Zach Benson: how good will he be this year?

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I disagree with your disagreement of my assessment.

I forecast him as a 3rd line winger on a playoff team who fills an important role... matching up against other teams top lines, killing penalties, situational matchups (end of periods, closing out games, etc..).    You absolutely need those type of players in your lineup... he's part of the solution, just not as a top 6 point producing player.    That role belongs to somebody with a bit more offensive acumen.... on a playoff team at least.

 

Would I be correct in saying you see his ceiling as a Jochen Hecht?

 

[pi2000]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Would I be correct in saying you see his ceiling as a Jochen Hecht?

 

Production wise, yes.... I think his ceiling is perhaps a Viktor Arvidsson, but with a decent floor of a guy like Teddy Blueger who fills an important defensive role.

[Jorcus]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

You don't agree that Zach Benson passing to Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn, and Peyton Krebs for large chunks of the year impacted his assists? 

Ok. What's more likely, Benson shoots below average forever, or he had bad shooting luck mixed with not enough skill that can be corrected? 

Yup. 

 

Cozens was below average shooting. Krebs and Quinn were average. I believe both scored more goals away from Benson than with him. But the opposite is also true because Benson did not convert goals at a high rate his line mates assist rate was also impacted. 

I expect his goal scoring average to go up. It has to if he is to be a prominent forward. It's long way from where he was last year to being a #1 left wing. I just wish I knew what the plan for that position was because I don't see a good one right now.  

[Broken Ankles]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Watch the video.

I think his awareness is definitely top 6. Look at all the good, unexpected passes he makes in high-traffic situations and the reads when he's breaking up plays defensively.

I don't know if the Sabres have a better forward on the roster in terms of moving the puck to a teammate while under pressure.

But I see exactly where you're coming from on the skill thing. He doesn't bury enough of the chances his sense and tenacity create. I think it's mostly his shot, which I'd classify as weak at this point, but he's also shown no ability to beat guys one-on-one off the rush. I think that's speed-related, because he's shown quick twitch agility and hands to escape and make plays in traffic situations. He's not shown much ability to create and execute in open ice.

I think it would be mistake to ever think he can create offence like, say, a Mitch Marner of a JJ Peterka can. 

But there are other ways to produce and I could see him succeeding offensively in the manner of a Sam Reinhart or a Brad Marchand.

When you look at Marchand's skillset, what tools does Brad have that Benson does not?

In his first two full years in the NHL Marchand averaged 80 hits (bias stat -maybe), 24 goals and a shooting percentage of almost 16.   But Benson has a three year head start on these numbers, so 25/26 wouldn’t even factor in based on age.  So from a development perspective, it’s about getting physically stronger, and executing offense at a higher level.  

* adding an asterisk to my comments as the OP question was how good will he be this year.  I am fully on board Benson meeting these numbers 3 years from now.  

Also, did the PC police vet your question using Brad as a comparable…..based on what, his size?  Because I never mentioned height or weight in my posts. Benson towers over Marchand by 1 inch, so why would you not use a 5’11’ forward to compare?

 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Jorcus said:

 

Cozens was below average shooting. Krebs and Quinn were average. I believe both scored more goals away from Benson than with him. But the opposite is also true because Benson did not convert goals at a high rate his line mates assist rate was also impacted. 

I expect his goal scoring average to go up. It has to if he is to be a prominent forward. It's long way from where he was last year to being a #1 left wing. I just wish I knew what the plan for that position was because I don't see a good one right now.  

I see a lot of people gravitating toward a "1st line" of Benson/Kulich/Thompson that we saw a lot of down the stretch.

