Current Carrion Hockey League Standings

[Hoss]

One scout told me last night that the gap between McDavid and Eichel has widened considerably. On Eichel: "He's a good 2nd pick"

[qwksndmonster]

One scout told me last night that the gap between McDavid and Eichel has widened considerably. On Eichel: "He's a good 2nd pick"

What troop was she in? Did you get me any cookies?

 

To the bolded: No ######.

Edited January 20, 2015 by qwksndmonster

[pi2000]

One scout told me last night that the gap between McDavid and Eichel has widened considerably. On Eichel: "He's a good 2nd pick"

 

Disagree.

 

Eichel is playing against men in the NCAA where the vast majority of players are 20-23 year olds and is leading the country in scoring as an 18yo. McDavid is playing against teenagers.

 

I know, I know.... World Juniors. However, you put Eichel on the Canadian team, and he's leading the tournament in scoring.

 

Watching the WJC I was more impressed with Eichel's skills than McDavid's. When Eichel is on the ice he controls the game entirely. He has better puck possession skills, partly due to his incredible reach and extra long stick. He reminds me more of a Jagr type vs McDavid who is more like a Matt Duchene.

[Hoss]

That's not me saying that. New Twitter app I use doesn't copy the Twitter name. That's John Shannon, and it echoes everything I've said from the start: there is not and WAS NEVER any Eichel vs McDavid. It's always been McDavid then Eichel. The draft talkers just needed something to debate over so they created that. When McDavid got hurt it made it easier to debate, but it never had any basis in reality. Crosby >>>>>> Madano.

[IKnowPhysics]

FYI, McDavid's NHL point equivalency right now is 64.2 points. Eichel's is 58.5.

 

For reference, Reinhart's is 42.8 and Lemiuexex's is 28.5.

[TrueBlueGED]

That's not me saying that. New Twitter app I use doesn't copy the Twitter name. That's John Shannon, and it echoes everything I've said from the start: there is not and WAS NEVER any Eichel vs McDavid. It's always been McDavid then Eichel. The draft talkers just needed something to debate over so they created that. When McDavid got hurt it made it easier to debate, but it never had any basis in reality. Crosby >>>>>> Madano.

 

What I find interesting is how he said the gap has widened. How and why? The gap now should be the same as it always has been...unless (flash back to a previous conversation we had) the professionals are putting waaaaaaaaay too much weight on a handful of games at the World Juniors, which weren't Eichel's best.

[#freejame]

IKnowPhysics, how exactly does the point equivalency work? I've never quite understood it.

[Brawndo]

What I find interesting is how he said the gap has widened. How and why? The gap now should be the same as it always has been...unless (flash back to a previous conversation we had) the professionals are putting waaaaaaaaay too much weight on a handful of games at the World Juniors, which weren't Eichel's best.

 

And McDavid wasn't even the "Top Line Center" during WJCs. Reinhart was the first first over the boards during PK and PP and drew toughest assignments for Team Canada. Eichel did the same thing for the US.

[LGR4GM]

FYI, McDavid's NHL point equivalency right now is 64.2 points. Eichel's is 58.5.

 

For reference, Reinhart's is 42.8 and Lemiuexex's is 28.5.

What's Marner's?

[pi2000]

FYI, McDavid's NHL point equivalency right now is 64.2 points. Eichel's is 58.5.

 

For reference, Reinhart's is 42.8 and Lemiuexex's is 28.5.

 

For a full season? Or through 45 games?

 

I'm assuming the former.

[shrader]

IKnowPhysics, how exactly does the point equivalency work? I've never quite understood it.

 

If I've followed that correctly in the past, they multiply the players current numbers by some conversion factor and that's it. The factor is different depending on which league they are playing in.

[That Aud Smell]

But what does the current converted number represent? The # of points they'd likely have this year? Next?

[IKnowPhysics]

NHL point equivalency aims to predict the number of points that a player would score in the next 82 game NHL season. This is done by examining the historical stats of the many players that have made the leap from any given league (like the AHL, junior leagues, NCAA, SM-Liiga, etc) to the NHL the following year, then calculating a modifier/fudge/conversion/equivalency factor to the points per game the player scored in that previous league.

 

Once the conversion factors are calculated (by some other nerd), they're pretty easy to use.

 

Russian Super League 0.83

Czech Republic League 0.74

Swedish Elite League 0.78

Finland SM-Liiga 0.54

AHL/IHL 0.44

Switzerland National League 0.43

Deutsche Eishockey League 0.52

NCAA 0.41

Canadian Major Juniors 0.29

 

For example:

 

Sam Reinhart scored 132 points over his last 75 games with Kootenay. That's 1.76 points per game in juniors. Then you multiply by the NHLe factor for the Canadian Major Juniors (0,29) and the number of NHL games in a season (82). This gives you the number of points you might expect from the Reinhart over a full 82 game season.

 

(132/75) x (0.29) x (82) = 41.8 points.

 

Disclaimers: It obviously doesn't account for injuries (playing fewer NHL games), though you can calculate for fewer games than 82. It doesn't account for out-of-ordinary player usage (ie, Grigorenko playing only four minutes of 4th line per game or Nate MacKinnon playing immense minutes with top line linemates for COL his first year). It's designed for the average, solid usage of a rookie player.

 

That said, not all, but most players I've calculated fall within about 10% of their values once they get to the NHL. Even rookies that come up play and short 10-40 game stints with the Sabres, it's worked out pretty well. At least before the recent Sabres stat-skewing tankfest.

 

There's an added bonus: you can compare how "strong" a league is by comparing their equivalency factors- the bigger the factor, the stronger the league. So you can characterize leagues a little: the NCAA is a little tougher to score in than Canadian Juniors, but doesn't really compare to the "playing against men" leagues like RSL and Czech League. A player that scores 50 points in SEL is a much better player than one that scores 50 points in juniors in the same number of games.

