Why should we consider this different than "the streak" in 2019?

[That Aud Smell]

 

It’s interesting to see Buffalo almost at the middle of the Bad-Dull-Good-Fun quadrants.

Trending toward Dull-Good, though, which is nice.

 

Edited October 29, 2021 by That Aud Smell

[WildCard]

^^Pretty much exactly what you would expect from little talent but hard work. 

Maybe Granato is the correct coach and I eat crow. I hope so.

[dudacek]

Our goalies have been good to very good every game this year.

We've faced Montembeault, Vejmelka, Demko, Ullmark, Daws, Elliott, Stalock.

Maybe I'm putting too much weight on the past 3 0r 4 games, but as it continues, I'm not thinking it is all that different.

[Doohickie]

Yeah, it's starting to look more like the 2019 streak as we get further along.  Hate to say it.  If this is other teams adjusting to the Sabres style then Granato needs to adjust the Sabres style to overcome that.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

That's a playoff team so, probably unlikely. 

Points percentage .500 seems possible, and I didn't think it was, believe someone here said they might beat Bylsma's 81 point season and I said it wouldn't happen - maybe it will. 

Couldn't watch again yesterday, just too late for me when I work nights. But looked like another big downturn in the metrics from what I saw posted online. How did the game actually look to the eye? 

I would be pretty surprised. It's uncommon for a deluca .500 team to miss the playoffs 

A DeLuca 0.500 team is a bubble team.  An NHL 0.600 team is a playoff team.  Would love to see both happen but this is still likely a sub-NHL 0.500 team.

At least we've moved on from people expecting historically bad.

As to the Q about the game; Anderson stole a point & the Sabres stole the other one as well.

[matter2003]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think Talent will eventually catch up to this team and we will be far closer to .500 by the end of the season. 

Probably, but .500 is way better than most expected. If we finish with more than 80 points Granati should be in the Coach of the Year discussion

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

A DeLuca 0.500 team is a bubble team.  An NHL 0.600 team is a playoff team.  Would love to see both happen but this is still likely a sub-NHL 0.500 team.

At least we've moved on from people expecting historically bad.

As to the Q about the game; Anderson stole a point & the Sabres stole the other one as well.

A low-level deluca .500 team is a bubble team, that's true, was just pointing out that the vast, vast majority of teams that find themselves at deluca .500 also happen to find themselves with the points required to be a playoff team. 

It's difficult to find yourself a deluca .500 team yet only on the bubble 

[GASabresIUFAN]

 

[Thorny]

That is to say, the teams that find themselves able to win at least as many games as they lose, lose a lot of the games they DO lose in OT. Because they are generally good teams. You don't often see a deluca .500 team with a lot of losses actually in the strict "loss" column. 

Teams that win as many as they lose, overall, almost always make the playoffs, due to the presence of the loser point - it's just how the math works out 

[Marvin]

I suspect that the Sabres will have a much better record at home than on the road.  The inability to line-match some on the road was obvious in both games.  The Sabres lost a lot of face-offs last night and chased all night.  The overall lack of talent showed itself in the inability to exit the zone with possession.

Also, now that there is film on us, teams will adjust their game plans to counter our system.  This is the next test for the players and the coaches: adjusting to greater and more specific preparation.

[That Aud Smell]

41 minutes ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

Yeah, it's starting to look more like the 2019 streak as we get further along.  Hate to say it.  If this is other teams adjusting to the Sabres style then Granato needs to adjust the Sabres style to overcome that.

The team's raw Corsi from the 2019 streak was ~48%.

Ironically, if you factor in three games after the streak, that value rises to 49.2%. The Sabres SAF were 170, while SAA were 149 over those three games -- this includes that one Rangers game where they lost badly to the Rangers despite having the raw corsi lopsided in their favour.

[That Aud Smell]

Also, not for nothing, the Sabres' PDO isn't ridiculous right now. It's tenth in the league, which is ... fairly lucky. Their SV% is obviously really high (4th), and will regress. But the S% is a bit low (22nd) - maybe it will improve?

[Doohickie]

3 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

The team's raw Corsi from the 2019 streak was ~48%.

Ironically, if you factor in three games after the streak, that value rises to 49.2%. The Sabres SAF were 170, while SAA were 149 over those three games -- this includes that one Rangers game where they lost badly to the Rangers despite having the raw corsi lopsided in their favour.

What's their Corsi now?  This season, and also maybe for the last few games?  (I don't know how to find those stats.)

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

What's their Corsi now?  This season, and also maybe for the last few games?  (I don't know how to find those stats.)

My go to is Hockey-Reference

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/BUF/index.html

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

A low-level deluca .500 team is a bubble team, that's true, was just pointing out that the vast, vast majority of teams that find themselves at deluca .500 also happen to find themselves with the points required to be a playoff team. 

It's difficult to find yourself a deluca .500 team yet only on the bubble 

It happens every year that a DeLuca 0.500 team or 4 miss the playoffs.  It never happens to an NHL 0.600 team. 

There's a post somewhere on this board w/ the data.

[LGR4GM]

Note this is specifically at 5v5

51.9 CF%

Their 6.6% sh% is below the league average of 7.6%

Their .948sv% is above the league average 0.924v%

SCF is 54% BUT HD SCF is 46.5% so they generate more scoring chances than opponents but less hd chances. 

