Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #26 Rasmus Dahlin

[SwampD]

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

There are real disadvantages though, right?  (I’m sure there are some advantages though too)

I always thought the main disadvantage of a D playing their off side is that when you are battling around the wall, or picking pucks off the wall, you are doing it on your backhand instead of your forehand.

Common practice. That's it.

Defenders have been told to play that side at every level of hockey, so by the time they get to upper levels, they are better at it. Start out a talented kid on the off side and by the time he gets to upper levels he'll be better at that.

Since the puck usually goes back behind the net in those battles anyway, not sure it matters.

[French Collection]

22 minutes ago, Curt said:

There are real disadvantages though, right?  (I’m sure there are some advantages though too)

I always thought the main disadvantage of a D playing their off side is that when you are battling around the wall, or picking pucks off the wall, you are doing it on your backhand instead of your forehand.

It is more important if your play is glass and out, then Dahlin would be on his backhand. That play is rarely used anymore, flip passes or dump outs are more common.

He would have to handle more D to D passes on his backhand.

With his edge work and stick handling ability cutting to the centre of the ice and making a play should be in his wheelhouse. He is not really a north south skater and last year with Samuelsson they switched sides during play quite a bit.

If DG makes that pairing permanent, these guys will figure it out. Just as there are certain advantages to wingers on their off sides, there will be some for Dmen and Dahlin should exploit them.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

There are real disadvantages though, right?  (I’m sure there are some advantages though too)

I always thought the main disadvantage of a D playing their off side is that when you are battling around the wall, or picking pucks off the wall, you are doing it on your backhand instead of your forehand.

It's trade offs.  Everybody pushing the lefties play LD rightness play RD always hype that keeping the puck in at the BL puts the D- man on his backhand.    True, but he also has better shooting & passing lanes from there which is why D almost always play off-hand on the PP (in the traditional 3F, 2D formation; obviously not in 4-1).

In zone, yes, the clear along the boards is on the backhand as @French Collection points out.  But, for battles in front of the net, the D's stick is towards the center of the ice rather than the boards and he can defend more of "the house."   

In the neutral zone a D either needs to open up to make the cross ice pass which telegraphs it a bit or backhand it, of course a bounce pass off the boards to the winger breaking that way opens the ice up more.  The D-man is longer when Mohawking to forwards skating as the attacking F comes in close when playing their strong side, but he can throw a cleaner hip check if he closes the gap quicker & doesn't need to transition to forwards skating on his weak side.

@SwampD has this one.  It's tradition which leads to that distinction, as there are pros and cons at both ends & in between.

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Taro T

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, Taro T said:

It's trade offs.  Everybody pushing the lefties play LD rightness play RD always hype that keeping the puck in at the BL puts the D- man on his backhand.    True, but he also has better shooting & passing lanes from there which is why D almost always play off-hand on the PP (in the traditional 3F, 2D formation; obviously not in 4-1).

In zone, yes, the clear along the boards is on the backhand as @French Collection points out.  But, for battles in front of the net, the D's stick is towards the center of the ice rather than the boards and he can defend more of "the house."   

In the neutral zone a D either needs to open up to make the cross ice pass which telegraphs it a bit or backhand it, of course a bounce pass off the boards to the winger breaking that way opens the ice up more.  The D-man is longer when Mohawking to forwards skating as the attacking F comes in close when playing their strong side, but he can throw a cleaner hip check if he closes the gap quicker & doesn't need to transition to forwards skating on his weak side.

@SwampD has this one.  It's tradition which leads to that distinction, as there are pros and cons at both ends & in between.

 

And I’d say the pros lean towards offence and the cons toward defence, so you know which way most coaches will lean.

[Norcal]

For the record, i think Dahlin will improve on defense as well as score a career high in points. 

[SwampD]

11 hours ago, Taro T said:

It's trade offs.  Everybody pushing the lefties play LD rightness play RD always hype that keeping the puck in at the BL puts the D- man on his backhand.    True, but he also has better shooting & passing lanes from there which is why D almost always play off-hand on the PP (in the traditional 3F, 2D formation; obviously not in 4-1).

