This team has taken all the goodwill built up over the last year and...

[PASabreFan]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

This turn of events has bummed me the fu*k out in a way that I could not have anticipated.

The Sabres keep finding new ways to hurt me.

I wonder where the bring RJ onto the ice Sabres went. It's a good lesson for the kids out there: year to year improvement is not a cinch.

Individual growth? Sure. Some nice numbers and some big contracts. It happened in the context of no defensive system to speak of and no focus on or concern about winning.

Recipe for what we've ended up seeing this month IMHO.

[Mango]

4 hours ago, Cascade Youth said:

This entire organization has been flipping its fans the middle finger for over a decade.  

I have some major frustrations with McBeane. But I always ground myself with the Pegula lead Sabres Team. I have no interest in replacing McBeane, because we have seen how much worse it can get when the Pegula's have to make decisions. 

[dudacek]

Did not see this coming. We were doing too many things right for too long.

We spent a lot of time talking last season and into the fall about how bad goaltending was going to crush development by making the skaters 2nd-guess themselves. I guess we shouldn't be surprised to finally see it manifest itself.

Still feeling generally positive about the direction of the team — the people in charge are good people and the players have talent.

But my god it can be tough being a Sabres fan.

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by dudacek

[TheAud]

5 hours ago, Pimlach said:

True to a point, but how do you explain the losses to CBJ, Philly, and Nashville last night.  They are getting killed by the lower tier teams too. 

Two members of this team have played real playoff hockey - Okposso and Anderson.  Both are likely retiring after this season. A few other have a couple games.  

The veteran leadership is almost nonexistent.  

Will Adams address that?

I don't disagree at all with your point, but we can also include Tuch with 66 post season games in his NHL career including a Cup finals. 

[Pimlach]

34 minutes ago, TheAud said:

I don't disagree at all with your point, but we can also include Tuch with 66 post season games in his NHL career including a Cup finals. 

True.  Missed him.  He probably the most seasoned in playoffs.  
 

Skinner and Z never been there - pretty sad 

[matter2003]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

This. 

We've been conditioned now by atrocious, echl level goaltending, to view any defensive breakdowns as this major super issue of death when in reality, all teams see chances against in games but our goalies couldn't stop a motorcycle with the great wall of China. 

Not exactly true. Up until the last two games, Anderson was 7th in the NHL in save percentage. The issue simply is that he can't play enough games at his age.

 

But the other two, outside of a 5 or 6 game run by UPL, for sure.

3 hours ago, Mango said:

I have some major frustrations with McBeane. But I always ground myself with the Pegula lead Sabres Team. I have no interest in replacing McBeane, because we have seen how much worse it can get when the Pegula's have to make decisions. 

Typically you don't replace people who have gotten you to elite status after 17 years with no playoffs.

Edited March 22, 2023 by matter2003

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

 

[Thorny]

13 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Just wait till you see what a difference goaltending makes.

It's absurd how bad goaltending is on home ice, and it's getting worse.

Outshoot the Bruins... 26-25, 2.58 xGA, 3.33 xGF, result 7-0 loss, UPL .720 sv%.

Outshoot the Preds 31-27, 3.2 xGA, 4.2 xGF, result 7-3 loss, Anderson .700 sv%

As someone who played at a high level it's absolutely critical that you trust your goaltender to make saves.  If you don't have that trust, then it's virtually impossible to play your normal game.

And presumably we need to “play our game” to develop, anyways, regardless of where the goals sit re: winning. 

There simply isn’t any course of action available for KA this summer than to pay the cost to bring in a starter they can be reasonably confident in. That’s certainly not squinting hard and long enough at some advanced metrics ala Comrie, either. Not a buy low opportunity. A completely necessary addition that the rebuild likely depends on

or just hope the Fort doesn’t collapse before Levi takes over the “perennial vezina winner” slot Adams has been holding for him unblocked. 

Either of the two

13 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

We might finish with close to a 50 goal scorer, and maybe 3, possibly 4 30 goal scorers and not make the playoffs? That’s crazy. 

Scoring isn’t at a premium in today’s game

[Thorny]

On 9/20/2022 at 5:29 PM, Thorny said:

What do WE want to set the over/under at, for success? It doesn’t seem the appetite is strong for making the playoffs to be the baseline. 90 points? 85 points? 

