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2019-20 Sabres Prospects

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1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Scott Wheeler released His Top 50 Drafted Prospects.

 

Cozens who was Number 1 on the last list, dropped to 8th.  I can see Laf and Byfield ahead, but The other five not so much.
 

Recency bias at its finest.

 

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Quinn is 48th? 

lol that list is rough. 

Just 1 example of why. Drake Betherson at 27. That is a player that is decent and has a good shot of being a middle 6 forward. Compared to a Jarvis or Quinn, 2 guys that will grade out as top 6 if not top line players. 

Dear lord Morgan Frost is ranked below Batherson... lol come on now. Arthur Kaliyev above Jack Quinn is hilarious. Lundell at 16? 

This is list is basically useless unless you just want to know some names of players that are good outside of the NHL. Cozens behind Alex Holtz... lol. 

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3 hours ago, Thorny said:

I think I'd have Cozens at 3. 

I might even have him hop Byfield to be honest but only just barely. Mainly based on Byfield's rawness 

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I honestly don't wonder anymore why the Sabres are bad. They draft like idiots year after year after year after year. They better hope they are right on Quinn because right now, a multitude of ppl say they ***** up. 

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While I agree about Rossi, his definition isn't broad enough. Because Mitts and Thompson played over 100 games they aren't considered prospect in his world.  Where would we be with both back on his list?  They should be.  Both are under 23 and not in the NHL.  The 100 games cut off is BS in my humble opinion as each prospect develops differently.  If they had 200 games in the AHL, they still be prospects and that is way more pro experience.  

That said the Sabres have drafted poorly for years.  TM and DR did a terrible job.  We can't fully evaluate JB yet as most of his kids are still developing, but many criticize his over drafting of D; although the prior administrations didn't draft many D at all except 2013.  We have nothing for 2016 so far, Eichel from 2015, and Reinhart and VO from 2014.  That 3 players so far from 3 drafts.  Awful, especially with 2 of the 3 being 2nd overall picks.  Compound with trading of many of the extra picks and why is it surprising that we have so little depth.  Out of TM's 5 2nd rd picks the Sabres don't have a single player. 1 of the 5 are NHL players but of course TM traded him away.  

Also DR failed. In 2010 all we had was Pysyk out of 9 picks. 2011 Armia (also traded before he developed) and that's it from 6 picks.  2012 was a success sort of in that we drafted 4 NHL players, and 3 made a depth impact on the Sabres in McCabe, Girgensons and Ullmark, but none is a star by any stretch of the imagination and we nearly destroyed the 4th player in Grigorenko (TM also trade him away).  2013 was a similar story, 3 players all at the top of the draft, but 2 traded away before they developed and only Risto was kept.

Between poor development, poor drafting and foolish trades, is it really a surprise this team is mired in failure?

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
I honestly don't wonder anymore why the Sabres are bad. They draft like idiots year after year after year after year. They better hope they are right on Quinn because right now, a multitude of ppl say they ***** up. 

The question is if the Bader system includes Dahlin and Jokiharju.

And who'll be laughing all the way to the Space Bank when Cronholm, Worge-Kreu, Kukkonen, and Laaksonen, and Davidsson, Cederqvist, and Rousek all turn in NHL-roster caliber players in 3 years. JBot! That's who.

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20 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The question is if the Bader system includes Dahlin and Jokiharju.

And who'll be laughing all the way to the Space Bank when Cronholm, Worge-Kreu, Kukkonen, and Laaksonen, and Davidsson, Cederqvist, and Rousek all turn in NHL-roster caliber players in 3 years. JBot! That's who.

True, if you have an NHL team full of talented 19-25 year olds and a weak prospect pool, it’s different than having an NHL team full of talented 29-35 year olds and a weak prospect pool.  Still it’s important to have a semi consistent influx of cheap young players on their ELC and RFA contracts.

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27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

While I agree about Rossi, his definition isn't broad enough. Because Mitts and Thompson played over 100 games they aren't considered prospect in his world.  Where would we be with both back on his list?  They should be.  Both are under 23 and not in the NHL.  The 100 games cut off is BS in my humble opinion as each prospect develops differently.  If they had 200 games in the AHL, they still be prospects and that is way more pro experience.  

 

26 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The question is if the Bader system includes Dahlin and Jokiharju.

And who'll be laughing all the way to the Space Bank when Cronholm, Worge-Kreu, Kukkonen, and Laaksonen, and Davidsson, Cederqvist, and Rousek all turn in NHL-roster caliber players in 3 years. JBot! That's who.

Sorry but these are both excuses. Other teams have players from the 2017 Draft (Mitts) and 2016 draft (Tage) that aren't counted either but they are still ranked above us. Carolina continuously drafts well despite players graduating from the prospect ranks. You want to make excuses that because so and so is not counted anymore we are low, but the truth is we are low because without so and so there isn't anyone else. It is draft after draft of getting 1 guy. It is draft after draft of not getting value. It is draft after draft of failure. 

I see a sliver of hope in this years draft but also a forest of concern. Make excuses but the Sabres have a bad prospect pool because they draft bad, not because Tage, Mitts, and Dahlin no longer count as prospects. Also Tage was not a Sabres pick nor was Jokiharju so they don't count in the grand scheme of do you draft well. 

