2023-24 Sabres Early Thoughts

[Thorny]

Lance L on Marek also said he expects KO back next season. 

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Lance L on Marek also said he expects KO back next season. 

Fully expect that to be entirely his own decision.  But where he is age wise and with the ages of his kids, that new house in Minny says he may have already made that decision.

Lance would have the opportunity to have broached that subject with Okposo, so he should have a better read of the tea leaves than we do, but Kyle has said publicly that his time in Buffalo on this roster is growing short.  (Whether that means he leaves this year or in a year or 2, or if he's just stating the obvious that nobody defeats father time remains open to interpretation.)

[Weave]

40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Putting all your eggs into a rookie goalie who has never played an NHL game is an exercise in job security?

 

 

When the mantra is, wait for everyone to develop it is.

[Thorny]

49 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

For good reason: job security.

It’s tough to say. “Levi as job security“ only works as a Plan with large-scale buy-in from the fan base* to consciously keeping expectations manageable. It’s tough for me to guess if this would be viable, as it depends on who you ask. Lots of calls for playoffs to be the expectation next year, but there’s also a lot of conveyed sentiment that we already are on the right track, no? Almost as if “being on track” is the goal itself, in the age of “watching as GM**”. More so than tangible results. I’m having a difficulty determining if timeline is any sort of concern at all to this base: ie, do results *ever* matter if we are improving in perception? In the (obviously hypothetical) universe where we improve by one point every season, is that worthy of a 20 year GM term where we find ourselves in the playoffs at the end? 

Its all really interesting to me. No firm conclusions. I obviously put much more emphasis on the resource of Time (and therefore, timeline) than some others, re: the justification, viability, and analysis of the plan. 

* caveat here being if the owners are so bought in to a long leash it doesn’t matter what the fans think 

**i find this particularly interesting. Those that watch in this very principled, “arm chair GM” way often say those that watch more emotionally do so as if it’s a “video game”, and not tuned in the mechanics of how it all really works. But I do the “online GM thing (poorly, sure)” all the time, and I actually see THAT as the video game. An online simulator. THAT’s the game. 

I think real life sometimes is remembering this is, in its realist form, actually a professional *performance*. It’s a show. An entertainment product being delivered to store shelves. The sport and league may actually be best served by remembering its *actually ok* to value, most, seeing your team Win a Game in the only moment that, really, exists: now. 

Tldr:

I bought LEGO: The Hobbit for PS4 years ago. Included missions for An Unexpected Journey, and Desolation of Smaug - somehow they released it as an “unfinished product” as the missions for the third film were promised to be released “for free”, as dlc later on, all you had to do was “buy in” for the initial release. Well I bought it and beat it. 

They never released the content for part 3. 

[Randall Flagg]

47 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Putting all your eggs into a rookie goalie who has never played an NHL game is an exercise in job security?

 

 

Yeah. We know comrie was a flop right away. Instant bad grade on that move. You can string out poor performances by Levi a lot longer with the narrative the entire organization is hammering every day without needing to supply a grade yet 

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Yeah. We know comrie was a flop right away. Instant bad grade on that move. You can string out poor performances by Levi a lot longer with the narrative the entire organization is hammering every day without needing to supply a grade yet 

This is painfully cynical and the fact that many of you seem to buy into it as a major motivating factor in the decision-making process makes me sad.

 

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Yeah. We know comrie was a flop right away. Instant bad grade on that move. You can string out poor performances by Levi a lot longer with the narrative the entire organization is hammering every day without needing to supply a grade yet 

Didn't Comrie win his first 4 games or something?

[JohnC]

I don't know what the organization's plans are for the net next year. And I doubt that the person who tweeted that the organization is going to keep the status quo (minus Anderson) entering next year doesn't know either. But if that is the plan, then it would be even more of an imperative to bring in a couple of defenders to upgrade the blueline unit. Also, if the tweeter turns out to be accurate, there will be a need to require a greater emphasis on team defense (including forwards) as was exhibited in the Ranger game. 

