10th consecutive season without playoffs is here - A DECADE

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, SABRES 0311 said:

Do we throw a party or something? 10 years is impressive.  Shout out to SS posters and all those who still faithfully watch the Sabres hoping this will be the game the franchise turns it around.  
 

I think I lowlight reel of the last 10 years is in order.

It's like a third of my life lol 

[Kruppstahl]

3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

MODO your organizational chart is THE REASON for the lost decade.

 

Not enough people seem to understand this.  Pegula is the cause of all of it, and our problems will remain as long as he is the owner.  Bills fans went through this for basically TWENTY years, not 10.  When it is this messed up for this long, with all these changing parts, it can only be ownership.

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

For a league where literally over 50% of the teams make the playoffs, not making it in a decade is astoundingly embarrassing. 

It's not just embarrassing!  It's actually mathematically nearly impossible.

ESPN's analytics department reported on the odds of the Bills missing the NFL playoffs for 17 years, and that was like 1 in 7 million as I recall.  

The odds of an NHL team--with its playoff structure as it is--not missing for 10 years in a row have to be pretty incredible.

It's actually difficult to do something like that.

Though Pegula does make its look rather easy! 

 

 

 

PS:   Kudos to MODO for realizing the Krueger hire was a freaking joke the moment the news broke here.  Not all of us were stupid enough to think this "outside the box" hire was a good idea.

MODO has been onto the absurdity of this hire from Day 1.  

 

 

[Gatorman0519]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

It's this easy. Too bad we will get this:

1.) Retain Krueger through the season, so that we can fire him several days after it finishes to not have 2 coaches on payroll. 

2.) Not only are the lost games of spring 2021 wasted in this sense, but they will be wasted in terms of player development. Bryson and Borgen (when he gets back) will continue to rotate to the bench so that Irwin and Davidson will continue to receive significant amounts of playing time. Rieder-Eakin-Okposo will survive a nuclear holocaust and continue to churn out minutes in front of our 2 bad goalies. Mitts will play about 35% of the time, a few minutes per game, Tage will play about 20% of the time. Cozens will get one rest day per week. Asplund will get about 5 more games. Joki will spend more time on the taxi squad than off.

3.) We will trade 1 or 2 UFAs, but cite the pandemic and the market dynamics as reason for lack of moves. We will re-sign Hall, setting the stage to move Reinhart first thing this offseason. For middling picks and B prospects

4.) Upon the relief of Krueger's duties, the ensuing press conference will include an announcement that Nate Leaman is the new head coach. Kim explains that we didn't need to go through an interview process, as we remember him from last time and really like his attitude and demeanor. Who is Gerard Galland or Bruce Brodeur? Also, we really feel that we are set for the draft with what we have, so the lack of WHL, Russia or Finland scouts will be permanent. 

5.) To shore up the center spine, we add Brandon Sutter and Riley Nash. Patrick Nemeth and Jack Johnson will do wonders to add grit and a veteran presence to our defense group, and we like the growth mindset of Jonas Johansson, so we will keep him on at backup G. We love the development of our young guys, so the rest of our improvement will be through their continued development. 

6.) 40% increase on tickets and concessions 

you literally just described in perfect detail what will most likely happen.

[WildCard]

6 minutes ago, Kruppstahl said:

It's not just embarrassing!  It's actually mathematically nearly impossible.

ESPN's analytics department reported on the odds of the Bills missing the NFL playoffs for 17 years, and that was like 1 in 7 million as I recall.  

The odds of an NHL team--with its playoff structure as it is--not missing for 10 years in a row have to be pretty incredible.

It's actually difficult to do something like that.

Though Pegula does make its look rather easy!

I'd love some basic odds on this for the Sabres. @IKnowPhysics maybe?

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I'd love some basic odds on this for the Sabres. @IKnowPhysics maybe?

(1/2)^10 = 0.00097

There is almost a 0.1% chance that a team can miss the playoffs 10 straight years in a league where half of them make it every year. 

This is obv an estimate because in reality not every team has the same resources/competence etc.

