2018 NHL draft

[Crusader1969]

From McKenzie

Just saw the NHL’s format/timing for Saturday’s draft lottery. Picks 15 thru 4 between 7:30 and 8:00 p.m. ET, picks 3 thru 1 in the second intermission of an 8 p.m. ET game. Huh. I suppose we should be happy they aren’t doing one pick a day for two weeks.

 

 

At least we will know our fate at 8pm. 

 

On a scale of 1 to 10 how disappointed will you be when the Sabres are announced at draft pick #4?

[Randall Flagg]

At least we will know our fate at 8pm. 

 

On a scale of 1 to 10 how disappointed will you be when the Sabres are announced at draft pick #4?

Zero for me, because it's the most likely option, it would be foolish to EXPECT anything else

[Wyldnwoody44]

We're gonna win this thing.

 

 

And then pick Tkachuk

[Crusader1969]

Zero for me, because it's the most likely option, it would be foolish to EXPECT anything else

 

 

I;ll still be a little disappointed, Cause getting Dahlin would not only help the on-ice product but would change the mind set we all have that nothing goes our way.  I'l get over it quick because the guy at 4 will become a corner-stone of the team.

[TrueBlueGED]

Zero for me, because it's the most likely option, it would be foolish to EXPECT anything else

 

The chances are close enough that I feel comfortable throwing caution to the wind and expecting a top-3 selection. As the saying goes, stats are for losers! :D

[GASabresIUFAN]

You suggested originally that they had to take a defender at 32. It depends on what's there.

My tiers show mostly D there, but also I’m a firm believer we also need to draft for organizational need. Failure to do this is one of the reasons why we are where we are.

 

If you don’t draft D you won’t develop any.

Edited April 26, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Randall Flagg]

I;ll still be a little disappointed, Cause getting Dahlin would not only help the on-ice product but would change the mind set we all have that nothing goes our way.  I'l get over it quick because the guy at 4 will become a corner-stone of the team.

I think "sad" would be the word to describe how I'd feel, as I don't expect anything else, which is why I'm hesitant to use the word "disappointed". But yeah, we can all cry here together. 

 

And I also love the prospects Boqvist, Svechnikov, Zadina, and Hughes so it's pretty much a wash for me whether we draft 2,3,4. I'll like any guy we pick there. 

Edited April 26, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[TrueBlueGED]

My tiers show mostly D there, but also I’m a firm believer we also need to draft for organizational need. Failure to do this is one of the reasons why we are where we are.

 

If you don’t draft D you won’t develop any.

 

This is true, but we haven't developed much of anything in recent years, so I don't think it would have mattered anyway.

[Sabre1974]

I;ll still be a little disappointed, Cause getting Dahlin would not only help the on-ice product but would change the mind set we all have that nothing goes our way.  I'l get over it quick because the guy at 4 will become a corner-stone of the team.

Exactly, if we draft at 4th we will still get a good player.

[GASabresIUFAN]

This is true, but we haven't developed much of anything in recent years, so I don't think it would have mattered anyway.

I disagree. What happens if we draft Sergachev over Nylander? Montour was drafted just after we grabbed the Karabacek.

 

How would we feel right now with a D of Montour, Sergachev, Risto, McCabe, Pysyk and Guhle?

[Thorny]

Zero for me, because it's the most likely option, it would be foolish to EXPECT anything else

But I think one can still be disappointed if their hopes don’t come to fruition, even if they aren’t expectations.

 

I;ll still be a little disappointed, Cause getting Dahlin would not only help the on-ice product but would change the mind set we all have that nothing goes our way. I'l get over it quick because the guy at 4 will become a corner-stone of the team.

This is why I’ll be fairly disappointed if we don’t get top 3. I’ll actually be disappointed if we don’t get top 2.

 

We just don’t know the bolded to be true in any way, particularly given the recent drafting history of this team. To assume the guy we pick at 4 will be a cornerstone player is folly. Who knows what’ll happen. By all accounts the rankings are all over the place after pick 2. It’s a crap shoot.

 

I want to win Dahlin and the righteousness that comes with it. If Svechnikov is still considered a lock at 2, I’ll be happy with 2nd too.

 

If we pick 3rd, it’s 50/50 we’re lamenting the pick in a few years.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Thorny

[pi2000]

But I think one can still be disappointed if their hopes don’t come to fruition, even if they aren’t expectations.

 

 

This is why I’ll be fairly disappointed if we don’t get top 3. I’ll actually be disappointed if we don’t get top 2.

