The ".500" record and playoff race thread

[Eleven]

TOR is a mirage.

 

I think you're right.

[woods-racer]

TOR is a mirage.

 

Lets switch coaches, I want their oasis.

[pi2000]

Lets switch coaches, I want their oasis.

They've been incredibly fortunate on the injury front this season. I think they plummet down the standings from here on out. The young guns will slowly wilt as the season wears on.

[woods-racer]

They've been incredibly fortunate on the injury front this season. I think they plummet down the standings from here on out. The young guns will slowly wilt as the season wears on.

 

Devils advocate.

 

Then ours will play better because they had a *rest*?

 

I don't believe Toronto will plummet, I expect them to be in the play off hunt until the final game of the season. They have been all season and have not shown any reason why they can't continue to win enough to be there at the end.

[Samson's Flow]

Every team around the league has its inconsistencies, failings, and bad nights. The bad teams have more, the good teams fewer.

 

Our main problem is we're currently 6-13 versus the Atlantic this season (6-10-3). Those 3 OT/SO losses don't help at all because the other team gained points on us in those games. That's why we're not contending for the playoffs. Even a 9-10 record would have us right in the thick of things (probably where we all hoped to be at the start of the season... not necessarily make the playoffs, but keeping it really close).

 

But this must be next season's goal: win division games. It's the next stepping stone.

(get top-end talent, win home games, win division games, win a few road games, win playoff games, win series, win trophies)

Good point and perspective.

 

On your last sentence, I certainly hope we don't have to wait a full year to accomplish each one of those. I can't wait until 2021 to win a trophy...

[Taro T]

They've been incredibly fortunate on the injury front this season. I think they plummet down the standings from here on out. The young guns will slowly wilt as the season wears on.

Well we're right at midnight (50 games) for their tradition Cinderella ball night meltdown. (No data yet on whether Babcock can roll the clock back a couple of hours for them. Until he successfully does it, my money would be on past history repeating itself, even w/ all new characters in the various roles. It's still the same blue & white pumpkin until proven otherwise. ;))

[dudacek]

For example trade Lehner, Kane, Gionta, Kulikov and Franson. Call up Guhle, Bailey, Ullmark and Baptiste to get a legit look see and help them prep for next year. Try to find a couple decent D under contract. I default to the Montour/Stoner idea for Kane, but I'd be happy with any similar move. Since this year is already done, lets see if we can raise some hope for next year.

Patience young Padwan. Lehner and Kane are part of Murray's core. They aren't being traded for futures and teams aren't trading good players for them at the deadline. The other three could and likely will be moved, but it will make the team worse, not better. Thinking Baptiste and Bailey and Ullmark will be better than Kane and Gionta and Lehner is classic grass-is-greener stuff. And you can't call up Guhle unless it is an emergency. I want to see calculated moves that fit the plan, not chicken little house is on fire housecleaning.

 

Our main problem is we're currently 6-13 versus the Atlantic this season (6-10-3). Those 3 OT/SO losses don't help at all because the other team gained points on us in those games. That's why we're not contending for the playoffs. Even a 9-10 record would have us right in the thick of things (probably where we all hoped to be at the start of the season... not necessarily make the playoffs, but keeping it really close)

 

Good perceptive post - a very important underplayed reality. The force is strong in this one.

 

They've been incredibly fortunate on the injury front this season. I think they plummet down the standings from here on out. The young guns will slowly wilt as the season wears on.

I want to believe. Edited February 2, 2017 by dudacek

[Jsixspd]

They did play above .500 in January - barely -  7 wins, 5 reg losses,  1 OT loss for 7-6.    If we can box the ears of the Rangers tonight (we did well against them only a month ago) we'd be 8-6 for 2017.   However, a loss, and we'll be getting back toward the levels of ineptitude demonstrated in the fall, and back to a full 10 games below .500 for the season.     

[GASabresIUFAN]

Patience young Padwan. Lehner and Kane are part of Murray's core. They aren't being traded for futures and teams aren't trading good players for them at the deadline. The other three could and likely will be moved, but it will make the team worse, not better. Thinking Baptiste and Bailey and Ullmark will be better than Kane and Gionta and Lehner is classic grass-is-greener stuff. And you can't call up Guhle unless it is an emergency. I want to see calculated moves that fit the plan, not chicken little house is on fire housecleaning.

