Can the Sabres Franchise Survive Another Tank/Rebuild?

[msw2112]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

lot of ifs in there

Agreed.  I think they will play a competitive brand of hockey whether they get another goaltender or not, but their win total will be much lower if they don't get one.

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I agree with much of this, and I like KA, but criticizing him is far from ludicrous IMHO.  He was GM of a team that finished DFL, and he certainly wasn’t trying to achieve that outcome.  He also appears to have neglected the most critical position on the team 2 years in a row.  
 

He was saddled with a HC that got 6 wins. Moves like Taylor Hall were likely done at behest of RK. I'm willing to brush off 2020 for that reason. Now he has his coach and his vision. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by PromoTheRobot

[Thorny]

16 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

He was saddled with a HC that got 6 wins. Moves like Taylor Hall were likely done at behest of RK. I'm willing to brush off 2020 for that reason. Now he has his coach and his vision. 

In what year of his GM term would you feel it fair to judge him based on results? Actually asking

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

In what year of his GM term would you feel it fair to judge him based on results? Actually asking

2022/23 season.  Maybe 2023/24.

[PromoTheRobot]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

In what year of his GM term would you feel it fair to judge him based on results? Actually asking

Starting this year. This is the first year he is in full control and not going along with a coach he inherited.

It's the same logic I apply to Granato, not counting his first 5-6 games as interim head coach.

Edited August 11, 2021 by PromoTheRobot

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

2022/23 season.  Maybe 2023/24.

Imagine getting 3 free pass years before needing to accomplish anything on ice. To expect nothing on ice until year 4 seems quite extreme. 

1 minute ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Starting this year.

Apologies as I ask another question due to my first being too vague - are you speaking results relative to the rest of the league, ie standings improvement, or results relative to his plan, ie - if we complete our march to pick 1, that's "success"?

[PromoTheRobot]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Imagine getting 3 free pass years before needing to accomplish anything on ice. To expect nothing on ice until year 4 seems quite extreme. 

Apologies as I ask another question due to my first being too vague - are you speaking results relative to the rest of the league, ie standings improvement, or results relative to his plan, ie - if we complete our march to pick 1, that's "success"?

You asked when do you start judging Adams. I say it starts with this season. That doesn't mean making snap judgements on moves the second they are done. 

As for judging progress, how about measurable improvement from last year? Not in the bottom 5? Continued point improvement from Mitts, Dahlin, Tage? Not feeling like they are doomed after giving up a goal? In short, not looking and playing as bad as last year. The big unknown is what we have in net.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Imagine getting 3 free pass years before needing to accomplish anything on ice. To expect nothing on ice until year 4 seems quite extreme. 

Apologies as I ask another question due to my first being too vague - are you speaking results relative to the rest of the league, ie standings improvement, or results relative to his plan, ie - if we complete our march to pick 1, that's "success"?

I don't think we should count his first year, or last year, as neither where really part of this restart, eh.

So, I am starting to count this coming season as year 1.  Therefore, I as looking for improvement (not standings) in this season, but standings improvement in the 22/23 season.  Real improvement in the 23/24 and really starting to compete for playoffs in 24/25, when Rasmus will be getting into his prime years and Power will have 2 full seasons and Cozens is Captain and a legit 2+ C, as is Mitts, both alternating in the 1 C role.  And the other kids have matured into a decent team that plays hard every night.  2026 will be our year, which is a lot better than my 2112 (😎) prediction.

Edited August 11, 2021 by New Scotland (NS)
not very goodly typing, but I am lazy today ...

[jsb]

In my opinion a big part of the problem in the Sabres Front Office is the lack of continuity. You can't keep hiring and firing every 2 years. I'm going to give this organization Adams, Karmanos and Nightingale 3 years to turn this around. Their 1st step is to tear down and retool. 2nd step is to develop the young guys on the team and their draft choices plus some coherent playing style. Step 3 is results. You can't jump over to step 3 without first getting steps 1 & 2 done first. Personally I think Adams has made good choices with his hires so far and I think he's smart enough not to F bomb Mrs. Pegula and tell her husband he's not going to follow his instructions in cutting back the budget without being business like about it.

