Off-season Game Plan 2024

[jad1]

53 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Good thing we traded him without a plan to replace him.  We have no 3C NHL ready prospects, Krebs isn't good enough and most of the guys who'd be perfect for the role have NMCs so they aren't coming or have expensive contracts (or want an expensive contract) or both.  

Take, for example, Anthony Cirelli.  Good hard working two way center.  Comes from a championship team and only 26 (27 in July).  He also doesn't have a NMC (yet) and is on a team that my have to cut payroll.  Sounds like an ideal fit.  However this player's max offense is has been 43-45 pts.  He hit his career high in goals (20) and pts (45) this past season.  Unfortunately he is under contract for the next 7 years at 6.25 per season, or about what it would have cost to keep Mitts (back to back seasons of 59 & 57 points).  

Yeah, this deal really turned the roster into a mess.  

In addition to your take on replacing Mittlestadt, the Sabres really need a couple of veteren, stay-at-home defensemen in the top four to pair with Dahlin and Power.  Bryam isn't that type of player. 

It'll be interesting to see what Ruff contributes to the construction of the roster.

 

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Wilson has seven years left at 6.5 million AAV and he has already started his decline in production. 
And his metrics are atrocious 

From what you point out he wouldn't be a good add on. But this team needs a tough and hard player to play against added to our roster, especially on the lower lines. 

[SwampD]

On 5/1/2024 at 9:20 AM, Doohickie said:

What do you give up to acquire Nelson?  What do the Isles need?

I would love Brock Nelson on the Sabres. Sure hope those “future considerations” for taking on Boychuk’s salary come in handy.

[LGR4GM]

Offseason game plan: fix special teams

 

[Doohickie]

On 5/3/2024 at 5:35 PM, Thorny said:

And honestly I’ve never heard of that dude. 

[Doohickie]

On 5/3/2024 at 6:22 PM, French Collection said:

Just the first small, high scoring junior player from yesteryear that popped into my head.

He lit up the OHL in the early 90’s and didn’t go anywhere.

MacKinnon should not be a comparable, he’s bigger. LOL.

And to be fair, Ralph Intranuovo was drafted at the very end of the fourth round of the 1992 draft.

[thewookie1]

18 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Certainly no one here would say no, but I think there is zero possibility that Toronto says yes.  Also, IMHO it's the kind of offer no NHL GM would make as it would make him sound silly.

The one thing that could make it work is if Toronto feels desperate to make a change.

Marner has a full NMC and a buyout leaves them with a 10.5 mil dead cap next year. A large number of teams would want assurances of an extension and/or need Toronto to retain half. All of which is mute if Marner, or rather his father, plays hard ball since he's from Toronto. Without much effort, Marner can effectively screw the Leafs by rejecting any trade and just walking to UFA at next year's end. It's that sort of power that could create a scenario in which he accepts 1 year in Buffalo and Toronto acquires Skinner to fill the hole and "save face."

 

One additional note, they won't be buying out Tavares either for the same reason. 

[Doohickie]

18 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

7 years at 6.25 per season, or about what it would have cost to keep Mitts

I think Mitts will command more than that, but we'll see.

[thewookie1]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

I think Mitts will command more than that, but we'll see.

My guess is still 7x7mil since I do think the Sabres keep him if they could have got him a 6mil or less.

[Doohickie]

17 hours ago, jad1 said:

It'll be interesting to see what Ruff contributes to the construction of the roster.

I think the first sign that Ruff is driving roster tweaks is when someone like Byram, Tuch or even Krebs gets traded.  As was said above, Kevyn gets too attached to his guys and I think doubly so for players he acquired via trade.  If Byram is traded for more of a hard-nosed defenseman with Top Four bona fides, that will be a sign that Lindy is calling (or at least influencing) the shots.

17 hours ago, jad1 said:

Yeah, this deal really turned the roster into a mess.  

If $6.25 million x 7 would have signed Mitts, I think you make that deal all day.

[thewookie1]

4 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I think the first sign that Ruff is driving roster tweaks is when someone like Byram, Tuch or even Krebs gets traded.  As was said above, Kevyn gets too attached to his guys and I think doubly so for players he acquired via trade.  If Byram is traded for more of a hard-nosed defenseman with Top Four bona fides, that will be a sign that Lindy is calling (or at least influencing) the shots.

