Comparing the Kids Potential to Former Sabres

[Doohickie]

54 minutes ago, Weave said:

Say my name, b!###!  Lol

I've gotten enough Abusive Behavior warnings to know not to name names.  Plus you're not the only one.

[Digger]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

Rather than Mitts at 1C, I would at least try Girgensons in that role.  He's defensively responsible and has shown decent offense in the past, but with the tank fruit he slid down the depth chart.  It might be purely sacrificial to put him in at 1C but if Mitts isn't ready I'd hate to ruin him... again... by putting him in over his head.  I think Girgs is mentally tougher at these stages in their respective careers.

Okay but that's tough to see right now.  I said in my proposed 2021-22 lineup that I didn't see any one line being the #1 line this season.  I would think Girgensons could help with the defensive side of things against the top lines but I don't see the coach putting him out when down a goal or two.

Can you put forward your suggestion with Girgensons as 1C in the "Lineup 2021-22" thread?

Edited August 17, 2021 by Digger

[Doohickie]

I see GIrgs as an option.  Could be Eichel, could be someone coming back in an Eichel trade. 

I think you're right though:  We'll have 3 middle-six lines and a fourth line.  They'll all take their lumps.

[Thorny]

16 hours ago, Weave said:

Samuelsson seems to be Uwe Krupp 2.0 if he keeps developing.

I think we'd be damned lucky to have Mitts get to Derek Roy level. I think Derek Plante with niftier hands is more likely. Ken Priestlay worst case.

Cozens is projecting as Peca if Peca's game were cleaned up, so Stu Barnes?

Thompson and Taylor Pyatt might be good comparables.

I'm not sure this team is good enough to compare to, say 02-03 Sabres, so I don't know how you can make many comparisons to actual good players.  Most of these guys are going to be afterthoughts in 10 years.  Think 86-87 with Jack playing the role of the lone star Gilbert on the roster.  There was a ton of youth and promise on that team, most of which never panned out. I expect the same of this current roster.

 

 

With Cozens as the current "best hope" at C for the Sabres, therefore currently at the very centre of our rebuild, we need to be hoping he turns out a significant bit better than Stu Barnes. At least until after next year's draft, I guess. Agree on Mitts. 

As a footnote, Asplund is not going to touch Jochen Hecht and he won't come close. Hecht in his prime had seasons pacing for 67 and 60 points as a Sabre (with of course the accompanying two-way game). It's not going to happen for RA. 

16 hours ago, dudacek said:

My take?

Owen Power:

• Upside: Alex Pietrangelo (all-situations, 1st-pairing defenceman, Olympic Team Canada-level but not Norris Trophy)
• Likely: Eric Johnson (all-situations #3 defenceman)
• Best Sabre comparable: Uwe Krupp/Doug Bodger (obvious physical gifts and top-four utility, but lacking that alpha chromosome)

Jack Quinn:

• Upside: Mark Stone (complete, all-around 1st-line wing)
• Likely: Ondrej Palat (complete, all-around 2nd-line wing)
• Best Sabre comparable: Jason Pominville/Craig Ramsey/Ric Seiling (he's going to be good and reliable for a long time, still not sure if he ends up known more for his scoring or his checking, but he will do both)

Dylan Cozens:

• Upside: Ryan Kesler (less of a prick, but similar presence, offence and 2-way game as a centre)
• Likely: Filip Forsberg (versatile all-around top six winger)
• Best Sabre comparable: ??? (he might be around their stature, but he's too primal to be Luce, too big and fast to be Peca, not tough enough to be Foligno. Stepping down a notch, he's way too honest to be Gratton or McKegney; he's pretty unique for a Sabre)

Rasmus Dahlin:

• Upside: Erik Karlsson (elite, Norris Trophy winning offence-first defenceman)
• Likely: Karlsson (I still think he gets there)
• Best Sabre comparable: Phil Housley (the only one who really fits in terms of physical gifts, Rasmus will be more rounded)

Casey Mittelstadt:

• Upside: pre-concussion Tim Connolly (good 2C production, 1C highlight reel)
• More likely: John Tucker (top six talent who never could put it together)
• Best Sabre comparable: Derek Plante (guy who could produce when used in the top 6, but generally not someone you wanted to lean on when things got tough)

Henri Jokiharju:

• Upside: Jared Spurgeon (Smooth defender who rarely makes mistakes and can contribute in all 3 zones)
• More likely: Alex Goligoski (smooth defender who is best in transition but needs to be spotted to be at his most useful)
• Best Sabre comparable: Petr Svoboda (reliable 2nd-pairing guy with skill but not points)

Going to enjoy watching these guys develop the way Sam and Jack (and too few others) have over the past decade.

With these pretty much to a "T". 