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Just now, LGR4GM said:

 

Sorry but these are both excuses. Other teams have players from the 2017 Draft (Mitts) and 2016 draft (Tage) that aren't counted either but they are still ranked above us. Carolina continuously drafts well despite players graduating from the prospect ranks. You want to make excuses that because so and so is not counted anymore we are low, but the truth is we are low because without so and so there isn't anyone else. It is draft after draft of getting 1 guy. It is draft after draft of not getting value. It is draft after draft of failure. 

I see a sliver of hope in this years draft but also a forest of concern. Make excuses but the Sabres have a bad prospect pool because they draft bad, not because Tage, Mitts, and Dahlin no longer count as prospects. Also Tage was not a Sabres pick nor was Jokiharju so they don't count in the grand scheme of do you draft well. 

You never read the entire post.

I said:

Quote

That said the Sabres have drafted poorly for years.  

And then enumerated all the bad drafting, poor trade decisions and poor development decisions that destroyed our prospect pool

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1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You never read the entire post.

I said:

And then enumerated all the bad drafting, poor trade decisions and poor development decisions that destroyed our prospect pool

I did read the entire post. Twice actually. Hence why I only quoted the part of your post I wanted to talk about and left off the rest, because I had read it all. 

Botterill did a terrible job drafting. I can evaluate him on that right now. He might have 1 goalie and 2 defenders coming but everything else is bad. 

2019: Cozens, everything else is either a project goalie (they all are) or a project defender (Johnson)

2018: Dahlin was a duh, Samuelsson may be an NHL defender some day. 

2017: Mitts? Davidson, doubt it highly. UPL, hopefully but we will see. Bryson, got a shot. Laaksonen, got a shot. 

It is interesting that the best year of Botterill drafting is the last year that Murray's influence on drafting was visible. 

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Well, I guess we can all agree it was a good thing we fired most of our scouts and revamped our method of evaluation, then right?

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1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I did read the entire post. Twice actually. Hence why I only quoted the part of your post I wanted to talk about and left off the rest, because I had read it all. 

Botterill did a terrible job drafting. I can evaluate him on that right now. He might have 1 goalie and 2 defenders coming but everything else is bad. 

2019: Cozens, everything else is either a project goalie (they all are) or a project defender (Johnson)

2018: Dahlin was a duh, Samuelsson may be an NHL defender some day. 

2017: Mitts? Davidson, doubt it highly. UPL, hopefully but we will see. Bryson, got a shot. Laaksonen, got a shot. 

It is interesting that the best year of Botterill drafting is the last year that Murray's influence on drafting was visible. 

Jbot drafted 18 players.  You could have as many as 5 players from year 1, 3 from year 2 including Pekar, 4 or 5 from year 3 depending if Huglen develops.  I think 8 of the 12 have a very good shot at being NHL players or are already NHLers including Dahlin, Cozens, Mitts, Samuelsson, Johnson, Pekar, Bryson and Laaksonnen.  Add at least one of the 2 goalies and that's averaging 3 players per draft.  TM and DR didn't come close.  However, it will be years before we know for sure.  

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3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jbot drafted 18 players.  You could have as many as 5 players from year 1, 3 from year 2 including Pekar, 4 or 5 from year 3 depending if Huglen develops.  I think 8 of the 12 have a very good shot at being NHL players or are already NHLers including Dahlin, Cozens, Mitts, Samuelsson, Johnson, Pekar, Bryson and Laaksonnen.  Add at least one of the 2 goalies and that's averaging 3 players per draft.  TM and DR didn't come close.  However, it will be years before we know for sure.  

This is a post I have been wanting to make for awhile. I keep hearing how bad JBOT drafted but there are still a lot of unknowns.

As far as prospects in general, all that really matters is how they end up impacting the franchise and I for one could care less how they are rated before that’s determined.

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48 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Well, I guess we can all agree it was a good thing we fired most of our scouts and revamped our method of evaluation, then right?

Doesn't seem to have improved anything

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5 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Doesn't seem to have improved anything

Yeah, I know!  0 NHL games played from the 2020 draft is unacceptable!

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Profile of Ryan Jones, an under-the-radar college free agent we signed this summer.

https://www.nwitimes.com/sports/hockey/professional/crown-point-native-ryan-jones-takes-unorthodox-journey-to-ahls-rochester-americans/article_bdd5e5bb-e6a6-559c-a28e-d10125fb31b2.html

 

Edited by dudacek

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Sorry but these are both excuses.

It's not my fault! I trusted them to fix it!

The other excuse I’ll make for our prospect pool is that we’ve traded away a lot of picks and we haven’t returned a lot of prospects in our trades. We’ve traded to improve the NHL roster --- which sounds odd when you consider we’ve been in a tear-down and rebuild for the last 7 seasons. And no, it doesn’t mean we would’ve drafted better, just more volume and the chance for more hits.