If $6.25 million x 7 would have signed Mitts, I think you make that deal all day.

I don't think Tuch even has an inkling of a chance of getting traded.

[Doohickie]

3 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

My guess is still 7x7mil since I do think the Sabres keep him if they could have got him a 6mil or less.

Heck, I'd even go up to $7 mill.  The justification would be that with cap increases, later contracts will be smaller percentages of the cap.  Maybe $7 million is too much for a 3C but I think Casey is more of a 2C and with Cozy, Mitts and Tage all on the roster as centers a good coach could move them around to get the most out of them as a group (as Donny did in 22-23 when Tage was coming off injury and he let Mitts run the top line and let Tage play 2nd line wing for a while).  Aside from the stats, I think the thing that Casey Mittelstadt brings is versatility to play high quality minutes anywhere in the Top Nine, providing depth for your Top Six.

My biggest frustration with Kevyn (assuming the reports are true) is that he didn't even contact Mittsy's agent about an extension.  It would be one thing if they talked numbers and it was apparent it wasn't going to work out, but apparently Kevyn didn't even attempt to find out what the numbers were.

1 minute ago, thewookie1 said:

I don't think Tuch even has an inkling of a chance of getting traded.

Nor do I; I was more just trying to list players he traded for.  I think if we see a prominent piece that Adams acquired via trade moved, it's a sign that Lindy is contributing to roster construction.

[nfreeman]

19 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

The one thing that could make it work is if Toronto feels desperate to make a change.

Marner has a full NMC and a buyout leaves them with a 10.5 mil dead cap next year. A large number of teams would want assurances of an extension and/or need Toronto to retain half. All of which is mute if Marner, or rather his father, plays hard ball since he's from Toronto. Without much effort, Marner can effectively screw the Leafs by rejecting any trade and just walking to UFA at next year's end. It's that sort of power that could create a scenario in which he accepts 1 year in Buffalo and Toronto acquires Skinner to fill the hole and "save face."

If Toronto feels desperate enough, there will be plenty of bidders offering much better packages than Skinner and his albatross contract, and most-to-all of those will be much more attractive destinations than the Sabres are from Marner's perspective.

Don't kid yourself.

[thewookie1]

13 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

If Toronto feels desperate enough, there will be plenty of bidders offering much better packages than Skinner and his albatross contract, and most-to-all of those will be much more attractive destinations than the Sabres are from Marner's perspective.

Don't kid yourself.

We have the location advantage and if Marner won't waive for anywhere else it doesn't matter about the market. Remember the Leafs GM traded Tkachuk for Huberdeau and Weegar

[Thorny]

What about if the Amerks win the Calder cup this season? Does that shift the narrative of Adams’ performance in 23-24? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

26 minutes ago, Thorny said:

What about if the Amerks win the Calder cup this season? Does that shift the narrative of Adams’ performance in 23-24? 

No.  His job is to make the Sabres a winning team and he has failed in that task miserably. 

[thewookie1]

35 minutes ago, Thorny said:

What about if the Amerks win the Calder cup this season? Does that shift the narrative of Adams’ performance in 23-24? 

If anything it creates a general hope for the future but doesn't excuse his inability to make the Sabres better in the mean time. 

[RochesterExpat]

I’m sure this will be received well, but in a hypothetical Leafs rebuild where NMCs get freely waived (which is what the Make Believe fan base seems to expect), would you consider trading for Tavares as a 3C?

Tavares is overpaid at a cap hit of $11m for one more year. Since few—if any—teams can afford to eat that outright, a 25% retention is probably the starting point. That lowers his hit to $8.25m for the 24-25. Buffalo is able to accommodate that, but that’s probably the starting point for Buffalo to consider and I think it could/should go lower.

His last three seasons:

2021-2022: 79 GP, 27G 49A 76P

2022-2023: 80 GP, 36G 44A 80P

2023-2024: 80 GP, 29G 36A 65P

He turns 34 at the start of the season and Tavares will essentially be a cap dump by Toronto. His acquisition cost should be minimal. Leafs fans will probably celebrate a bag of pucks going their way because, at least in part, the Toronto media likes to scapegoat him for the Leafs playoff exits. His contract is the problem—not the player. He is still a productive center with 1,109 regular season NHL games under his belt.

