2023-24 Sabres Early Thoughts

[Crusader1969]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I just think that if he’s good enough to stick until December, considering our F depth, in a year where playoffs are the goal, that means he’s playing pretty darn well. The rookies who are excelling usually *don’t* get loaned to the WJC. I really think next season team success is the primary priority. If we keep him up after 9 and he’s really hitting a wall, sure, loan him 

He played 9 games total. 

They play their 9 games.  Miss a few games and get sent to the AHL for a conditioning stint then to the world juniors.  
Just my guess on how they will handle Savoie 

Him being too good to loan to Canada is definitely the best case scenario 

[Brawndo]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

So Savoie will be the best option to aid our playoff push through the 1st 3 months of the season, but yet mid year we ship him out to the WJC, to the detriment of the roster? 

If Savoie sticks in camp it’s because it’s best for the team, now, so I would be operating by those same terms mid way.

On another note, does anyone have the underlying metrics on Girgensons? Not doubting his aptitude but I’ve only seen eye test arguments made in his favour 

id guess they’d be pretty reasonable? No actual idea truthfully though 

80th Percentile for Defensive Metrics, 4th for Offensive Metrics per Evolving Hockey’s Model

[LGR4GM]

47 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

They play their 9 games.  Miss a few games and get sent to the AHL for a conditioning stint then to the world juniors.  
Just my guess on how they will handle Savoie 

Him being too good to loan to Canada is definitely the best case scenario 

Savoie isn't being sent to the AHL next year, for any reason. He'll get sent to the wjc though if he makes the team. 

[Taro T]

13 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Savoie isn't being sent to the AHL next year, for any reason. He'll get sent to the wjc though if he makes the team. 

Theoretically, he might at the end of the year after his junior season is over if he doens't look adequate in his initial early season stint wiht the Sabres.  But that is fairly unlikely.  (It also has the added benefit of not just getting him to play against men, but also ensures he doesn't exceed his 9 game threshold.

[LGR4GM]

32 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Theoretically, he might at the end of the year after his junior season is over if he doens't look adequate in his initial early season stint wiht the Sabres.  But that is fairly unlikely.  (It also has the added benefit of not just getting him to play against men, but also ensures he doesn't exceed his 9 game threshold.

Ah, good call. That would be the limit I think. Post junior season in late March going to Rochester. Seems unlikely as I think he will be in Buffalo. 

[DarthEbriate]

35 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Theoretically, he might at the end of the year after his junior season is over if he doens't look adequate in his initial early season stint wiht the Sabres.  But that is fairly unlikely.  (It also has the added benefit of not just getting him to play against men, but also ensures he doesn't exceed his 9 game threshold.

Good call -- the Shane Wright approach.

A couple games as a 2/3W --- go have fun and try to get your first NHL points. Then give him the Condensed Krebs. Put him at center between Girgs and Jost/KO. Learn the expectations on defense, just focus on cycling with veterans on offense.

5 games in Rochester. Then WJC. Then back to Winnipeg.

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Ah, good call. That would be the limit I think. Post junior season in late March going to Rochester. Seems unlikely as I think he will be in Buffalo. 

I’d like to see Savoie in Rochester this April, like we saw with Sam Reinhart.

Not going to happen because Winnipeg is probably going to the Memorial Cup.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I’d like to see Savoie in Rochester this April, like we saw with Sam Reinhart.

Not going to happen because Winnipeg is probably going to the Memorial Cup.

Like you say, it comes down to timing.  And don't follow Juniors closely, but would be surprised if they don't end up in the Memorial Cup.

[Thorny]

17 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Savoie isn't being sent to the AHL next year, for any reason. He'll get sent to the wjc though if he makes the team. 

Hopefully he’s playing too well to be sent down to the WJC

Although reading this thread I appear to be the only one even allowing for the *possibility* he sticks with the team next season

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Hopefully he’s playing too well to be sent down to the WJC

Although reading this thread I appear to be the only one even allowing for the *possibility* he sticks with the team next season

Kinda depends on where the roster goes next year.

Tage, Cozens, Krebs, Tuch Skinner Quinn Peterka, Greenway and Girgensons will be taking 9 forward spots.

If Mitts, Olofsson, Jost and Okposo are back, there's no room for him, unless you want him in the role Hinostroza and Asplund had this year.

But if Mitts or Vic is moved for D help, I can certainly see him getting a shot in a JJ/Quinn/Krebs role while one of those guys moves up the pecking order.

It's another one of the reasons I see Vic probably being moved.