In zone, yes, the clear along the boards is on the backhand as @French Collection points out.  But, for battles in front of the net, the D's stick is towards the center of the ice rather than the boards and he can defend more of "the house."   

In the neutral zone a D either needs to open up to make the cross ice pass which telegraphs it a bit or backhand it, of course a bounce pass off the boards to the winger breaking that way opens the ice up more.  The D-man is longer when Mohawking to forwards skating as the attacking F comes in close when playing their strong side, but he can throw a cleaner hip check if he closes the gap quicker & doesn't need to transition to forwards skating on his weak side.

@SwampD has this one.  It's tradition which leads to that distinction, as there are pros and cons at both ends & in between.

 

 

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

And I’d say the pros lean towards offence and the cons toward defence, so you know which way most coaches will lean.

I wonder if its an actual con or just a perceived con in the D zone. In other words how often is there an actual break down in the play because of off handedness, and how much is it different from on handedness. I bet its not as different as one might think, if at all.

 

Good hockey talk, btw. I miss it.

[Thorny]

On 8/29/2022 at 8:46 AM, Curt said:

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-top-players-top-20-defensemen/c-335376574

Dahlin was just ranked as the 18th best defenseman by NHL.  I’m a bit surprised that he made the list.  What does everyone think? Will Dahlin have a season worthy of being called the 18th best defenseman in the league?

 

On 8/30/2022 at 7:58 AM, LGR4GM said:

Either he breaks out and is the elite defender he can be, or Dahlin never does and we wait for Power to overtake him while Dahlin still contributes a bunch of points. 

I feel like a lot of the underlying data from last year suggests he already is, and already has. 

[Thorny]

On 9/1/2022 at 10:28 AM, Taro T said:

It's tradition which leads to that distinction, as there are pros and cons at both ends & in between.

 

Respectfully, don’t buy this. 

We think all teams, stupidly, maintain the practice simply because it’s common? It just universally holds that the majority always heavily leans one way, across the board, in the face of data that all teams have that says it doesn’t matter? But all 32 cling to it forever more? No team has been smart enough to diverge? 

Its easier to play on your strong hand on D, in most cases, considering the way GMs and coaches currently want their team to function. The good ones can simply overcome it to the extent it doesn’t matter. 

 

The Sabres are going to suit up probably 5 of 6 D playing their “proper” hand and have 1 guy, a star, play on his opposite. Data is the data. 

Edited September 2, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorny]

On 9/1/2022 at 11:07 AM, dudacek said:

And I’d say the pros lean towards offence and the cons toward defence, so you know which way most coaches will lean.

But the league being run a certain way doesn’t mean handedness “doesn’t matter.” It simply means it doesn’t matter in a *vacuum*. For the type of game the NHL currently favours, handedness is *revelatory* re: the side that D will most often play. 

It’s not due to “tradition”, it’s due to the way coaches traditionally want to play. 

Teams haven’t shown they believe that can capitalize on a manufactured situation where they suit up an off-hand majority, to gain an advantage, nor have they expressed an idea that a random assortment of handedness can “get the job done” in the league as its currently constructed: if that were the case, there would be more than, zero?, instances where a team suited up an even balance of proper hand/offhand defenders. 

It’s just not how numbers work in vast sample sizes. If it didn’t matter for success in today’s game, it wouldn’t be that a situation has basically never happened where a team committed an “offhand / proper hand even split” over the course of a full season. 

Law of averages takes over and more teams would put out D lineups that reflected a “it doesn’t matter” mindset. 

- - - 

What Dahlin is doing on the right is exceptional, and shouldn’t be minimized, it’s a trend breaker - the clearest sign of aptitude imo - and not a type of credit I think should be taken away. It’s not something anyone could do if adherence to “the normal way” was simply disregarded.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Thorny

[dudacek]

39 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But the league being run a certain way doesn’t mean handedness “doesn’t matter.” It simply means it doesn’t matter in a *vacuum*. For the type of game the NHL currently favours, handedness is *revelatory* re: the side that D will most often play. 

