The Dahlin - Joker Pairing Needs to Die a Fiery Death

[Thorny]

Sabres could choose to interpret the Murray failings one of two ways - that he torpedoed his own rebuild/tank strategy by attempting to speed it up, or that the reasonable strategy of bringing in “now” players to help move along your rebuild was torpedoed by Murray’s poor talent analysis/transactions there in. 

Personally, I don’t believe in the idea “now” moves can’t be made without sacrificing the future, so I hope they are attributing some of the previous failings to the operator and execution, and not just believing it to be a faulty theory at the root. 

[woods-racer]

18 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

I did some digging.

The author points out that the Dahlin-Joker pairing fails to generate high danger shots and allows a lot of high danger shots.  This is true.  But you can't fix the problem if you don't look at the big picture.  Every pair should be examined and how the whole team performance is impacted.  Other lineups of pairs could be worse- and some of them are.

I'll spare you the math.  The Sabres are in a tough spot defensively, but there are ways to improve.

With Butcher out, the Sabres go-to defense pairings of Dahlin-Joker/Bryson-Miller/Hagg-Pysyk appear to be designed to minimize xGA/60 (under the constraints that lefties play with righties).  Compared to other possible lineups, it's about the best set of pairs you can make with those six players for minimizing team-wide mean xGA/60.  It's also not the worst lineup for minimizing CA/60.  It's had the outcome of doing an ok job minimizing GA/60 and HDGA/60 compared to other lineups.  If what the Sabres are doing is intentional and data-driven, then it's clear that the pairs are setup specifically to prevent goals.

 

However, this focus on xGA/60, CA/60, and GA/60 comes at a cost: this lineup is worse than some other possible lineups in several other key areas, including CF/60, xGF/60, GF/60, HDCF/60, HDCF%, HDGF%.  The current pairings are absolutely eating it on the offensive side of the puck.

Optimizing for as many categories as possible, emphasizing CF%, GF%, xGF%, and HDCF%, the  defense pairs should be, in no particular order:

Bryson-Joker

Hagg-Miller

Dahlin-Pysyk

This will have the following effect of improving almost every area (CF/60, CF%, GF/60, GF%, xGF/60, xGF%, HDCA/60, HDCF%, HDGF, and HDGF%), with the biggest increases to CF/60, CF%,  while holding mostly steady on some others (CA/60, xGA/60, SCF/60, SCA/60, HDCA/60, and HDGA).

Some of the biggest impact include:

Increasing CF/60 from 48.9 to 57.4

Increasing GF/60 from 1.69 to 3.75

Increasing HDGF/60 from 0.98 to 2.12.

 

The good news is that the data suggests that Sabres may be able to increase offense by changing up the pairs to what's above.  The bad news is that data suggests our defensive side of the puck doesn't get much better no matter what defensive lineup we put out.

 

You've put strength to weakness in each of those pairings as best as possible with what you have to work with in order to balance them statistically. I wish they would play them that way so we can do the eye test. It's *old school* hockey to pair them that way so maybe the new statistical way shows a different model. 

[IKnowPhysics]

12 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

You've put strength to weakness in each of those pairings as best as possible with what you have to work with in order to balance them statistically. I wish they would play them that way so we can do the eye test. It's *old school* hockey to pair them that way so maybe the new statistical way shows a different model. 

The better pairings were all pairs they've already tried briefly at one time or another, so their performance data is already there.  I laid out the pairs with the best overall numbers as a whole.  If it fits some architype about mixing eyeball strengths and weaknesses, it's an unintentional outcome.

[Thorny]

 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Sabres could choose to interpret the Murray failings one of two ways - that he torpedoed his own rebuild/tank strategy by attempting to speed it up, or that the reasonable strategy of bringing in “now” players to help move along your rebuild was torpedoed by Murray’s poor talent analysis/transactions there in. 

Personally, I don’t believe in the idea “now” moves can’t be made without sacrificing the future, so I hope they are attributing some of the previous failings to the operator and execution, and not just believing it to be a faulty theory at the root. 

 

Still believe Murray's failing was more due to his being unable to see the human component to his players.  He seems to have completely discounted personality & chemistry in favor of pure physical assets.

