The New Lineup Thread

[GASabresIUFAN]

GA can certainly speak for himself, but I don't think his point was that GMTM's drafts didn't produce a good pipeline -- it was that the Sabres' pipeline stinks, including the parts of it produced by both GMTM and DR -- since there was a ton of turnover from a lousy roster, and none of it came from drafted players.

Thank you. It’s more then just drafted players. It’s the failure of fa college prospects, prospects acquired from other organizations etc.. it’s the failure to find any late rd gems and the whole crop of 2/3rd rd forwards from 2012 to 2014. Its the trading away asset after asset and getting overpaid injury prone players in return.

 

I mentioned Boston earlier. They have 5 rookies from their system make the team, including Bjork (5th in 2014), Grzelcyk (3rd in 2012), Vatrano (college FA), plus DeBrusk (1st in 2015) and McAvoy (1st in 2016). Now also add in Carlo (2nd in 2015) who made the club last season. Oh by the way, new Sabre Seth Griffith was a 5th rd pick for Boston in 2012. Why can a team that is consistently in the playoffs produce player after player from their system while a rebuilding team drafting higher and with more picks produce next to nothing?

 

Yes Liger is correct that some prospects take longer to develop, but the truth is TM and DR and their staffs did a horrible job building and maintaining our prospect pool that we had to look outside the organization to re-tool our roster. A couple of players ok, but 10? Admittedly a couple of our prospects could have filled roles, such as Ullmark and Guhle, and they are better off in the AHL this season. However, that fact doesn’t change the reality that outside of those 2 players our system (& maybe Nylander) (professional) is without much talent outside the NHL. We have to hope that 2016 and 2017 drafts start producing players for us or this rebuild will ultimately fail.

 

After watching last night’s game, if you could undue TM 2015 trades for Lehner (who again stopped nothing in the shoot out) and Kane/Bogo (11 shots into Price’s chest protector/out injured again) and kept those 2015 1st rd picks (picks who turned into Kyle Conner and Jack Roslovic) would you? I would, our organization would be better off.

Edited October 6, 2017 by GASabresFan

[LGR4GM]

Thank you. It’s more then just drafted players. It’s the failure of fa college prospects, prospects acquired from other organizations etc..

 

I mentioned Boston earlier. They have 5 rookies from their system make the team, including Bjork (5th in 2014), Grzelcyk (3rd in 2012), Vatrano (college FA), plus DeBrusk (1st in 2015) and McAvoy (1st in 2016). Now also add in Carlo (2nd in 2015) who made the club last season. Oh by the way, new Sabre Seth Griffith was a 5th rd pick for Boston in 2012. Why can a team that is consistently in the playoffs produce player after player from their system while a rebuilding team drafting higher and with more picks produce next to nothing?

 

Yes Liger is correct that some prospects take longer to develop, but the truth is TM and DR and their staffs did a horrible job building and maintaining our prospect pool that we had to look outside the organization to re-tool our roster. A couple of players ok, but 10? Admittedly a couple of our prospects could have filled roles, such as Ullmark and Guhle, and they are better off in the AHL this season. However, that fact doesn’t change the reality that outside of those 2 players our system (& maybe Nylander) (professional) is without much talent outside the NHL. We have to hope that 2016 and 2017 drafts start producing players for us or this rebuild will ultimately fail.

 

After watching last night’s game, if you could undue TM 2015 trades for Lehner (who again stopped nothing in the shoot out) and Kane/Bogo (11 shots into Price’s chest protector/out injured again) and kept those 2015 1st rd picks (picks who turned into Kyle Conner and Jack Roslovic) would you? I would, our organization would be better off.

Okay that was 1 pick and it turned into Roslovic who I would not have drafted. I have stated countless times I thought then and still think Ullmark is the future of the team and Brock Boeser was the perfect winger for Eichel. 

