MattPie Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 (edited) It's the bye week. The Sabres have played 60 games and have 62 points. Using the 93 point mark as a reference for the playoffs, the Sabres need 31 points in 22 games, or put another way, they can only miss out on 13 before the playoffs become incredibly unlikely.I'll bump and update as the games go on. Edited April 11, 2017 by MattPie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 The Sabres 2016/17 version of the dooms day clock? :nana: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 9-0-13 gets us in! wooo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 9-0-13 gets us in! wooo! We got them right where we want them :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyldnwoody44 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 How many of those 9 are shootout wins...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted February 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 The Sabres 2016/17 version of the dooms day clock? :nana: Pretty much. I take no joy in doing this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonHextallsShoulderPads Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 To understand our chances, I need this in Bills Wild Card Race terms. are we 5-7 and need to win out and a bunch of people to lose OR are we 7-5 and control our own destiny? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyldnwoody44 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 To understand our chances, I need this in Bills Wild Card Race terms. are we 5-7 and need to win out and a bunch of people to lose OR are we 7-5 and control our own destiny?My assumption, is that if we hit 93-94 points, and beat the leaves both times then we should make the playoffs. However there is far. Too much hockey to be played to compare it to the NFL wild card race.... So in summation..... We control our own destiny. But we need To sustain at a pace that is simply unsustainable for us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted February 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 (edited) To understand our chances, I need this in Bills Wild Card Race terms. are we 5-7 and need to win out and a bunch of people to lose OR are we 7-5 and control our own destiny? Probably 6-5, but in a division with the 10-1 Patriots and a couple 8-3 teams currently in the wildcard spots but games against those teams. If the Sabres somehow win out, they'd be at 106 points and in. If they take 3 of 4 points for the rest of the season, they'd have 95 and on the bubble. Anything less than that and nigh well impossible. Presidents Trophy pace for a month and a half. My assumption, is that if we hit 93-94 points, and beat the leaves both times then we should make the playoffs. However there is far. Too much hockey to be played to compare it to the NFL wild card race.... So in summation..... We control our own destiny. But we need To sustain at a pace that is simply unsustainable for us I agree, it's not often 6-5 teams win 3 of 4. If they did, they wouldn't be 6-5. Edited February 23, 2017 by MattPie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 I have resigned myself to the Sabres not making the playoffs. It is just to big of a hill to climb with too many teams in the race for us to leapfrog them all and go on the type of run it will take to make it. It's certainly been a more enjoyable season than the 50 point years, but as all Buffalo sports seasons go... "There's always next year" :death: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 To understand our chances, I need this in Bills Wild Card Race terms. are we 5-7 and need to win out and a bunch of people to lose OR are we 7-5 and control our own destiny? More the first. If the Rangers beat the Leafs tonight, we need to beat the Leafs twice and then out-gain them by 2 points in the rest of the teams' 20 games remaining to pass them. If the Leafs win, we need to beat them twice and out-gain them by 4 points. We need to out-gain the Bruins by 5 points (we're 4 behind them) with no remaining games against them, each having 22 games left. We need to leap frog a bunch of teams in the process, but if the Leafs and Bruins continue at their respective paces, that leap frogging should happen pretty naturally if we do manage to pass the Leafs and Bruins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 We had a pretty huge comeback in the 2010-11 season, so we know it can be done. Does anyone know where we were in 2011 at about this same point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 We had a pretty huge comeback in the 2010-11 season, so we know it can be done. Does anyone know where we were in 2011 at about this same point? 