Though, I'll allow myself an even higher ceiling for Cozens - Jeff Carter. At least, on the offensive side of things. Don't think it's most likely he gets there, but I think the potential is there. 

[Marvin]

7 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Rather than Mitts at 1C, I would at least try Girgensons in that role.  He's defensively responsible and has shown decent offense in the past, but with the tank fruit he slid down the depth chart.  It might be purely sacrificial to put him in at 1C but if Mitts isn't ready I'd hate to ruin him... again... by putting him in over his head.  I think Girgs is mentally tougher at these stages in their respective careers.

I roll Zemgus out there in all tough situations to insulate Mittlestadt and Cozens.  He has the mental toughness to handle the role (cf. The Tank Season), is defencively responsible, and can handle the load.  I might try Skinner-Girgensons-Okposo to help maximise the insulation for the youth; Skinner can cash in all the rebounds the other two produce.

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Sabres are operating as if they think Casey can be a legit top 6 centre.

Everybody thought that in 2018, nobody in 2020.

He was definitely fun to watch to finish 2021; I finally started seeing the swagger I saw when he was a junior.

He's one of the reasons I will be watching this year.

I respectfully disagree.  I remained on the Casey bandwagon after reading what Taylor said about his time in Rochester.  

Casey is a top 6 center.  Whether he is ultimately a top line center or a top 6 center on a top tier team has yet to be determined.  That said, he has played for two real coaches in his brief pro career, Taylor in Rochester and Granato in Buffalo, and each time the results have been excellent.  With DG as his coach this season, if he stays healthy, I can easily see him leading this team in scoring.  We also can't right him off if his team leading total is 50 pts or less.  During the Rolston/Nolan season of 13/14 Ennis and CoHo lead team with 43 & 44 pts respectfully.  I hope this team is better then that horror show, but it may not be given our goaltending.

How do we view R2's potential?  Afinogenov?  Audette? 

Edited August 17, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Doohickie]

23 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

I roll Zemgus out there in all tough situations to insulate Mittlestadt and Cozens.  He has the mental toughness to handle the role (cf. The Tank Season), is defencively responsible, and can handle the load.  I might try Skinner-Girgensons-Okposo to help maximise the insulation for the youth; Skinner can cash in all the rebounds the other two produce.

See, I spread them out.  I can see the allure of that line, but I'd rather have Okie on one line (with a coupla kids) and Girgs on another (with a coupla kids).  Skinner gets Ozone starts.

[Pimlach]

Or … we can bring in another NHL center.  KA has to bring in a goalie and center to help out.  

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

Or … we can bring in another NHL center.  KA has to bring in a goalie and center to help out.  

Like I said...

8 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I see GIrgs as an option.  Could be Eichel, could be someone coming back in an Eichel trade.

 

[Buffalonill]

Cozens -RNH

 

[Thorny]

18 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I respectfully disagree.  I remained on the Casey bandwagon after reading what Taylor said about his time in Rochester.  

Casey is a top 6 center.  Whether he is ultimately a top line center or a top 6 center on a top tier team has yet to be determined.  That said, he has played for two real coaches in his brief pro career, Taylor in Rochester and Granato in Buffalo, and each time the results have been excellent.  With DG as his coach this season, if he stays healthy, I can easily see him leading this team in scoring.  We also can't right him off if his team leading total is 50 pts or less.  During the Rolston/Nolan season of 13/14 Ennis and CoHo lead team with 43 & 44 pts respectfully.  I hope this team is better then that horror show, but it may not be given our goaltending.

How do we view R2's potential?  Afinogenov?  Audette? 

So his absolute floor is high-level 2C? Is that the implication here?

R2? Ya, those guys or Ron Francis

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So his absolute floor is high-level 2C? Is that the implication here?

R2? Ya, those guys or Ron Francis

I think his floor is as an average 2C.  I think the 2C's on contenders and top line centers in general tend to be the top level of centers in the NHL.  Do you remember the debate here after Regier called Roy and Connolly top 25 centers in the NHL and they were by points.  However I remember an article in TBN illustrating how they would have been 3rd line centers on contenders.  So in terms of sheer numbers, I think Mitts is probably in the top 60 of NHL centers, and whether he gets to top 30 status only time will tell.

[Taro T]

On 8/18/2021 at 2:44 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think his floor is as an average 2C.  I think the 2C's on contenders and top line centers in general tend to be the top level of centers in the NHL.  Do you remember the debate here after Regier called Roy and Connolly top 25 centers in the NHL and they were by points.  However I remember an article in TBN illustrating how they would have been 3rd line centers on contenders.  So in terms of sheer numbers, I think Mitts is probably in the top 60 of NHL centers, and whether he gets to top 30 status only time will tell.

W/ all due respect, his FLOOR is average 3C.  His likely outcome is average to good 2C.   And his ceiling is adequate 1C.