[Thorny]

34 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I don't think we should count his first year, or last year, as neither where really part of this restart, eh.

So, I am starting to count this coming season as year 1.  Therefore, I as looking for improvement (not standings) in this season, but standings improvement in the 22/23 season.  Real improvement in the 23/24 and really starting to compete for playoffs in 24/25, when Rasmus will be getting into his prime years and Power will have 2 full seasons and Cozens is Captain and a legit 2+ C, as is Mitts, both alternating in the 1 C role.  And the other kids have matured into a decent team that plays hard every night.  2026 will be our year, which is a lot better than my 2112 (😎) prediction.

You don't expect us to complete for the playoffs for another 4 years? Adams has *5* years to field a playoff team? Good grief man lol

Edited August 11, 2021 by Thorny

[bunomatic]

If the Pegulas had high expectations they’d hire qualified individuals with proven successful track records and get out of the way. They have failed to get that right and here we are. My expectations are at an all time low because of that. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by bunomatic

[LabattBlue]

How will the optimists feel if the season starts with the current pile of crap in the crease masquerading as NHL goaltenders?  Will you still have confidence in KA?

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

How will the optimists feel if the season starts with the current pile of crap in the crease masquerading as NHL goaltenders?  Will you still have confidence in KA?

Ask me in 5 years. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

In what year of his GM term would you feel it fair to judge him based on results? Actually asking

Every year, but results are always relative to expectations, and, for me, equally important is how his decisions worked out.

His first off-season was an abject failure.

• The overriding organizational viewpoint was that the team was a few pieces away from contending. ❌
• Jeremiah Crowe was elevated to head scout over a gutted scouting department. ❌
• Jack Quinn was picked 8th overall 🤷‍♂️
• He traded up to select JJ Peterka ✅
• Taylor Hall was was signed to a one-year prove it contract ❌
• Eric Staal was brought in to fix the hole at 2C ❌
• Sheahan, Rieder and a handfull of others were brought in as depth pieces 🤷‍♂️
• He stayed status quo in net ❌
•  Expectations were a team that would flirt with a playoff spot. ❌

This is what we've seen since

• The overriding organizational viewpoint was that the team is broken and a complete flush and reset is needed 🤷‍♂️
• Ralph Krueger and Steve Smith fired ✅
• Granato hired as interim coach ✅
• Hall traded for Bjork and the pick that became Kisakov 🤷‍♂️
• Staal traded for a 3rd and 4th ✅
• Montour traded for a 3rd 🤷‍♂️
• Pending UFA Ullmark kept ❌
• The youngsters given a trial by fire down the stretch ✅
• Internal decision made to trade Eichel 🤷‍♂️
• Karmanos hired 🤷‍♂️
• Fortin elevated to head amateur scout 🤷‍♂️
• Ventura brought in as analytics guru 🤷‍♂️
• Granato named head coach 🤷‍♂️
• Risto traded for pick 13, a 2023 2nd and Hagg ✅
• Reinhart traded for a 22 1st and Devon Levi 🤷‍♂️
• Power selected 1st overall 🤷‍♂️
• Rosen selected 13th overall 🤷‍♂️
• Deep draft dive made into the Russian junior league 🤷‍♂️
• Decision made to let Ullmark go rather than give him term in order to keep him 🤷‍♂️
• Butcher and a 5th acquired for nothing ✅
• Anderson, Dell signed to battle for a spot on the NHL roster in net 🤷‍♂️
• Pysyk, Hinostroza, Caggiula and assorted depth players signed 🤷‍♂️
• Eichel trade/surgery question drags on without resolution...❓
• NHL starter spot in net remains unfilled...❓
• Dahlin, Mittelstadt, Jokiharju contracts need to be signed...❓
• Decision needs to be made on what to do with approximately $30 million in cap space...❓
• Expectations are that the team will entertain and the kids show growth while the team remains in contention for top spot in the draft 🤷‍♂️

More moves to see and many questions to be answered

Edited August 11, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Every year, but results are always relative to expectations, and, for me, equally important is how his decisions worked out.