The big downside to signing him is that he is not a long-term solution. He would be in Buffalo for one season. A younger player with term is ideal, but I don’t know how aggressive Buffalo will be in pursuing such a player. It’s also nigh impossible to really know who is available for trade at reasonable values. History tells us time and time again that players signed in free agency are overpaid.

Buffalo has a need for a 3C. Tavares can also be a scoring winger in the Top 6 if we need him to fill that role due to an injury. He is elite at faceoffs and is a still a threat on the power play. He is more physical than Bertuzzi and Domi—all while taking far fewer penalties. He’s got the NHL experience. He has leadership experience. Contrary to what Toronto fans will tell you, there is a lot to like with Tavares. It’s the albatross of an $11m cap hit that makes him difficult to like.

Would you be willing to trade a prospect like Rosen and a 4th round pick to Toronto for Tavares at 25% and send a 3rd to Anaheim to retain an additional 25% (lowering his cap hit to $6.25m for one year)? We have the assets and this is one player that I don’t think will cost an arm and a leg to acquire because Toronto media is trying to run him and Marner out of town. 

[thewookie1]

4 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

I’m sure this will be received well, but in a hypothetical Leafs rebuild where NMCs get freely waived (which is what the Make Believe fan base seems to expect), would you consider trading for Tavares as a 3C?

Tavares is overpaid at a cap hit of $11m for one more year. Since few—if any—teams can afford to eat that outright, a 25% retention is probably the starting point. That lowers his hit to $8.25m for the 24-25. Buffalo is able to accommodate that, but that’s probably the starting point for Buffalo to consider and I think it could/should go lower.

His last three seasons:

2021-2022: 79 GP, 27G 49A 76P

2022-2023: 80 GP, 36G 44A 80P

2023-2024: 80 GP, 29G 36A 65P

He turns 34 at the start of the season and Tavares will essentially be a cap dump by Toronto. His acquisition cost should be minimal. Leafs fans will probably celebrate a bag of pucks going their way because, at least in part, the Toronto media likes to scapegoat him for the Leafs playoff exits. His contract is the problem—not the player. He is still a productive center with 1,109 regular season NHL games under his belt.

The big downside to signing him is that he is not a long-term solution. He would be in Buffalo for one season. A younger player with term is ideal, but I don’t know how aggressive Buffalo will be in pursuing such a player. It’s also nigh impossible to really know who is available for trade at reasonable values. History tells us time and time again that players signed in free agency are overpaid.

Buffalo has a need for a 3C. Tavares can also be a scoring winger in the Top 6 if we need him to fill that role due to an injury. He is elite at faceoffs and is a still a threat on the power play. He is more physical than Bertuzzi and Domi—all while taking far fewer penalties. He’s got the NHL experience. He has leadership experience. Contrary to what Toronto fans will tell you, there is a lot to like with Tavares. It’s the albatross of an $11m cap hit that makes him difficult to like.

Would you be willing to trade a prospect like Rosen and a 4th round pick to Toronto for Tavares at 25% and send a 3rd to Anaheim to retain an additional 25% (lowering his cap hit to $6.25m for one year)? We have the assets and this is one player that I don’t think will cost an arm and a leg to acquire because Toronto media is trying to run him and Marner out of town. 

No, I'll give them a 4th for him  at 50% but I'm not giving them anything to help them clear cap.

[dudacek]

Tavares will replace Mitt’s production short-term and seriously bolster our middle six.

He can also win faceoffs and might help the PP.

This is a short-term proposal I would absolutely entertain.

[triumph_communes]

On 5/3/2024 at 8:34 PM, LGR4GM said:

I don't believe the Sabres under Kevyn Adams will make any move to improve the top 6. In fact I think they will assume their top 6 is actually in better shape this offseason with jjp and Quinn both growing and Benson emerging. I also believe they think both Skinner and Cozens will rebound. I also think they'll give Krebs ample opportunity to be 3 C.

They may add 2 or 3 bottom 6 types but that's it. Adams doesn't seem to understand when and how to ruthlessly improve the team and shows far too much loyalty to his favorite players. We need leaders though and I don't see anyone with enough heart, maybe Dahlin. 