 

To the bolded, again. Outside of the 2012 guys (Jake McCabe is already here BTW), I don't expect players to be NHL ready yet. Mittelstadt is in college, Nylander got injured, our 2015 first round pick is in the NHL. You are talking about 2 1st round picks, sorry Nylander is injured, Eichel is in the NHL so I guess +1/2 to Boston? 

 

A college UFA, sorry we didn't get anyone other than Antipin, that's a wash.

 

a 2012 pick, see McCabe, wash

 

and a 2014 5th rounder, yup they got us there. +1 

 

So Boston is up on us by 1.5 draft picks... maybe if you count Nylander. 

 

 

TO the 2nd bolded" Asplund, Davidsson, Olofsson, Mittlestadt, Bailey, Fasching.  All possible NHL players.  You are taking a cross sectional study for something that is a longitudinal study. You always have to hope your drafts produce. It is why I am glad Darcy is gone and why I think GMtm  leaving was probably for the best. 

Edited October 6, 2017 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

You need 2 players per draft to be NHL guys. Darcy was bad at drafting as the years went by, except GT. Tim Murray might have been decent, we can only really count 2015/2016 as fully him. Botterill we can't really count 2017 because he didn't have everything in place yet. Early returns are that 2017 looks good with Mittelstadt, Davidsson is gonna take time. I think they made a mistake in the 3rd. The overager in the 4th is doing well. So we shall see. 

I keep going in circles here but, Drafts are not about what guy starts playing in the NHL first. They are about what guys make it at all. McAvoy had and has an NHL ready body, hence he made the jump. Nylander did not, hence it takes him time.  The Sabres going out and getting new players is good, because they paid next to nothing for them. Scandella and Pommers for Ennis and Foligno, Beauliue for a 3rd, Antipin for free. That is good team building. As long as Buffalo fixes some of its draft inconsistency and stops trading away 1st or 2nd round picks, the Sabres should be fine in the long run. They need to draft defenders and wingers when possible but if you look at their pool and the age of their vets, they are in good shape. Boston on the other hand is old, so they are being forced to call on younger guys to fill holes. The wheels are about to come off that bus. Bergeron and Krecji won't be good forever and there isn't a ton of depth behind them. Longitudinal v Cross Sectional. You want Longitudinal. 

[rakish]

You need 2 players per draft to be NHL guys.

 

3, why not win all the cups?

[GASabresIUFAN]

But you are proving my point. Boston’s competent management has done more with less. They’ve had fewer total picks, fewer 1st rd picks and 2nd rd picks and their picks in those rounds were later in the rounds, yet their farm is producing more players and sooner. Maybe this won’t always be the case. Maybe. Maybe the 2016 and 2017 drafts will create the necessary pipeline. Maybe.

 

DR and TM are gone because of incompetence. Not only in managing and developing the pipeline, but for poor contract management and roster construction.

 

Fyi: I also wouldn’t have drafted Roslovic, I would have taken a D, like Larsson who was drafted two picks later.

3, why not win all the cups?

I agree. I’d like to see 3 per draft make the NHL over time. When you have 10 or more picks, I’d like to see that number at 4 or more.

[WildCard]

What team consistently hits on 40% of their picks?

[LGR4GM]

But you are proving my point. Boston’s competent management has done more with less. They’ve had fewer total picks, fewer 1st rd picks and 2nd rd picks and their picks in those rounds were later in the rounds, yet their farm is producing more players and sooner. Maybe this won’t always be the case. Maybe. Maybe the 2016 and 2017 drafts will create the necessary pipeline. Maybe.

 

DR and TM are gone because of incompetence. Not only in managing and developing the pipeline, but for poor contract management and roster construction.

 

Fyi: I also wouldn’t have drafted Roslovic, I would have taken a D, like Larsson who was drafted two picks later.

 

I agree. I’d like to see 3 per draft make the NHL over time. When you have 10 or more picks, I’d like to see that number at 4 or more.

:w00t:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  Im sorry what?

