Don Granato as a HC

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If this stripped down team plays well against the better teams in the brutal gauntlet of upcoming games Granato will probably be the coach next season. If the team folds against these more talented teams he will be gone and be replaced by a better known and experienced coach. 

As you and others have stated on a number of occasions the bigger issue is what is going to be done this offseason to add to the staff that includes the front office and scouting department. That is the starting point before the critical hockey decisions should be made. The disastrous belief that a shrunken organization can function as well as a typically staffed NHL organization was not only a horrible decision but it led to ruinous results. 

 

Agree.

- - - 

I think it would be a mistake to place very much importance on these games (contrary to a fan, like me, who will probably react emotionally) if you are an executive, like Adams here - I find it hard to believe you really do get the full attention and focus of the opponent coming into these games, being where we are in the standings, dead last, than we would normally earlier in a season. 

I know the games are all important, but they are still human beings. They certainly don't consider the Sabres a threat, I'll say that much. The Bergerons of the world maybe give it their full 100% all the time but it's just not the way across the board. 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Thorny

[LabattBlue]

5 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The disastrous belief that a shrunken organization can function as well as a typically staffed NHL organization was not only a horrible decision but it led to ruinous results. 

 

People need to remember this the next time they feel the need to defend the Pegula’s. They have ruined this franchise. 😡

[PromoTheRobot]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Agree.

- - - 

I think it would be a mistake to place very much importance on these games (contrary to a fan, like me, who will probably react emotionally) if you are an executive, like Adams here - I find it hard to believe you really do get the full attention and focus of the opponent coming into these games, being where we are in the standings, dead last, than we would normally earlier in a season. 

I know the games are all important, but they are still human beings. They certainly don't consider the Sabres a threat, I'll say that much. The Bergerons of the world maybe give it their full 100% all the time but it's just not the way across the board. 

Maybe the Sabres don't scare them but the Bruins only have a 4 point lead on the Rangers and Flyers for the 4th playoff spot. I expect them to give 100%.

 

9 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If this stripped down team plays well against the better teams in the brutal gauntlet of upcoming games Granato will probably be the coach next season. If the team folds against these more talented teams he will be gone and be replaced by a better known and experienced coach. 

As you and others have stated on a number of occasions the bigger issue is what is going to be done this offseason to add to the staff that includes the front office and scouting department. That is the starting point before the critical hockey decisions should be made. The disastrous belief that a shrunken organization can function as well as a typically staffed NHL organization was not only a horrible decision but it led to ruinous results. 

 

The Sabres can create their own "playoff push." They are 6 points behind Ottawa and 7 behind Anaheim with 2 games in hand on both teams. Getting out of last would be a nice goal over the last 15 games.

7 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

People need to remember this the next time they feel the need to defend the Pegula’s. They have ruined this franchise. 😡

But they got lucky with the Bills, right?

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Maybe the Sabres don't scare them but the Bruins only have a 4 point lead on the Rangers and Flyers for the 4th playoff spot. I expect them to give 100%.

 

The Sabres can create their own "playoff push." They are 6 points behind Ottawa and 7 behind Anaheim with 2 games in hand on both teams. Getting out of last would be a nice goal over the last 15 games.

But they got lucky with the Bills, right?

It's possible, but it's part of the reason you see upsets even in single elimination playoff games - teams get taken for granted sometimes

I'm not arguing at all that every opponent and line we face for the next 15 games is going to be mailing it in - merely that we should exercise caution in attributing the same level of weight to these games as we would at other points in a season. 

The games are incredibly useful for getting young players acclimated and trying to build/practice a system - but the evaluation is certainly tricky. 

[LabattBlue]

3 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

But they got lucky with the Bills, right?

So their two seasons of success with the Bills, should exempt them from criticism for what they have done to the Sabres over the last decade...and counting?

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Agree.

- - - 

I think it would be a mistake to place very much importance on these games (contrary to a fan, like me, who will probably react emotionally) if you are an executive, like Adams here - I find it hard to believe you really do get the full attention and focus of the opponent coming into these games, being where we are in the standings, dead last, than we would normally earlier in a season. 

I know the games are all important, but they are still human beings. They certainly don't consider the Sabres a threat, I'll say that much. The Bergerons of the world maybe give it their full 100% all the time but it's just not the way across the board. 

Although your take is understandable I view these remaining games differently. Although the Sabres deserve their puny status these games against teams vying for a playoff positions present them with more than enough motivation to play these games as a very meaningful and consequential for them. The last Philly is an example of that. Not only are they in desperate situation to eek into the playoffs this was a game that had implications for how the organization was going to handle the trading deadline. To the Sabres credit even after falling behind they kept pushing. From what I witnessed the Flyers played hard and didn't quit. Yet we still won. That is a good sign especially because of the contributions of the younger players. For me that was a meaningful game in that although this team still doesn't have enough talent and the right fitting pieces what it does have under this coach is the right mind-set. That's an important positive that can be directly credited to the current coach behind the bench. 

