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2019-20 Sabres Prospects

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2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

That would be amazing, but I'll eat my hat if it happens.  Max had 3 seasons of 61 or more pts (one of which was 61 in 56 games, and another of which was 73 pts).  I have a hard time seeing Casey putting up 40 pts at any point in his career, and I think it's close to 50/50 that he washes out entirely.

Wasn’t talking so much the point totals with Max, more how the tools always left you wanting more. He was a bonus because you couldn’t count on him to lead, only to occasionally dazzle.

I can easily see Casey scoring 40-50 annually with a 60 thrown in at some point. People forget he scored 37 points in 93 games before he turned 21.

 I agree there is a good chance Mitts washes out entirely if he doesn’t stop approaching the game like pond hockey.

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4 hours ago, SwampD said:

Ftr, I’m pretty sure that the GLO line was to only line in the entire league that was a plus against Bergeron’s “perfection” line. Larry’s a shut down player.

We're going to have to disagree on that one but no point in keeping it going.

I am curious though, since you view him so highly (i.e. not a 4th liner) what number/term would you offer him to stay?

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13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Wasn’t talking so much the point totals with Max, more how the tools always left you wanting more. He was a bonus because you couldn’t count on him to lead, only to occasionally dazzle.

I can easily see Casey scoring 40-50 annually with a 60 thrown in at some point. People forget he scored 37 points in 93 games before he turned 21.

 I agree there is a good chance Mitts washes out entirely if he doesn’t stop approaching the game like pond hockey.

Well, I think this is fair for the early part of Max's career, but over time he developed into a major, and not occasional, contributor -- not on par with Drury or Briere (and I agree with your point on leadership), but right there IMHO with Vanek, Roy, Pommer, etc.  His speed put a ton of pressure on the opposing D.  He was also an underrated playmaker who could pass it as well, if not better, than he shot it.  Also, the Sabres sending him out with a couple of talented linemates on their 3rd line created major matchup problems for the opponent.

If Mitts ends up contributing as much as Max did, it will be a major win for the Sabres and a big surprise to me.  I never saw Max looking anywhere near as lost and hopeless as Casey looked this past season.

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^^^^

I'm not nearly as down on Mitts as you and some others are. I think his biggest issue isn't skill or talent but immaturity. Playing with his high school team instead of staying with his development program is a flag for me. I don't think he took his livelihood/career seriously enough and I'm still hopeful that him getting placed in AHL was the beginning of him wakening up. Some kids are ready for the world early and others need to become more of an adult down the road. He reminds me of a kid that hadn't faced adversity yet and found some last year. To me his hands are elite and that skill will serve him well down the road, hopefully here and sooner than later.

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2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I think this is fair for the early part of Max's career, but over time he developed into a major, and not occasional, contributor -- not on par with Drury or Briere (and I agree with your point on leadership), but right there IMHO with Vanek, Roy, Pommer, etc.  His speed put a ton of pressure on the opposing D.  He was also an underrated playmaker who could pass it as well, if not better, than he shot it.  Also, the Sabres sending him out with a couple of talented linemates on their 3rd line created major matchup problems for the opponent.

If Mitts ends up contributing as much as Max did, it will be a major win for the Sabres and a big surprise to me.  I never saw Max looking anywhere near as lost and hopeless as Casey looked this past season.

Well, I think you are remembering Max at 27, not 21.

Casey had 37 points in 93 NHL games before he turned 21. Max had 34 in 65.

Next 4 seasons for Max: 36, 40, 11, 31 points; sometimes it takes time.

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16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Well, I think you are remembering Max at 27, not 21.

Casey had 37 points in 93 NHL games before he turned 21. Max had 34 in 65.

Next 4 seasons for Max: 36, 40, 11, 31 points; sometimes it takes time.

It's true, people forget Maxim was polished player when the league came back from the lockout. He actually started on a speed line with Sanderson and Holzinger waaay back before we even had lost Hasek and started the mini-dip of the early 00's before rebounding to the Drury-Briere-led teams.

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1 hour ago, jsb said:

^^^^

I'm not nearly as down on Mitts as you and some others are. I think his biggest issue isn't skill or talent but immaturity. Playing with his high school team instead of staying with his development program is a flag for me. I don't think he took his livelihood/career seriously enough and I'm still hopeful that him getting placed in AHL was the beginning of him wakening up. Some kids are ready for the world early and others need to become more of an adult down the road. He reminds me of a kid that hadn't faced adversity yet and found some last year. To me his hands are elite and that skill will serve him well down the road, hopefully here and sooner than later.

I sure hope you're right, and I agree that the signs of immaturity are there, and that this often improves over time.  My bigger concern though is that Casey's alleged talent simply doesn't exist.  I do not see any signs whatsoever of Mitts being able to process the game at NHL speed.  When he has the puck in the o-zone -- which is pretty rare, as his line spends most of its time chasing the puck in the d-zone -- the opposing defender is able to simply take it away like Mitts isn't even there.  And it didn't sound like it was much better when Mitts was in Rochester either.

Time will tell.

 

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Well, I think you are remembering Max at 27, not 21.

Casey had 37 points in 93 NHL games before he turned 21. Max had 34 in 65.

Next 4 seasons for Max: 36, 40, 11, 31 points; sometimes it takes time.

Max was also able to produce in the AHL substantially better than Casey did (18 pts in 15 games vs 25 pts in 36 games for Casey).  Max was also essentially a 40-pt guy in his 1st 3 NHL seasons, other than the 11-pt season, which he missed more than half of with a concussion, and the following season, in which he had 31 pts.

Apples and crabapples.