He got the "talent" part right but completely failed at "chemistry."  Maybe that falls under your 2nd option, but would split hairs & say they are distinct. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Sabres could choose to interpret the Murray failings one of two ways - that he torpedoed his own rebuild/tank strategy by attempting to speed it up, or that the reasonable strategy of bringing in “now” players to help move along your rebuild was torpedoed by Murray’s poor talent analysis/transactions there in. 

Personally, I don’t believe in the idea “now” moves can’t be made without sacrificing the future, so I hope they are attributing some of the previous failings to the operator and execution, and not just believing it to be a faulty theory at the root. 

Hasn’t been a cup winner who hasn’t brought in important pieces or sacrificed assets.

It clearly about assembling enough asset capital and moving the right pieces in or out at the right time.

Edited February 4, 2022 by dudacek

[Thorny]

10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Still believe Murray's failing was more due to his being unable to see the human component to his players.  He seems to have completely discounted personality & chemistry in favor of pure physical assets.

He got the "talent" part right but completely failed at "chemistry."  Maybe that falls under your 2nd option, but would split hairs & say they are distinct. 

It was indeed my intention for “chemistry” and personality types to be included under the talent analysis option 

It was never so much the raw talent in question, but rather the fit 

[Thorny]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Hasn’t been a cup winner who hasn’t brought in important pieces or sacrificed assets.

It clearly about assembling enough asset capital and moving the right pieces in or out at the right time.

Well, ya. Perhaps my post wasn’t clear or poorly worded, but I wasn’t under the delusion that there’s ever been a roster constructed purely through in-house picks. I am aware that assembling enough capital is preferable to assembling not enough capital, and that moving pieces in or out at the right time is preferable to moving them in or out at the wrong time..I’m not totally lost, yet. 

What I thought might be interesting as a discussion point was more so when the timing for moves would be deemed acceptable, and whether or not people (and the franchise) are open to more significant moves in the “now” akin to the type Murray made. For example, trusting that Adams talent (and fit) analysis would be better.

Edited February 4, 2022 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Krebs and Tuch wouldn't count as in house picks. 

[Thorny]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Krebs and Tuch wouldn't count as in house picks. 

That’s true, the assumption though, unless I’m mistaken yet again is that Adams moving on from Eichel wasn’t so much a choice as much as a transaction he was necessarily tasked with brokering. So it doesn’t really fit the question. 

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Well, ya. Perhaps my post wasn’t clear or poorly worded, but I wasn’t under the delusion that there’s ever been a roster constructed purely through in-house picks. I am aware that assembling enough capital is preferable to assembling not enough capital, and that moving pieces in or out at the right time is preferable to moving them in or out at the wrong time..

What I thought might be interesting as a discussion point was more so when the timing for moves would be deemed acceptable, and whether or not people (and the franchise) are open to more significant moves in the “now” akin to the type Murray made. For example, trusting that Adams talent (and fit) analysis would be better.

Not particularly interested in moving any of our young pieces prior to getting a better look at what they are but as always it depends on which assets and what return.

Rosen or one of our late firsts for the RD version of Alex Tuch (25, on a favourable deal and good), Absolutley.

Edited February 4, 2022 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

That’s true, the assumption though, unless I’m mistaken yet again is that Adams moving on from Eichel wasn’t so much a choice as much as a transaction he was necessarily tasked with brokering. So it doesn’t really fit the question. 

Adams absolutely made a choice to move on

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Not particularly interested in moving any of our young pieces prior to getting a better look at what they are but as always it depends on which assets and what return.

Rosen or one of our late firsts for the RD version of Alex Tuch (25 and on a favourable deal), Absolutley.

You come up with a name in the 22-25 range for rhd and we could discuss this better. 

[Thorny]

😂

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Adams absolutely made a choice to move on

You come up with a name in the 22-25 range for rhd and we could discuss this better. 

I'll bite. https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2022/caphit/all/defense/all/desc/right?limits=age-22-26,height-71-81,weight-191-300

The impossible dreams: McAvoy

The Rasmii quota: Anderson

The potential with some enticement: Carlo, Roy, Bear, Zub

The cap casualties? Cernak or Foote.

The stop-and-think-about-it: Whitecloud as part of a package for Reilly Smith or Chandler Stephenson for when Martinez & Eichel return.

[Broken Ankles]

44 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

 

The cap casualties? Cernak or Foote.

