Tage Thompson: what's the deal?

[Hoss]

56 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Here's my issue with any of these theories, if any of them are true or what is going on, WHY THE F##K! DID WE TRADE FOR THOMPSON? For real, if he was promised time and isn't good enough, or they didn't have a Rochester spot, or they thought he would be better, or he has an attitude about playing in the AHL, if any of that is true why in hell was he the targeted prospect. I already didn't want him compared to other Blues prospects but it sounds like Botterill screwed up on this one. Until I see otherwise that is what I think. 

Again: I imagine he wasn’t the targeted prospect. I’m sure they targeted Kyrou and Thomas and even others. I imagine they we would feel just as annoyed with the alternatives.

The question becomes whether or not Botterill should’ve made the deal if TT was the best he could get, not why was TT targeted.

That’s a question I legitimately don’t think we’ll ever really know the true factors of but it’s a discussion we can and should continue having.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

I thought @GASabresIUFAN had a potentially interesting suggestion -- that this may also be about what they want to build in Roch. I had an interesting conversation recently with a guy who has a kid who's made a fine career out of playing as a veteran in the AHL (and getting some sniffs in the big league along the way). He was explaining to me in some detail how AHL rosters are structured between vets, half-vets (?), and developmental players, or what have you. I guess I hadn't realized how express the requirement for balance is among the various kinds of players. It seems quite plausible to me that JBOT looks at the Americans roster and doesn't want to add another player of Thompson's vintage to that squad, given what they having going on in Roch.

Outside of that sort of consideration, I cannot understand why he's not there playing big minutes.

What your friend means by half-vets is guys with 3 seasons plus of AHL/NHL experience but haven’t reached the AHL definition of veteran.  A Veteran in the AHL has over 260 games of pro experience at the start of the season.  AHL teams can dress 18 skaters per night with a max of 6 vets and one of the six must be under 320 games at the start of the season.  Teams can dress as many developmental players as they want (players with under 260 games of pro experience).

Developmental 1 - 260 games or less of pro experience - all 18 can be from this category, but 12 must be.

Developmental 2 - 261 to 320 pro game experience - teams can dress up to 6 players from this category.

Veterans - 320 or more of pro experience. Teams can dress a max of 5 players from this category.

As to TT. I figure Jbot maybe happy with the chemistry in Rochester, and isn’t ready to recall VO, Smith or Nylander. Therefore doesn’t want to send TT down.  To send him down without a call up of someone else, would likely mean putting him in a top 6 role there which would mean diminishing the role of an effective player in Roch.  This appears to be something Jbot doesn’t want to do right now with the Amerks playing so well.  

So I think TT is here until we recall someone from the Amerks or someone in the Amerks top 6 gets hurt. 

Edited November 5, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Sabres Fan in NS]

35 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Might it be Tage who is nursing something and they don't want to put him on ir?

This very well could be the case, but what would be the disadvantage of putting him on IR?

[Hank]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What your friend means by half-vets is guys with 3 seasons plus of AHL/NHL experience but haven’t reached the AHL definition of veteran.  A Veteran in the AHL has over 260 games of pro experience at the start of the season.  AHL teams can 18 skaters per night with a max of 6 vets and one of the six must be under under 320 games at the start of the season.  Teams can dress as many developmental players as they want (players with under 260 games of pro experience).

Developmental 1 - 260 games or less of pro experience - all 18 can be from this catalogue

Developmental 2 - 261 to 320 pro game experience - teams can dress up to 6 players from this category.

Veterans - 320 or more of pro experience. Teams can dress a max of 5 players from this category.

As to TT. I figure Jbot maybe happy with the chemistry in Rochester, and isn’t ready to recall VO, Smith or Nylander. Therefore doesn’t want to send TT down.  To send him down without a call up of someone else, would likely mean putting him in a top 6 role there which would mean diminishing the role of an effective player in Roch.  This appears to be something Jbot doesn’t want to do right now with the Amerks playing so well.  

So I think TT is here until we recall someone from the Amerks or someone in the Amerks gets hurt. 

Thank you for breaking that down, very informative. Do you know if the top European leagues count as professional? Or is it only AHL/NHL?

[LTS]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Here's my issue with any of these theories, if any of them are true or what is going on, WHY THE F##K! DID WE TRADE FOR THOMPSON? For real, if he was promised time and isn't good enough, or they didn't have a Rochester spot, or they thought he would be better, or he has an attitude about playing in the AHL, if any of that is true why in hell was he the targeted prospect. I already didn't want him compared to other Blues prospects but it sounds like Botterill screwed up on this one. Until I see otherwise that is what I think. 