It’s not due to “tradition”, it’s due to the way coaches traditionally want to play. 

Teams haven’t shown they believe that can capitalize on a manufactured situation where they suit up an off-hand majority, to gain an advantage, nor have they expressed an idea that a random assortment of handedness can “get the job done” in the league as its currently constructed: if that were the case, there would be more than, zero?, instances where a team suited up an even balance of proper hand/offhand defenders. 

It’s just not how numbers work in vast sample sizes. If it didn’t matter for success in today’s game, it wouldn’t be that a situation has basically never happened where a team committed an “offhand / proper hand even split” over the course of a full season. 

Law of averages takes over and more teams would put out D lineups that reflected a “it doesn’t matter” mindset. 

- - - 

What Dahlin is doing on the right is exceptional, and shouldn’t be minimized, it’s a trend breaker - the clearest sign of aptitude imo - and not a type of credit I think should be taken away. It’s not something anyone could do if adherence to “the normal way” was simply disregarded.

Wasn’t arguing against any of this. The bold was my entire point. It is the way it is because the hockey world generally believes that’s best way to win hockey games.

Doesn’t mean they’re 100 % right in all instances, mind you. I think it’s more like being “big” or “fast” or good at faceoffs. it might be an advantage, but it’s not necessarily a necessity.

I will say that the game evolves; I remember a time when this didn’t really matter and a time when CCCP dominated the world with the entire team shooting left.

So it may evolve again when coaches and/or players perceive a tactical advantage.

[Thorny]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Doesn’t mean they’re 100 % right in all instances, mind you. I think it’s more like being “big” or “fast” or good at faceoffs. it might be an advantage, but it’s not necessarily a necessity.

I will say that the game evolves; I remember a time when this didn’t really matter and a time when CCCP dominated the world with the entire team shooting left.

So it may evolve again when coaches and/or players perceive a tactical advantage.

I know, but as in my post, I believe they generally do that because it *is* the best way to win hockey games, with the context being the way the league is currently constructed. Maybe I misinterpreted the tone but I read it more like you believed it was arbitrary, in terms of necessity, with the clinging to tradition the driving factor and/or a “belief” on the part of GMs, rather than an understanding.

Definitely agree w/ your last point 

Edited September 2, 2022 by Thorny

[French Collection]

Coach DG was thinking outside of the box when he moved TT to centre. He had played there before but it had been a while and not at the pro level.

Dahlin played RD in Sweden and said he likes it there. DG may put on his thinking cap and devise ways of making this advantageous for Rasmus.

If DG wants to play Dahlin, Samuelsson and Power as 3 of his top 4, one of them needs to play RHD. I would rather have those 3 eat up 70-80 minutes of the 120 than having Mule on the third pairing, getting 15 minutes.

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I know, but as in my post, I believe they generally do that because it *is* the best way to win hockey games, with the context being the way the league is currently constructed. Maybe I misinterpreted the tone but I read it more like you believed it was arbitrary, in terms of necessity, with the clinging to tradition the driving factor and/or a “belief” on the part of GMs rather than an understanding.

Definitely agree w/ your last point 

No scoffing from me. I think you’re right: most hockey execs run the D the way they do because that’s what’s been shown to work.

What you might be hearing is resistance to the automatic assumption that a guy can’t or shouldn’t play his off-hand.

I think if Brandon Montour is a #3 on his right side and a #6 on his left side, you’re wasting an asset playing him on his left side and you need to make a move to correct the imbalance

But if Jacob Bryson is a #6 on either side, there is no reason not to play him as your 3rd-pairing RHD.

I agree that most D are better on their strong side under modern systems and that’s why they are deployed that way.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm projecting a similar point total as last year, but with much more dominate all around play.  The reason for not much growth in points is the addition of Power and as he comes along, he'll being to take some PT away from Dahlin, which will be good for both players.

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm projecting a similar point total as last year, but with much more dominate all around play.  The reason for not much growth in points is the addition of Power and as he comes along, he'll being to take some PT away from Dahlin, which will be good for both players.

I think both Power and Dahlin stay right around 22 and 24 minutes respectively. 