His first off-season was an abject failure.

• The overriding organizational viewpoint was that the team was a few pieces away from contending. ❌
• Jeremiah Crowe was elevated to head scout over a gutted scouting department. ❌
• Jack Quinn was picked 8th overall 🤷‍♂️
• He traded up to select JJ Peterka ✅
• Taylor Hall was was signed to a one-year prove it contract ❌
• Eric Staal was brought in to fix the hole at 2C ❌
• He stayed status quo in net ❌
•  Expectations were a team that would flirt with a playoff spot. ❌

This is what we've seen since

• The overriding organizational viewpoint was that the team is broken and a complete flush and reset is needed 🤷‍♂️
• Ralph Krueger and Steve Smith fired ✅
• Granato hired as interim coach ✅
• Hall traded for Bjork and the pick that became Kisakov 🤷‍♂️
• Staal traded for a 3rd and 4th ✅
• Montour traded for a 3rd 🤷‍♂️
• Pending UFA Ullmark kept ❌
• The youngsters given a trial by fire down the stretch ✅
• Internal decision made to trade Eichel 🤷‍♂️
• Karmanos hired 🤷‍♂️
• Fortin elevated to head amateur scout 🤷‍♂️
• Ventura brought in as analytics guru 🤷‍♂️
• Granato named head coach 🤷‍♂️
• Risto traded for pick 13, a 2023 2nd and Hagg ✅
• Reinhart traded for a 22 1st and Devon Levi 🤷‍♂️
• Power selected 1st overall 🤷‍♂️
• Rosen selected 13th overall 🤷‍♂️
• Deep draft dive made into the Russian junior league 🤷‍♂️
• Decision made to let Ullmark go rather than give him term in order to keep him 🤷‍♂️
• Butcher and a 5th acquired for nothing ✅
• Anderson, Dell signed to battle for a spot on the NHL roster in net 🤷‍♂️
• Pysyk, Hinostroza, Caggiula and assorted depth players signed 🤷‍♂️
• Eichel trade/surgery question drags on without resolution...❓
• NHL starter spot in net remains unfilled...❓
• Dahlin, Mittelstadt, Jokiharju contracts need to be signed...❓
• Decision needs to be made on what to do with approximately $30 million in cap space...❓
• Expectations are that the team will entertain and the kids show growth while the team remains in contention for top spot in the draft 🤷‍♂️

More moves to see and many questions to be answered

Ya, poorly worded question on my part. 

What I was trying to ask was more along the lines of, when are expectations going to be reflective of objectively satisfactory results. Ie - when are you actually expecting Adams to do well by the actual metric that matters league wide - wins. 

The expectation you laid out for this year, while seemingly accurate based on what most are saying, isn't really an expectation at all - rather a lack of such. This is because the main criteria you listed was subjective - "entertain". 

I've got Promo in for this coming season (reasonably tempered), NS for sometime around when the new Blade Runner is set, and you for N/A. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Thorny

[spndnchz]

I dropped my season tickets today. 
 

maybe I’ll back for  22/23. 
 

I know that wasn’t actually your question but that’s my answer for most of these players

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

You don't expect us to complete for the playoffs for another 4 years? Adams has *5* years to field a playoff team? Good grief man lol

Just being realistic, eh.  Hoping for sooner, but not really expecting it if he does this rebuild properly.

[SwampD]

2 hours ago, jsb said:

In my opinion a big part of the problem in the Sabres Front Office is the lack of continuity. You can't keep hiring and firing every 2 years. I'm going to give this organization Adams, Karmanos and Nightingale 3 years to turn this around. Their 1st step is to tear down and retool. 2nd step is to develop the young guys on the team and their draft choices plus some coherent playing style. Step 3 is results. You can't jump over to step 3 without first getting steps 1 & 2 done first. Personally I think Adams has made good choices with his hires so far and I think he's smart enough not to F bomb Mrs. Pegula and tell her husband he's not going to follow his instructions in cutting back the budget without being business like about it.