If you allow for the possibility that the trade was more to remove O'Reilly than necessarily to trade for Thompson it might work better.  If the Blues deal was the best Botterill could get for ROR then he took the best deal.  If he felt ROR needed to be moved then it was addition by subtraction.  We keep focusing on the return when it could be more the give that was important.

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

I thought @GASabresIUFAN had a potentially interesting suggestion -- that this may also be about what they want to build in Roch. I had an interesting conversation recently with a guy who has a kid who's made a fine career out of playing as a veteran in the AHL (and getting some sniffs in the big league along the way). He was explaining to me in some detail how AHL rosters are structured between vets, half-vets (?), and developmental players, or what have you. I guess I hadn't realized how express the requirement for balance is among the various kinds of players. It seems quite plausible to me that JBOT looks at the Americans roster and doesn't want to add another player of Thompson's vintage to that squad, given what they having going on in Roch.

Outside of that sort of consideration, I cannot understand why he's not there playing big minutes.

Thompson isn't going to learn to skate any faster in the AHL.  He lumbers around the rink and I think he doesn't fit with the Amerks style of play. I think what you have here is very plausible.  He's just not a fit for the AHL and his best chance of success is being around the Sabres.  Either way, it doesn't mean he will succeed.

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, LTS said:

If you allow for the possibility that the trade was more to remove O'Reilly than necessarily to trade for Thompson it might work better.  If the Blues deal was the best Botterill could get for ROR then he took the best deal.  If he felt ROR needed to be moved then it was addition by subtraction.  We keep focusing on the return when it could be more the give that was important.

Thompson isn't going to learn to skate any faster in the AHL.  He lumbers around the rink and I think he doesn't fit with the Amerks style of play. I think what you have here is very plausible.  He's just not a fit for the AHL and his best chance of success is being around the Sabres.  Either way, it doesn't mean he will succeed.

I think his speed won't be an issue if he can develop enough strength to protect the puck well. He's too lanky right now to be good at that

[GASabresIUFAN]

One other thought on TT.  He played 41 games in the NHL last season and while not great, he secure a role on a good team for the second half of the season.  

While we may believe that TT needs more seasoning in the AHL, management may believe that playing in the minors isn’t the best course of action for him right now.  I’m not saying I agree (I don’t) but Jbot continues to earn the benefit of the doubt from me.

As to why we acquired TT, who is our next best RW prospect? Jbot didn’t know the VO would adjust so quickly to the NA game and to a positron change. Jbot didn’t know that Nylander would find his game.  Entering this past off-season our best RW prospect was Davidsson and he is 2-3 years from the NHL when you consider this season in Sweden plus a year or 2 in Rochester.  Olofsson, Nylander and Smith are really LW prospects and Asplund is a center.

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 minutes ago, Hank said:

Thank you for breaking that down, very informative. Do you know if the top European leagues count as professional? Or is it only AHL/NHL?

Yes, Euro elite leagues only.  I assume that means SHL, KHL, SM-Liiga, DEL and Swiss-A.  I also don’t know if there is an age limit.  For example if a prospect players a few games in the SHL before 18 does it count toward the 260 limit. 

[LTS]

8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think his speed won't be an issue if he can develop enough strength to protect the puck well. He's too lanky right now to be good at that

I agree.  Have to hope he develops that strength.  While I am sure he can get the same weight program in Rochester I have to believe there are some economic differences in what is spent on other aspects for the players.  Perhaps those differences favor Thompson being in Buffalo as well.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Here's my issue with any of these theories, if any of them are true or what is going on, WHY THE F##K! DID WE TRADE FOR THOMPSON? For real, if he was promised time and isn't good enough, or they didn't have a Rochester spot, or they thought he would be better, or he has an attitude about playing in the AHL, if any of that is true why in hell was he the targeted prospect. I already didn't want him compared to other Blues prospects but it sounds like Botterill screwed up on this one. Until I see otherwise that is what I think. 

 

1 hour ago, Hoss said:

Again: I imagine he wasn’t the targeted prospect. I’m sure they targeted Kyrou and Thomas and even others. I imagine they we would feel just as annoyed with the alternatives.

The question becomes whether or not Botterill should’ve made the deal if TT was the best he could get, not why was TT targeted.

That’s a question I legitimately don’t think we’ll ever really know the true factors of but it’s a discussion we can and should continue having.

Yep.  It's extremely doubtful that Thompson was the targeted prospect, but the Sabres needed A prospect coming back in the deal.  It looks like Tage was the best of what could be pried away.

And, as LTS mentioned, this deal really seemed to be about changing the room from the Sabres perspective. & apparently about shedding albatross-ish contracts from St. Louis' perspective.  

The Sabres needed some youth coming back to sell the deal to the fans (a 3rd plug to try to even the value would NOT have flown) & the Blues needed to limit what damage bringing a very good player that always (except once early in his career) seems to end up on underachieving teams (thus the top 10 protection on the pick & Tage coming back rather than Kyrou).  

