The 6K discussion thread: Can he lead us to the playoffs? Keeping the crease warm for Levi?

[DarthEbriate]

10 minutes ago, shrader said:

There's a major difference here with him being restricted after the year.  There's no 5 years or I walk scenario in play right now, or whatever Ullmark got.  I mean, I guess he could try that with going to Europe, but I don't know how likely that would be.

Ach. Yes, I was thinking longer term and forgot the RFA. It's really a let him go to arbitration, sign him to a 2-year bridge, or give him the starter salary 5x$5M.

[SabreFinn]

18 hours ago, MattPie said:

Huh, Google translate has the translation as "A beautiful bone". Anyone know if that's the case? 😉

(I really kid you not: https://translate.google.com/?sl=fi&tl=en&text=Uopea luuonen&op=translate; but it's one of those where you translate the English and the Finnish comes out completely different, so 🤷‍♂️)

Well... The best translation I could do from that bad spelling is "the one with beautiful bones". Should we simplify that and just call him *****??

[SabreFinn]

7 minutes ago, SabreFinn said:

Well... The best translation I could do from that bad spelling is "the one with beautiful bones". Should we simplify that and just call him *****??

Call him Bo*er

[Weave]

1 hour ago, SabreFinn said:

Call him Bo*er

Hank does not approve.

[Norcal]

 

[DarthEbriate]

As of 2/13, Quality Starts from with goalies 20+ starts (per Hockey-Reference): UPL is ninth in the league. He's been giving them a chance to win almost every game all season long.

>.700 = Hill VGK, Montembault MTL, Swayman BOS, Ullmark BOS
>.640 = Daccord SEA, Hellebuyck WPG, Demko VAN, Skinner EDM, UPL BUF

That's a lot of very defensively sound teams and good goalies, including a guy who won 14 in a row.

Every one of those goalies is at least +4 in their win/loss column except UPL who is -1 (Exempting OTL for simplicity)

[shrader]

13th in GAA. 14th in save%. 4th in shutouts. I they finally have themselves an NHL-level goalie. He can leapfrog a bunch of people very quickly if he keeps on this recent pace. 

[Doohickie]

On 2/7/2024 at 8:44 PM, DarthEbriate said:

Is GM Sheevyn willing to give him a starter salary, or just go Ullmark walking again?

I hope  Kevyn has learned from the Ullmark situation:

1. Don't let a good goalie get away.
2. Looking at Boston:  Just because you have a good goalie doesn't mean you shouldn't have another good goalie.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Yes.

[Believer]

12 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I hope  Kevyn has learned from the Ullmark situation:

1. Don't let a good goalie get away.
2. Looking at Boston:  Just because you have a good goalie doesn't mean you shouldn't have another good goalie.

Takes years to develop a legit NHL goalie… Sabres made the investment in UPL…

We are at the beginning of the payoff stage… Not even Adams can be so stupid as to let UPL walk… Pay the boy… He’s a keeper.

Edited February 14 by Believer

[shrader]

16 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I hope  Kevyn has learned from the Ullmark situation:

1. Don't let a good goalie get away.
2. Looking at Boston:  Just because you have a good goalie doesn't mean you shouldn't have another good goalie.

He’s restricted this off-season. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

8 minutes ago, shrader said:

He’s restricted this off-season. 

I think the chicken head dude and others are advocating for a long(ish) term deal to buy some UFA years.  6K will be UFA in 2 years, I think.

Edited February 14 by Sabres Fan in NS
more goodly ..

[Doohickie]

3 hours ago, Believer said:

Not even Adams can be so stupid as to let UPL walk… Pay the boy… He’s a keeper.

But he was that stupid once... with Ullmark.

3 hours ago, shrader said:

He’s restricted this off-season. 

I understand that.  But don't Reinhart him by giving him a minimal bridge deal to free agency, sending the message he's not part of the long term.

Edited February 14 by Doohickie

[GASabresIUFAN]

Can’t wait for KA to give out another big contract for a player with one good year.

There is no doubt UPL is having a great year, but he isn’t anywhere close to an Ullmark comparison.  Ullmark was good in the AHL and was good for 3 years in the NHL before he walked.  UPL was bad in the minors and bad in the NHL for the last 3 years before this season.

This is a guy you give a 3 year bridge deal too.  Make sure that he is actually good before committing long-term especially with Levi in the organization.  Think Cal Petersen and his terrible contract.  The Sabres can’t afford anymore 1 year wonders like Cozens, Power, and Mule. 

Edited February 14 by GASabresIUFAN

[Drag0nDan]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

I hope  Kevyn has learned from the Ullmark situation:

1. Don't let a good goalie get away.
2. Looking at Boston:  Just because you have a good goalie doesn't mean you shouldn't have another good goalie.

Yup - Swayman and Ullmark are a really nice tandem.  Able to keep both rested and ready, and let the chips fall how they may.  You tend to want to ride one goalie in the playoffs, but having two options is nice.  I hope Buffalo is able to get some level of consistency with UPL and Levi in the next year.  

[Drag0nDan]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Can’t wait for KA to give out another big contract for a player with one good year.

There is no doubt UPL is having a great year, but he isn’t anywhere close to an Ullmark comparison.  Ullmark was good in the AHL and was good for 3 years in the NHL before he walked.  UPL was bad in the minors and bad in the NHL for the last 3 years before this season.

This is a guy you give a 3 year bridge deal too.  Make sure that he is actually good before committing long-term especially with Levi in the organization.  Think Cal Petersen and his terrible contract.  The Sabres can’t afford anymore 1 year wonders like Cozens, Power, and Mule. 