But if playoffs were decided by coin flips every year that's roughly what the odds of this streak happening are 

[IKnowPhysics]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

(1/2)^10 = 0.00097

There is almost a 0.1% chance that a team can miss the playoffs 10 straight years in a league where half of them make it every year. 

This is obv an estimate because in reality not every team has the same resources/competence etc.

But if playoffs were decided by coin flips every year that's roughly what the odds of this streak happening are 

Yep.  Also assumes no correlation of performance between seasons for any teams (ie a team that's good one season will likely be somewhat good the next season).

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

(1/2)^10 = 0.00097

There is almost a 0.1% chance that a team can miss the playoffs 10 straight years in a league where half of them make it every year. 

This is obv an estimate because in reality not every team has the same resources/competence etc.

But if playoffs were decided by coin flips every year that's roughly what the odds of this streak happening are 

yep, 1/1024

Just now, IKnowPhysics said:

Yep.  Also assumes no correlation of performance between seasons for any teams (ie a team that's good one season will likely be somewhat good the next season).

And of course there is 

[WildCard]

Been a long time since I took any stats class, can you explain why this works to me?

(1/2)^10 = 0.00097

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, WildCard said:

Been a long time since I took any stats class, can you explain why this works to me?

(1/2)^10 = 0.00097

The odds we miss the playoffs the first year are 1/2, since half the teams make it and half the teams miss it.

The odds we miss the first year AND the second year are (1/2) * (1/2), assuming they are uncorrelated events (they aren't, but I lose the ability to give you a number if we assert that they aren't). Similarly, if you flip a coin twice, the probability you get heads first and heads second again is 1/4, or (1/2)*(1/2).

Keep up the pattern, for ten years. this gives you (1/2)*(1/2)*...(1/2) (the tenth time), or (1/2)^10

[WildCard]

Just now, Randall Flagg said:

The odds we miss the playoffs the first year are 1/2, since half the teams make it and half the teams miss it.

The odds we miss the first year AND the second year are (1/2) * (1/2), assuming they are uncorrelated events (they aren't, but I lose the ability to give you a number if we assert that they aren't). Similarly, if you flip a coin twice, the probability you get heads first and heads second again is 1/4, or (1/2)*(1/2).

Keep up the pattern, for ten years. this gives you (1/2)*(1/2)*...(1/2) (the tenth time), or (1/2)^10

Cool, thanks man

[SwampD]

What are the odds of hitting four posts in a game, two by one guy on one shift?

[Randall Flagg]

24 minutes ago, SwampD said:

What are the odds of hitting four posts in a game, two by one guy on one shift?

I don't know, but apparently they increase as a function of X, Y, and Z, where X is the number of Olofssons on your team, Y is the number of Eichels, and Z is the number of hockey gods you've pissed off

[Marvin]

Point of fact:

Before the Pegulas took over, the Buffalo Sabres missed the playoffs 11 times (1970-1, 1971-2, 1973-4, 1985-6, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2001-2, 2002-3, 2003-4, 2007-8, and 2008-9).  Three of those were as an expansion team back when they were designed to have talent like the Sabres do now, one was an ownership transition with the Knoxes, and three others were due to the Rigas's problems.

This sucks.

[DHawerchuk10]

18 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Point of fact:

Before the Pegulas took over, the Buffalo Sabres missed the playoffs 11 times (1970-1, 1971-2, 1973-4, 1985-6, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2001-2, 2002-3, 2003-4, 2007-8, and 2008-9).  Three of those were as an expansion team back when they were designed to have talent like the Sabres do now, one was an ownership transition with the Knoxes, and three others were due to the Rigas's problems.

This sucks.

So to put it another way, we've made the playoffs four times since Hasek left.  Yikes!   

[MODO Hockey]

24 minutes ago, DHawerchuk10 said:

So to put it another way, we've made the playoffs four times since Hasek left.  Yikes!   

Not even Hasek would take this team to playoff aslong as Ralph is behind the bench

[#freejame]

8 hours ago, DHawerchuk10 said:

So to put it another way, we've made the playoffs four times since Hasek left.  Yikes!   

Oof that hurts to read. But hey, two of those seasons were a lot of fun!