I picked March 15 as a bit of arbitrary start date as the first game Norris missed — thinking he's the guy who will be effectively replacing Peterka in the top 6 — and tracked Benson's numbers:

He was 6th in ice time for forwards at 16:02 per game after Tuch, McLeod, Thompson, Peterka and Zucker, in that order

He was 9th among forwards in points, with 5 in 17 games and did not score a goal

He was 5th among forwards in shots with 31

He was tied for 7th in GF% at 50%

He led the regular forwards in possession at 54.2%

The Sabres went 11/5/1 over those 17 games, outscoring their opponents 65-58.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

* - with JJ Peterka in the top 6 and Benson getting 3rd/4th line minutes (22% of 4201 even strength minutes).   

 

 

Wasting?! He was a 19 year old, still learning the pro game.... you make it sound like he's an established superstar who wasted away at the bottom of the lineup because of Lindy.   C'mon, do better!

 

He's nowhere near 50-60pts, nor does his NHLe (35pts) project him to be... therefore the burden of proof is on you my friend.

 

You aren't my friend. You said that a 60pt Benson wouldn't even be a top 6 winger on a playoff team. I proved you wrong, easily. 

Be better. 

18 hours ago, pi2000 said:

I'll say this, if they deploy him on the first line and gets regular PP minutes, he could get close to 60pts.... which would be acceptable on a non-playoff team like Buffalo.

That said, you want to be taken seriously as a playoff contender?

Do. Better.

 

[mjd1001]

34 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I see a lot of people gravitating toward a "1st line" of Benson/Kulich/Thompson that we saw a lot of down the stretch.

I picked March 15 as a bit of arbitrary start date as the first game Norris missed — thinking he's the guy who will be effectively replacing Peterka in the top 6 — and tracked Benson's numbers:

He was 6th in ice time for forwards at 16:02 per game after Tuch, McLeod, Thompson, Peterka and Zucker, in that order

He was 9th among forwards in points, with 5 in 17 games and did not score a goal

He was 5th among forwards in shots with 31

He was tied for 7th in GF% at 50%

He led the regular forwards in possession at 54.2%

The Sabres went 11/5/1 over those 17 games, outscoring their opponents 65-58.

I just no longer believe in labels like "first line" or "2c".

I guess I can get behind a '4th line' for the role they may have and the fact they are getting the least ice time.  But beyond that, in your top 9, you play where you play the best, with who you play the best with.  If that means Benson (or anyone else) plays the best with Tage, that doesn't make him your 'best' winger and therefore he should get the label as the 1st line winger.  Is he a top 9 guy?  Is Tuch a top 9 guy? Is ANYONE not on the 4th line getting '4th line minutes' a a top 9 guy?  Yep, most of these guys will.  At that point its less about slotting them as "1st line, 2nd line, etc" and more about just seeing who plays the best with who in your top 9.  As far as who gets the most ice time....current play and matchups can dictate that.

Benson is, and should be, a 'top 9' forward on this team. Who he plays with and how many points he gets will determine his ice time, not where he is 'slotted' on a dept chart.

Personally, I would expect mid-teens in goals, close to 40 points from him.  15-16 minutes per game, without much time on the PP or PK (yet).  If he gets a minute or two more, or a minute or two less, it should be more about who he is playing with and HOW that LINE is currently playing.

IF he ends up playing mostly with Tage and Kulich, AND that line is as good as it was in the last 1/4 of the season....AND they stick together for most of the year, he MAY end up with 60+ points and 17 minutes of ice time per game.  IF he gets moved to a different line (with McLeod as his center), he may end up with a minute or two less ice time per game and only 30-40 points. That doesn't mean he was 'demoted' or had a worse year. Its about who you play best with and situations.

Edited 2 hours ago by mjd1001

[pi2000]

27 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You aren't my friend. You said that a 60pt Benson wouldn't even be a top 6 winger on a playoff team. I proved you wrong, easily. 

Be better. 

 

That's not what I said... read carefully... Playing 1st line on a non-playoff team like Buffalo, best case Benson could approach 60pts.... that said, he still wouldn't crack the top 6 on an established playoff team.   

In other words, you take the average second line winger on an established playoff team and put them on Buffalo's first line.... they easily crack 60 points, while Benson would struggle to do the same and likely wouldn't hit that mark.

