Brennan Huff Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 First of all I apologize if this has already been discussed somewhere. Obviously the odds are against it but..... http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/the-five-craziest-nhl-draft-lottery-scenarios/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Yeah, it's been mentioned. The more likely scenario is neither McDavid nor Eichel. So don't get too excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Huff Posted April 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) Well I don't think that's a more likely scenario, but no I'm not too excited. Stuff like that doesn't happen to Buffalo Edited April 9, 2015 by Let's Go Buffalo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Yeah, it's been mentioned. The more likely scenario is neither McDavid nor Eichel. So don't get too excited. More likely as in "more likely that getting both?" Sure. It's most likely than the Sabres end up 30th since I don't think they'll win-out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 More likely as in "more likely that getting both?" Sure. It's most likely than the Sabres end up 30th since I don't think they'll win-out. Your thoughts on whether they will win out or not have no bearing on the likelihood of the team winning out. :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Could one of the smarty-pants calculate the odds of the Islanders missing the playoffs and then winning the lottery? Has to be infinitesimal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Could one of the smarty-pants calculate the odds of the Islanders missing the playoffs and then winning the lottery? Has to be infinitesimal. it was something like 1 in 15,000 I saw someone report the other day. It was twitter though so IDK how accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Could one of the smarty-pants calculate the odds of the Islanders missing the playoffs and then winning the lottery? Has to be infinitesimal. NOt claiming to be a smarty pants stats calculator, but sportsclubstats has the NY Islanders chances of making the playoffs at 99.8%, meaning their chances of missing the playoffs is currently at 0.221%. Taking that percentage and then multiplying by the chance of winning the lottery if that happened, and you are looking at 0.221% x 0.5%. It ain't happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 sports club stats has them at .221% to miss the playoffs times a 1% lottery chance... 0.00221% chance of the the Sabres Drafting twice in the top 3. That's about 1 in 45,000 NOt claiming to be a smarty pants stats calculator, but sportsclubstats has the NY Islanders chances of making the playoffs at 99.8%, meaning their chances of missing the playoffs is currently at 0.221%. Taking that percentage and then multiplying by the chance of winning the lottery if that happened, and you are looking at 0.221% x 0.5%. It ain't happening. #17 has a 1% chance with the reworked odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) The math above comes out to 0.00221% chance. Thanks Vodka Bottle, I was doing it by memory and couldn't remember where the worst odds started. My calculation above reflects the correct odds. Edited April 9, 2015 by Tchaikovsky по Boyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) Your thoughts on whether they will win out or not have no bearing on the likelihood of the team winning out. :P Truth. :) OK, how about the season trend is the Sabres lose roughly 3 of 4 games, losing 2 of the last 4 means they're over their average and at this point I expect them to regress back to the mean rather than suddenly get better. But over a short span they certainly could perform above average. That's what I mean when I say, "I don't think they'll win-out". :p Edited April 9, 2015 by Met'yuPirog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Y'all can use the back of your paper. Carp is waiting to grade papers, and he ain't happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) 1/15000 but that is the islanders missing the playoffs as well. Turns into 1% shot if they do miss the playoffs. Columbus and Pittsburgh are possible losses for them. But then ottawa and boston still need to win it all. Edited April 9, 2015 by Heimdall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom webster Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 NOt claiming to be a smarty pants stats calculator, but sportsclubstats has the NY Islanders chances of making the playoffs at 99.8%, meaning their chances of missing the playoffs is currently at 0.221%. Taking that percentage and then multiplying by the chance of winning the lottery if that happened, and you are looking at 0.221% x 0.5%. It ain't happening. This is exactly the reason I want the Islanders to miss the playoffs regardless of whether they win the lottery. People (not meaning you specifically) keep quoting this site and others like it without no understanding of how they come up with that number. It's a cliche but a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing and a little knowledge is what a lot of these newly available numbers are. Are you seriously going to tell me that the Islanders losing two, Boston and Ottawa winning two and Detroit winning one really has only a .221% chance of happening? Its not likely but it has got to be better then a less then one percent chance. There others that can explain it better but a lot of these sites act like one outcome effects the probability of another outcome when in fact they are completely independent of one another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 This is exactly the reason I want the Islanders to miss the playoffs regardless of whether they win the lottery. People (not meaning you specifically) keep quoting this site and others like it without no understanding of