Connolly probably is the best comparable for him.  Getting played too highly by the Aisles caused him to develop seriously bad habits that he couldn't overcome until post-lockout.  But he did, oh boy did he, overcome them until that poorly thought out move to the middle of the ice right into Schaeffer's waiting elbow.

Hating the idea of him being the 1C this year as am not convinced it won't set his development backwards.  He's shown he's ready to be given a real opportunity at 2C & expect he'd thrive there.

Even if @Doohickie 's idea of having the checking line as the 1st line comes to fruition, opposing teams will still be able to overmatch the Mitts line when on the road more often than will be healthy for his development.  Hopefully he surprises and shows he's at a point development wise that he can be an OK 1C this year.  That & bringing in a real goalie would go a long way to making this season less painful than it seems set up to be.

PS - you aren't the only one that didn't give up on Mitts. 

[Digger]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

W/ all due respect, his FLOOR is average 3C.  His likely outcome is average to good 2C.   And his ceiling is adequate 1C.

Connolly probably is the best comparable for him.  Getting played too highly by the Aisles caused him to develop seriously bad habits that he couldn't overcome until post-lockout.  But he did, oh boy did he, overcome them until that poorly thought out move to the middle of the ice right into Schaeffer's waiting elbow.

Hating the idea of him being the 1C this year as am not convinced it won't set his development backwards.  He's shown he's ready to be given a real opportunity at 2C & expect he'd thrive there.

Even if @Doohickie 's idea of having the checking line as the 1st line comes to fruition, opposing teams will still be able to overmatch the Mitts line when on the road more often than will be healthy for his development.  Hopefully he surprises and shows he's at a point development wise that he can be an OK 1C this year.  That & bringing in a real goalie would go a long way to making this season less painful than it seems set up to be.

PS - you aren't the only one that didn't give up on Mitts. 

Well thought out post.  I agree.  I think Mittelstadt got back on track last season.  I still hope that we get another center back into the roster to help with the load (someone better than Berglund 😒).  Let's hope he continues to progress this season and gets the support needed.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

W/ all due respect, his FLOOR is average 3C.  His likely outcome is average to good 2C.   And his ceiling is adequate 1C.

Connolly probably is the best comparable for him.  Getting played too highly by the Aisles caused him to develop seriously bad habits that he couldn't overcome until post-lockout.  But he did, oh boy did he, overcome them until that poorly thought out move to the middle of the ice right into Schaeffer's waiting elbow.

Hating the idea of him being the 1C this year as am not convinced it won't set his development backwards.  He's shown he's ready to be given a real opportunity at 2C & expect he'd thrive there.

Even if @Doohickie 's idea of having the checking line as the 1st line comes to fruition, opposing teams will still be able to overmatch the Mitts line when on the road more often than will be healthy for his development.  Hopefully he surprises and shows he's at a point development wise that he can be an OK 1C this year.  That & bringing in a real goalie would go a long way to making this season less painful than it seems set up to be.

PS - you aren't the only one that didn't give up on Mitts. 

We were part of the abused minority.  Had this been Twitter we'd have been banned for not bowing to the group think on this board.

Also Mitts wasn't overmatched last year as the 2C and actually played against many of the top centers last year as coaches tried to match up against him instead of Reinhart.  Despite many tough matchups the ATM was our most effective scoring line under DG.  DG has said as much this off-season.  

 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We were part of the abused minority.  Had this been Twitter we'd have been banned for not bowing to the group think on this board.

Also Mitts wasn't overmatched last year as the 2C and actually played against many of the top centers last year as coaches tried to match up against him instead of Reinhart.  Despite many tough matchups the ATM was our most effective scoring line under DG.  DG has said as much this off-season.  

 

Agreed that he wasn't overmatched as the 2C and actually thrived there once given the opportunity.

That said, still fear that he might be overmatched as the 1C.  Hoping that's overly pessimistic, but don't expect it is.

Teams didn't really gameplan for the Sabres because they really didn't have to.  So, though he looked good at 2C (& honestly, looked good under Krueger in other roles as well, but he just didn't have the points to show for it) am not ready to say that is his floor.  That is what he most likely is, but he could regress especially if Asplund is removed from his wing- those 2 simply clicked & really hope Granato doesn't break those 2 apart as they might be more together than they are individually.  But could definitely see Asplund getting moved to C due to a lack in that spine and have concerns that will not work w/ the current roster.

Still hope Mitts is a poor man's 1C when he's finished growing and believe he has a legit chance to get there.  Not better than even to get there but it won't exactly be in a both Martin St. Louis & Tim Thomas beating the odds to get there from this stage of their careers either.  But, as stated, have concerns that putting him there now might set him back.

