Crazy we are in last place in the division but 6 points out of first with 2 games in hand

[Scottysabres]

Title change? Or to soon?

[MattPie]

At the (just past) quarter mark, the Sabres are at 0.500. to get to 0.600 over the next 20 games, they'd have to play 7-3-0 or 7-1-2 hockey for two 10-game stretches. That seems fairly unlikely. Even spreading out over the rest of the season, they'd need to play ~0.633 hockey, averaging between 6-4-0 and 6-3-1 per 10-game stretch. Maybe a switch flips and they suddenly become that team, maybe not. They're not that team now.

6 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Title change? Or to soon?

Too soon, lol.

Edited 7 hours ago by MattPie

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

Out of all the teams in the wildcard race, only Buffalo and Philadelphia are on winning streaks (both W2).  Montreal is the only other team in the race that did not lose their last game.

We've got a lot of teams to pass, and none of them are perfect teams.  They all have their warts.  If the Sabres can work themselves out of this injury hole *and* beat the teams they should beat, playoffs are possible for this team.

The Sabres SEEM to have fixed their play at home, PROVIDED they aren't playing a team they are too immature to take seriously prior to puckdrop.  Fixing that taking opponents lightly thing is the next thing that needs to be fixed in their home play.

On the road, they've still had too many stretches where opponents get the matchups they want and eventually get the goals they need to keep the Sabres road records one of the worst in the NHL and so bad even playing 0.750 at home since the 3rd home game and better than 0.64 there overall can't get them over NHL 0.500 which is a low bar to cross.

MAYBE getting healthy will allow them to be better at avoiding the killer matchups against.  Pittsburgh would be a good place to start that.

They need to continue getting strong goaltending on the road or even better matchups won't help them enough.

[PASabreFan]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Look Gandalf also said "there never was much hope, just a fools hope"

One might say a fool's gold (and blue).

[bob_sauve28]

1 hour ago, MattPie said:

At the (just past) quarter mark, the Sabres are at 0.500. to get to 0.600 over the next 20 games, they'd have to play 7-3-0 or 7-1-2 hockey for two 10-game stretches. That seems fairly unlikely. Even spreading out over the rest of the season, they'd need to play ~0.633 hockey, averaging between 6-4-0 and 6-3-1 per 10-game stretch. Maybe a switch flips and they suddenly become that team, maybe not. They're not that team now.

Too soon, lol.

Math! Boo! 

Such a perfect science. Maybe too perfect. 

That sure makes it look impossible

 

[Pimlach]

1 minute ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Math! Boo! 

Such a perfect science. Maybe too perfect. 

That sure makes it look impossible

 

It is not impossible.  Win enough in a row to improve the current .500 to .600.    This can be done in a few chunks with winning streaks, they are about to win 3 in a row if they can get a road win in Pittsburgh - that is a real MW.  

Then maintain .600.  This means they average winning 6 of 10 (3 of 5) like a real hockey team.  

It means no more big losing streaks.  No more losing 3 in a row.  No more OTL's unless they are come from behind.  It is time for this team to grow up.  

 

[bob_sauve28]

56 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

It is not impossible.  Win enough in a row to improve the current .500 to .600.    This can be done in a few chunks with winning streaks, they are about to win 3 in a row if they can get a road win in Pittsburgh - that is a real MW.  

Then maintain .600.  This means they average winning 6 of 10 (3 of 5) like a real hockey team.  

It means no more big losing streaks.  No more losing 3 in a row.  No more OTL's unless they are come from behind.  It is time for this team to grow up.  

 

Totally love your optimism but I'll only believe it when I see it. 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

It is not impossible.  Win enough in a row to improve the current .500 to .600.    This can be done in a few chunks with winning streaks, they are about to win 3 in a row if they can get a road win in Pittsburgh - that is a real MW.  

Then maintain .600.  This means they average winning 6 of 10 (3 of 5) like a real hockey team.  

It means no more big losing streaks.  No more losing 3 in a row.  No more OTL's unless they are come from behind.  It is time for this team to grow up.  