[calti]

13 hours ago, WildCard said:

For a league where literally over 50% of the teams make the playoffs, not making it in a decade is astoundingly embarrassing. 

kinda like with the bills... even cleveland blows buffalo out of the water in sports franchise success the past 20 yrs

[Andrew Amerk]

9 hours ago, MODO Hockey said:

Not even Hasek would take this team to playoff aslong as Ralph is behind the bench

This statement makes me think you never got to watch Hasek every game. 

[Thorny]

That this thread could be started less than 50% into that 10th season and it go unquestioned says it all 

[carpandean]

17 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

The odds probability we miss the playoffs the first year are 1/2, since half the teams make it and half the teams miss it.

The odds probability we miss the first year AND the second year are (1/2) * (1/2), assuming they are uncorrelated events (they aren't, but I lose the ability to give you a number if we assert that they aren't). Similarly, if you flip a coin twice, the probability you get heads first and heads second again is 1/4, or (1/2)*(1/2).

Keep up the pattern, for ten years. this gives you (1/2)*(1/2)*...(1/2) (the tenth time), or (1/2)^10

Small fix to common mistake.  Odds = pr(missing)/pr(making) = pr(missing)/(1-pr(missing)).  So, odds of missing in first year are (1/2)/(1/2)= 1 (i.e.: 1:1.)  Odds of missing two years are (1/4)/(3/4) = 1/3 (i.e.: 1:3 or "3:1 against".)  Good news is that they are so bad that after 10 years, the denominator is almost 1: odds of missing 10 = ((1/2)^10)/(1-(1/2)^10) = 0.000977/(1-0.000977) = 0.000978 (or "1023:1 against"). 😁

Edited March 13, 2021 by carpandean

[PASabreFan]

Me dumb.

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, carpandean said:

Small fix to common mistake.  Odds = pr(missing)/pr(making) = pr(missing)/(1-pr(missing)).  So, odds of missing in first year are (1/2)/(1/2)= 1 (i.e.: 1:1.)  Odds of missing two years are (1/4)/(3/4) = 1/3 (i.e.: 1:3 or "3:1 against".)  Good news is that they are so bad that after 10 years, the denominator is almost 1: odds of missing 10 = ((1/2)^10)/(1-(1/2)^10) = 0.000977/(1-0.000977) = 0.000978 (or "1023:1 against"). 😁

So how come I came up with 1/1024 instead of 1/1023 when I went 1/2 x 1/2 x 1x2 x 1x2 x 1x2 x 1/2 x1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2?

[Randall Flagg]

3 hours ago, carpandean said:

Small fix to common mistake.  Odds = pr(missing)/pr(making) = pr(missing)/(1-pr(missing)).  So, odds of missing in first year are (1/2)/(1/2)= 1 (i.e.: 1:1.)  Odds of missing two years are (1/4)/(3/4) = 1/3 (i.e.: 1:3 or "3:1 against".)  Good news is that they are so bad that after 10 years, the denominator is almost 1: odds of missing 10 = ((1/2)^10)/(1-(1/2)^10) = 0.000977/(1-0.000977) = 0.000978 (or "1023:1 against"). 😁

I'll take your word for it - statistics always made me wrinkle my nose, and I only touched it if I absolutely had to 😛

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

So how come I came up with 1/1024 instead of 1/1023 when I went 1/2 x 1/2 x 1x2 x 1x2 x 1x2 x 1/2 x1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2?

Because that 1:1023 isn't a fraction of the same thing the "probability" is. 1/1024 is the same thing as that ratio, that ratio says for every 1 time event 1 happens, event 2 happens 1023, event 1 represents 1 out of 1024 total occurrences.

My mistake was saying the word odds instead of the word probability, just because of sloppiness with definitions that I wasn't aware of. 

Edited March 13, 2021 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

I've actually never seen probability explicitly converted into "odds" like that so that was kinda cool. I've always just offhand pieced one together from the other (without noticing or establishing the precise distinction). (1 - anything) is one of the most satisfying expressions one can ever write. Very elegant

Edited March 13, 2021 by Randall Flagg