Exceeding 81 has got to be the lowest baseline conceivable for arguable success, me thinks. Can’t see an argument for Adams taking 3 seasons to end up failing to field a team that matches/exceeds Murray’s Eichel-rookie-year, 81 point finish from 2015/2016. 

Exceeding it would also only be nhl .500, which is below average.

 

13 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Under Dan Bylsma we ended the season with 81 pts. We currently have 72 with 12 games remaining. 7-13 since the break, if we keep that pace we might win 6 which would put us 3 pts ahead of the Bylsma team come season end. 

PROGRESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’ve been beating this drum for a while, as you can see above. We simply need to finish with 82 or more 

[PromoTheRobot]

I must have missed the press conference at the start of the year where Adams and Granato promised a playoff berth. In fact all I recall most experts saying was this team was still years away.

[PerreaultForever]

2 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I must have missed the press conference at the start of the year where Adams and Granato promised a playoff berth. In fact all I recall most experts saying was this team was still years away.

Oh no, I think most everyone felt their time line was a long one but as fans a lot of us disagreed with it. After 11 years it's kind of hard to buy in to "patience". 

The dumb thing is sticking to a plan and not adapting and adjusting your plan to fit the realities of what occurs on the ice and in the locker room. Plans need to be fluid and adaptable and moments need to be seized. Look how fast Yzerman did a pivot from make the playoffs this year to acquire draft capital even if it means moving out popular players. KA's done what? Our FAs go for nothing and all he did was bring in Stillman to replace Fitzgerald and traded for a dud Minnesota didn't want. 

We were close for a moment, but I guess KA and Granato knew we didn't have what it takes so they didn't bother to try to get us there. 

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I must have missed the press conference at the start of the year where Adams and Granato promised a playoff berth. In fact all I recall most experts saying was this team was still years away.

If you check the expectations thread around here most of us had it at ~ high 80s low 90s w/o expecting playoffs 

[JKB1646]

6 hours ago, Pimlach said:

How does it look like we have our goalie?   What are you seeing?   We are still at Tokarski/Dell levels of play.  

Devon Levi is the greatest college goalie to ever play. Read that aloud to yourself...Greatest college goalie to ever play in the NCAA. He will win the Richter award back to back. Better than Richter, Helleybuck,  Demko, Swayman, Tim(Crazy)Thomas, Bishop, Quick and yes Ryan Miller. We could only be so lucky if he turns out to be our next Ryan Miller. I think he will be better. The Sam Rienhardt trade will be the steal of the decade my friends!

[Zamboni]

6 minutes ago, JKB1646 said:

Devon Levi is the greatest college goalie to ever play. Read that aloud to yourself...Greatest college goalie to ever play in the NCAA. He will win the Richter award back to back. Better than Richter, Helleybuck,  Demko, Swayman, Tim(Crazy)Thomas, Bishop, Quick and yes Ryan Miller. We could only be so lucky if he turns out to be our next Ryan Miller. I think he will be better. The Sam Rienhardt trade will be the steal of the decade my friends!

That was nice to read. I’ll keep my expectations grounded. And if Levi exceeds them, I’ll be happy. And if he doesn’t, I won’t be very disappointed. But everyone can do their own thing … 

[Pimlach]

10 minutes ago, JKB1646 said:

Devon Levi is the greatest college goalie to ever play. Read that aloud to yourself...Greatest college goalie to ever play in the NCAA. He will win the Richter award back to back. Better than Richter, Helleybuck,  Demko, Swayman, Tim(Crazy)Thomas, Bishop, Quick and yes Ryan Miller. We could only be so lucky if he turns out to be our next Ryan Miller. I think he will be better. The Sam Rienhardt trade will be the steal of the decade my friends!

Sure. And Jack Eichel was a generational talent.  Let see what he does in the NHL before we anoint him.  I

[JKB1646]

2 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Sure. And Jack Eichel was a generational talent.  Let see what he does in the NHL before we anoint him.  I

The only thing John Eichel was generational at was snorting, drinking and being a turd. Wrong guy. Levi is a stud in net. 