29-25-6, 2 games below .500, 64 points. This year: 26-24-10, 8 games below .500, 62 points. That team went 13-3-4 to finish the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabills Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 We had a pretty huge comeback in the 2010-11 season, so we know it can be done. Does anyone know where we were in 2011 at about this same point? Brute forced it while only half paying attention, but I got 28-25-6 (62 pts) vs 26-24-10 (62 pts). Thats as of the 23rd of February. Weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 29-25-6, 2 games below .500, 64 points. This year: 26-24-10, 8 games below .500, 62 points. That team went 13-3-4 to finish the year. Brute forced it while only half paying attention, but I got 28-25-6 (62 pts) vs 26-24-10 (62 pts). Thats as of the 23rd of February. Weird. Good stuff guys thanks :beer: So we basically have to play like we did to end that season. Possible? That team got 32 points over the final 22 games, then. Some gotta go 14-4-4 to match that and get to 94 points which probably gets in. It's actually pretty crazy that team finished that way. Seems daunting, for this year, looking at the raw numbers. Looks a little more attainable if you view it as 14-8. Of course, that team in 2011 proceeded to get Leino'd, in more ways than one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 That team was also a slightly positive possession team, and finished in the standings in the exact same spot they were ranked by CF%, which is fifteenth hahaWe're 27th in the metric this time around...(I'm not actually using CF% as a predictor I just don't think we play sustainable hockey) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted February 24, 2017 Report Share Posted February 24, 2017 (edited) The bye week has come to an end. Tor is 3rd in the Atlantic with 68 points and the NYI hold 2nd wildcard also with 68 pts. Both teams, like the Sabres, have played 60 games. The Loafs are only 4-3-3 in the last 10, while the NYI are 7-3 in their last 10. The next two closest teams are the Bruins (68 pts in 61 games & 7-3 in their last 10), & the Panthers (66 pts in gms & 8-2 in their last 10). The Sabres are 6-4 in their last 10, but obviously with the way the Bruins, Panthers and Islanders are playing of late, we actually lost ground in the playoff chase. If the Leafs, the worst of the 4 teams fighting for 2 spots, continue t play at a 4-3-3 pace the rest of the way, they'd finish with 92 pts for the season (and likely out of the playoffs). For us to match their 92 pts, we'd have to earn 30 pts in 22 games or 13-5-4. Not impossible, but not exactly likely. The last Sabres team t0 do it was the 2010-11 team that went 14-4-4 down the stretch to make the playoffs following Pegula's purchase of the team. That team scored 240 goals for the season and had 11 double digit goal scorers including two defensemen and 2 30 goals scorers (Vanek and Stafford). Edited February 24, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonHextallsShoulderPads Posted February 24, 2017 Report Share Posted February 24, 2017 We had a pretty huge comeback in the 2010-11 season, so we know it can be done. Does anyone know where we were in 2011 at about this same point? (probably nsfw) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted February 24, 2017 Report Share Posted February 24, 2017 (edited) 29-25-6 (64 pts). We were 26-22-5 when Pegula bought the team. However, there were some substantial differences between then and now. In 2010-11 the East had 3 divisions and there were three bad teams in the East that finished well below .500 pt wise. This season we are in 2 division and there are 4 teams in the Metro that are truly excellent and there are no bad teams. The worst team in the East this year in playing .500 pts wise hockey with Carolina having 56 pts in 56 games. The good news this time is that every team ahead of us in the standings in the Atlantic can still be mathematically caught by the Sabres. It's a much harder task this go around. Edited February 24, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyldnwoody44 Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 Sooo countdown, down to 11....and counting.... Stupid, sexy, prime numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted February 26, 2017 Report Share Posted February 26, 2017 Sooo countdown, down to 11....and counting.... Stupid, sexy, prime numbers Yep. :unsure: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted February 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 Big weekend for the countdown. :( I'll update the title shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted February 27, 2017 Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 Big weekend for the countdown. :( I'll update the title shortly. At this rate your well conceived thread may have a short and disappointing life... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted February 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 (edited) At this rate your well conceived thread may have a short and disappointing life... Only if I decide stop at 0 and not be negative. :( Sample playoff record for the remaining 20 games: 15-4-1. Edited February 27, 2017 by MattPie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted February 27, 2017 Report Share Posted February 27, 2017 Only if I decide stop at 0 and not be negative. :( Sample playoff record for the remaining 20 games: 15-4-1. With the sample record, might as well but the countdown at Zero now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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