 

Winning three in a row has been a real big hurdle for this team in what seems like forever.

I agree that there is a sliver of hope, they just need to have more of a sense of urgency than the plenty of runway attitude.

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

That sure makes it look impossible

[bob_sauve28]

 

[Doohickie]

The 2022 Kentucky Derby winner wasn't even supposed to be in the race- Number 21 in a 20 horse field.  He's circled in yellow

If Rich Strike can do it, so can the Sabres.

Edited 4 hours ago by Doohickie

[Archie Lee]

4 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

I guess I would ask: an excuse for who?

For the players?  Ok, maybe.

For the coaches?  Much less so. 

For the GM?  Not a chance. The reason we have Power and Byram is to provide puck-moving depth on the backend. And up front, what does it say if we are hapless without the services of a 20 year old kid and a 33 year old journeyman (no disrespect to Benson and Zucker).

[bob_sauve28]

5 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I guess I would ask: an excuse for who?

For the players?  Ok, maybe.

For the coaches?  Much less so. 

For the GM?  Not a chance. The reason we have Power and Byram is to provide puck-moving depth on the backend. And up front, what does it say if we are hapless without the services of a 20 year old kid and a 33 year old journeyman (no disrespect to Benson and Zucker).

It says they are good players, I guess. Difference makers. The NHL teams are so closely matched that a few injuries tip the balance 

[shrader]

37 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

One thing lost in that breakdown is how much overlap there is between those three players being out. It’s not just one guy. 
 

Ok, the Dahlin impact is obvious. We all know what they lose there. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, shrader said:

One thing lost in that breakdown is how much overlap there is between those three players being out. It’s not just one guy. 
 

Ok, the Dahlin impact is obvious. We all know what they lose there. 

But interestingly, and neither of the other 2 of the "big 3" have been out this season, but Dahlin is the only of the Big 3 who's absense that they seem unable to overcome.  (Looking at last season's performance, regarding how the team handled the loss of the other 2.)

And it's also interesting, though not surprising considering how little experience the team has as a whole and how young they are, that the one 30+ veteran skater on the roster is one of the guys they don't seem to be able to make up for his absence; nor can they make up for the absence of the kid who SHOULD be too small and too slow to make that huge of a difference, but who's motor and hockey sense tend to create chaos that they seem to be missing from the forward ranks.

And those are the types of guys that Adams has been reluctant to focus on when obtaining players - the veteran that's been there before and can help calm the team down when things are going kerplewy and the guy that may not check every box physically but he simply makes good things happen when he's on the ice.  And the play of both can be contagious.  Bringing in Doan was a good move to help (stinks that it came at the expense of Peterka, but is what it is).  They really need a few more of these types ideally as they really seem to miss them when they're gone.

[mjd1001]

3 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

So if you add up the record of when those guys are out (not knowing any overlap), its 6-16-2.  If you add in Dahlin last year its 6-26-4 (or 6 wins and 30 losses if we consider OT losses what they are, losses).

Well, guess what? Other teams lose their star players and still make the playoffs, other teams lose sometimes MULTIPLE important players and make the playoffs. Why?  I'm guessing when other playoff teams lose important players, they aren't as good, but they for sure AREN'T 6 WINS and 30 LOSSES bad!

The reason injuries doesn't work as an excuse is when you have them, you have to be good enough to do better than 6 wins and 30 losses. Maybe 15w, 21 losses.  Maybe even 12 and 24. But not 6 and 30.  That is in indictment on your roster construction.

[shrader]

@Taro T, personally I think stud defenseman is the hardest position to replace. Right from the start, it’s a simple numbers game, being down 1 of 6 skaters vs 1 of 12. He’s out there for around 6 more minutes a game than any of the forwards. 
 

Id love to see similar stats on the other elite defenseman… if they’ve missed more than a handful of games. I’m guessing the drop off is very noticeable, maybe to a lesser extent with Makar. 

[PromoTheRobot]

20 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Well, guess what? Other teams lose their star players and still make the playoffs, other teams lose sometimes MULTIPLE important players and make the playoffs. 

Is this true in every case or are you assuming?