The stop-and-think-about-it: Whitecloud as part of a package for Reilly Smith or Chandler Stephenson for when Martinez & Eichel return.

Love either of the cap casualties suggested.  We could offer a ton in lower AAV value for either. 

No chance they move Whitecloud.  He must have been asked for in the trade itself no?  Why not Martinez for Miller and 50% retained?  Martinez checks all the boxes for a younger D partner.  

Then in the offseason - overpay for Manson, and you have:

Dahlin/Martinez

Power/Manson

Muel/Joki

Pskyk and Bryson are 7/8

 

Edited February 4, 2022 by Broken Ankles

[GoPuckYourself]

On 2/2/2022 at 1:54 PM, LGR4GM said:

 

And you state I'm harsh on Dahlin? I don't believe I've ever said "Die a fiery death" when talking about him.

[LGR4GM]

54 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

And you state I'm harsh on Dahlin? I don't believe I've ever said "Die a fiery death" when talking about him.

I'm talking about the pairing not the players and it's clearly hyperbole 

[GoPuckYourself]

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm talking about the pairing not the players and it's clearly hyperbole 

Easy there Francis, I was somewhat messing around.

[Drag0nDan]

15 hours ago, Taro T said:

 

Still believe Murray's failing was more due to his being unable to see the human component to his players.  He seems to have completely discounted personality & chemistry in favor of pure physical assets.

He got the "talent" part right but completely failed at "chemistry."  Maybe that falls under your 2nd option, but would split hairs & say they are distinct. 

Doug Whaley had many of the same issues IMO.  Brought in Watkins, karlos williams, Kouandjo, Henderson - then some of the guys who just weren't leaders or buy in guys like Gilmore Dareus and Mario Williams.  Between guys coming in with prior issues, and just general paycheck guys it was not set up for sustained success.

[DarthEbriate]

13 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

No chance they move Whitecloud.  He must have been asked for in the trade itself no?  Why not Martinez for Miller and 50% retained?  Martinez checks all the boxes for a younger D partner.  

Yes, Whitecloud would be very tough to pry away unless VGK got something good in return -- even if "stitched" onto the Eichel trade. They have him and McNabb on good discount deals for their roles. Those aren't the contracts you move when you're trying to eliminate the overpriced guys with NTCs (Dadonov) without some incentive. (Contrast that McCabe got $4M/year from Chicago for the same "role" as [edit]: McNabb.)

I didn't include Martinez because he was too old to begin the training for the initial search parameters. He's also a LHD and has a modified no-trade clause. But his age/salary and especially experience would be great for this team. I just can't see him allowing a trade to Buffalo no matter how much Tuch tells him its awesome. We are not a contender yet.

Manson would be a fair offseason overpay. I think Justin Braun could also be good in that mentor role (the Flyers season notwithstanding). Manson and Braun still have enough game left to warrant a multiyear deal (2-4 years). Pysyk fits the bill still, too. Manson would be the most expensive -- probably another $2M/year for him vs. the others.

Edited February 4, 2022 by DarthEbriate

[sabremike]

It still amazes me that our allegedly savvy and sophisticated fanbase shits all over Dahlin when anyone smarter than a brain damaged cocker spaniel can see the biggest issue is playing on a team that was deliberately constructed to be totally uncompetitive and lose as many games as possible. 

[Buffalonill]

Is anyone else  worried that Dahlin might ask to be moved next? We aren't making playoffs next year for sure  His agent is probably gonna pull something this summer.

 

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Is anyone else  worried that Dahlin might ask to be moved next? We aren't making playoffs next year for sure  His agent is probably gonna pull something this summer.

Nope. If you watch his interviews and listen to what he says, he likes it here and he likes the locker room. 

[Weave]

27 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Is anyone else  worried that Dahlin might ask to be moved next? We aren't making playoffs next year for sure  His agent is probably gonna pull something this summer.

 

Not yet. He doesn’t appear to be developing the Jack mope.

Is it me, or did Dahlin’s negative in-game emotional outbursts stop when Jack left the lineup?

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, Weave said:

Not yet. He doesn’t appear to be developing the Jack mope.

Is it me, or did Dahlin’s negative in-game emotional outbursts stop when Jack left the lineup?

Think it stopped when they slapped and A on this chest and he decided in November he had to be better. May have also coincided with Eichel being officially traded but idk if that was a reason.