I was fine until the end. I don’t think this is fair to a guy who traded away Eichel and Reinhart. Sure they weren’t his draft picks, but I’m sure they would have been at the time.  It’s in Lindy to dictate playtime to play hardball and then the GM moves a player who doesn’t buy in. That’s not on the GM to do in the absence of a coach unless it’s a toxic situation. 
 

on that note I don’t think it’s fair to say Kevyn is the fiercely loyal one- it was the coach who only knew how to develop players to want to do what he was comfortable with. 

Edited May 6 by triumph_communes

[GASabresIUFAN]

The Leafs will never ever trade Taveras to the Sabres.  Also Taveras has a full NMC.  If he wants to stay to Tor, he's staying.  

If he wants to move, he'll pick a team that is a Cup contender next year, not the Adams lead Sabres.

What about Sean Monahan as an alternative?  He is 29 (30 in Oct), had a nice rebound season (59 pts - 26g 33a) and can play all 3 forward positions.  He won 54.9% of his faceoffs (nearly 1300 draws) and is from Brampton Ontario.  a two 2 years 10 mill total contract might do the trick.  I think he'd slot very nicely into the 3rd C role, and maybe even drop Cozens to the 3rd C role.  

 

[French Collection]

4 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

I don't think Tuch even has an inkling of a chance of getting traded.

Lindy was one of his heroes growing up, I think he finds an extra gear for Lindy.

[RochesterExpat]

16 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Leafs will never ever trade Taveras to the Sabres.  Also Taveras has a full NMC.  If he wants to stay to Tor, he's staying.  

If he wants to move, he'll pick a team that is a Cup contender next year, not the Adams lead Sabres.

What about Sean Monahan as an alternative?  He is 29 (30 in Oct), had a nice rebound season (59 pts - 26g 33a) and can play all 3 forward positions.  He won 54.9% of his faceoffs (nearly 1300 draws) and is from Brampton Ontario.  a two 2 years 10 mill total contract might do the trick.  I think he'd slot very nicely into the 3rd C role, and maybe even drop Cozens to the 3rd C role.  

 

It’s why I added the hypothetical and mentioned the NMC at the start.

I really like Monahan but I expect the Jets to extend him since they gave up the first to acquire him. I like Toffoli as well but I also expect him to get a new contract.

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, RochesterExpat said:

I’m sure this will be received well, but in a hypothetical Leafs rebuild where NMCs get freely waived (which is what the Make Believe fan base seems to expect), would you consider trading for Tavares as a 3C?

Tavares is overpaid at a cap hit of $11m for one more year. Since few—if any—teams can afford to eat that outright, a 25% retention is probably the starting point. That lowers his hit to $8.25m for the 24-25. Buffalo is able to accommodate that, but that’s probably the starting point for Buffalo to consider and I think it could/should go lower.

His last three seasons:

2021-2022: 79 GP, 27G 49A 76P

2022-2023: 80 GP, 36G 44A 80P

2023-2024: 80 GP, 29G 36A 65P

He turns 34 at the start of the season and Tavares will essentially be a cap dump by Toronto. His acquisition cost should be minimal. Leafs fans will probably celebrate a bag of pucks going their way because, at least in part, the Toronto media likes to scapegoat him for the Leafs playoff exits. His contract is the problem—not the player. He is still a productive center with 1,109 regular season NHL games under his belt.

The big downside to signing him is that he is not a long-term solution. He would be in Buffalo for one season. A younger player with term is ideal, but I don’t know how aggressive Buffalo will be in pursuing such a player. It’s also nigh impossible to really know who is available for trade at reasonable values. History tells us time and time again that players signed in free agency are overpaid.

Buffalo has a need for a 3C. Tavares can also be a scoring winger in the Top 6 if we need him to fill that role due to an injury. He is elite at faceoffs and is a still a threat on the power play. He is more physical than Bertuzzi and Domi—all while taking far fewer penalties. He’s got the NHL experience. He has leadership experience. Contrary to what Toronto fans will tell you, there is a lot to like with Tavares. It’s the albatross of an $11m cap hit that makes him difficult to like.

Would you be willing to trade a prospect like Rosen and a 4th round pick to Toronto for Tavares at 25% and send a 3rd to Anaheim to retain an additional 25% (lowering his cap hit to $6.25m for one year)? We have the assets and this is one player that I don’t think will cost an arm and a leg to acquire because Toronto media is trying to run him and Marner out of town. 

Absolutely