how they come up with that number. It's a cliche but a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing and a little knowledge is what a lot of these newly available numbers are. Are you seriously going to tell me that the Islanders losing two, Boston and Ottawa winning two and Detroit winning one really has only a .221% chance of happening? Its not likely but it has got to be better then a less then one percent chance. There others that can explain it better but a lot of these sites act like one outcome effects the probability of another outcome when in fact they are completely independent of one another. Their numbers are based on millions of simulation calculations based on previous results and future schedule. hover over a number on the site and you can see how they arrived at the ultimate odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 (edited) There is a 99.9812% (1 in 5319) chance that that won't happen (or a 0.0188 % chance that it will). This is based on a 2% probability the Isles don't make the playoffs, a 1% chance that they would win the lottery if they didn't, and a 94% chance of the Sabres coming in 30th. Edited April 9, 2015 by Neuvichs Perchatka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 This is exactly the reason I want the Islanders to miss the playoffs regardless of whether they win the lottery. People (not meaning you specifically) keep quoting this site and others like it without no understanding of how they come up with that number. It's a cliche but a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing and a little knowledge is what a lot of these newly available numbers are. Are you seriously going to tell me that the Islanders losing two, Boston and Ottawa winning two and Detroit winning one really has only a .221% chance of happening? Its not likely but it has got to be better then a less then one percent chance. There others that can explain it better but a lot of these sites act like one outcome effects the probability of another outcome when in fact they are completely independent of one another. I know exactly what it means when I quote that site. It is the culmination of millions of simulations to give an expected outcome. You are free to argue the percentage all you want and how they determine weighted odds, but even so the following scenario needs to play out for the Islanders to miss the playoffs: Islanders lose (gain 0 points) against 2 opponents, Boston and Ottawa winning against 2 opponents and Detroit winning 1 is a total of seven separate independent events that must result in a specific outcome with no margin of error. At this point, yes it is statistically highly improbable that all seven go exactly how you want, even less likely when you consider that the Islanders are a pretty good team and have a high chance of gaining points in the remaining games. Don't act like i'm just making up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 I know exactly what it means when I quote that site. It is the culmination of millions of simulations to give an expected outcome. You are free to argue the percentage all you want and how they determine weighted odds, but even so the following scenario needs to play out for the Islanders to miss the playoffs: Islanders lose (gain 0 points) against 2 opponents, Boston and Ottawa winning against 2 opponents and Detroit winning 1 is a total of seven separate independent events that must result in a specific outcome with no margin of error. At this point, yes it is statistically highly improbable that all seven go exactly how you want, even less likely when you consider that the Islanders are a pretty good team and have a high chance of gaining points in the remaining games. Don't act like i'm just making ###### up. Even if you go with an unweighted 50% chance of a win/50% chance of a loss approach*, you're still going to come up with a very miniscule chance of the Islanders missing the playoffs. *I have no idea how you adjust these numbers to factor in the chances of a 3 point game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cereal Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 I know exactly what it means when I quote that site. It is the culmination of millions of simulations to give an expected outcome. You are free to argue the percentage all you want and how they determine weighted odds, but even so the following scenario needs to play out for the Islanders to miss the playoffs: Islanders lose (gain 0 points) against 2 opponents, Boston and Ottawa winning against 2 opponents and Detroit winning 1 is a total of seven separate independent events that must result in a specific outcome with no margin of error. At this point, yes it is statistically highly improbable that all seven go exactly how you want, even less likely when you consider that the Islanders are a pretty good team and have a high chance of gaining points in the remaining games. Don't act like i'm just making ###### up. Even if you go with an unweighted 50% chance of a win/50% chance of a loss approach*, you're still going to come up with a very miniscule chance of the Islanders missing the playoffs. *I have no idea how you adjust these numbers to factor in the chances of a 3 point game. Yup.... assigning 50% likelihood of those 7 independent events gives 2^-7 = 1/128 = 0.78125% chance right there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Even if you go with an unweighted 50% chance of a win/50% chance of a loss approach*, you're still going to come up with a very miniscule chance of the Islanders missing the playoffs. *I have no idea how you adjust these numbers to factor in the chances of a 3 point game. I suppose in my above scenario you can research historical trends to determine how often a game has reached a shootout or been determined in OT. Then assign probabilities as such. Say 20% of all games this year have resulted in a OT/shootout, so then there would be four outcomes with estimated odds as such: NYI win regulation: 40% NYI loss in regulation: 40% NYI win in OT: 3% NYI loss in OT: 3% NYI win in shootout: 7% NYI loss in shootout: 7% So just for the NYI to lose out and gain 0 points (given 50/50 odds of W/L), you would be looking at something like 0.4 * 0.4 = 0.16. Just two outcomes is something like 16%, not even factoring that NYI are a top ten team so far this year and win more often than lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabre Dance Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Mc Who? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crusader1969 Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Lets not get greedy here - lock up 1 before we consider 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom webster Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 I know exactly what it means when I quote that site. It is the culmination of millions of simulations to give an expected outcome. You are free to argue the percentage all you want and how they determine weighted odds, but even so the following scenario needs to play out for the Islanders to miss the playoffs: Islanders lose (gain 0 points) against 2 opponents, Boston and Ottawa winning against 2 opponents and Detroit winning 1 is a total of seven separate independent events that must result in a specific outcome with no margin of error. At this point, yes it is statistically highly improbable that all seven go exactly how you want, even less likely when you consider that the Islanders are a pretty good team and have a high chance of gaining points in the remaining games. Don't act like i'm just making ###### up. And if we were playing out millions of simulations I believe you would be correct, the desired outcome would only occur less then 1% of the time. However, we are playing out 1 season with three teams stumbling to the gate and one team playing like a Stanley Cup champ. What happened the past 80 games means nothing at all. If I started arguing about a player based on 10 games you would be screaming about sample size, spouting regression and progression to the mean and the effect of randomness in hockey. I am just saying the same thing when it comes to predicting the outcome of less then 10 games. I still don't think it will happen mostly because I don't think Boston will hold up its end. Finally, what makes sports fun for me is because its not like playing the stock market or buying and selling a business. Its not about running a million simulations and assigning probabilities based on those numbers. And just to be clear, I understand the numbers and I understand people like yourself who are consumed by the numbers. My best friend is an analytics geek and is proud to say so. I wasn't referring to people like you or him. I am talking about people who come up with random equations and made up stats and then tell me that player X never made a pass that directly led to a shot on goal because his formula consisted of (X + Y) (number of assists) and he didn't understand that everyone that had zero assists would automatically have zero passes no matter what the other variables. Same guy tells me that team Y had a 100% chance of winning a game if they went for it on fourth and 5 with two minutes left because his probability was based on years of history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 And if we were playing out millions of simulations I believe you would be correct, the desired outcome would only occur less then 1% of the time. However, we are playing out 1 season with three teams stumbling to the gate and one team playing like a Stanley Cup champ. What happened the past 80 games means nothing at all. If I started arguing about a player based on 10 games you would be screaming about sample size, spouting regression and progression to the mean and the effect of randomness in hockey. I am just saying the same thing when it comes to predicting the outcome of less then 10 games. I still don't think it will happen mostly because I don't think Boston will hold up its end. Finally, what makes sports fun for me is because its not like playing the stock market or buying and selling a business. Its not about running a million simulations and assigning probabilities based on those numbers. And just to be clear, I understand the numbers and I understand people like yourself who are consumed by the numbers. My best friend is an analytics geek and is proud to say so. I wasn't referring to people like you or him. I am talking about people who come up with random equations and made up stats and then tell me that player X never made a pass that directly led to a shot on goal because his formula consisted of (X + Y) (number of assists) and he didn't understand that everyone that had zero assists would automatically have zero passes no matter what the other variables. Same guy tells me that team Y had a 100% chance of winning a game if they went for it on fourth and 5 with two minutes left because his probability was based on years of history. Fair enough. My interest in the numbers have been a convenient means to keep calm during the constant panic about missing 30th that has been this season. It is highly unlikely that the Islanders miss the playoffs. That said, it was equally unlikely that the Red Sox came back to beat the Yankees after being down 3-0. Sports is great and interesting to me because the unpredictable and unexpected happens with surprising regularity. It allows you to be emotionally invested in something even if it defies logic and probabilities. Same reason I expect to have Eichel on the team next year, but I sure can hope and dream of McDavid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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