korab rules Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Anybody else think 5.5 might be a touch high? Not a lot, but maybe in the 500-750K range? The guy is coming off his rookie contract - we have years and years of RFA status in his future, and we are paying him a ton of money. I'm not suggesting that we play hardball, or try and screw the guy over, but when we are overpaying guys by 500K all over the roster (Hecht, goose, pommers, leino), we end up with cap issues. If young Tyler comes out and picks up right where he left off with dominating, physical play in his own end I probably won't feel that way, but if he is slow to find his way again after having put on another 10 lbs of muscle over the summer (please, please let the 10 lbs of muscle part be true!)then it will be an issue. I know, the contract, doesn't start until next season. I guess my issue comes down to how we are valuing these players and determining contract terms. Darcy seems to be paying players based on potential, rather than production. That's great if they actually meet their potential, but when they don't you end up with Boyes and Kotalik. I am a little worried about the cost of our D. Next year, we will Myers at 5.5, Ehrhoff at 4, Regehr at 4.02, Leopold at 3, Sekera at 2.75 and Weber at .950 for a grand total of 20.22 for 6 D-men. Add a 7th and an 8th and we are over 21 million, with another 7 million devoted to goaltending. That leaves us 36 million for 13 forwards, with Vanek, 29 million for 12 players. We need to continue to hit on draft picks so we always have cheap labor to fill the voids and Darcy needs to keep his crystal ball handy so that the players he chooses to pay for potential reach that potential. Fail at either, and we will have the highest paid roster in the AHL by a country mile. Boy, there sure are a lot of things to worry about when your team spends to the cap and money is no object! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawerchuk Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Funny, how I have to come to the forum board to read about it instead of the Buffalo News! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Let me be the first (I think) to say forget Darcy, good job by Tyler Myers not trying to squeeze every last dollar out of an owner who has pretty much indicated he'd be willing to pay it. Not saying it's no big deal for DR, because it is a great move, but also an obvious one ... I promise you that a year ago today the Kings were trying to get Doughty locked up, and Nashville was trying to get Weber locked up ... neither could do it. Myers is making a big commitment that not every player is willing to make when he might be leaving money on the table. That's definitely the sign of a player who knows he needs to leave some room for teammates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Anybody else think 5.5 might be a touch high? Not a lot, but maybe in the 500-750K range? The guy is coming off his rookie contract - we have years and years of RFA status in his future, and we are paying him a ton of money. I'm not suggesting that we play hardball, or try and screw the guy over, but when we are overpaying guys by 500K all over the roster (Hecht, goose, pommers, leino), we end up with cap issues. If young Tyler comes out and picks up right where he left off with dominating, physical play in his own end I probably won't feel that way, but if he is slow to find his way again after having put on another 10 lbs of muscle over the summer (please, please let the 10 lbs of muscle part be true!)then it will be an issue. I know, the contract, doesn't start until next season. I guess my issue comes down to how we are valuing these players and determining contract terms. Darcy seems to be paying players based on potential, rather than production. That's great if they actually meet their potential, but when they don't you end up with Boyes and Kotalik. I am a little worried about the cost of our D. Next year, we will Myers at 5.5, Ehrhoff at 4, Regehr at 4.02, Leopold at 3, Sekera at 2.75 and Weber at .950 for a grand total of 20.22 for 6 D-men. Add a 7th and an 8th and we are over 21 million, with another 7 million devoted to goaltending. That leaves us 36 million for 13 forwards, with Vanek, 29 million for 12 players. We need to continue to hit on draft picks so we always have cheap labor to fill the voids and Darcy needs to keep his crystal ball handy so that the players he chooses to pay for potential reach that potential. Fail at either, and we will have the highest paid roster in the AHL by a country mile. Boy, there sure are a lot of things to worry about when your team spends to the cap and money is no object! Hard to disagree with alot of this. The part I bolded is my biggest concern. It's how we ended up with an overpaid Pomminstein, Connolly, and Gaustad. The great unknown that may work in favor for this contract is, what will a Tyler Myers type D-man's new contract market value look like when Tyler is in years 4, 5, 6 of his deal? I am open to the idea that the plan is to overpay a bit now with the expectaion that his contract will be more of a value contract in the final years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Korab, if it is 6 years as speculated, it buys into a couple years of UFA. That's always going to cost a few extra bucks. Defensemen are always going to draw a premium price, so the rate probably isn't too bad. Also, Leopold will only be there for one year of that deal, so that will trim back those numbers a bit. Then again, Weber will be up for a new deal at that same time, so that should balance out a bit of the money saved from Leopold. Funny, how I have to come to the forum board to read about it instead of the Buffalo News! Nothing's official so the Buffalo News has nothing to report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RazielSabre Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Wow, great job once again Darcy. :beer: Like Eleven implied above, as time goes on it's becoming more and more apparent how much he was being shackled by prior ownership/management. I remember the days when Darcy was only used as an unholy insult. How times change. Anyway, well said, I concur with your statement fully really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matty Ice Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Pierre Lubrun speculating that the deal is for 7 years, 5.5 million per. He also says that deal is imminent, and will be done soon. He also expressed the immediate blue-line contract concerns, as Korab mentions above. Personally, I think this is a great deal. If we are spending too much on the blue-line, a lot of the guys are very movable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