Overall, I will reiterate that, as with Nylander last year, I'm in no hurry to cut Casey loose.  The Sabres should not do so until he needs to clear waivers or they have to make a significant contractual commitment to keep him.  Until then, he should stay in Rochester.  In the meantime, I'm happy to include him in a package for a good player if the other team wants him, and I'm definitely not counting on him.

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On 9/9/2020 at 6:53 AM, LGR4GM said:

For the record, Rasmus Dahlin measured 6' 2.75" at the combine but Pronman is using elite prospects for his height so that's where he gets 6'2" from. 

I would also note that Pronman has never been a big Dahlin fan going back to 2018. I mention this because he has a line about Dahlin not being a big hard defensemen but at 6'3" and 205lbs as a 20 year old... he's pretty big and he's mean down low. 

Right now, when he talks, he exudes young and determined. Soon he'll just be determined. 

On 9/9/2020 at 11:36 AM, Brawndo said:

 

 Came to post this. 

I, personally, am going to have to create a paragraph for Botterill positives just for the purpose of mentioning his selection of Cozens, after this kid reveals himself to be The Answer, aren't I?

Edited by Thorny

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15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right now, when he talks, he exudes young and determined. Soon he'll just be determined. 

 Came to post this. 

I, personally, am going to have to create a paragraph for Botterill positives just for the purpose of mentioning his selection of Cozens, after this kid reveals himself to be The Answer, aren't I?

If Cozens becomes "Point-esque" is  that enough to move JB below TM as worst Sabres GM of all-time?  What if Joki's acceleration to solidify the right  side on the second pairing happens this year?  What about Pekar, UPL, Laaksonen, or Sameulsson breaking through within 12-18 months.   Or Ryan Johnson's development getting back on track.   What combination  of these would elevate TM to worst of all-time?  

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6 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

If Cozens becomes "Point-esque" is  that enough to move JB below TM as worst Sabres GM of all-time?  What if Joki's acceleration to solidify the right  side on the second pairing happens this year?  What about Pekar, UPL, Laaksonen, or Sameulsson breaking through within 12-18 months.   Or Ryan Johnson's development getting back on track.   What combination  of these would elevate TM to worst of all-time?  

The bolded alone would likely do it for me. Murray wasn't a very good GM overall. I liked his overall tendencies more but I don't rank him all that much higher than Botterill. 

Point is a borderline, what, elite player? He seems to be one of the best centres in the game, really. If we get a player like that from that pick, when there WERE other reasonable options on the table, it deserves a major kudos. 

My take is that Cozens is going to be a good NHLer. I try to keep my expectations reasonable though when I can - I credit Botterill already with what seems to be a good selection, but if he becomes Point, it's a foundational selection. 

I'm admittedly far less sold on the likelihood of much of the other stuff you mentioned. 

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1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Right now, when he talks, he exudes young and determined. Soon he'll just be determined. 

 Came to post this. 

I, personally, am going to have to create a paragraph for Botterill positives just for the purpose of mentioning his selection of Cozens, after this kid reveals himself to be The Answer, aren't I?

There are good Botterill moves, and depending on how some guys turn out, there could be quite a few.

IF:

-Cozens becomes a 60+ point 2-way C
-Lukkonen becomes an above average starting goalie
-Jokiharju becomes a stalwart, steady top-4 RD
-Kahun is decent, versatile top-6 RW/LW

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I would really like to know who drafted Cozens. I agree JB made the final call, but who really was pushing for Cozens? Was it a consensus or what there an individual gunning for him? And is he still employed by the Sabres? We’ll probably never know, but someone knows. 

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1 hour ago, kas23 said:

I would really like to know who drafted Cozens. I agree JB made the final call, but who really was pushing for Cozens? Was it a consensus or what there an individual gunning for him? And is he still employed by the Sabres? We’ll probably never know, but someone knows. 

Almost every player drafted is some sort of consensus. Most NHL GM’s have no idea who the players are and rely on their scouts. Tim Murray was one of the few GM’s who did any actual scouting.

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3 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Almost every player drafted is some sort of consensus. Most NHL GM’s have no idea who the players are and rely on their scouts. Tim Murray was one of the few GM’s who did any actual scouting.

I think Murray was historically a good talent spotter. And I think he would have been better being Scouting Manager, rather than General Manager

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4 hours ago, Thorny said:

 Came to post this. 

 

YDIW

You are supposed to jump onto this forum, full of excitement like a 4yr old at 5am on Christmas morning for your find, not read any posts to see if it is already being discussed, and start a new thread to have two places to discuss it.

Right, GA?

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14 hours ago, Trettioåtta said:

I think Murray was historically a good talent spotter. And I think he would have been better being Scouting Manager, rather than General Manager

Murray didn't even draft well.

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Now that Pronman is done ranking players under 22, we can turn our attention to actual prospects. We rank 23. I fully agree with what they say here because this is the reality of our prospect pool. Tage and Mitts don't honestly make this that much different if they were included. We need to hit on at least 3 players in the 2020 draft especially with our first 2 picks. 

https://hockeyprospecting.com/2020/09/15/team-strength-rankings-21-to-31-sept-2020/

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2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Now that Pronman is done ranking players under 22, we can turn our attention to actual prospects. We rank 23. I fully agree with what they say here because this is the reality of our prospect pool. Tage and Mitts don't honestly make this that much different if they were included. We need to hit on at least 3 players in the 2020 draft especially with our first 2 picks. 

https://hockeyprospecting.com/2020/09/15/team-strength-rankings-21-to-31-sept-2020/

If they hit on 3 players with their first 2 picks, Kevy will have my full confidence.  😉

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