Current Carrion Hockey League Standings

[WildCard]

McDavid really expected to be better than Crosby???/ Holy S batman!!!

I heard it posted here and some other journalist mentioned it. I'm not sure how he stacks up via shooting, quickness, etc. (better draft posters like Liger, Tank, Rob, and others might know) but I know he was on a better points pace in a harder defensive league before he got hurt.

[IKnowPhysics]

McDavid really expected to be better than Crosby???/ Holy S batman!!!

 

His single-season points-per-game pace is the highest (of any league actually) since Crosby. Kane is next on the list after McDavid.

 

Another little bit:

• All players with NHLe's above 38 points exceeded their expectations. The average was 33% above expectation. These players were Crosby, Kane, Backstrom, Tavares, MacKinnon, Stamkos. Reinhart, Bennett, Dal Colle, McDavid, Eichel, and Strome would all possibly fit this category.
  

[Brawndo]

Very informative IKP, Thanks for posting all this!!

[dudacek]

I've been calling BS that a team with REinhart and McDavid in its top six next year can be much better than this year's group.

You're telling me there's statistical evidence that I'm wrong?

How does your formula factor in the God-awful lack of talent playing with them?

[IKnowPhysics]

I've been calling BS that a team with REinhart and McDavid in its top six next year can be much better than this year's group.

You're telling me there's statistical evidence that I'm wrong?

How does your formula factor in the God-awful lack of talent playing with them?

 

Let's be a little careful. There's nothing here proving that you're wrong. These stats show that top prospects can, but don't always, exceed expectations.

 

Possible real life reasons for this may include quality linemates, good usage, lots of powerplay time, lots of sheltered minutes, etc. Prospects at the very top appear to excel statistically more than what is predicted by NHL equivalency, because they seem to get better-than-average opportunities and thrive in them.

 

If you took a top player, surrounded him with AHL talent, and made him play against NHLers, he wouldn't have a good opportunity to thrive and beat expectations. In fact, he'd probably struggle to meet expectations.

 

The math we've done here only describes what happens when you plug rookies into an average rookie situation. It also happens to show that excellent rookies in excellent situations often, but not always, exceed normal expectation.

 

If you get Reinhart and McDavid and Eichel all playing together in a top six or nine, you'll definitely need some skilled veteran support on and off the ice to keep them on track and competitive.

 

That said, based on pure talent alone, you might be able to force these kids into a meat grinder of a situation without much help and still have them come out on top eventually, but it'll be slow going. See also: John Tavares. It could also be disastrous. See also: Nino Neidereiter.

 

The stats don't pick apart and explain each player's situation, so it's tough to talk about how good the situation was for each player based solely on the numbers.

Edited January 22, 2015 by IKnowPhysics

[That Aud Smell]

We all owe IKP a beer.

[sicknfla]

I've been calling BS that a team with REinhart and McDavid in its top six next year can be much better than this year's group.

You're telling me there's statistical evidence that I'm wrong?

How does your formula factor in the God-awful lack of talent playing with them?

 

This is the reason I don't think we should all be giving up on Grigs yet.

[Claude_Verret]

IKP,PhD. Tankology.

[kas23]

Let's be a little careful. There's nothing here proving that you're wrong. These stats show that top prospects can, but don't always, exceed expectations.

 

Possible real life reasons for this may include quality linemates, good usage, lots of powerplay time, lots of sheltered minutes, etc. Prospects at the very top appear to excel statistically more than what is predicted by NHL equivalency, because they seem to get better-than-average opportunities and thrive in them.

 

I think it's more of a numbers game. The NHL equivalency is likely calculated on the entire rookie pool. By numbers, there's vastly more average rookies than elite ones, so the numbers elite rookies put up is just going to be completely statistically overwhelmed by the rest of their class. Players that go in the top 5 are so far off the curve, its hard to assign them NHLe numbers. You're absolutely correct though in calculating a modified NHLe. Top 5 players should be compared to top 5 players of the past only. Great job!!

[MattPie]

Let's be a little careful. There's nothing here proving that you're wrong. These stats show that top prospects can, but don't always, exceed expectations.