korab rules Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Korab, if it is 6 years as speculated, it buys into a couple years of UFA. That's always going to cost a few extra bucks. Defensemen are always going to draw a premium price, so the rate probably isn't too bad. Also, Leopold will only be there for one year of that deal, so that will trim back those numbers a bit. Then again, Weber will be up for a new deal at that same time, so that should balance out a bit of the money saved from Leopold. I would feel better about the amount if the term was longer. At six years, this deal ends when he will be in his absolute prime - can you imagine the type of contract he will command if he turns into the player we all think he will? I would rather see an 8 year deal or even a 10 at that number. The more UFA years we buy, the better a deal it is for us. As to the blue line numbers, yes, Leopold comes off after 2012-2013, but so does Regehr. we will need to resign Regehr, or someone like him. Expenses never go down, they always rise to meet income. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 I completely forgot that Regehr's deal is also off the books after next season. So they'll have one year of those big numbers and then things can change drastically. edit: If they wanted to go longer term, it was going to cost even more. Myers also has to be willing to go that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Korab makes some good points (as always), but a six- or seven-year deal is a long-term deal, and a $5.5MM cap hit is very reasonable for a star defenseman (which he is, if he's really more like playoff Myers and not first-half-of-last-season Myers). Myers will be well underpaid by the time it's up. If TP is still the owner and still stinking rich, and if Myers continues to develop, I wouldn't worry about re-signing him at the appropriate time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Korab makes some good points (as always), but a six- or seven-year deal is a long-term deal, and a $5.5MM cap hit is very reasonable for a star defenseman (which he is, if he's really more like playoff Myers and not first-half-of-last-season Myers). Myers will be well underpaid by the time it's up. If TP is still the owner and still stinking rich, and if Myers continues to develop, I wouldn't worry about re-signing him at the appropriate time. If he plays with the physicality of "playoff myers" and the puck movement he had in the last 20 games, he will be underpaid by February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROC Sabres Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Funny, how I have to come to the forum board to read about it instead of the Buffalo News! Come on, you can't expect people to do their jobs for a living. Why do you think we are all posting here during the day ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Korab makes some good points (as always), but a six- or seven-year deal is a long-term deal, and a $5.5MM cap hit is very reasonable for a star defenseman (which he is, if he's really more like playoff Myers and not first-half-of-last-season Myers). Myers will be well underpaid by the time it's up. If TP is still the owner and still stinking rich, and if Myers continues to develop, I wouldn't worry about re-signing him at the appropriate time. And who knows where the CBA takes things at that point and what changes happen to the cap over that time. Ultimately, we're talking about a 21 year old kid. That's a lot of years for a kid that young to sign away. Come on, you can't expect people to do their jobs for a living. Why do you think we are all posting here during the day ;) Remember, we're talking about a couple twitter posts here, so it's not like this is heavily reported (or even reported at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Korab makes some good points (as always), but a six- or seven-year deal is a long-term deal, and a $5.5MM cap hit is very reasonable for a star defenseman (which he is, if he's really more like playoff Myers and not first-half-of-last-season Myers). Myers will be well underpaid by the time it's up. If TP is still the owner and still stinking rich, and if Myers continues to develop, I wouldn't worry about re-signing him at the appropriate time. That's a big "if". And that is a good part of korab's point. It is definitely a pay-for-potential contract and those do have more risk than a pay-for-current-performance contract. Personally, I think Myers is up to it. But it is a roll of the dice. I am much happier second guessing the long term signing of a potential star defenseman than I was second guessing walking away from our best centers on July 1. These are enjoyable discussions to have, unlike the ones we'd have in recent previous seasons. :clapping: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BetweenThePipes00 Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Anybody else think 5.5 might be a touch high? Not a lot, but maybe in the 500-750K range? The guy is coming off his rookie contract - we have