[JKB1646]

Yes I have seen him play in person. The NHL gurus look for your 6-5" type goalies. That's become the new norm. Levi has a Bottom half like Marty St Louis at 6'-0" , 188 lbs with a 40" waste and thighs that would make Cardi B jealous. Its the reason he rarely is out of position. Yes it might take a few years but our netminder is no longer the issue. We need some D that actually play D

[Thorny]

13 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Sure. And Jack Eichel was a generational talent.  Let see what he does in the NHL before we anoint him.  I

If Levi is capable of being the best player on a first place Sabres team, I certainly take it 

And run

[mjd1001]

27 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If you check the expectations thread around here most of us had it at ~ high 80s low 90s w/o expecting playoffs 

Here it is:

-Looks like 6 percent said playoffs for sure

-42 percent said 'near 90 points' and a chance for the playoffs

-36 percent said between 80-90 points

-14 percent said under 80 points.

When re-reading the thread, I get the impression the overall/averge/median expectation was about 85 points, and a lot of "depends on how good the goaltending is".  I'd say we are very close to those 'consensus' exectations.

 

 

 

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Here it is:

-Looks like 6 percent said playoffs for sure

-42 percent said 'near 90 points' and a chance for the playoffs

-36 percent said between 80-90 points

-14 percent said under 80 points.

When re-reading the thread, I get the impression the overall/averge/median expectation was about 85 points, and a lot of "depends on how good the goaltending is".  I'd say we are very close to those 'consensus' exectations.

 

 

 

Nah. 

The numbers you just used have almost 50% saying playoffs or 90 points. 85 would be a fair middle ground if the rest were 80 and below. But there’s another almost 40% we are assigning to 80-90, so let’s say THAT number is 85. And finally, the 14% at 80 and below. 

Thats a high 80s breakdown mathematically 

48%: 90+

36%: ~85

14%: 80-

The nearly half saying 90 or playoffs pulls much harder on that ~85 than the 14% underselling 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Thorny

[mjd1001]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Nah. 

The numbers you just used have almost 50% saying playoffs or 90 points. 85 would be a fair middle ground if the rest were 80 and below. But there’s another almost 40% we are assigning to 80-90, so let’s say THAT number is 85. And finally, the 14% at 80 and below. 

Thats a high 80s breakdown mathematically 

48%: 90+

40%: ~85

14%: 80-

The 42 percent that said near 90 points and possibly the playoffs...I used 90 points in my math (the current level needed to get the last wildcard and multiplied it by 42 percent.

The 36 percent that said between 80-90...I used 85 points and multiplied that by 36 percent.

The 6 percent that said 100 points and the playoffs..I multiplied 100 points by 6 percent.

The final 16 percent were under 80, so I multiplied that '16' percent by 75 points.

Do the math and you get about 86 points.  I did it in my head previously and got 85...so the actual math as above is 86.

[PromoTheRobot]

48 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If you check the expectations thread around here most of us had it at ~ high 80s low 90s w/o expecting playoffs 

That could still happen if they shake this mental funk.

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

The 42 percent that said near 90 points and possibly the playoffs...I used 90 points in my math (the current level needed to get the last wildcard and multiplied it by 42 percent.

The 36 percent that said between 80-90...I used 85 points and multiplied that by 36 percent.

The 6 percent that said 100 points and the playoffs..I multiplied 100 points by 6 percent.

The final 16 percent were under 80, so I multiplied that '16' percent by 75 points.

Do the math and you get about 86 points.  I did it in my head previously and got 85...so the actual math as above is 86.

What are we doing here... look:

63 voters 

100 points - 6

90+ points - 27

Between 80/90 (say, 85) - 23

Between 70/80 (say, 75) - 8

Last place (pick whatever number, 68?) - buffalonil 

 

6x100 + 27x90 + 23x85 + 8x75 + 1x68 = 

600 + 2430 + 1955 + 600 + 68 =

...5653.

Dividing this number by voters gets the average. 5653/63

=90 points 

 

Thanks for coming to my math ted talk 

 

 

 

[Thorny]

10 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

That could still happen if they shake this mental funk.

Agree. Totally watching for it - I’m not one to write off the rest because I’ve been preaching the opposite and do every year: every game factors into our final point total, and picking one number? That’s the best one 

[Sidc3000]

I don’t see all the problems being fixed in one off-season. I’m sure the Sabres are still on many players no-trade lists because they are still way too green and haven’t proven anything yet. Especially since the city isn’t a prime destination for many players. i think that are some of the reasons why Adams went all-in on the youth movement. On top of that, he is still trying to keep payroll at a minimum knowing he will have to pay more players in the not so distant future. 
 

IMO whoever is coming will probably be someone who is somewhat beyond their prime and looking for a place to impart some wisdom while still making a difference and is willing to not break the bank.