 

2014, 2015, and 2016 Boston has had 11 1st/2nd round picks. 11. They have turned those picks into a ton of bad decisions.  Barzal or Zachary Senyshyn. Debrusk or Boeser? Donato or Dvorak? Trent Frederik or Rasmus Asplund.  

What team consistently hits on 40% of their picks?

none

[GASabresIUFAN]

You need 2 players per draft to be NHL guys. Darcy was bad at drafting as the years went by, except GT. Tim Murray might have been decent, we can only really count 2015/2016 as fully him. Botterill we can't really count 2017 because he didn't have everything in place yet. Early returns are that 2017 looks good with Mittelstadt, Davidsson is gonna take time. I think they made a mistake in the 3rd. The overager in the 4th is doing well. So we shall see. 

I keep going in circles here but, Drafts are not about what guy starts playing in the NHL first. They are about what guys make it at all. McAvoy had and has an NHL ready body, hence he made the jump. Nylander did not, hence it takes him time.  The Sabres going out and getting new players is good, because they paid next to nothing for them. Scandella and Pommers for Ennis and Foligno, Beauliue for a 3rd, Antipin for free. That is good team building. As long as Buffalo fixes some of its draft inconsistency and stops trading away 1st or 2nd round picks, the Sabres should be fine in the long run. They need to draft defenders and wingers when possible but if you look at their pool and the age of their vets, they are in good shape. Boston on the other hand is old, so they are being forced to call on younger guys to fill holes. The wheels are about to come off that bus. Bergeron and Krecji won't be good forever and there isn't a ton of depth behind them. Longitudinal v Cross Sectional. You want Longitudinal.

 

I agree with much of this, except the picking of Nylander. A good GM and his staff would have known he wasn’t near NHL ready and would have looked instead to D like McAvoy, Sergachev and Chychrun, who had NHL bodies already and at a position of need at that pick. This was the last straw for me on TM. It was proof to me that he had no idea how to build and develop a team. I agree TM should never had traded away all those picks. In his vain attempt to create a 3 year turn around, he actually pushed the timeline back to 7 or 8 years, wasting Jack and Sam’s ELC’s in the process. I also agree that Jbot did a great job of fixing the immediate holes in the roster for next to nothing (although TM gets credit for Antipin). My complaint is that a 40%+ roster overhaul should not have been necessary at this point in the rebuild and our pipeline, had it been properly managed, should have been able to furnish at least one player of the 10.

 

I also don’t give a new GM a pass on his first draft. TM and Jbot have extensive scouting and prospect development histories on their resumes. They should be able to make good drafting decisions day 1.

 

Where we do agree is that this rebuild is not DOA. I’m encouraged by 2016 and Mittelstud. The rest of 2017, except maybe the goalie, was poorly handled imho.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I did a quick look,

 

In 2005 48.3% of the picks played in the NHL, 28% played over 100 games

2006 42.3% with 24.3% playing over 100 games

2007 45.5, 27

2008 50.2, 28

2009 54.3, 28

 

I don’t think it is to much of a stretch to ask a good GM to draft us 4 players when you have 10+ picks and 4 or more are in the 1st 2 rounds. Here is Cullen research on the issue. http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131. GM’s hit on 30% + of their picks picked 1-70. Top 10 picks 80% play 100+ games. If the average GM hits on 28% of his picks, isn’t it is very reasonable to expect a good GM to top 30% consistently?

 

Here is Regier’s track record since 2005 with players over 100 games. He made 71 picks from 2005 to 2013. Of those picks only 21 (including Compher) will play 100 or more games. He went 9/11 on 1sts, but his only top line or pairing guys are Myers and Ristolainen, no forwards). He went 4/10 on seconds including Compher, which is average and a terrible 12% (6 for 50) on picks after the 2nd rd and none since 2009, unless Ullmark eventually gets to 100 games.

Edited October 6, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Randall Flagg]

Even with a supposedly bad first round two years ago, Boston is being fairly well-run IMO. 