If the Blues were reasonably positive  that O'Reilly would've been that missing piece to right the ship & get to true contender status, they'd have been willing to offer more (Kyrou perhaps?) to ensure the deal was completed.  That the haul was merely a couple of bottom 6 vets that the fans wanted gone, a protected 1st, & a non-A-list prospect, says there was something amiss with what the Blues saw valuewise for ROR.  That that was the best offer made for ROR says there was something amiss leaguewide in what outsiders saw valuewise for O'Reilly.  And that the Sabres traded him for this says Botterill really wanted him gone.  And that last one is where we are having difficulties with the trade.  We only are privy to the tangibles he brings on ice, & only a very limited amount of the intangibles.

[TrueBlueGED]

17 hours ago, nfreeman said:

In this scenario, JBott and Howie would be disagreeing over TT, innit?  So JBott wants to keep him up and presumably wants him to play, but Howie doesn’t want to play him?

Possible but seems unlikely.

I don't think it's that unlikely. For instance, I doubt Botterill envisioned Berglund skating 6 minutes on the 4th line

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, LTS said:

I agree.  Have to hope he develops that strength.  While I am sure he can get the same weight program in Rochester I have to believe there are some economic differences in what is spent on other aspects for the players.  Perhaps those differences favor Thompson being in Buffalo as well.

Oh come on, at this point we are just making excuses. The guy wasn't ready and they should send him down. 

[TrueBlueGED]

1 hour ago, LTS said:

If you allow for the possibility that the trade was more to remove O'Reilly than necessarily to trade for Thompson it might work better.  If the Blues deal was the best Botterill could get for ROR then he took the best deal.  If he felt ROR needed to be moved then it was addition by subtraction.  We keep focusing on the return when it could be more the give that was important.

Thompson isn't going to learn to skate any faster in the AHL.  He lumbers around the rink and I think he doesn't fit with the Amerks style of play. I think what you have here is very plausible.  He's just not a fit for the AHL and his best chance of success is being around the Sabres.  Either way, it doesn't mean he will succeed.

If his skating is an impediment to his success in the AHL, how the heck is it better for him to be in the NHL? Are the Sabres really slower than the Amerks? 

[LTS]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Oh come on, at this point we are just making excuses. The guy wasn't ready and they should send him down. 

No, it's not an excuse... and I'll explain below.

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

If his skating is an impediment to his success in the AHL, how the heck is it better for him to be in the NHL? Are the Sabres really slower than the Amerks? 

Yes, I would imagine they might be slower in a sense.  Thompson doesn't fit the game they want the prospects learning.  So, putting him down there might ruin the Amerks because he pretty much HAS to play whereas in Buffalo everyone can see why he's scratched.

I went from thinking "Why he should be in Rochester" to "Why isn't he in Rochester?".  There's a reason and I don't think it reflects well on Thompson's future with the Sabres. 

[LGR4GM]

So the new shiny prospect is being scratched in Buffalo to protect him learning in Rochester? That's the theory? 

[LGR4GM]

And the other theory is that the best deal Botterill could get for ROR, was 1 legit cap dump, a sorta kinda dump but decent player, a lottery protected and then some first, and a prospect that after 2 months they don't even want? If that's the case Botterill should probably be fired because that is crazy. 

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And the other theory is that the best deal Botterill could get for ROR, was 1 legit cap dump, a sorta kinda dump but decent player, a lottery protected and then some first, and a prospect that after 2 months they don't even want? If that's the case Botterill should probably be fired because thats crazy. 

Given the self imposed time constraint for making a trade, we KNOW that the best deal that was available was Berglund, Sobotka, Thompson, & a protected 1st.

How do we know this?  Because that is the ####ing deal that was made.  Do you HONESTLY think Botterill was offered a better deal but turned it down?

But where was it said the Sabres "don't even want" Thompson?  It's been said that they don't want him in Ra-cha-cha.  We know this to be true.  How?  Because he's a healthy scratch in Buffalo & not in Ra-cha-cha.

If they truly didn't want him, they would cut him outright or loan him to an organization that would let him play.  They also gave him ice time just 3 games ago, so they haven't totally given up on him.

What was said, was that he almost definitely wasn't the prospect they "targeted" which though it can't be proven simply through a discussion on this board is almost definitely accurate because the Sabres would have targeted the Blues top prospects rather than a lesser one.  As he wasn't the guy they coveted and they find his being in the press box preferable to getting ice time over their other players & prospects, he likely is the "prospect" they'd try to include in any deals that they have to include in one.  (Probably right behind Bailey in that pecking order.)  Of course, they could be fine w/ keeping him provided they can get him to put 20 pounds on his frame & lower his center of gravity so he could play to his size.  And they may actually be better able to make that happen in Buffalo than in Ra-cha-cha as they have better facilities in Buffalo & presumably better trainers as well.