 

Possible real life reasons for this may include quality linemates, good usage, lots of powerplay time, lots of sheltered minutes, etc. Prospects at the very top appear to excel statistically more than what is predicted by NHL equivalency, because they seem to get better-than-average opportunities and thrive in them.

 

If you took a top player, surrounded him with AHL talent, and made him play against NHLers, he wouldn't have a good opportunity to thrive and beat expectations. In fact, he'd probably struggle to meet expectations.

 

The math we've done here only describes what happens when you plug rookies into an average rookie situation. It also happens to show that excellent rookies in excellent situations often, but not always, exceed normal expectation.

 

If you get Reinhart and McDavid and Eichel all playing together in a top six or nine, you'll definitely need some skilled veteran support on and off the ice to keep them on track and competitive.

 

That said, based on pure talent alone, you might be able to force these kids into a meat grinder of a situation without much help and still have them come out on top eventually, but it'll be slow going. See also: John Tavares. It could also be disastrous. See also: Nino Neidereiter.

 

The stats don't pick apart and explain each player's situation, so it's tough to talk about how good the situation was for each player based solely on the numbers.

 

It should be noted when talking about these top-5 picks and talent surrounding them that those players went to a team that the previous year one of the worst in the league. Now, that could be an outlier situation (like when Carolina lost Ward a few years back (I think) and were terrible despite having an OK team otherwise), but for the most part these top-5 players are not coming into Detroit (of old) or Pittsburgh (of the last few years). That shows a lot.

 

It should also be noted that the Sabres, for all the bitching around here, are having a not-much-below average last-place season in terms of points. They're on pace for 54 points as it stands, which is only a few points behind the average last place finish since Lockout 1.

 

Last place since season 2005-2006: 57, 56, 71, 61, 62, 62, 65, 61.5*, 52, average 61.

[IKnowPhysics]

The NHL equivalency is likely calculated on the entire rookie pool. .... Players that go in the top 5 are so far off the curve, its hard to assign them NHLe numbers.

 

Exactly right. I hadn't really noticed this until I looked at Tatar and Nyquist, and said, well ######, they're breaking the NHLe numbers... why? They're earning and getting better minutes. Well, top picks also get better minutes...so let's look at them separately.

 

This is the reason I don't think we should all be giving up on Grigs yet.

 

I personally think he hasn't been given a square opportunity to play in favorable situations with favorable minutes. That would -and has- really limit his offensive output. That's why I haven't given up on him, and probably won't until I see more. That said, there might be reasons why coaches don't play him this way- maybe he hasn't earned his opportunities yet.

 

It should be noted when talking about these top-5 picks and talent surrounding them that those players went to a team that the previous year one of the worst in the league. Now, that could be an outlier situation (like when Carolina lost Ward a few years back (I think) and were terrible despite having an OK team otherwise), but for the most part these top-5 players are not coming into Detroit (of old) or Pittsburgh (of the last few years). That shows a lot.

 

It should also be noted that the Sabres, for all the bitching around here, are having a not-much-below average last-place season in terms of points. They're on pace for 54 points as it stands, which is only a few points behind the average last place finish since Lockout 1.

 

Last place since season 2005-2006: 57, 56, 71, 61, 62, 62, 65, 61.5*, 52, average 61.

 

You're right. Most top picks go to garbage teams. And that sets the statistical stage for what kinds of players these picks play with. But despite the Sabres only trailing by a few points, some of the analytics are looking historically bad for us right now, especially some of the points-related stats. For example, we're scoring 1.77 goals per game. The next lowest goals per game since 2005 over a season was about 2.30 (this doesn't count NJ in 2010-11 when they only scored 2.08, but finished 23rd in points, or Minnesota in 2011-12 when they finished with 2.02 at 24th). That's enormous- we're 23% lower in scoring than the lowest scoring teams that finished bottom five over the past 11 years.

 

It's hard to say what's going to happen next year, because there's so many factors. Top picks go to bad teams and often play well. But no recent team has been this bad. Do we have the forwards to help the youngsters? Certainly not entirely, not yet. Will coaching usage help or hinder these kids? Maybe expectations of winning next season force Ted Nolan to play the veterans in the leading roles, diminishing the rookie stats, making it initially seem like the tank was all for ######. Maybe the rookies are so good, they actually carry the team with whatever veterans we get, and start to turn up the wins.