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, darksabre said:

Also, I recommend giving Granato's interview on WGR this morning a listen. I don't know if he's the right coach long term, but he sure seems to have the right approach with the younger players in the short term.

Thanks for flagging that. Excellent interview

For me, the rest of this year is about confirming prospects as players and he really seems to have the perfect mindset for that.

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/podcasts/howard-and-jeremy-20258

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Thanks for flagging that. Excellent interview

For me, the rest of this year is about confirming prospects as players and he really seems to have the perfect mindset for that.

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/podcasts/howard-and-jeremy-20258

I listened to that WGR interview and I'm impressed by him. He has a good background in coaching young players and has an awareness of the process to develop players and dealing with individuals. He seems to have an understanding of the situation he is in and knows what it takes to get beyond it. What is apparent is that the the team has responded to what he is promoting. What is even more encouraging is that under his tutelage veterans such as Okposo and more dramatically Skinner have been resuscitated.  If Skinner can be restored to something close to what he originally was that would be like adding a major free agent to the team. 

[Radar]

33 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

People need to remember this the next time they feel the need to defend the Pegula’s. They have ruined this franchise. 😡

I won't defend the owners it's been a decade of disarray and that's on ownership. I only can hope they see and learn from past errors. I wish they hired a more experienced GM. Having said that I have no real problems with KA to this point as many seem to have. I'll wait and see what the future brings but it's not fair to criticize him because I wish someone more experienced was hired until he gives me reason to.

[PromoTheRobot]

32 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

So their two seasons of success with the Bills, should exempt them from criticism for what they have done to the Sabres over the last decade...and counting?

Not at all. But to be honest the Bills success earns them many indulgences from me.

[SDS]

59 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If this stripped down team plays well against the better teams in the brutal gauntlet of upcoming games Granato will probably be the coach next season. If the team folds against these more talented teams he will be gone and be replaced by a better known and experienced coach. 

As you and others have stated on a number of occasions the bigger issue is what is going to be done this offseason to add to the staff that includes the front office and scouting department. That is the starting point before the critical hockey decisions should be made. The disastrous belief that a shrunken organization can function as well as a typically staffed NHL organization was not only a horrible decision but it led to ruinous results. 

 

 

52 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

People need to remember this the next time they feel the need to defend the Pegula’s. They have ruined this franchise. 😡

I don’t think this is the right take.  I don’t know what’s in the owners heads, but from that press conference announcing Adams it was clear they were imposing some level of austerity and hitting the reset button for this coming fanless year. Confounding that was the signing of Hall. I don’t know how to reconcile the two, but I don’t believe the owners made all those cuts because they thought that was just fine. I think they took drastic measures to save money in a super weird year and the organization will go back to normal staffing levels moving forward.

[pi2000]

I compared fancy stats (at even strength) for both Kruger and Granato's time with the team this season.     

The short summary is that I believe the turnaround is primarily because of two things....  improved shooting %, and Ullmark.

Kruger:
GF/60: 1.59
GA/60: 3.29
xGF/60: 2.09
xGA/60: 2.59
Shooting %: 5.92
Save %: 88.98
CF%: 48.87
High Danger Chances For / 60:  10.04
High Danger Chances Against / 60:  10.4

 

Granato:
GF/60: 2.69
GA/60: 3.14
xGF/60: 2.18
xGA/60: 2.81
Shooting %: 9.62
Save %: 91.09
CF%: 48.03
High Danger Chances For / 60:  10.3
High Danger Chances Against / 60:  10.75

They're generating the same amount of high danger chances as they were under Kruger, but their SH% (high danger) improved from 12 to 19%.    HDSV% stayed about the same at 80-81%, but overall SV% as improved a few percentage points with Ullmark. 

What does this say about Granato?   Well, he's successfully brought the team out of their shooting % funk.   But that's about it.   Their CF% and HDCA are actually a bit worse under Granato, albeit a smaller sample size.     

Does he deserve consideration as full-time HC moving forward?  Sure, however the underlying possession and high danger numbers are actually slightly worse than they were under Kruger, so buyer beware. 

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Thanks for flagging that. Excellent interview

For me, the rest of this year is about confirming prospects as players and he really seems to have the perfect mindset for that.

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/podcasts/howard-and-jeremy-20258

"Even if you're overmanned, find a way to win."

Yes.  This.  123%

Also, it's so nice to receive clear, direct answers to questions, instead of ponderous doublespeak.

Edited April 13, 2021 by Doohickie

[LabattBlue]

41 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Not at all. But to be honest the Bills success earns them many indulgences from me.

Fair enough.  We will agree to disagree.  

[LabattBlue]

35 minutes ago, SDS said:

I don’t think this is the right take.  I don’t know what’s in the owners heads, but from that press conference announcing Adams it was clear they were imposing some level of austerity and hitting the reset button for this coming fanless year. Confounding that was the signing of Hall. I don’t know how to reconcile the two, but I don’t believe the owners made all those cuts because they thought that was just fine. I think they took drastic measures to save money in a super weird year and the organization will go back to normal staffing levels moving forward.