Top 10 picks frequently make the NHL in D2 years, especially when they are producing the way Savoie has during the past few months.

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Hopefully he’s playing too well to be sent down to the WJC

Although reading this thread I appear to be the only one even allowing for the *possibility* he sticks with the team next season

There's a very real possibility he makes the team next year.  But it isn't a slam dunk unless at least 1 guy on the current roster moves on and likely unless 2 guys on the current roster move on.

[Two or less]

On 3/5/2023 at 3:57 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Bold summer prediction.

KA will trade Jokiharju and Olofsson over the summer to raise assets to help KA get a better partner for Power (and or goaltending) and then they'll run with the Malachi Bros (Stillman and Lyubushkin) as the third pair. 

For example, maybe we can work a deal with LV to get Theodore from them for Joki and Rosen.

I agree with Olofsson. I think he's played himself out of Buffalo.

I don't agree with Jokiharju though. I know he drives some people crazy, he never misses the chance to pass the puck to the other team, but even with Joki on the team the Sabres need to add a d-men. He's under contract for only $2.5 million next season, as we saw this season we need more then just 6 reliable defenseman.

For his down falls, he's still just 23 years old and has 252 NHL games played.

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 hours ago, Two or less said:

For his down falls, he's still just 23 years old and has 252 NHL games played.

.and best suited for 3rd pairing duty, but KA has invested in two significantly more physical D for the 3rd pair in Stillman and Lyubishkin.  I think Joki has value and would bring a decent asset in return.  I don't mind if he comes back as a 3rd pair player, but priority No 2. this off-season, after fixing the goaltending, is a better partner for Power.

As to the forwards, I posted these stats in the "Who Sits" thread.

Quote

 

JJP has 3 points in his last 20 games w a -8.  VO has no points in his last 10 games with a -10.  Terrible.

Truthfully KO should be on the list as well.  He has 3 points in his last 15 games with a -5.  Not exactly helping the team.  Z has also disappeared with 3 points (all goals) in his last 20 games.  At least he is an even +/-.

 

JJP will back because he is so talented and I'm not worried about him improving year over year. The other 3, we probably can do better.

[Flashsabre]

They need to move on from Joker, Bryson and Clague in order to move forward. 

Maybe Johnson signs and earns a spot. But top 4 RHD and solid 3rd pairing LHD are positions to gone in on.

Stillman adds some size and grit and is a decent 7-8 option.

A Demko for UPL+ deal might be interesting if Van look to move him in the summer. Demko-Comrie next year with Levi moving in the following season would give them solid goaltending for the foreseeable future.

Up front a lot of the change will be from within. Where does Rousek, Kulich and Savoie fit next year (if they do at all)? Do Girgs and Okposo return. Where does Greenway fit in the lineup? What sort of leap do Quinn, JJ and Krebs make.

Sabres are not far off with the right tweaks here and there.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Flashsabre

[Two or less]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

.and best suited for 3rd pairing duty, but KA has invested in two significantly more physical D for the 3rd pair in Stillman and Lyubishkin.  I think Joki has value and would bring a decent asset in return.  I don't mind if he comes back as a 3rd pair player, but priority No 2. this off-season, after fixing the goaltending, is a better partner for Power.

We still don’t know if Stillman can play in the NHL. I think these next few weeks is important for him. His defensive play is suspect. Unless he drastically improves I imagine they’ll want a better version of Stillman but in short term were willing to take him for relatively cheap. But I agree, finding a top-4 dmen and goalie are priorities. 
 

If Joki goes, they’ll be in the market for two new dmen although not sure how much, if any, Ryan Johnson will need in Rochester next season. 

[Randall Flagg]

What I would do: Pray Nashville falls apart and is ready to start over with a new GM. blockbuster for their goalie. 

2023 first rounder, top prospect (Östlund?), Olofsson for Sissons and Saros

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mitts - Cozens - Quinn
Peterka - Krebs - Sissons
Girgensons - xxx - Greenway

xxx can be a solid, gritty veteran with footspeed and playoff experience

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Scott Mayfield
Carson Soucy - Henri Jokiharju
Johnson - Lyubushkin 

Other UFA options: Severson? TvR? Graves? Dunn? Loads of guys available who have played good defense on good defensive teams.