Right now, with or without the tweet, there seems to be too much reliance on the quick development of Levi. That bothers me. 

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Didn't Comrie win his first 4 games or something?

What's a shame about the Comrie situation is that because he got hurt early on and has had to contend with injuries this season, he didn't get a fair enough trial to demonstrate what kind of player he is capable of being. The book on him as a Sabre is still unknown. 

[Thorny]

17 minutes ago, JohnC said:

What's a shame about the Comrie situation is that because he got hurt early on and has had to contend with injuries this season, he didn't get a fair enough trial to demonstrate what kind of player he is capable of being. The book on him as a Sabre is still unknown. 

*twitches*

[dudacek]

24 minutes ago, Thorny said:Almost as if “being on track” is the goal itself, in the age of “watching as GM**”. More so than tangible results. I’m having a difficulty determining if timeline is any sort of concern at all to this base: ie, do results *ever* matter if we are improving in perception? In the (obviously hypothetical) universe where we improve by one point every season, is that worthy of a 20 year GM term where we find ourselves in the playoffs at the end? 

Its 

I had a goal for this season of not getting too invested in what I called “Armchair GMing” - “why aren’t they doing this? They need more of that” and simply try to enjoy the games in and of themselves as entertainment and focus on appreciating the things that I like. Stepped back from posting as much for a long stretch to help myself with the process.

Can’t say I’ve always been successful, but I’ve tried, and for the most part this team has given me the most fun of any Sabres team in years. 

It’s interesting to me that we’ve used almost the identical phrase to describe what seem to be exactly the opposite approaches. In retrospect your phrasing is better.

In answer to your question: for me, results of the whole matter now, but they matter less than improvement from the pieces. At some point those items are going to trade places, but I don’t think that was ever going to be this year.

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

*twitches*

I'm not sure what you mean by "twitches" but the goalie situation in general entering next season makes me queasy. It seems that too much is being on foisted on the shoulders on Levi. 

[dudacek]

25 minutes ago, JohnC said:

What's a shame about the Comrie situation is that because he got hurt early on and has had to contend with injuries this season, he didn't get a fair enough trial to demonstrate what kind of player he is capable of being. The book on him as a Sabre is still unknown. 

The book on him as a Sabre might be unfinished, but it’s not unknown.

In his 17 games he has not proven himself to be an NHL caliber goalie. He has done no more to suggest he should get a shot to carry the load next year than Dustin Tokarski did last year.

Edited March 13, 2023 by dudacek

[JohnC]

Just now, dudacek said:

The book on him as a Sabre might be unfinished, but it’s not unknown.

In his 17 games he has not proven himself to be an NHL caliber goalie.

Especially for goalies, intermittent play is not as revealing as a fuller body of work. Maybe he can be a solid backup? Based on this season I just can't say. My sense (guess) is that the GM has not written him off. 

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm not sure what you mean by "twitches" but the goalie situation in general entering next season makes me queasy. It seems that too much is being on foisted on the shoulders on Levi. 

I read it in Adams’ voice and it sounded plausible 

[dudacek]

Just now, JohnC said:

Especially for goalies, intermittent play is not as revealing as a fuller body of work. Maybe he can be a solid backup? Based on this season I just can't say. My sense (guess) is that the GM has not written him off. 

Oh he’s under contract and definitely will be in the mix.

He’s also shown in the past that he can be better than his performance this year has shown.

It’s just the idea that someone who has performed to the level he has this year might not be targeted for an upgrade that makes people twitchy.

At least people who care about making the playoffs.

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

I read it in Adams’ voice and it sounded plausible 

I not saying this as a criticism but as an observation. It just seems that the GM laid out a rebuilding plan and is reluctant to deviate from it. So, he's going to continue on continuing on. If you are going to bet money on what the GM is going to do---bet on him continuing on with what he is already doing. 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Oh he’s under contract and definitely will be in the mix.