We will see what hires take place in the off-season.  I’m not sure how we will determine whether the new hires are any better than the old hires except to see how future seasons play out, and if the prospect pool improves.  
 

 

[sabremike]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Maybe the Sabres don't scare them but the Bruins only have a 4 point lead on the Rangers and Flyers for the 4th playoff spot. I expect them to give 100%.

 

The Sabres can create their own "playoff push." They are 6 points behind Ottawa and 7 behind Anaheim with 2 games in hand on both teams. Getting out of last would be a nice goal over the last 15 games.

But they got lucky with the Bills, right?

This is like defending Dolan for destroying the Knicks by pointing to the success of the rags.

[PASabreFan]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Please don't read this as an endorsement of Granato.

But he might be the most well-versed in the X&Os of any coach we had since Lindy. He's certainly the most experienced.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/104317/don-granato

Thanks. That does change my thinking on him a little bit. It makes me wonder why he hasn't gotten a shot in the NHL before now. I'd still treat him as a candidate after the season as if he never got the interim job here. I don't put much weight on these games. I think that adds up to Granato shouldn't be a serious candidate.

[GASabresIUFAN]

28 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I compared fancy stats (at even strength) for both Kruger and Granato's time with the team this season.     

The short summary is that I believe the turnaround is primarily because of two things....  improved shooting %, and Ullmark.

Kruger:
GF/60: 1.59
GA/60: 3.29
xGF/60: 2.09
xGA/60: 2.59
Shooting %: 5.92
Save %: 88.98
CF%: 48.87
High Danger Chances For / 60:  10.04
High Danger Chances Against / 60:  10.4

 

Granato:
GF/60: 2.69
GA/60: 3.14
xGF/60: 2.18
xGA/60: 2.81
Shooting %: 9.62
Save %: 91.09
CF%: 48.03
High Danger Chances For / 60:  10.3
High Danger Chances Against / 60:  10.75

They're generating the same amount of high danger chances as they were under Kruger, but their SH% (high danger) improved from 12 to 19%.    HDSV% stayed about the same at 80-81%, but overall SV% as improved a few percentage points with Ullmark. 

What does this say about Granato?   Well, he's successfully brought the team out of their shooting % funk.   But that's about it.   Their CF% and HDCA are actually a bit worse under Granato, albeit a smaller sample size.     

Does he deserve consideration as full-time HC moving forward?  Sure, however the underlying possession and high danger numbers are actually slightly worse than they were under Kruger, so buyer beware. 

RK had Eichel, Hall, Staal, and McCabe.  Granato has had none of those players and gave expanded roles to Asplund, Thompson, Bryson and Mitts.  He also got Dahlin and Jokiharju back on track.  So on paper the team is performing better with a younger and theoretically worse roster. 

[LabattBlue]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

RK had Eichel, Hall, Staal, and McCabe.  Granato has had none of those players and gave expanded roles to Asplund, Thompson, Bryson and Mitts.  He also got Dahlin and Jokiharju back on track.  So on paper the team is performing better with a younger and theoretically worse roster. 

While RK was a huge disaster, let’s see what happens now that the Sabres schedule is back to playing the cream of the crop in the division.  

[Doohickie]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They're generating the same amount of high danger chances as they were under Kruger

This doesn't agree with my eye test.  The Sabres didn't look near as dangerous offensively under Krueger.  I'm not saying the numbers are wrong, just that it doesn't match my memory.

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

This doesn't agree with my eye test.  The Sabres didn't look near as dangerous offensively under Krueger.  I'm not saying the numbers are wrong, just that it doesn't match my memory.

I think you want to quote Pi not me.

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Thanks. That does change my thinking on him a little bit. It makes me wonder why he hasn't gotten a shot in the NHL before now. I'd still treat him as a candidate after the season as if he never got the interim job here. I don't put much weight on these games. I think that adds up to Granato shouldn't be a serious candidate.

It may have been life got in the way. He had a serious bout of cancer in his late 30s when his resume was just starting to reach that place.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/31194727/the-human-side-buffalo-sabres-18-game-winless-streak-2021

 

 

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

This doesn't agree with my eye test.  The Sabres didn't look near as dangerous offensively under Krueger.  I'm not saying the numbers are wrong, just that it doesn't match my memory.

I'd go with your memory.

High danger chances measure where the shot was taken from, not where players are in relation to where the shot was taken from — ie how open the shooter and the net are.

Edited April 13, 2021 by dudacek

[Doohickie]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I'd go with your memory.

High danger chances measure where the shot was taken from, not where players are in relation to where the shot was taken from — ie how open the shooter and the net are.

I also mentioned in a similar discussion... while it shows where they shot from, it also doesn't capture whether they were moving or stationary.  I think under Granato there's a lot more movement.

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think you want to quote Pi not me.

Forgive me Father, for I have sinned.

[PromoTheRobot]

23 minutes ago, sabremike said:

This is like defending Dolan for destroying the Knicks by pointing to the success of the rags.

I don't get the analogy. Maybe you clicked the wrong post. I assume you meant me being happy with the Bills thus tolerating the Pegulas over the Sabres.