[Thorny]

Dahlin was 13th in points last year for D, with improved defensive play irrespective of the usually un-useful plus minus stat. I don’t really get voting for the “is what he is” option, 2/3, as what he is is already a bonafide 1. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by Thorny

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Dahlin was 13th in points last year for D, with improved defensive play irrespective of the usually un-useful plus minus stat. I don’t really get the “is what he is” option, 2/3, as what he is is already a bonafide 1. 

Neither do the voters.

Quite the sweep here for the optimists

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Neither do the voters.

Quite the sweep here for the optimists

I suppose the days where I have to shout about him from the rooftops around here are over. 

[MattPie]

On 9/2/2022 at 7:13 PM, dudacek said:

Wasn’t arguing against any of this. The bold was my entire point. It is the way it is because the hockey world generally believes that’s best way to win hockey games.

Doesn’t mean they’re 100 % right in all instances, mind you. I think it’s more like being “big” or “fast” or good at faceoffs. it might be an advantage, but it’s not necessarily a necessity.

I will say that the game evolves; I remember a time when this didn’t really matter and a time when CCCP dominated the world with the entire team shooting left.

So it may evolve again when coaches and/or players perceive a tactical advantage.

Might have to go further back than that. D probably play better on the traditional side because I've always played there. Their first pee-wee coach put them on those sides because that's just what you do. All the little things that should be automatic (like, stopping a puck getting past you on the boards) is just that little bit faster since they've been doing it on the same side for 10 years.

I remember a time when the Sabres PP1 was entirely left-shots, and I think PP2 was entirely right-shots. That's not the same situation on the PP for a D, but interesting. I don't remember when that was, but I think it was one of the times they've been good in the last 25 years. That'll narrow it down quite a bit, lol.

[Rasmus_]

Stud.  All that I need to say.

[bunomatic]

19 minutes ago, Rasmus_ said:

Stud.  All that I need to say.

Well sure coming from you. Pumpin your own tires and all😝

[Huckleberry]

I think we are gong to see 60 points and a more physical game from him.  

[Rasmus_]

21 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

Well sure coming from you. Pumpin your own tires and all😝

Absolutely, he's by far my favorite Sabre.  I like Krebs, Tuch and Cozens.  However, for me, it's Dahlin!

[Taro T]

On 9/2/2022 at 6:16 PM, Thorny said:

Respectfully, don’t buy this. 

We think all teams, stupidly, maintain the practice simply because it’s common? It just universally holds that the majority always heavily leans one way, across the board, in the face of data that all teams have that says it doesn’t matter? But all 32 cling to it forever more? No team has been smart enough to diverge? 

Its easier to play on your strong hand on D, in most cases, considering the way GMs and coaches currently want their team to function. The good ones can simply overcome it to the extent it doesn’t matter. 

 

The Sabres are going to suit up probably 5 of 6 D playing their “proper” hand and have 1 guy, a star, play on his opposite. Data is the data. 

 

20 hours ago, MattPie said:

Might have to go further back than that. D probably play better on the traditional side because I've always played there. Their first pee-wee coach put them on those sides because that's just what you do. All the little things that should be automatic (like, stopping a puck getting past you on the boards) is just that little bit faster since they've been doing it on the same side for 10 years.

I remember a time when the Sabres PP1 was entirely left-shots, and I think PP2 was entirely right-shots. That's not the same situation on the PP for a D, but interesting. I don't remember when that was, but I think it was one of the times they've been good in the last 25 years. That'll narrow it down quite a bit, lol.

There is IMHO a lot of this in that stat.  The majority of the players get put on their "strong side" in youth hockey & never really get as much opportunity on their other side and end up more comfortable there.  My teams tended to have at least 1 kid playing on their off-hand as we usually only had enough kids for 5 D rather than 3 pairs.  But even then, most of them were on their strong side.  And the primary reason was typically for being able to keep the puck in the zone.  Way easier for a kid to hold the puck in at the boards on his forehand.

[dudacek]

Fully on board with optimists here.

Dahlin will be a legit 1D for a full season and as the year goes on the league will start to realize it.