There obviously were non-O'Reilly on ice performance issues that went into this trade.  That we aren't privy to them & that many here don't believe those intangibles were worth punting him for what they got back, doesn't change the fact that Botterill wanted to get rid of ROR & he was willing to lose the trade on paper to make that happen.  

[dudacek]

A few points:

1) The Sabres may believe that between camp and the 40 games Tage played last year that he has shown he is NHL-ready, and the nine games he’s played this year haven’t changed their minds.

2) They may also believe that - short-term - he is better off practicing and learning at the NHL level than he is being sent down. Have we seen any signs his attitude has soured?

3) The lack of injuries and the effectiveness of the 12 forwards in front of him probably won’t continue long-term and his chance will likely come sooner, rather than later.

4) They may believe that seeing Thompson’s talent and Elie’s effort in practice every day is a factor in the improved effort of the guys in front of them.

5) And they may think that Thompson’s addition to an already crowded Rochester lineup may have potential to be counterproductive to what they are doing down there.

I think that Thompson’s lack of contribution up here is not something Botterill planned on and it has yet to reach the point where he feels the need to address it. A point will come when it is necessary though and for me it will come fairly soon.

Edited November 5, 2018 by dudacek

[mjd1001]

Maybe he has some kind of very minor, but lingering injury?  Something that you COULD play thought but it would have a small impact on the quality of play.  The fact he is not one of your top 6 forwards, you aren't going to have him play though it, but just give it time to 100% heal?  I don't know...you would think they would say he had an injury if that was the case...but I can't come up with any other reasons as to why they are handling him like they are.

 

Maybe its a numbers thing in Rochester? If they send him down...either he won't get quality minutes down there on a top line..., or he would push someone else off of a top line and they don't want that to happen either?

Edited November 5, 2018 by mjd1001

[bob_sauve28]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

 

Maybe its a numbers thing in Rochester? If they send him down...either he won't get quality minutes down there on a top line..., or he would push someone else off of a top line and they don't want that to happen either?

That's what I was thinking. Things going well down on the farm and they don't want to upset the apple cart 

[Hank]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What your friend means by half-vets is guys with 3 seasons plus of AHL/NHL experience but haven’t reached the AHL definition of veteran.  A Veteran in the AHL has over 260 games of pro experience at the start of the season.  AHL teams can dress 18 skaters per night with a max of 6 vets and one of the six must be under 320 games at the start of the season.  Teams can dress as many developmental players as they want (players with under 260 games of pro experience).

Developmental 1 - 260 games or less of pro experience - all 18 can be from this category, but 12 must be.

Developmental 2 - 261 to 320 pro game experience - teams can dress up to 6 players from this category.

Veterans - 320 or more of pro experience. Teams can dress a max of 5 players from this category.

As to TT. I figure Jbot maybe happy with the chemistry in Rochester, and isn’t ready to recall VO, Smith or Nylander. Therefore doesn’t want to send TT down.  To send him down without a call up of someone else, would likely mean putting him in a top 6 role there which would mean diminishing the role of an effective player in Roch.  This appears to be something Jbot doesn’t want to do right now with the Amerks playing so well.  

So I think TT is here until we recall someone from the Amerks or someone in the Amerks top 6 gets hurt. 

Is it possible that with the addition of Pilut and Olafson that the developmental 2 quota is full and TT doesn't fit because he also falls into that category?

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, Hank said:

Is it possible that with the addition of Pilut and Olafson that the developmental 2 quota is full and TT doesn't fit because he also falls into that category?

There are no roster limits in the AHL. Currently the Amerks are carrying 26 players but can only dress 18 skaters.  We can send TT down at any time since he is waiver exempt.  He is still a category 1 developmental player and there are no limits on how many catagory 1 players, but if TT plays someone else sits.

[Hank]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

There are no roster limits in the AHL. Currently the Amerks are carrying 26 players but can only dress 18 skaters.  We can send TT down at any time since he is waiver exempt.  He is still a category 1 developmental player and there are no limits on how many catagory 1 players, but if TT plays someone else sits.

Ahh, I didn't know which category he fell into, thanks. 

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, Hank said:

Is it possible that with the addition of Pilut and Olafson that the developmental 2 quota is full and TT doesn't fit because he also falls into that category?

Thompson barely has 100 pro games let alone over 200.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, Hank said:

Is it possible that with the addition of Pilut and Olafson that the developmental 2 quota is full and TT doesn't fit because he also falls into that category?

Pilut only has ~224 pro games headinginto this season; Olofsson ~220; & Thompson ~87 games.  That's not a factor in these decisions.