State of the Sabres 1/3 of the season in the books

[GASabresIUFAN]

Raw numbers

 

The GOOD:

We are 4-2-1 since Jack's return

We are 4th in PP at 22.6%

We are 6th at faceoffs at 51.6%

We have scored 23 of the 62 goals in the last 7 games (since Jack's return) or 3.29 goals per game.  (We scored 1.86 in the first 21 games).

Okposo and Risto have 11 pts in their last 10 games.

Jack has 8 pts in 7 games since his return.

The Sabres have only given up 75 goals for 9th in the NHL.

 

 

The BAD:

The Sabres have 28 pts (11-11-6 w 10 ROW)  

They sit 15th in the East, 1 pt ahead of the NYI (who deserve to be where they are for not re-signing Okposo) and 1 ROW behind the hated Leafs

They sit  26th in the the NHL.

Lehner has only 2 wins in his last 11 decisions including last night.

 

 

The UGLY:

We have scored only 62 goals for 29th in the NHL (2 ahead of Colorado and 44 behind 1st place Vesey's NYR)

Our PK, which started not, is now 29th at  only 74.2%

[woods-racer]

I give full credit for the ugly to the coaching staff. They played that defense first hockey for to long and we not only didn't score we never had much of a chance to win.

[dudacek]

You wouldn't know it from the fan base, but the Sabres are within the range of their own expectations - barely.

* They thought the were a playoff bubble team before injuries hit six of their top nine players.

* Their goal was to remain within striking distance until they got healthy.

They are six points out. I guess that qualifies.

 

But now is crunch time, they need a hot streak.

They need to stretch this 4-2-1 into 12-6-3 to correct their start.

Otherwise the gap will be too much to overcome.

Edited December 14, 2016 by dudacek

[Mig22]

But now is crunch time, they need a hot streak.

They need to stretch this 4-2-1 into 12-6-3 to correct their start.

Otherwise the gap will be too much to overcome.

There is no reason that this can't happen.  The team has earned that 4-2-1 with a lineup getting steadily healthier and integrating players as they return.  Jack is not 100% but his skating improves a bit each game.  I have optimism.  Some.

[JohnRobertEichel]

The way the East is shaping up, the Sabres will be chasing the third division spot (currently occupied by Boston, who have played two more games than Buffalo) instead of the two wildcards.

 

The next 6 games are against fellow crappy Eastern Conference teams (all in the 27-30 point range), followed by two very critical games against the mediocre Bruins to end the calendar year. The Sabres could conceivably be occupying a playoff spot by January 1.

 

Everyone but Ennis and Bogosian are back, so no more excuses!

[Huckleberry]

The way the East is shaping up, the Sabres will be chasing the third division spot (currently occupied by Boston, who have played two more games than Buffalo) instead of the two wildcards.

 

The next 6 games are against fellow crappy Eastern Conference teams (all in the 27-30 point range), followed by two very critical games against the mediocre Bruins to end the calendar year. The Sabres could conceivably be occupying a playoff spot by January 1.

 

Everyone but Ennis and Bogosian are back, so no more excuses!

 

yeah Bruins and Sens should be our goal for now, unless the metro implodes a bit.

[French Collection]

Putting a winning streak together is critical. It's tough to make up ground with " loser" points like the Leafs got last night.

With the lineup healthier and a nice comeback last night they can build up some momentum and put some W's on the board.

Good leadership will keep them focused on one game at a time and not on the numbers we think they need.

 

Go Sabres!

Edited December 14, 2016 by French Collection

[North Buffalo]

We will see but if Sabres can find another couple pieces next year, i feel a run coming. Much better hockey now that they are healthier.

[pi2000]

Don't overlook the fact they've had the 3rd most difficult schedule in the league to this point of the season.    

[Marions Piazza]

I have to agree that a nice streak is coming, this should be fun to watch through the new year.

 

I crunched some numbers this morning, Eichel is 1/10th of a point per game behind McDavid so far.  I realize its a smaller sample size, but, Eichel still isn't 100% after that ankle.  If Eichel played the same games as McDavid to this point, his points per game would have him at only 3 points behind McDavid, good enough for 2nd in the league.  I am tired of reading how Eichel 'isn't on the same planet as McDavid', he's a frankin superstar and I cant wait until his ankle is truly 100%. 