If a 20 year old with an NHLe of 35pts is your 3rd or 4th best option for a point producing wing role, you're not a playoff team.

Do better.  

Edited 2 hours ago by pi2000

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I just no longer believe in labels like "first line" or "2c".

I guess I can get behind a '4th line' for the role they may have and the fact they are getting the least ice time.  But beyond that, in your top 9, you play where you play the best, with who you play the best with.  If that means Benson (or anyone else) plays the best with Tage, that doesn't make him your 'best' winger and theirfore he should get the label as the 1st line winger.  Is he a top 9 guy?  Is Tuch a top 9 guy? Is ANYONE not on the 4th line getting '4th line minutes' a a top 9 guy?  Yep, most of these guys will.  At that point its less about slotting them as "1st line, 2nd line, etc" and more about just seeing who plays the best with who in your top 9.  As far as who gets the most ice time....current play and matchups can dictate that.

Benson is, and should be, a 'top 9' forward on this team. Who he plays with and how many points he gets will determine his ice time, not where he is 'slotted' on a dept chart.

Thank you. So much this.

What matters is ice time: who the coach leans on most and in what situations, full stop.

[LGR4GM]

34 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

That's not what I said... read carefully... Playing 1st line on a non-playoff team like Buffalo, best case Benson could approach 60pts.... that said, he still wouldn't crack the top 6 on an established playoff team.   

In other words, you take the average second line winger on an established playoff team and put them on Buffalo's first line.... they easily crack 60 points, while Benson would struggle to do the same and likely wouldn't hit that mark.

If a 20 year old with an NHLe of 35pts is your 3rd or 4th best option for a point producing wing role, you're not a playoff team.

Do better.  

Literally showed this to be wrong. Here, read carefully. 

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Let's look at the production of the 4th forward from the 2024 playoff teams in the regular season. I am using forward because teams often switch centers and wings around for chemistry so lets just look at forwards. The criteria is play forward, are the 4th guy on that team in points.

Dallas: Hintz, 28g, 67pts

Vegas: Stone, 16g, 53pts

Vancouver: Garland, 20g, 47pts

Nashville: Novak, 18g, 45pts

Winnipeg: Perfetti, 19g, 38pts

Edmonton: RNH, 18g, 67pts

LA: Moore, 31g, 57pts

Florida: Verhaeghe 34g, 72pts (interestingly the next forward is at 41pts)

Tampa: Haegel 26g, 75pts (and then you drop to 46pts)

Boston: Zacha 21g, 59pts

Toronto: Tavares, 29g, 65pts

New York: Zibanejad, 26g, 72pts

Washington: Mantha, 20g, 35pts

Carolina: Necas, 24g, 53pts

Long Island: Palmieri, 30g, 54pts

Without even going with the 6th best forward in terms of points (which could be a teams 2nd line LW) we get an average of 53.7points for the 2023-2024 season. This means that your statement of "I'll say this, if they deploy him on the first line and gets regular PP minutes, he could get close to 60pts.... which would be acceptable on a non-playoff team like Buffalo. That said, you want to be taken seriously as a playoff contender? Do. Better." isnonsense not backed up by anything when I used the best "2nd" line point producers from each team to run this. The 4th best point producing forward on all 16 of the playoffs teams in 2023/2024 averaged below 60pts and only 6 teams managed to have a 4th forward top 60pts. The only logical conclusion is that a top 6 forward who gets 60pts is really good, certainly in the mix to be called a top line forward, and heavily valuable to EVERY playoff team. If Zach Benson puts up 60pts (I doubt he will but idk, crazier things have happened) the Sabres would be sitting pretty. Of course if Buffalo does not get its goals against down, it won't really matter.

If we go to the 5th best forward on each team that 53.7 drops considerably. Thought I should note that. Even if I do it for just the two florida teams that see a massive drop at 5th forward, that brings us down to 49.9pts. 

 

 

Do better is great advice, I encourage you to take it.