years and years of RFA status in his future, and we are paying him a ton of money. I'm not suggesting that we play hardball, or try and screw the guy over, but when we are overpaying guys by 500K all over the roster (Hecht, goose, pommers, leino), we end up with cap issues. If young Tyler comes out and picks up right where he left off with dominating, physical play in his own end I probably won't feel that way, but if he is slow to find his way again after having put on another 10 lbs of muscle over the summer (please, please let the 10 lbs of muscle part be true!)then it will be an issue. I know, the contract, doesn't start until next season. I guess my issue comes down to how we are valuing these players and determining contract terms. Darcy seems to be paying players based on potential, rather than production. That's great if they actually meet their potential, but when they don't you end up with Boyes and Kotalik. I am a little worried about the cost of our D. Next year, we will Myers at 5.5, Ehrhoff at 4, Regehr at 4.02, Leopold at 3, Sekera at 2.75 and Weber at .950 for a grand total of 20.22 for 6 D-men. Add a 7th and an 8th and we are over 21 million, with another 7 million devoted to goaltending. That leaves us 36 million for 13 forwards, with Vanek, 29 million for 12 players. We need to continue to hit on draft picks so we always have cheap labor to fill the voids and Darcy needs to keep his crystal ball handy so that the players he chooses to pay for potential reach that potential. Fail at either, and we will have the highest paid roster in the AHL by a country mile. Boy, there sure are a lot of things to worry about when your team spends to the cap and money is no object! I would feel better about the amount if the term was longer. At six years, this deal ends when he will be in his absolute prime - can you imagine the type of contract he will command if he turns into the player we all think he will? I would rather see an 8 year deal or even a 10 at that number. The more UFA years we buy, the better a deal it is for us. As to the blue line numbers, yes, Leopold comes off after 2012-2013, but so does Regehr. we will need to resign Regehr, or someone like him. Expenses never go down, they always rise to meet income. OK which is your bigger concern? First you have concerns because it's too much based on potential ... but then you want to give him MORE years of guaranteed money for fear he will be TOO good. I mean, you can't protect yourself both ways (unless you are an NFL owner with a license to print money from the TV networks ... then you can pay just enough up front to get the guy to sign but if he sucks you just cut him and stop paying him) ... at the end of the day EVERY contract is based on potential, and you can always get burned no matter how highly respected the player (see Drury, Chris). Myers COULD plateau and be overpaid (unlikely, IMO) and he COULD walk at the age of 28 (who knows), but they will have a pretty good idea of where that is going at least a year and a half before he is actually gone, so they can cross that bridge when they come to it. Given the landscape around the league, it's a very reasonable deal ... and given that they want to win a Cup within 3 years, keeping this guy around for 6 or 7 more means they are trying to win a couple before they have to worry about him leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Funny, how I have to come to the forum board to read about it instead of the Buffalo News! I by no means stick up for TBN but quarter to 9am they had something. Now this: http://buffalonews.typepad.com/sabres/ Contract talks between the Buffalo Sabres and defenseman Tyler Myers are indeed moving forward, but a deal between the sides will not be announced today, The Buffalo News has learned. Myers, entering the final season of his three-year, entry-level deal, is nearing an extension. TSN's Bob McKenzie reported today the deal will be for six years and approximately $33 million. A source told The News the sides are talking and the conversations are "going in that direction" toward an extension, but nothing is expected to be finalized today. FWIW, Garth talked to Myers this morning and he confirmed he's getting a deal done now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 That's a big "if". And that is a good part of korab's point. It is definitely a pay-for-potential contract and those do have more risk than a pay-for-current-performance contract. Personally, I think Myers is up to it. But it is a roll of the dice. I am much happier second guessing the long term signing of a potential star defenseman than I was second guessing walking away from our best centers on July 1. These are enjoyable discussions to have, unlike the ones we'd have in recent previous seasons. :clapping: IMO all contracts are for next season and therefore pay-for-potential contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 That's a big "if". And that is a good part of korab's point. It is definitely a pay-for-potential contract and those do have more risk than a pay-for-current-performance contract. Personally, I think Myers is up to it. But it is a roll of the dice. I am much happier second guessing the long term signing of a potential star defenseman than I was second guessing walking away from our best centers on July 1. These are enjoyable discussions to have, unlike the ones we'd have in recent previous seasons. :clapping: Winning the Calder is generally going to bump a player right up to the front of the list of people who are more likely to get a pay-for-potential contract. I don't think there's any way around that, short of major injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew Amerk Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Good call. I read recently (I think on Puck Daddy) that the Kings GM confirmed that Doughty turned down a 9-year, $63MM contract offer. Ridiculous