 

This tank business is an enormous, enormous ###### crap shoot. It's unprecedented how all-in this team is for the draft, and either way this whole thing goes, it'll be studied by professional sports managers all over the world for quite a long time. And I'm excited about it.

 

2nd overall from 2014

Sam Reinhart

1.8 PPG in OHL

NHLe: 43 points in 82 NHL games.

New NHLe: 48-55 points.

 

Note that Ennis is leading the pace year towards 48 points.

 

It's ###### like this that leaves the biggest question marks for me. Reinhart should be capable of scoring somewhere between 43-55 points. But that'd pretty much be leading this year's team. Can he be the leading scorer of an NHL team his first full year? ** What personnel does he need around him to do this? Veterans? Or another #1-2 overall rookie centerman in McEichel?

 

**John Tavares did this in 2009. Joined the Islanders and lead them with 54 points. This was 22% above NHLe expectations. So that's encouraging. Sort of. The Islanders didn't lift themselves out of the bottom half of the league until this year.

 

Other rookie players to lead their teams in points:

Crosby, 60% above NHLe

Kane, 21% above NHLe

Hall was close (1 point behind), 19% above NHLe

 

McDavid is right up there with Crosby and Kane, in terms of points per game in juniors. If anyone can do it this decade, he can. Eichel's playing somewhere between Drouin and Kane. It's possible Eichel could lead a team in points, but it doesn't seem likely, from what I'm seeing in the history books. It seems like it'd be a stretch for Reinhart to lead an NHL team in points.

Edited January 22, 2015 by IKnowPhysics

[respk]

 

This tank business is an enormous, enormous ###### crap shoot. It's unprecedented how all-in this team is for the draft, and either way this whole thing goes, it'll be studied by professional sports managers all over the world for quite a long time. And I'm excited about it.

 

 

I agree that the tank may fail, but the Sabres still have the option of signing FAs and trading for players. This is why the tank plan is less risky than the non-tank. While the tank is painful, it is far more interesting than finishing 9th or 10th every year.

[TrueBlueGED]

It's ###### like this that leaves the biggest question marks for me. Reinhart should be capable of scoring somewhere between 43-55 points. But that'd pretty much be leading this year's team. Can he be the leading scorer of an NHL team his first full year? ** What personnel does he need around him to do this? Veterans? Or another #1-2 overall rookie centerman in McEichel?

 

**John Tavares did this in 2009. Joined the Islanders and lead them with 54 points. This was 22% above NHLe expectations. So that's encouraging. Sort of. The Islanders didn't lift themselves out of the bottom half of the league until this year.

 

Other rookie players to lead their teams in points:

Crosby, 60% above NHLe

Kane, 21% above NHLe

Hall was close (1 point behind), 19% above NHLe

 

McDavid is right up there with Crosby and Kane, in terms of points per game in juniors. If anyone can do it this decade, he can. Eichel's playing somewhere between Drouin and Kane. It's possible Eichel could lead a team in points, but it doesn't seem likely, from what I'm seeing in the history books. It seems like it'd be a stretch for Reinhart to lead an NHL team in points.

 

I have no problem believing Reinhart could lead the team in points (let's face it, the bar is not high)...if he was given top line minutes and 1st unit PP time. I also have almost no reason to believe he'd be given these opportunities with Nolan as coach, at least not until well into his rookie season.

[bunomatic]

I agree that the tank may fail, but the Sabres still have the option of signing FAs and trading for players. This is why the tank plan is less risky than the non-tank. While the tank is painful, it is far more interesting than finishing 9th or 10th every year.

 

This.

 

We have lived the alternative. It wasn't very satisfying. Neither is losing but there is a light at the end of the tunnel and imo it ain't a train. I'm looking forward.

[pi2000]

Huge week for the Sabres. CAL, VAN, and a premiere matchup vs a CHL powerhouse in the Edmonton Oilers.

 

My crystal ball tells me February might a tough month for Buffalo so its important they pile on the points while they can on the road.

 

IMO, any less than 6 points this week will be a disappointment.

[Jsixspd]

I hope Buffalo comes off the All-Star Break flat as pancake;  and sets new records for offensive and defensive futility.  