I (not so) patiently await the day when this isn't the first step.

Some day, someone is going to realize that you don't get better by getting rid of your best players.

Hope is not a strategy.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Ya, poorly worded question on my part. 

What I was trying to ask was more along the lines of, when are expectations going to be reflective of objectively satisfactory results. Ie - when are you actually expecting Adams to do well by the actual metric that matters league wide - wins. 

The expectation you laid out for this year, while seemingly accurate based on what most are saying, isn't really an expectation at all - rather a lack of such. This is because the main criteria you listed was subjective - "entertain". 

I've got Promo in for this coming season (reasonably tempered), NS for sometime around when the new Blade Runner is set, and you for N/A. 

Well, you haven't really defined what level of wins is considered satisfactory.

I posted earlier that Granato would be a Jack Adams candidate if we hit 65 points with the current lineup, so maybe that's my line for this season?

A 50-somethingish tank-level season would probably be a failure because it would indicate that the kids did not continue with the promise they showed to finish the season and support around them was insufficient.

Next season, a 20-point gain, playoff contention the season after?

That's probably tough but fair under the path Adams has chosen.

But this feels like a doorway back into old discussions about "why can't they just try to win right now?' which feels moot at this point.

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

How will the optimists feel if the season starts with the current pile of crap in the crease masquerading as NHL goaltenders?  Will you still have confidence in KA?

Is there a particular goalie you had in mind that is waiting for a call from Kev?

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Well, you haven't really defined what level of wins is considered satisfactory.

I posted earlier that Granato would be a Jack Adams candidate if we hit 65 points with the current lineup, so maybe that's my line for this season?

A 50-somethingish tank-level season would probably be a failure because it would indicate that the kids did not continue with the promise they showed to finish the season and support around them was insufficient.

Next season, a 20-point gain, playoff contention the season after?

That's probably tough but fair under the path Adams has chosen.

But this feels like a doorway back into old discussions about "why can't they just try to win right now?' which feels moot at this point.

Going by points isn't the best metric since there were only 56 games last season. But let's try to come up with a ratio. 54 points over 82 games would equal 37 points over 56 games. So a 20-point jump would be 74?

[LabattBlue]

12 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Is there a particular goalie you had in mind that is waiting for a call from Kev?

You mean since the start of the off-season or right now?   Regardless...if his plan is the current group for 21-22, he gets an “F” grade, for the 2nd straight offseason....in terms of addressing the goalie position.  

Edited August 11, 2021 by LabattBlue

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Going by points isn't the best metric since there were only 56 games last season. But let's try to come up with a ratio. 54 points over 82 games would equal 37 points over 56 games. So a 20-point jump would be 74?

I mean that under Adams' apparent plan, I'm thinking 65 points would be satisfactory in the coming 21/22 season and 80-plus in the 22/23.

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I mean that under Adams' apparent plan, I'm thinking 65 points would be satisfactory in the coming 21/22 season and 80-plus in the 22/23.

Sadly, all the kids could thrive and they won't achieve that result with the goalies KA saddled the kids with.  It's really a shame.  We have the makings of an up and coming team, and the goalie failure literally pulled the rug out of from under the rebuild.  No matter how well the kids do, the goalies will allow 4 goals a night.  No team, no matter how talented, can overcome such poor goaltending and that is what KA has done.  Right now this roster will be lucky to get to 20 wins next year.

Right now the team will be hemmed in our zone when the Butcher and Miller pairs are on the ice.  With Anderson as the primary goalie 3 years ago a young Ottawa team gave up 302 goals.  His last 3 full seasons Anderson's save% is approx .9.  Dell is worse.  His save % over that last 3 season is about .89.  These are bottom of the barrel goaltending in today's NHL and is no way to support a young team.  Asking Tokarski (3.54 & .904) or UPL (3.88 & .906) to carry the team instead is just as foolish.

  

 

Edited August 11, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[CallawaySabres]

For sure this will be the worst team in Sabres history. With the division they are in, maybe 4 years they will be close to 8th. If they get #1 overall pick next year, that could drop to 2 years depending on the return from Jack.