 

A couple of things.

1) A couple of trades to improve our D depth will probably help this team long-term and considering that we aren't making the playoffs this season, is it really so awful if the trades make us worse, thus likely resulting in a higher 1st rd draft pick?

2) If Lehner and Kane are part of the long-term core, we need a new GM and a new strategy for the rebuild.  Lehner has been outplayed by two journeymen backups during his time here.  He is awful on odd man rushes and breakaways and lets in to many soft goals.  Kane admittedly has played his best hockey in years of late.  However, he has never played to the cost of his contract (guys making over $5 million should score at least 30 goals or 50+ pts.), has never stayed healthy and will likely want a big bump in salary when his deal expires after next season.  Also Kane was acquired at the deadline, there is no reason he can't be traded at it.  I stand by my idea of Kane for Stoner and Montour.  

3) Guhle is under contract.  He can be summoned at any time and if he plays more then 9 games we burn the first year of his contract.  With 32 games left in this season, Bogo down again with an injury, I think we would be wise to call him up and give him a 32 game tryout.  

4) Again we aren't making the playoffs and either are the Amerks.  We might as well let Bailey and Baptiste play here and learn to play in the NHL where both will likely be next season.

 

This isn't chicken little, but a rational response to a flawed and injury riddled team that isn't making the playoffs and has some vets with expiring contracts who shouldn't be allowed to leave town without helping to increase the depth in the Sabres organization.  It's really that simple.  

 

One other note: The real core of this team is Eichel, Reinhart, McCabe, Ristolainen and ROR.  Okposo because of the age is a current core guy but not a permanent one.  Kind of like Patrick Sharp in Chicago.  Lehner was acquired to be part of the core, but he has played his way out of that role long term.   Chicago won a Cup with a strong D and Niemi in net.  If GMTM gets the D group right, I don't think Lehner is necessary.

Edited February 3, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[Samson's Flow]

A couple of things.

1) A couple of trades to improve our D depth will probably help this team long-term and considering that we aren't making the playoffs this season, is it really so awful if the trades make us worse, thus likely resulting in a higher 1st rd draft pick?

2) If Lehner and Kane are part of the long-term core, we need a new GM and a new strategy for the rebuild.  Lehner has been outplayed by two journeymen backups during his time here.  He is awful on odd man rushes and breakaways and lets in to many soft goals.  Kane admittedly has played his best hockey in years of late.  However, he has never played to the cost of his contract (guys making over $5 million should score at least 30 goals or 50+ pts.), has never stayed healthy and will likely want a big bump in salary when his deal expires after next season.  Also Kane was acquired at the deadline, there is no reason he can't be traded at it.  I stand by my idea of Kane for Stoner and Montour.  

3) Guhle is under contract.  He can be summoned at any time and if he plays more then 9 games we burn the first year of his contract.  With 32 games left in this season, Bogo down again with an injury, I think we would be wise to call him up and give him a 32 game tryout.  

4) Again we aren't making the playoffs and either are the Amerks.  We might as well let Bailey and Baptiste play here and learn to play in the NHL where both will likely be next season.

 

This isn't chicken little, but a rational response to a flawed and injury riddled team that isn't making the playoffs and has some vets with expiring contracts who shouldn't be allowed to leave town without helping to increase the depth in the Sabres organization.  It's really that simple.  

 

One other note: The real core of this team is Eichel, Reinhart, McCabe, Ristolainen and ROR.  Okposo because of the age is a current core guy but not a permanent one.  Kind of like Patrick Sharp in Chicago.  Lehner was acquired to be part of the core, but he has played his way out of that role long term.   Chicago won a Cup with a strong D and Niemi in net.  If GMTM gets the D group right, I don't think Lehner is necessary.

I don't have any issue with the intent of your post, but just a clarification for context...

 

Players on $5MM + contracts should not have the expectation of 30 goals, in fact last year here is the list of 30 goal scorers:

 

Ovechkin 50, P Kane 46, J Benn 41, V Tarasenko 40, Pavelski 38, Marchand 37, Crosby 36, Stamkos 36, Perry 34, Spezza 33, Tavares 33, Seguin 33, Forsberg 33, Bergeron 32, Simmonds 32, Neal 31, Saad 31, Toffoli 31, Eriksson 30, Pacioretty 30, Duchene 30, Palmieri 30, Henrique 30, Galchenyuk 30, Jenner 30, Kucherov 30, Gaudreau 30, Panarin 30.