Saros
UPL/whoever

What I think Kevyn will do: 

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mitts - Cozens - Quinn
Peterka - Krebs - Kulich/Olofsson (i do think he probably gets rid of VO and lets kids compete for this spot)
Girgensons - vet signing - Greenway 

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Jokiharju
Johnson - budget signing
Boosh - Bryson or someone similar

UPL, one of the many value backups available around the league each summer

[Randall Flagg]

Man, i'm looking at some other teams' cap situations next year

There are a LOT of teams in tough spots

We just went through two years of blowing cap space and getting nothing out of it

We better take advantage of the opportunities that will be available this summer

[Randall Flagg]

A few weeks ago I had a dream where Kevyn was actually a genius mastermind. The Sabres won the lottery and moved up to pick 2 or 3, and he had sat back for the past year knowing one of Toronto/Edmonton would flounder and have to trade an unmentionable superstar - McDavid per request, Matthews after informing them he wouldn't sign. 

DreamKevyn gave a top 3 pick, 2024 #1, Rosen and 2 of the 22 first rounders to Edmonton for Connor McDavid

 

[Thorny]

24 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Man, i'm looking at some other teams' cap situations next year

There are a LOT of teams in tough spots

We just went through two years of blowing cap space and getting nothing out of it

We better take advantage of the opportunities that will be available this summer

If there’s never a pay off for that particular Chekhov’s gun...

Edited March 10, 2023 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

What have we learned in the last few games?

1) We are still in the running for the playoffs, but we really aren't there yet.  The goaltending isn't good enough, the defense is young, not very deep, and not good enough and while the offense is good in general, we could still use more depth.

2) It's time for max PT for all the kids.  UPL, JJP, Quinn, Krebs, and even Jost, Greenway, and Stillman.  We know Bryson and Clague aren't the answer.  We know Comrie and Anderson aren't the answer.  We also know KO and Girgensons, as much as we like both players, aren't the answer.  Sit the vets if needed and let the kids learn from the experience.

3) Hopefully the expanded PT will help KA determine who gets what role next year and whether the player should be here at all.

[Crusader1969]

Hopefully they learnt that they leaned too heavily on a few players and need to reduce their mins per game

improving their depth (especially on D), allows them to play  Dahlin / Samuelsson and Power a couple of mins less per game 

The top players all seem to be running out of steam after

[Scottysabres]

My 23/24 Sabres early thoughts?

The entire organization needs to watch this training video once an hour, 8 hours a day, all off season.

 

Edited March 10, 2023 by Scottysabres

[Taro T]

13 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

What I would do: Pray Nashville falls apart and is ready to start over with a new GM. blockbuster for their goalie. 

2023 first rounder, top prospect (Östlund?), Olofsson for Sissons and Saros

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mitts - Cozens - Quinn
Peterka - Krebs - Sissons
Girgensons - xxx - Greenway

xxx can be a solid, gritty veteran with footspeed and playoff experience

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Scott Mayfield
Carson Soucy - Henri Jokiharju
Johnson - Lyubushkin 

Other UFA options: Severson? TvR? Graves? Dunn? Loads of guys available who have played good defense on good defensive teams.

Saros
UPL/whoever

What I think Kevyn will do: 

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mitts - Cozens - Quinn
Peterka - Krebs - Kulich/Olofsson (i do think he probably gets rid of VO and lets kids compete for this spot)
Girgensons - vet signing - Greenway 

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Jokiharju
Johnson - budget signing
Boosh - Bryson or someone similar

UPL, one of the many value backups available around the league each summer

Agree with your expectation of what the F lineup will look like next year except expect Jost will be the 4C.

Flip Lyubushkin and Johnson and you've got the D nailed too.  (But am really hoping that "budget signing" is an actual 4D.)

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, Taro T said:

Agree with your expectation of what the F lineup will look like next year except expect Jost will be the 4C.

Flip Lyubushkin and Johnson and you've got the D nailed too.  (But am really hoping that "budget signing" is an actual 4D.)

So you only see a budget D signing (while hoping for more) and a bargain bin back up G? That’s the extent of our GM’s work all summer, to help get this squad into the playoffs? 

Edited March 10, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So you only see a budget D signing (while hoping for more) and a bargain bin back up G? That’s the extent of our GM’s work all summer, to help get this squad into the playoffs? 

No, have said elsewhere that my expectation is they get a 4D.  He'll probably be what people consider a budget signing similar to grabbing Lydman but expecting he'll be useful also like Lydman.   Expect there'll be something else on D brought in.  Hoping that guy is a 5/6 but it could be another Clague.

Didn't look that closely at the goalie projection.  Have no idea what Adams does there.  But until he fixes goaltending, he hasn't fixed it.