 

[Brawndo]

Reading some posters on hf who are in Minnesota and know about the hockey team, I'm not sure I want him down there with that coach and that supporting cast another year. Doesn't seem like the best place for a prospect that has things he needs to work on.

Lucia has a reputation for not developing his players correctly, that is why Garth Snow had Okposo leave the program half way through his sophomore year.

[Brawndo]

Something Interesting from Jeremy White’s Source with the Sabres. They are likely to offer Mittelstadt a Zack Werenski type deal a PTO AHL Tryout with an ELC signing afterwards and he would be guaranteed to be in the NHL next year.

 

I’m very OK with this.

[dudacek]

This is exactly what I want to happen.

[pi2000]

Something Interesting from Jeremy White’s Source with the Sabres. They are likely to offer Mittelstadt a Zack Werenski type deal a PTO AHL Tryout with an ELC signing afterwards and he would be guaranteed to be in the NHL next year.

 

I’m very OK with this.

 

In my uneducated amateur opinion, I think he should stay in school another year.   

[GASabresIUFAN]

Something Interesting from Jeremy White’s Source with the Sabres. They are likely to offer Mittelstadt a Zack Werenski type deal a PTO AHL Tryout with an ELC signing afterwards and he would be guaranteed to be in the NHL next year.

 

I’m very OK with this.

 

 

In my uneducated amateur opinion, I think he should stay in school another year.   

 

Considering he is only one year out of high school odds are that he needs more physical development, but sometimes management doesn't have a choice.  Right now Casey has all the leverage if the Sabres want him to sign.

[North Buffalo]

Reading some posters on hf who are in Minnesota and know about the hockey team, I'm not sure I want him down there with that coach and that supporting cast another year. Doesn't seem like the best place for a prospect that has things he needs to work on.

 

Lucia has a reputation for not developing his players correctly, that is why Garth Snow had Okposo leave the program half way through his sophomore year.

In my uneducated amateur opinion, I think he should stay in school another year.

 

I’d say yes to your statement except the last two analysis above may be that he would be better in Rochester for development purposes. Edited March 3, 2018 by Kottbullar

[Randall Flagg]

In my uneducated amateur opinion, I think he should stay in school another year.   

You follow college hockey fairly closely right? Are people's concerns about the coach and development system at Minnesota warranted?

[dudacek]

Recent top 10 forwards who were NHL regulars 16 months after being drafted:

McKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, Drouin, Horvat, Nichushkin, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett, Virtanen, Ehlers, Eichel, McDavid, Marner, Rantanen, Matthews, Laine, Dubois, Tkachuk, Puljujarvi, Keller, Jost, Hischier, Patrick.

 

Ones who weren’t:

W. Nylander (made it towards the end of his 2nd year), Dal Colle, Strome, Ritchie (see Nylander), Maier, A. Nylander

 

Based on that, Casey not being in Buffalo next year would be a surprise, not being a pro would be a shock and a disappointment.

Edited March 3, 2018 by dudacek

[Brawndo]

You follow college hockey fairly closely right? Are people's concerns about the coach and development system at Minnesota warranted?

From Eric Vegoe

 

The list of Gophers players turning professional early since 2005 includes three one-and-done players who went right to the show and have played over 2,000 combined NHL games — 2006 first overall pick Erik Johnson, 2006 fifth overall pick Phil Kessel and 2009 16th overall pick Nick Leddy. The list nearly includes 2006 seventh overall pick Kyle Okposo who infamously left mid-season to join the New York Islanders while that team’s GM, Garth Snow, told the Minneapolis Star Tribune it was because of poor development. Okposo has played over 600 games in the NHL since.

 

The 23 Minnesota alumni to play in an NHL game this year is the most from any one NCAA school, and when asked to comment on the stat last week, Lucia quipped, “I thought we didn’t develop anybody in our program, that’s the word, isn’t it?” Over his 30 years as a collegiate head coach Lucia appreciates having good young players in his program and says the most important thing is that they need to be vested and all in while they’re on campus.

 

“As I look back, especially the last 10 years, it seems like years where you really don’t have anybody depart early, it seems like you have your best run at the end. Sometimes when you have three or four guys that are imminent departures they can be mentally elsewhere,” Lucia said.

 

“This group, we have some really good young players. Is anybody ready for the next level today? My opinion doesn’t matter, I just hope they continue to live in the moment, the now, and let’s have the best finish we possibly can.”

[dudacek]

@We’ve, re Kris Baker.

 

I might be getting this confused with something else, but as part of that conversation on GR, I’m pretty sure Baker said that if Hischier and Patrick can be effective in the NHL right now, why can’t Mittelstadt do the same?

[Randall Flagg]

@We’ve, re Kris Baker.

 

I might be getting this confused with something else, but as part of that conversation on GR, I’m pretty sure Baker said that if Hischier and Patrick can be effective in the NHL right now, why can’t Mittelstadt do the same?

His ok-but-not-great production coupled with perceived bad habits that involve trying to do too much himself are worrisome for me in that regard, which is why I think I want him in Rochester next year now that they have a strong and stable group of vets with a coach that appears to be legit. 

[dudacek]

His ok-but-not-great production coupled with perceived bad habits that involve trying to do too much himself are worrisome for me in that regard, which is why I think I want him in Rochester next year now that they have a strong and stable group of vets with a coach that appears to be legit.

 

I don’t think another year of college will be beneficial.

I have no problem with him being in Rochester if he is not one of the 10 best forwards in training camp.

But I’ll be surprised if he’s not one of the 10 best forwards.

Going by the recent trends I posted up-thread, if he is not one of our 10 best forwards, he’s either not as good as we think he is, or Botterill has had an off-season for the ages.

Edited March 3, 2018 by dudacek

[Thorny]

Recent top 10 forwards who were NHL regulars 16 months after being drafted:

McKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, Drouin, Horvat, Nichushkin, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett, Virtanen, Ehlers, Eichel, McDavid, Marner, Rantanen, Matthews, Laine, Dubois, Tkachuk, Puljujarvi, Keller, Jost, Hischier, Patrick.

Ones who weren’t:

W. Nylander (made it towards the end of his 2nd year), Dal Colle, Strome, Ritchie (see Nylander), Maier, A. Nylander

Based on that, Casey not being in Buffalo next year would be a surprise, not being a pro would be a shock and a disappointment.

 

 

Yup, and I’ve been attempting to articulate the same thing. It’s just not common for players of his ilk to remain outside the NHL in their 2nd post draft year. It’s also where they can keep the closest eye on the player’s development.

 

His ok-but-not-great production coupled with perceived bad habits that involve trying to do too much himself are worrisome for me in that regard, which is why I think I want him in Rochester next year now that they have a strong and stable group of vets with a coach that appears to be legit.

 

I would think Botterill has intention for the Sabres to be an equally stable environment next season. If it’s not, he’s not doing his job.

[pi2000]

The complaints about Lucia's program are unwarranted.

[Ho-Chi-Sock]

Hmmm....

 

 

@SabresProspects:

 

Two goals for Daniel O’Regan to guide the Amerks to a 4-1 win over Toronto. Justin Bailey has four goals in his last four games. Alex Nylander has points in four straight.