 

And since I'm typing this out anyways, let's do some math for funsies.

• Risto played in SM-Liiga, scoring 15 points in 52 games for TPS. He then came to Buffalo last year and scored only 4 points in 34 games. Was that backward development, or was it right on? His NHLe was 5 points. Pretty close to right on.
  
• Zadorov killed it last year in the OHL for the London Knights, scoring 30 points in 39 games from the blue line. NHLe says he should have 8 points in his 34 games this season with Buffalo. How many does he have? Eight!
  
• Nic Deslauriers scored 39 points in 60 games for the Manchester Monarchs of the AHL last season. His NHLe predicts he should have 13 points in 47 games with Buffalo. He currently has 12.
  
• Grigorenko had a tumultuous year last year to say the least, but he would eventually go back to the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL and wreck it with 39 points in 23 games. According to NHLe, he was capable of posting about 6 points in his 12 games this season in Buffalo. He had a disappointing two points in those 12 games. Maybe it was poor usage or small sample size. And (due to math I won't explain, but it's not hard to figure out), if Grigorenko were really playing at the level that he showed in juniors and he was adjusting well to the "big man's" game, this method says we should expect about 38 points in his 34 games in Rochester. He only has 29 points there. It could be a symptom of the reason why he's spending more time there this year.
  

[LGR4GM]

Mitch Marner's is 50.957 pts over 82 games... God I hope he slides and we trade up.

[GrassValleyGreg]

Huge comeback by Washington to leave EDM empty-handed!!!

Edited January 21, 2015 by GrassValleyGreg

[WildCard]

Up 2 in the third and BP Oil comes back to lose in a shootout 5-4. Sabres enter the ASB in sole possession of the Shart :beer:

 

 

Good post IKP, I'm pretty surprised at how accurate that is. Definitely going to start using it more often after I saw that; maybe go through the 2015 top 10 for the hell of it

[Taro T]

Huge comeback by Washington to leave EDM empty-handed!!!

Excellent news!

 

Sabres officially can blow a single point (assuming Eulers don't blow any) and still end up winning it all.

 

:beer:

[IKnowPhysics]

What's Marner's?

 

Mitch Marner has scored 90 points in 42 games so far for the Knights this season, which equates to roughly 51 points over 82 games. It'd be very surprising (like MacKinnon surprising) if he actually accomplished that, for lots of reasons (usage in the NHL, playing more than nine games and burning a year of ELC, developing his two way game), but it appears possible and his scoring has definitely accelerated in juniors.

 

A couple more, for fun. These are some rarer cases where NHLe fails and guys make a big leap forward, thus proving themselves indispensable prospects to their clubs. The departure from the predicted value is caused not just by the players' development, but by the increase in minutes and the quality linemates they've earned, compared to an average rookie:

• From his work in Grand Rapids in the AHL, Tomas Tatar could've expected to reasonably score 26 points in his 73 games last season for Detroit. But he busted open in the NHL with 39 points last year. He's on pace for 37 goals and 60 points this season and he's currently the Red Wings' leading scorer. Maybe that's why Babcock doesn't want to move him.
  
• Similarly, Gustav Nyquist also lit up the A, and should've posted about 27 points in his 57 games with the Red Wings last year. Instead, he put up 48.
  
• Aaron Ekblad should have about 12 points in his 44 games, but he's put up 25 points.
  

This demonstrates one of the things that's exciting about McDavid. Based on his 60 points in 23 games so far this season with Erie, you might expect he could post 62 points in the NHL using NHLe. BUT he could earn opportunities to play more than the average rookie, if he doesn't have gaping developmental holes in his game. He could be playing big minutes with great linemates and lots of powerplay time, which, like Tomas Tatar, could allow him to post 50% more points than NHLe predicts. Then you're having conversations about a possible 93-point rookie, in which his statistical colleagues are Malkin, Yzerman, Bossy, Niuewendyk, Trottier, Crosby, Hawerchuk, Ovechkin, etc.

 

If Eichel were able to play right away and get on the great side of some great minutes, his NHLe could boost 50% from 58 points towards 87 points. But that could be asking a lot of his usage and playing opportunities. Nevertheless, it shows why Eichel could be considered a #1 overall in other years.

[Brawndo]

Flyers with an OT Loss

[IKnowPhysics]

Mitch Marner's is 50.957 pts over 82 games... God I hope he slides and we trade up.

 

Jesus, I'm slow tonight.

 

Good post IKP, I'm pretty surprised at how accurate that is. Definitely going to start using it more often after I saw that; maybe go through the 2015 top 10 for the hell of it

 

Thanks. I'm always surprised too. It seems like such a simplistic, ham-handed technique. But it works pretty good, especially if the player you're looking at gets opportunities that resemble average minutes and average usage.

Edited January 21, 2015 by IKnowPhysics

[I am Defecting]

So, let me get this right. You're saying that if we finish last, we get the top pick in next years draft?

[TrueBlueGED]

Physics :wub:

[X. Benedict]

Excellent news!

 

Sabres officially can blow a single point (assuming Eulers don't blow any) and still end up winning it all.

 

:beer:

 

The Sabres control their own destiny for the Shart. Time for GMTM to make a trade and lock this streak in.

[sicknfla]

So, let me get this right. You're saying that if we finish last, we get the top pick in next years draft?

 

No. We get to pick after the Leafs.

[LGR4GM]

Jesus, I'm slow tonight.

lol no worries. It was a good post actually.

 

Seriously we need to trade up for Marner. This must happen. Reinhart and Marner on a line makes me see puppies cuddling rainbows and Miss Lebanon and Miss Israel making out.