 

We just don’t know the bolded to be true in any way, particularly given the recent drafting history of this team. To assume the guy we pick at 4 will be a cornerstone player is folly. Who knows what’ll happen. By all accounts the rankings are all over the place after pick 2. It’s a crap shoot.

 

I want to win Dahlin and the righteousness that comes with it. If Svechnikov is still considered a lock at 2, I’ll be happy with 2nd too.

 

If we pick 3rd, it’s 50/50 we’re lamenting the pick in a few years.

I honestly don't care if they get Dahlin. He's not a can't miss prospect.... nobody is at that age. And one player isn't going to change the culture on this team.

[Thorny]

I honestly don't care if they get Dahlin. He's not a can't miss prospect.... nobody is at that age. And one player isn't going to change the culture on this team.

Sure he is.

 

Talent changes the culture. Adding by all accounts a projected bonafide #1D to go with our bonafide #1C is a good start.

[LGR4GM]

I honestly don't care if they get Dahlin. He's not a can't miss prospect.... nobody is at that age. And one player isn't going to change the culture on this team.

Unless he gets injured, he is a can't miss prospect. You are right though it will take more than 1 player. 

[TrueBlueGED]

I disagree. What happens if we draft Sergachev over Nylander? Montour was drafted just after we grabbed the Karabacek.

 

How would we feel right now with a D of Montour, Sergachev, Risto, McCabe, Pysyk and Guhle?

 

Maybe they don't develop properly because Murray rushes them to the NHL? That's particularly true in Montour's case. 

 

My point was more general, however. We haven't drafted or developed much of anything of true significance in close to a decade. Hindsight is 20/20. There's no real reason to believe that, at the time, we'd have made the right picks if we had simply gone for defensemen instead of forwards.

[Thorny]

Also, we are getting Dahlin.

 

That’s not a prediction, it’s a spoiler.

[Randall Flagg]

I honestly don't care if they get Dahlin. He's not a can't miss prospect.... nobody is at that age. And one player isn't going to change the culture on this team.

He's pretty clearly better at hockey than his peers though, that doesn't matter to you at all?

[Weave]

 

If we pick 3rd, it’s 50/50 we’re lamenting the pick in a few years.

 

You're overstating it a bit, statistically speaking, but the base point is valid.  The further back you move, the more uncertainty is involved.

[Thorny]

You're overstating it a bit, statistically speaking, but the base point is valid. The further back you move, the more uncertainty is involved.

It’s probably pretty likely though that a player picked in the next few picks after pick 3 ends up with the better career, no? Seems to happen every draft, just odds. But that’s not to say I think it’s 50/50 it won’t be a good pick, just 50/50 that it ends up the “right” guy, in hindsight.

 

At pick 1, it’s a near certainty we are gettting the best player in the draft. I’d love that for once.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Thorny

[pi2000]

He's pretty clearly better at hockey than his peers though, that doesn't matter to you at all?

 

Don't get me wrong, I would take him first all day long.... but watching him play I don't think he's going to be as good as some forecast.    I don't think a guy like that really moves the needle much on a team like Buffalo.   

[Weave]

It’s probably pretty likely though that a player picked in the next few picks after pick 3 ends up with the better career, no? Seems to happen every draft, just odds. But that’s not to say I think it’s 50/50 it won’t be a good pick, just 50/50 that it ends up the “right” guy, in hindsight.

 

At pick 1, it’s a near certainty we are gettting the best player in the draft. I’d love that for once.

 

Now I get where you are coming from.  And yeah, that is inevitable at every draft position.  Even #1 many seasons.

[Randall Flagg]

Don't get me wrong, I would take him first all day long.... but watching him play I don't think he's going to be as good as some forecast.    I don't think a guy like that really moves the needle much on a team like Buffalo.   

Fair points.

 

I think he's a good bet to be a number 1 D, but I would never touch him with the McDavid label. And he also may not be an Eichel/MacK/Matthews tier prospect either. 

[LGR4GM]

He's easily Eichel tier of a prospect. 

Rasmus Dahlin is at or above the tier of prospect that Jack Eichel was.

[Randall Flagg]

He's easily Eichel tier of a prospect. 

Rasmus Dahlin is at or above the tier of prospect that Jack Eichel was.

Maybe.

[LGR4GM]

Maybe.

No. This isn't a maybe thing. Rasmus Dahlin is easily at Jack Eichel level of prospect. He does things with the puck that are unbelievable. He has excellent everything.  Rasmus Dahlin is at or above Jack Eichel as a prospect.