He’s also shown in the past that he can be better than his performance this year has shown.

It’s just the idea that someone who has performed to the level he has this year might not be targeted for an upgrade that makes people twitchy.

At least people who care about making the playoffs.

The both of us watched the Ranger game and for the most part came away with similar observations. How the Sabres played in that game was demonstrably different from how they usually played. There was much more attention and determination to play a more defensive brand of hockey. The forwards in this game were more inclined to be responsible in their defensive assignments. That type of two-way play, instead of looser up and down play, can do a lot to cover for the goalie/s. So if the goalie position is not upgraded in the near term, then the style of play has to be adjusted to cover for the goalie. 

[steveoath]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Sigh 

That's not what was said on the podcast at all. Friedman surmised that the Sabres will give Levi every opportunity to win a job if he's good enough.

[JohnC]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I had a goal for this season of not getting too invested in what I called “Armchair GMing” - “why aren’t they doing this? They need more of that” and simply try to enjoy the games in and of themselves as entertainment and focus on appreciating the things that I like. Stepped back from posting as much for a long stretch to help myself with the process.

Can’t say I’ve always been successful, but I’ve tried, and for the most part this team has given me the most fun of any Sabres team in years. 

It’s interesting to me that we’ve used almost the identical phrase to describe what seem to be exactly the opposite approaches. In retrospect your phrasing is better.

In answer to your question: for me, results of the whole matter now, but they matter less than improvement from the pieces. At some point those items are going to trade places, but I don’t think that was ever going to be this year.

I've listened to Granato and KA on more than a few times this year. It seems that you have captured their mind-set about this team, season and philosophy. They believe in their rebuilding approach and are invested in it. It appears that they are sticking with it. Is it a demonstration of fortitude/resoluteness or is it a demonstration of inflexibility and stubbornness? Time will tell. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

its just going to take the admittance that a goalie for us DOES have the value requisite to us “overpaying” the LEAGUE’s average reference point 

The very nature of the type of game Granato wants to play screams for an athletic goalie who excels at making saves in high danger situations as opposed to a shot-blocking systems goalie who excels at not making mistakes.

(Fights the urge to check and see if anybody has left Northeastern in the past hour.)

[GASabresIUFAN]

If KA is wishing and hoping that Levi is ready as early as next season, he is out of his friggin mind.  To ask a 21 year old kid who has never played a minute of pro hockey to save your goaltending situation isn’t fair to Devon, unfair to the team, a stupid move for the organization, and another reason for the fans to be disappointed with the franchise.  

KA needs to get real help in Buffalo this off-season, let Levi get settled in Rochester to start next season and if he forces his way to Buffalo during the season so be it. KA can make adjustments if that miracle happens. 

[Randall Flagg]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Didn't Comrie win his first 4 games or something?

I shouldn't have used the phrase "right away," I just meant "by the time the season got real," ie late February

[Randall Flagg]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

This is painfully cynical and the fact that many of you seem to buy into it as a major motivating factor in the decision-making process makes me sad.

 

Every position behind the Sabres bench, as well as that of the GM, is held by a first-timer. Guys who might never get another shot. Even if it's subconscious, I think that a small part of what they do is done with this in mind, because of how deliberate and cautious they have been to this point, and the biggest piece of evidence in its favor would be if they truly did go this route in net this summer, when every other facet of the organization, roster, and fanbase is begging and screaming for wins/playoffs and is now capable of getting there

Edited March 14, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[PerreaultForever]

There's a bit of an out of the box option in goal that might not be impossible and that's Carter Hart. He's an RFA in 2024 and will be due some big money but there's some talk out of Philly that the Flyers might be willing to deal him for their rebuild as they have big cap issues with all the bad Fletcher signings and might not be able to pay him anyway. They also have Ersson in net who they are high on so maybe they would trade Hart.

Picks and prospects for Hart? I'd do it.