[nfreeman]

@GASabresIUFAN — it would be great if you’re right about Mitts, but you are taking the victory lap insanely early here.  Mitts looked better last year in the last 30 games of another lost season than the useless blob he had been previously throughout his career and he put up some points in garbage time.  That all that happened.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

@GASabresIUFAN — it would be great if you’re right about Mitts, but you are taking the victory lap insanely early here.  Mitts looked better last year in the last 30 games of another lost season than the useless blob he had been previously throughout his career and he put up some points in garbage time.  That all that happened.  

That’s not all that happened.  Mitts has played well with every coach at every level not named Ralph Krueger the confidence killer.  He was excellent in his tryout, solid as a rookie, excellent in the AHL, and terrific when finally given a chance by DG. This is a talented player who has physically and mentally matured.  It’s not some mirage.   

[nfreeman]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s not all that happened.  Mitts has played well with every coach at every level not named Ralph Krueger the confidence killer.  He was excellent in his tryout, solid as a rookie, excellent in the AHL, and terrific when finally given a chance by DG. This is a talented player who has physically and mentally matured.  It’s not some mirage.   

This is just not even close to accurate.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

This is just not even close to accurate.  

Prove it.  I have the numbers and the coaches statements to support my opinion. He scored nearly a PT a game in the AHL and Taylor played him in all situations, PK, PP and in key minutes at even strength. Last season he scored at over a 60 pt pace under Granato and DG played him in all situations especially at the end of games to preserve wins. These coaches backed their actions with interviews supporting Mitt’s progress.  What supports yours? 

[Weave]

1st 3 pro seasons. Name that player

Temper the enthusiasm a bit until he shows more.  Yes there are age differences in these players.  But we've been down this path before.

[nfreeman]

FFS. 

0.69 ppg in Rochester, while having a certain appeal, is not “nearly a point per game.”   That claim is #hammymath.

I’m glad his coaches didn’t say publicly that he’s a washout.  Most coaches who are charged with developing young players wouldn’t say that publicly about a recent #8 overall pick.

More importantly, everyone with functioning eyesight who watched him play in Buffalo or Rochester prior to DG taking over saw someone who was utterly useless on the ice.

He put up some numbers in a small garbage time sample size last season. That’s it.

 

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s not all that happened.  Mitts has played well with every coach at every level not named Ralph Krueger the confidence killer.  He was excellent in his tryout, solid as a rookie, excellent in the AHL, and terrific when finally given a chance by DG. This is a talented player who has physically and mentally matured.  It’s not some mirage.   

I agree with you that Mitts and his line mates played well under Granato than under Krueger. That comment can apply to every player on the roster after the coaching change. The Mitts line that included Asplund and Thompson would on a more complete team be a solid third line in time. And when I categorize  that line at a third line level I am denigrating the line. It's an important role. Reinhart showed that he could be a good second or maybe even a solid first line center. Jack is definitely a first line center. Mitts doesn't come close to that level play.

What happens on bad teams with a dearth of talent is that players end up playing a higher role than their talent level. That was evident on our blue line. A third pairing caliber of player ends up playing as a second pairing and gets skewered for his play. The reality is that the player is playing a role beyond his what he is suited for. That pattern of inflating a player's role is going to become evident this season.

I liked what I saw from Mitts last season and still see some upside. I thought he was a lost cause but he turned out to be a pleasant surprise. My point here is don't get carried away with your assessment of Mitts.   

[Thorny]

On 8/21/2021 at 2:20 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

We were part of the abused minority.  Had this been Twitter we'd have been banned for not bowing to the group think on this board.

Also Mitts wasn't overmatched last year as the 2C and actually played against many of the top centers last year as coaches tried to match up against him instead of Reinhart.  Despite many tough matchups the ATM was our most effective scoring line under DG.  DG has said as much this off-season.  

 

I think this is a little overstated. I think plenty had adjusted their expectations rather than ruled him out completely. I pegged him as a 3rd line wing, and that to me is still a not unlikely end result. Adequate 2nd line player is on the table too, and the chances of that to me have got up, but I don't think many labelled him as a bust outright. But I could be wrong. Twitter was worse for it, that's true. But that's par for the course. 

[Thorny]

23 hours ago, nfreeman said:

FFS. 

0.69 ppg in Rochester, while having a certain appeal, is not “nearly a point per game.”   That claim is #hammymath.

I’m glad his coaches didn’t say publicly that he’s a washout.  Most coaches who are charged with developing young players wouldn’t say that publicly about a recent #8 overall pick.

More importantly, everyone with functioning eyesight who watched him play in Buffalo or Rochester prior to DG taking over saw someone who was utterly useless on the ice.

He put up some numbers in a small garbage time sample size last season. That’s it.

 

We're only factoring in Mittelstadt games in Rochester where Krueger and his aura weren't within 1000 miles of the area. 156 point pace last I checked.