 

That's 28 total, or less than 1 per team, and most of them barely made the 30 goal mark. Furthermore, of these guys nearly half of them were below 60 points total. Basically the contracts are getting larger and larger and the scoring is more difficult. For reference, the top Sabres goal scorer last year was Jack Eichel with 24 and Samson Reinhart with 23. I don't know why you would hold Kane to a 30 goal standard when our best players are mid 20's.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I said 30 goals or 50 pts. Regardless, the average salary of the 28 players you mentioned is 5.79. We are paying Kane $5.25 per season on a contract awarded to him after he scored 30 goals for the Jets. Kane is 25 years old. Looking at the 14 guys on your list 23-27, the average salary is 5.13. I'd say my expectation for Kane given his age, skill and contract is right on target.

 

Furthermore you can't compare a 7 year vet to two rookies. However, I fully expect Sam and Jack to get to 30 goals plus once they physically mature if not sooner.

 

Also I have a rule of thumb that forwards should earn about 100k per point. If you review all the Sabres contracts, except ELC's, you'll see that we hold pretty hard to this rule.

Edited February 4, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[inkman]

Guhle cannot be summoned at anytime

[woods-racer]

But ghouls can, right?

Edited February 3, 2017 by Woods-Racer

[spndnchz]

I don't see how Murray isn't a seller. He can talk all the "poker hand" he wants. He's selling.

[pi2000]

This is where I'm at right now...

 

https://www.talk.hockey/tank-tracker/

 

https://talk.hockey/nhl-lottery-simulator-stored-results/?sim_id=4CF5D007-D129-4834-583D-C4C762F51EE1

Edited February 3, 2017 by pi2000

[woods-racer]

This is where I'm at right now...

 

https://www.talk.hockey/tank-tracker/

 

https://talk.hockey/nhl-lottery-simulator-stored-results/?sim_id=4CF5D007-D129-4834-583D-C4C762F51EE1

 

 

oof....

 

didn't see that comin...

[dudacek]

A couple of things...

 

This isn't chicken little, but a rational response to a flawed and injury riddled team that isn't making the playoffs and has some vets with expiring contracts who shouldn't be allowed to leave town without helping to increase the depth in the Sabres organization.  It's really that simple.

I agree we should sell off expiring contracts.

I said Murray is not going to sell off Kane and Lehner because HE believes they are part of his core.

 

In the case of Kane, I happen to agree with Murray. Kane is worth far more to this team than a B prospect and a cap dump.

 

Lehner so far has been an average starter on a reasonable contract, not the second coming of Randy Ireland some people portray him to be. What are you trading him for? Is some team going to give us something useful for him?

 

It's fine and dandy to sell. I'll sell anyone. But only if what we're buying makes us better.

We need better defenceman who can play now and three years from now.

Trading UFAs who aren't going to be back for futures is one thing, but I'm not interested in trading useful young players for more lottery tickets.

Edited February 3, 2017 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

Given that we already have an extra 2nd and 3rd this year, I'm interested in adding some 2018 picks for next year's deadline, when we're (hopefully) buyers.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Guhle cannot be summoned at anytime

Based on what? He is under contract and therefore can be recalled.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I agree we should sell off expiring contracts.

I said Murray is not going to sell off Kane and Lehner because HE believes they are part of his core.

In the case of Kane, I happen to agree with Murray. Kane is worth far more to this team than a B prospect and a cap dump.

Lehner so far has been an average starter on a reasonable contract, not the second coming of Randy Ireland some people portray him to be. What are you trading him for? Is some team going to give us something useful for him?

It's fine and dandy to sell. I'll sell anyone. But only if what we're buying makes us better.

We need better defenceman who can play now and three years from now.

Trading UFAs who aren't going to be back for futures is one thing, but I'm not interested in trading useful young players for more lottery tickets.

As to Kane, trading him to Ana for example for Stoner and Montour would be a huge upgrade for the D of this team for this season and the future. I think much of Kane's production can be replaced with guys like Bailey, Baptiste and by Nylander in 2018. I also believe that Nylander was drafted to ultimately replace Kane.