I tend to agree.  Just feels too early to lock him in.  75 games, and probably more bad than good games.

Lately watching him i feel like he has turned a corner in some regards.  He's confidently using his large frame to take away a lot of net.  He's redirecting rebounds to the walls much more than in the past.  His glove has become a bit of an asset.  He's also seeming to read the play faster to take away the net.  

I could see why you would extend him - but I'm with you.  Just need to see it more to fully buy in.  

[mjd1001]

Unless he falls off of a cliff, I'm all for locking him up.  Of course, EVERYTHING is based on what you have to pay him. He wants 7 years for $8m per year, then no way.  But $3.5-$4m per year...even $5m per year (depending on the length) I'm OK with.  If you signed him for that value and he regresses....not good, but its not going to kill your team.  But NOT doing that, and not having him as a potential good starter........well...I think the risk/reward is leaning more toward signing him to a semi-long term deal, even if its for $1m or more per year more than you want.

If you have to give him 4 years, $20 million ($5m per year), and that is what he wants.....do you say no?  Is this team better with giving him that money for what we all know now? or walking away from that.....who else do you get for $3-4million per year instead who you know will be better than UPL for sure?

Edited February 14 by mjd1001

[Norcal]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Can’t wait for KA to give out another big contract for a player with one good year.

There is no doubt UPL is having a great year, but he isn’t anywhere close to an Ullmark comparison.  Ullmark was good in the AHL and was good for 3 years in the NHL before he walked.  UPL was bad in the minors and bad in the NHL for the last 3 years before this season.

This is a guy you give a 3 year bridge deal too.  Make sure that he is actually good before committing long-term especially with Levi in the organization.  Think Cal Petersen and his terrible contract.  The Sabres can’t afford anymore 1 year wonders like Cozens, Power, and Mule. 

Take it easy.

UPL has eclipsed whatever level you thought he would already.

He's in make you eat your words territory right now. 

Let's GO Upie!!

 

[Norcal]

 

[Thorny]

51 minutes ago, Norcal said:

 

I’m not sure what his point is in including Levi, but it looks good on UPL

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Can’t wait for KA to give out another big contract for a player with one good year.

There is no doubt UPL is having a great year, but he isn’t anywhere close to an Ullmark comparison.  Ullmark was good in the AHL and was good for 3 years in the NHL before he walked.  UPL was bad in the minors and bad in the NHL for the last 3 years before this season.

This is a guy you give a 3 year bridge deal too.  Make sure that he is actually good before committing long-term especially with Levi in the organization.  Think Cal Petersen and his terrible contract.  The Sabres can’t afford anymore 1 year wonders like Cozens, Power, and Mule. 

I agree with you that the bridge deal approach is the better approach to take. When it comes to evaluating goalies, it is best to be humble with one's early assessments. One year the goalies can look like the second coming of Hasek, and the next year the goalie can fall back into being an indistinguishable mediocre goalie. What's encouraging about the position is that there will be internal competition with Levi in the system. 

[DarthEbriate]

51 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I agree with you that the bridge deal approach is the better approach to take. When it comes to evaluating goalies, it is best to be humble with one's early assessments. One year the goalies can look like the second coming of Hasek, and the next year the goalie can fall back into being an indistinguishable mediocre goalie. What's encouraging about the position is that there will be internal competition with Levi in the system. 

Goalies are notoriously chaotic. Just look at Shesterkin's numbers this season in every column.... except for wins/losses.

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There is no doubt UPL is having a great year, but he isn’t anywhere close to an Ullmark comparison.  Ullmark was good in the AHL and was good for 3 years in the NHL before he walked.  UPL was bad in the minors and bad in the NHL for the last 3 years before this season.

Re: Ullmark/UPL. I think Ullmark always had the higher floor and starting point -- he was always very good. UPL was a bigger project boom-or-bust type. Whose ceiling is higher (probably Ullmark by a bit) is still TBD and will also depend on the team around them.

But one note to bear in mind in their comparison is games played in AHL/NHL.

By the time Ullmark got his full-time NHL gig (2018-19, age 25) he'd played 127 AHL games and 26 NHL games. 

In contrast, UPL got his full-time NHL gig last year (2022-23, age 23) having played only 60 AHL games (he added 9 last year), 13 NHL games, and another 23 in the ECHL, impacted by COVID seasons. And then, he entered into silly 3-headed goalie rotations. Only this season has UPL eclipsed Ullmark's 153 NHL/AHL GP before going full-time. Goalies need development games and we're finally starting to see him "get it" at professional level.

Next: sustain it, week after week, month-by-month. (That's what the bridge is for.)

[shrader]

4 hours ago, Doohickie said:

But he was that stupid once... with Ullmark.

I understand that.  But don't Reinhart him by giving him a minimal bridge deal to free agency, sending the message he's not part of the long term.

3 years feels right to me. 

[DarthEbriate]

4 hours ago, Doohickie said:

But he was that stupid once... with Ullmark.

I understand that.  But don't Reinhart him by giving him a minimal bridge deal to free agency, sending the message he's not part of the long term.

The bridge for UPL wouldn't be the issue. The issue is, if over the course of the bridge you get 2.5 seasons of above-average goaltending, you lock him up to a real starter's term/salary before he gets to UFA and can pick the best defensive team in the league and go win a Vezina. (While you're busy worrying about "blocking" Ratzlaff and Leinonen.)

[Doohickie]

Just now, DarthEbriate said:

(While you're busy worrying about "blocking" Ratzlaff and Leinonen.)

Someone needs to talk to Kevyn about a bird in the hand being worth two in the bush.  UPL is here now... in the hand.