Edited October 29, 2021 by LGR4GM

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

It happens every year that a DeLuca 0.500 team or 4 miss the playoffs.  It never happens to an NHL 0.600 team. 

There's a post somewhere on this board w/ the data.

Ya, I just made it lol 

On average there's about 1 team a year, out of 17, that misses

Deluca .500 isn't supposed to be a playoff guarantee (though it's close) merely a number better representative of a "good" team than NHL .500. At least, that's always how I've seen the argument framed/framed it myself. 

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

for the year thus far, the team as a whole has a raw corsi % of 49.48%.

 

8 minutes ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

What's their Corsi now?  This season, and also maybe for the last few games?  (I don't know how to find those stats.)

 

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya, I just made it lol 

On average there's about 1 team a year, out of 17, that misses

Deluca .500 isn't supposed to be a playoff guarantee (though it's close) merely a number better representative of a "good" team than NHL .500. At least, that's always how I've seen the argument framed/framed it myself. 

Further, you (@Taro T) are correct that .600 points % is more less a playoffs guarantee (98 points), it's just not a mark I'd need my team to reach in order to consider them "good". 

I'd call a Deluca .500 team a good team, that's why I like that number. 

 

Edited October 29, 2021 by Thorny

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya, I just made it lol 

On average there's about 1 team a year, out of 17, that misses

Deluca .500 isn't supposed to be a playoff guarantee (though it's close) merely a number better representative of a "good" team than NHL .500. At least, that's always how I've seen the argument framed/framed it myself. 

 

No, actually went through and looked at what teams made the DeLuca 0.500 & didn't make the playoffs some time during the shut down.  It was rare to have no DeLuca 0.500 teams miss the dance & IIRC as many as 4 have missed in a single season.  That was going back through the entirety of the loser point being a thing.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

No, actually went through and looked at what teams made the DeLuca 0.500 & didn't make the playoffs some time during the shut down.  It was rare to have no DeLuca 0.500 teams miss the dance & IIRC as many as 4 have missed in a single season.  That was going back through the entirety of the loser point being a thing.

Well, no Deluca .500 team has missed in the last 3 years. There was a year a few years ago where 3 teams missed - on average, it's about 1 team a year. But even if it's 3 teams a year, it doesn't change my argument - the vast majority of deluca .500 teams make it. And as I explained the "very likely makes the playoffs" attribute is just a secondary one: primarily, I believe it to be revelatory of a good team aka at very least average. 

The very last 1 or 2 deluca teams, by standings, are always right around the midway point of the league 

If you are a deluca .500 team, you are in the "good" half 

[Taro T]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Well, no Deluca .500 team has missed in the last 3 years. There was a year a few years ago where 3 teams missed - on average, it's about 1 team a year. But even if it's 3 teams a year, it doesn't change my argument - the vast majority of deluca .500 teams make it. And as I explained the "very likely makes the playoffs" attribute is just a secondary one: primarily, I believe it to be revelatory of a good team aka at very least average. 

The very last 1 or 2 deluca teams, by standings, are always right around the midway point of the league 

If you are a deluca .500 team, you are in the "good" half 

When 24 teams made the playoffs, there were NO DeLuca 0.500 teams that missed the playoffs?

When everybody played in their own division & the top 1/2 of the division made the playoffs & the bottom 1/2 didn't, there were NO DeLuca 0.500 teams that missed the playoffs?

Both of those are truly shocking outcomes (if you aren't good at math).  😉

When Moe-ray-all went 44-30-8 and missed the playoffs in '18-'19, was that NOT a DeLuca 0.500 team?

 

Edited October 29, 2021 by Taro T

[SabresVet]

1 hour ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

Yeah, it's starting to look more like the 2019 streak as we get further along.  Hate to say it.  If this is other teams adjusting to the Sabres style then Granato needs to adjust the Sabres style to overcome that.

And this was always the issue with the Sabres, especially among the forward group and in goal - that their system/scheme could cover up for a lack of talent.  Question is, how long?  This is why I think Adams is looking to receive back young talent to help Granato perhaps for this year but more down the road.  

EDIT: The other thing I see is 3 forwards are shooting 20% or better through these 7 games.  That scoring (10 goals) makes up almost half their total for the season (22).  Hard to see that lasting, along with a team .942 save percentage. 

Edited October 29, 2021 by SabresVet

[Drag0nDan]

1 hour ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

I suspect that the Sabres will have a much better record at home than on the road.  The inability to line-match some on the road was obvious in both games.  The Sabres lost a lot of face-offs last night and chased all night.  The overall lack of talent showed itself in the inability to exit the zone with possession.

Also, now that there is film on us, teams will adjust their game plans to counter our system.  This is the next test for the players and the coaches: adjusting to greater and more specific preparation.

Hagg and Pysyk played terribly.  Cozens was a liability.  Thompson was a disaster in the d zone.  Skinner and hino couldn't gain the zone all night.  They were also absolutely crushed on the dot all night long, so in the o zone they were losing it, and in the d zone they already start out without the puck.  

[wjag]

On 10/26/2021 at 12:29 PM, inkman said:

 

Has been a long time since we have been able to say this..