[TrueBlueGED]

Based on what? He is under contract and therefore can be recalled.

This is not accurate. He is only eligible for recall on an emergency basis, which requires a certain number of injuries at his position.

[TXSabresFan]

At this point I don't think it's realistic to expect this team to earn a playoff spot or even come within a few points of a playoff spot. That said, I don't think it hurts at all to sell off some guys that can provide value to other teams. Get some possible returns for a few guys and set yourself up for the future by trading off some bad contracts and guys that realistically won't be a part of the future. 

[dudacek]

As to Kane, trading him to Ana for example for Stoner and Montour would be a huge upgrade for the D of this team for this season and the future. I think much of Kane's production can be replaced with guys like Bailey, Baptiste and by Nylander in 2018. I also believe that Nylander was drafted to ultimately replace Kane.

 

Do you really think this?

 

I think Montour is an interesting prospect, an undersized 22-year-old puckmover who has played five NHL games and has yet to score an NHL point. Clayton Stoner is a salary albatross and may be a slight upgrade on Justin Falk.

Justin Bailey and Nicholas Baptiste are interesting 21-year-olds who have combined for three goals in 30 NHL games. Evander Kane is 25 and has 14 goals in 39 games.

 

In no world do these moves make us a better team this season.

Edited February 3, 2017 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

Do you really think this?

 

I think Montour is an interesting prospect, an undersized 22-year-old puckmover who has played five NHL games and has yet to score an NHL point. Clayton Stoner is a salary albatross and may be a slight upgrade on Justin Falk.

Justin Bailey and Nicholas Baptiste are interesting 21-year-olds who have combined for three goals in 30 NHL games. Evander Kane is 25 and has 14 goals in 39 games.

 

In no world do these moves make us a better team this season.

6' 200 lbs isn't exactly undersized. He has only played 5 games because Ana can't afford to bring him up and play him. Both he and Stoner would be a significant upgrades on what we are fielding right now on defense thereby improving the team now. Stoner has only one year left on his deal at 3.25. I think he is a faster, cheaper version of Gorges. I honestly believe fixing our D group, would allow us to clear our zone faster leading to better goal production on offense and less goals allowed.

 

As to Kane's production, he has certainly played well of late, but to say we can't replace his production is wrong. I think Bailey and or Baptiste, given a full time top 2 line role, could produce well for the rest of the season and they have the size speed and skill to be a 20 goal scorers in the NHL. Kane has 1 30 goal season and 1 20 goal season in 7+ NHL seasons. His recent performance is great, but odds are he'll return to his previous form.

 

However, Let's say that you are right and all the moves I suggest don't make the entire team better immediately, is that really so awful if it leads to a better 1st rd pick, more NHL experience for our prospects, and a better D group long-term?

Edited February 4, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

6' 200 lbs isn't exactly undersized. He has only played 5 games because Ana can't afford to bring him up and play him. Both he and Stoner would be a significant upgrades on what we are fielding right now on defense thereby improving the team now. Stoner has only one year left on his deal at 3.25. I think he is a faster, cheaper version of Gorges. I honestly believe fixing our D group, would allow us to clear our zone faster leading to better goal production on offense and less goals allowed.

 

As to Kane's production, he has certainly played well of late, but to say we can't replace his production is wrong. I think Bailey and or Baptiste, given a full time top 2 line role, could produce well for the rest of the season and they have the size speed and skill to be a 20 goal scorers in the NHL. Kane has 1 30 goal season and 1 20 goal season in 7+ NHL seasons. His recent performance is great, but odds are he'll return to his previous form.

 

However, Let's say that you are right and all the moves I suggest don't make the entire team better immediately, is that really so awful if it leads to a better 1st rd pick, more NHL experience for our prospects, and a better D group long-term?

 

I don't understand this logic at all.  There isn't a single prospect in the system that has shown enough ability to secure a roster spot on a bad team, and you think that one of these guys can replace probably our best performing forward over the last 6 weeks. If we move Kane, be prepared to see an overwhelmed 3rd AND  4th lines for 20 minutes every game.  It will be ugly. Er.  Uglier.  Alot uglier.