decision by him, IMHO. Thats effing ridiculous. Well, now I can get a Myers jersey knowing he isnt going anywhere for awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bruceleeroy Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 ESPN's Pierre LeBrun is reporting the Myers deal is 7 yrs $5.5 per. Im ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assquatch Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Anybody else think 5.5 might be a touch high? Not a lot, but maybe in the 500-750K range? The guy is coming off his rookie contract - we have years and years of RFA status in his future, and we are paying him a ton of money. I'm not suggesting that we play hardball, or try and screw the guy over, but when we are overpaying guys by 500K all over the roster (Hecht, goose, pommers, leino), we end up with cap issues. If young Tyler comes out and picks up right where he left off with dominating, physical play in his own end I probably won't feel that way, but if he is slow to find his way again after having put on another 10 lbs of muscle over the summer (please, please let the 10 lbs of muscle part be true!)then it will be an issue. I know, the contract, doesn't start until next season. I guess my issue comes down to how we are valuing these players and determining contract terms. Darcy seems to be paying players based on potential, rather than production. That's great if they actually meet their potential, but when they don't you end up with Boyes and Kotalik. I am a little worried about the cost of our D. Next year, we will Myers at 5.5, Ehrhoff at 4, Regehr at 4.02, Leopold at 3, Sekera at 2.75 and Weber at .950 for a grand total of 20.22 for 6 D-men. Add a 7th and an 8th and we are over 21 million, with another 7 million devoted to goaltending. That leaves us 36 million for 13 forwards, with Vanek, 29 million for 12 players. We need to continue to hit on draft picks so we always have cheap labor to fill the voids and Darcy needs to keep his crystal ball handy so that the players he chooses to pay for potential reach that potential. Fail at either, and we will have the highest paid roster in the AHL by a country mile. Boy, there sure are a lot of things to worry about when your team spends to the cap and money is no object! If you don't award contracts based on potential, you won't overpay anybody but you also won't get any bargains. When you end up with Pominville and Roy on the same roster it's all a wash anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dEnnis the Menace Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Thats effing ridiculous. Well, now I can get a Myers jersey knowing he isnt going anywhere for awhile! I got mine at the end of last season. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
korab rules Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 OK which is your bigger concern? First you have concerns because it's too much based on potential ... but then you want to give him MORE years of guaranteed money for fear he will be TOO good. I mean, you can't protect yourself both ways (unless you are an NFL owner with a license to print money from the TV networks ... then you can pay just enough up front to get the guy to sign but if he sucks you just cut him and stop paying him) ... at the end of the day EVERY contract is based on potential, and you can always get burned no matter how highly respected the player (see Drury, Chris). Myers COULD plateau and be overpaid (unlikely, IMO) and he COULD walk at the age of 28 (who knows), but they will have a pretty good idea of where that is going at least a year and a half before he is actually gone, so they can cross that bridge when they come to it. Given the landscape around the league, it's a very reasonable deal ... and given that they want to win a Cup within 3 years, keeping this guy around for 6 or 7 more means they are trying to win a couple before they have to worry about him leaving. Its a balancing act of potential, security, and UFA years. I have no doubt that by the end of this contract TM will be worth more than 5.5, but I am feeling he probably won't be worth quite that much at the beginning. The point of my first post was that on the teeter totter of value, 5.5 x 6 had things tilting TM's way, especially considering that most of it falls in his RFA years when he is suposed to be a bargain. By lowering the cap hit a little, or as I referenced in the second post, lengthening the term a little further into his UFA years when I fully expect he will be exceeding the value of that contract, we bring the teeter totter back to level or tilting a little bit our way. I disagree with your point that every contract is based on potential, but it may be semantics. When I talk about potential, I am referring to paying someone for a hoped for production they haven't achieved yet. Leino is a perfect example of this. So is Shakira. TM, to me, is much more of a sure bet than the others. My beef here is we are paying him a very hefty salary through all of his RFA years when we are supposed to be getting a bargain. Hopefully we will end up with a bargain anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 A smidge higher than i thought they would pay (4.2 -5.0) but if true,this deal opens up a ton of options for the Sabres assuming they have complete flexibility with his contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted September 14, 2011 Report Share Posted September 14, 2011 Like I have said many times before, Darcy better hit home runs with these long term contracts or they will be screwed in terms of the cap. As it stands today(after Myers signs on the dotted line), the Sabres will have 9 players over the 4+ mil mark for 12-13. ...and he is staring at a much bigger contract(6+ mil) for Derek Roy who will be a UFA after the 12-13 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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