They certainly destroyed our first round selection in 2016, from 8 positions behind, which will make up for 2015 since their guy will be on their top pair for 15 years.

[WildCard]

Even with a supposedly bad first round two years ago, Boston is being fairly well-run IMO. 

 

They certainly destroyed our first round selection in 2016, from 8 positions behind, which will make up for 2015 since their guy will be on their top pair for 15 years.

Let's not crown MaCavoy a god just yet

[Randall Flagg]

Let's not crown MaCavoy a god just yet

But he's pacing to obliterate the rookie scoring record with 162 points ;) 

 

Seriously tho if we can talk about Mittelstadt with the optimism I've seen on here, when he hasn't played above USNDT then I think that ratio allows me to say what I'm saying about McAvoy and any insistence otherwise is just homerism 

[WildCard]

But he's pacing to obliterate the rookie scoring record with 162 points ;)

 

Seriously tho if we can talk about Mittelstadt with the optimism I've seen on here, when he hasn't played above USNDT then I think that ratio allows me to say what I'm saying about McAvoy and any insistence otherwise is just homerism  

I mean the Mittelstadt thing is really just joking :lol:

 

Even the highest homer on here isn't going to say he's going to be a top line forward for 15 years

[LGR4GM]

I did a quick look,

 

In 2005 48.3% of the picks played in the NHL, 28% played over 100 games

2006 42.3% with 24.3% playing over 100 games

2007 45.5, 27

2008 50.2, 28

2009 54.3, 28

 

I don’t think it is to much of a stretch to ask a good GM to draft us 4 players when you have 10+ picks and 4 or more are in the 1st 2 rounds. Here is Cullen research on the issue. http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131. GM’s hit on 30% + of their picks picked 1-70. Top 10 picks 80% play 100+ games. If the average GM hits on 28% of his picks, isn’t it is very reasonable to expect a good GM to top 30% consistently?

 

Here is Regier’s track record since 2005 with players over 100 games. He made 71 picks from 2005 to 2013. Of those picks only 21 (including Compher) will play 100 or more games. He went 9/11 on 1sts, but his only top line or pairing guys are Myers and Ristolainen, no forwards). He went 4/10 on seconds including Compher, which is average and a terrible 12% (6 for 50) on picks after the 2nd rd and none since 2009, unless Ullmark eventually gets to 100 games.

100 games is literally the standard when judging drafts so you can toss out all the other crap. Regier is gone, why are we still discussing his drafts? Murray's drafts we don't know about yet. I don't know what you are arguing at this point.  

 

You used players from 4 drafts most of which were from 2016.  I expect 2016 year old players to still be developing. I responded to the Boston comment, I don't agree. 

I also showed how much Boston has drafted since 2014. 11 picks in the first 2 rounds of 3 drafts. Buffalo had 8. We traded away 2 of those players, so that is 6. Jack and Sam are here. Guhle is coming, Nylander is still a work in progress. Asplund looks good. So thats what? 5 of the 6 looking like NHL players with Karabacek bringing up the rear.  So yea, I don't agree and I am not panicking.  You need 2 players per draft, every 3rd draft needs a 3rd player.  We need to be better but starting in 2014 we have been. Botterill didn't dismantle the scouting staff. Pegula dumped a ton of money into it. So yea

We had video scouting until what? 2012? So that has an impact too. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I never used 2016. I used 2012 to 2015. I started in 2012 because to me that is when Regier started the process of rebuilding by acquiring an extra 1st and drafting 2 centers in the 1st to fill the organizations void at center at that time. I also used 2012 because 50% of the drafted prospects in the AHL are Regier picks (Baptiste, Ullmark, Bailey and Malone), plus we still have Florentino (ECHL) as well. In fact most of the “near ready” players in this organization are Regier picks. Facshing, although a TM acquisition is also a 2013 pick. We are also talking about Regier still because you say the average development time is 3-5 years. 2012 is the out edge of that period.