On the one hand, it’s OK to trade picks to rebuild the NHL roster because “you can’t sign them all” and you want to “Win now!”. On the other dismembered-by-lightsaber hand, it impacts the prospect pool. It’s especially glaring for JBott who vowed to rebuild the pipeline and Rochester, and then traded away high picks several times.

Examples: Traded a 1st for Lehner ; Traded a 1st for Montour ; Traded two 2nds for Skinner. Edit: The ROR trade only brought back Tage as a prospect along with two NHL roster players; the Kane trade (admittedly a rental so we weren't getting a top prospect, only brought back O'Regan with the 1st and not some 19 year-old "reach" prospect in SJ's pipeline.)

Edited by DarthEbriate
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Hot take: Next year the Sabres prospect pool takes a big leap in the eyes of prospect watchers because nobody graduates, Peterka and Quinn chew up the WJCs and Lukkonnen is in the conversation for the AHL's best goalie.

Also, players that are either being discounted or ignored as top prospects around the league (Kubalik, Olofsson) will emerge, while others that are being highly-touted (Tolvanen, Mittelstadt) will flop. Guaranteed.

These things are cyclical and these lists rarely correspond to reality.

Edited by dudacek
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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Hot take: Next year the Sabres prospect pool takes a big leap in the eyes of prospect watchers because nobody graduates, Peterka and Quinn chew up the WJCs and Lukkonnen is in the conversation for the AHL's best goalie.

Also, players that are either being discounted or ignored as top prospects around the league (Kubalik, Olofsson) will emerge, while others that are being highly-touted (Tolvanen, Mittelstadt) will flop. Guaranteed.

These things are cyclical and these lists rarely correspond to reality.

Well said, except I don't think Mitts is going to fail.  I think he'll be one of the big surprises this winter and spring.  I know people gave Jbot much crap for drafting D, but isn't it nice to gave 6 decent to very good D prospects in our system right now?  I wonder if Murray will build on last season and how Pekar will fare in his first pro season.  If those two do well, we are looking at what you predicted.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Well said, except I don't think Mitts is going to fail.  I think he'll be one of the big surprises this winter and spring.

Yeah, I didn't even mean flop in terms of his career, just in terms of how the listers rate them.

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Just now, dudacek said:

Yeah, I didn't even mean flop in terms of his career, just in terms of how the listers rate them.

Sadly they don't list him anymore because he has played 100 NHL games.  

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Another list. This one rates the Sabres #7 despite disagreeing with the Quinn pick. For the record, Quinn is ranked as our #5 guy here, between Casey and Tage. Dahlin, Cozens and Jokiharju are 1,2,3

https://theathletic.com/2135405/2020/10/20/nhl-org-rankings-2-0-pronmans-post-draft-rating-of-every-teams-young-talent/

Sabres got passed by the Hurricanes, Kings and Senators, and jumped ahead of the Canucks on the strength of this draft.

Edited by dudacek

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1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Another list. This one rates the Sabres #7 despite disagreeing with the Quinn pick.

https://theathletic.com/2135405/2020/10/20/nhl-org-rankings-2-0-pronmans-post-draft-rating-of-every-teams-young-talent/

Quote

The criteria for players considered in this ranking changed this year. All players in an organization who were 22 years old or younger as of Sept. 15, 2020, regardless of how many NHL games they’ve played, along with the rest of the players in the pipeline, were included. 

I really like this definition and is something I've argued for a long time.  It's a more accurate view of the pipeline then eliminating a player not in the NHL simply on games played.  

Not a surprise we are ranked high when Dahlin, Jokiharju, Thompson and Mitts are added back in.

 

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3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jbot drafted 18 players.  You could have as many as 5 players from year 1, 3 from year 2 including Pekar, 4 or 5 from year 3 depending if Huglen develops.  I think 8 of the 12 have a very good shot at being NHL players or are already NHLers including Dahlin, Cozens, Mitts, Samuelsson, Johnson, Pekar, Bryson and Laaksonnen.  Add at least one of the 2 goalies and that's averaging 3 players per draft.  TM and DR didn't come close.  However, it will be years before we know for sure.  

You can believe that if you want. Dahlin, Cozens, 1 maybe 2 defenders and 1 of the goalies will be the NHL players that matter from Botterill's time here. 

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12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You can believe that if you want. Dahlin, Cozens, 1 maybe 2 defenders and 1 of the goalies will be the NHL players that matter from Botterill's time here. 

"That matter"  What does that mean?  Top 6, Top 9, plays 100+ games? plays 300+ games, is traded like Nylander for a great asset?  What does "that matter" mean if anything? Is Girgensons a pick that matters?  He has played 489 games for the Sabres but mostly in a bottom 6 role.  Were Mike Weber or Andrew Peters picks that matter?

Building a team is not only drafting top 6 forwards or top 4 D, is about building depth in your organization so that you can have next man up like Pitt had and Carolina has created now so that as players move on you have someone ready to step in.

If Bryson becomes a 3rd pairing D that ends up playing for us for 3-4 seasons, that is a pick that matters.  If UPL develops into a starter and Portillo becomes his backup, both those picks matter.  If Rousek and Pekar become our energy line for a few years or more, like Girgensons and Larsson, they matter also.

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