[GrassValleyGreg]

I hope Buffalo comes off the All-Star Break flat as pancake;  and sets new records for offensive and defensive futility.  

Tankers like you are the worst. There's still young talent on this team who may very well be significant contributors down the line. We can lose, and with this roster we will lose. All advanced stats are in our favor. But for Christ's sake, don't curse the young kids with the embarrassment of record breaking futility. Have some respect.

[SabresFuture]

As we approach the rest of the season, I've setup a spreadsheet with data on the current situation with points as well as the schedules for Buf, Car, Ariz, and Edm. 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yC34gVHNeZzyQVyqy4P1gJIQEQ4iClKhP1ceMIQmKe4/edit?usp=sharing

 

It'll be a tight race and those two games against Arizona near the end of the season have the potential to be enormous. 

[sicknfla]

Tankers like you are the worst. There's still young talent on this team who may very well be significant contributors down the line. We can lose, and with this roster we will lose. All advanced stats are in our favor. But for Christ's sake, don't curse the young kids with the embarrassment of record breaking futility. Have some respect.

No cursing needed. They are doing it all on their own.

[Hoss]

Tankers like you are the worst. There's still young talent on this team who may very well be significant contributors down the line. We can lose, and with this roster we will lose. All advanced stats are in our favor. But for Christ's sake, don't curse the young kids with the embarrassment of record breaking futility. Have some respect.

Don't come to the tank thread if you can't handle the heat. I don't want them to break records of futility but I want them to finish last however it needs to happen.

[sicknfla]

Don't come to the tank thread if you can't handle the heat. I don't want them to break records of futility but I want them to finish last however it needs to happen.

I want them to be as bad as possible. Not just because of the reward but I want it to be the low point in this teams history. Then I want them to get together and say "this can never happen again". No more excuses. No more free passes because of the TANK. Pro or anti -tank nobody wants to go through this again.

 

We will have plenty more bumps along the way but after the last game loosing can no longer be acceptable within this organization.

[bob_sauve28]

Tankers like you are the worst. There's still young talent on this team who may very well be significant contributors down the line. We can lose, and with this roster we will lose. All advanced stats are in our favor. But for Christ's sake, don't curse the young kids with the embarrassment of record breaking futility. Have some respect.

Greg, you need to relax. The Tank is above love, not hate. The Tank is about wisdom, not ignorance. The Tank is good, all good. Let yourself go and feel the love of the Tank and be free man

[bunomatic]

I want them to be as bad as possible. Not just because of the reward but I want it to be the low point in this teams history. Then I want them to get together and say "this can never happen again". No more excuses. No more free passes because of the TANK. Pro or anti -tank nobody wants to go through this again.

 

We will have plenty more bumps along the way but after the last game loosing can no longer be acceptable within this organization.

this is pretty well where I am with this. If you're going to lose then at least learn to hate losing while you're at it. To the very core of your existence learn to hate and despise that feeling. Then learn to win as a team.

[SabresFuture]

Some news today relevant to this thread:

 

• Zadorov has been suspended for returning late from the break. I assume it'll be at least 2 games (we play EDM Thursday).
• Neuvirth is injured and will not make the trip out west. Hackett will join the team.
• Okposo is out 6-8 weeks for the Islanders. I hate to see players get injured, but analyzing his injury from a production standpoint, perhaps the NYI will struggle a bit out of the gate. His development and chemistry with Tavares has been a major reason for their success. Don't get me wrong, I don't think they'll fall of a cliff, but at least get them into the last Metro spot or Wild Card spot. 

[pi2000]

 

Some news today relevant to this thread:

 

• Zadorov has been suspended for returning late from the break. I assume it'll be at least 2 games (we play EDM Thursday).
• Neuvirth is injured and will not make the trip out west. Hackett will join the team.
• Okposo is out 6-8 weeks for the Islanders. I hate to see players get injured, but analyzing his injury from a production standpoint, perhaps the NYI will struggle a bit out of the gate. His development and chemistry with Tavares has been a major reason for their success. Don't get me wrong, I don't think they'll fall of a cliff, but at least get them into the last Metro spot or Wild Card spot.