 

Overall we have only 12 drafted players in the AHL and ECHL, 5 are Regier picks. There are 7 TM picks, but 3 are in the ECHL and imho are unlikely to ever make the NHL.

 

The math says we should expect 30% of our picks to make it. Right now TM is only batting 500 on the 1st and 2nd rd (using 2014 and 2015). He has 3 failed (failing?) 2nd rd picks from 2014. Anyone could have selected 2nd overall and chosen Jack or Sam. Only the Guhle selection stands out. So going 3 of 6 in 2014 and 2015 isn’t any great accomplishment. In fact succeeding on only 1 of 4 2nd rd picks is significantly below average. As I said before 2016 looks better, but until Nylander and Asplund show they can play in NA the jury will remain out. In addition we have nothing so far from beyond the 2nd rd from any TM draft. Signed 3rd rd picks Martin and Johansson are in the ECHL, 5th rd pick Stephens is also in the ECHL. Everyone else is unsigned and many like Estephan won’t be signed.

[LGR4GM]

I'm not explaining this again. I'm done. We aren't gonna agree and we're talking in circles.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm not explaining this again. I'm done. We aren't gonna agree and we're talking in circles.

NP, but I just noticed you avoided the Pastrnak Reinhart comparison from 2014.

[LGR4GM]

NP, but I just noticed you avoided the Pastrnak Reinhart comparison from 2014.

Pastrnak has been better. Reinhart has just started playing his natural position, should be interesting.

 

I just mean we're both entrenched in our views of the 2014-2016 draft so I didn't want to keep talking in circles. I will concede that you could be right. It's a reason why Murray being gone I'm fine with.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 down 80 to go. One mediocre game. I terrible game. Search parties have been sent to find ROR and KO. No confirmed sightings yet.

 

Anyway, is it already time to try new lines? I think so.

 

Girgensons Jack Pommers

Kane ROR Okposo

Larsson Reinhart Griffith

Pouliot Josefsob Moulson

[Wyldnwoody44]

Meh still not excited about reinhardted to be with sub-par offensive linemates, a giant waste of his talents. ROR with eichel on line 1 with pommers, Samson centering line 2 with Kane and okposo. Then make do with a serviceable 3rd line of leftovers and then a 4th line of pluggers to help drive possession and let the other guys rest a bit. Maybe pot a few points.

[North Buffalo]

2 down 80 to go. One mediocre game. I terrible game. Search parties have been sent to find ROR and KO. No confirmed sightings yet.

Anyway, is it already time to try new lines? I think so.

Girgensons Jack Pommers

Kane ROR Okposo

Larsson Reinhart Griffith

Pouliot Josefsob Moulson

Holy crap do we lack wingers who can put the puck in the net... Kane is the only one who can scare you..,

[sabresparaavida]

Holy crap do we lack wingers who can put the puck in the net... Kane is the only one who can scare you..,

Pommers got a couple goals?

[North Buffalo]

ok but these line combos dont do much, Sam helps Jack score, Ok who know, Girgenson is a mucker and that is pretty much it... Nylander needs to step up, and Middlestadt needs to quit college... another long season...

[JohnnyK]

2 down 80 to go. One mediocre game. I terrible game. Search parties have been sent to find ROR and KO. No confirmed sightings yet.

 

Anyway, is it already time to try new lines? I think so.

 

Girgensons Jack Pommers

Kane ROR Okposo

Larsson Reinhart Griffith

Pouliot Josefsob Moulson

IMO Larsson is lost in the new system, he seems to just skate round doing nothing at all, I like Nolan as a 4th line winger who can be on the PK.  The 4th line did well with him on it.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Now we know why DD had Sam on the wing. We had no one else.

I said all last season that the team failed because of roster construction. Here we are after a 10 player turnover and a new system and we still have no scoring wingers. Even less with Sam at center, an experiment that all of us wanted to see.

This is going to be years recovering from DR and TM misnanagement. I'm also dead set against any quick fixes.

Edited October 9, 2017 by GASabresFan