 

Despite the record, we are actually getting decent goal tending and as long as we can start scoring more goals more consistently, we could push for a wild card slot.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I have to agree that a nice streak is coming, this should be fun to watch through the new year.

 

I crunched some numbers this morning, Eichel is 1/10th of a point per game behind McDavid so far.  I realize its a smaller sample size, but, Eichel still isn't 100% after that ankle.  If Eichel played the same games as McDavid to this point, his points per game would have him at only 3 points behind McDavid, good enough for 2nd in the league.  I am tired of reading how Eichel 'isn't on the same planet as McDavid', he's a frankin superstar and I cant wait until his ankle is truly 100%. 

 

Despite the record, we are actually getting decent goal tending and as long as we can start scoring more goals more consistently, we could push for a wild card slot.

 

Nice first post.

 

Welcome!!

 

At first glance I was going to order a pizza.

 

Parli Italiano?

[GASabresIUFAN]

You wouldn't know it from the fan base, but the Sabres are within the range of their own expectations - barely.

* They thought the were a playoff bubble team before injuries hit six of their top nine players.

* Their goal was to remain within striking distance until they got healthy.

They are six points out. I guess that qualifies.

 

But now is crunch time, they need a hot streak.

They need to stretch this 4-2-1 into 12-6-3 to correct their start.

Otherwise the gap will be too much to overcome.

 

I think the gap may actually be to much to overcome.  We are 11-11-6 for 28 pts in 28 games.  To earn a playoff spot we likely need to earn at least 95 pts.  That's 67 pts in the next 54 games.  Seems not unreasonable at first glance.  However, to earn the 67 pts we need to go 30-17-7 the rest of the season.  Last year "when we turned it around" in the second half we went 20-14-7.  Essentially we need to play 4-2-1 hockey each 7 games for the remainder of the season to have a chance.  

 

The way the East is shaping up, the Sabres will be chasing the third division spot (currently occupied by Boston, who have played two more games than Buffalo) instead of the two wildcards.

 

The next 6 games are against fellow crappy Eastern Conference teams (all in the 27-30 point range), followed by two very critical games against the mediocre Bruins to end the calendar year. The Sabres could conceivably be occupying a playoff spot by January 1.

 

Everyone but Ennis and Bogosian are back, so no more excuses!

 

The injuries are not an excuse.  GMTM is responsible for making sure that the team has depth to overcome injuries.  While losing Jack was a huge issue, but there was still enough O talent on this team to score more then 1.5 goal per games in his absense.  Also loses on the back end were somewhat predictable and GMTM did nothing to insure we had a capable 7th or 8th D ready to go.  Instead he signed a strong group of AHL veterans, but no legit NHLers and hoped Nelson, with 7 games of pro experience, was enough.  This issue was discussed by us and media at length before the season started and the worst predictions came true.  Regier made the same mistake the year we should have won the Cup when his D depth was Paetsch, Jillson and Janik.

 

Here is GMTM's acquired depth late last season and this off-season. NHL experience in () 

Burgdorfer (0 NHL games)

Schneider (2 NHL games)

Grant (40 NHL games - Zero goals)

Fedun (17 NHL games)

Falk (171 NHL games - most of which were 5 years ago)

 

I understand why GMTM didn't add more to the forwards.  He rightfully expected at least one or two of Carrier, Bailey, Baptiste and Fasching to be ready to step in, but none have truly proven ready to be NHL contributors.  However the D was another issue and that was never properly addressed.

Edited December 14, 2016 by GASabresIUFAN

[pi2000]

I think the gap may actually be to much to overcome.  We are 11-11-6 for 28 pts in 28 games.  To earn a playoff spot we likely need to earn 95 pts.  That's 67 pts in the next 54 games.  Seems not unreasonable at first glance.  However, to earn the 67 pts we need to go 30-17-7 the rest of the season.  Last year "when we turned it around" in the second half we went 20-14-7.  Essentially we need to play 4-2-1 hockey each 7 games for the remainder of the season to have a chance.

 

If they can win 6 of the next 8 that puts them at 17-13-6, 40 points with 46 games remaining.      To get 55 points over the remaining 46 games they would need to go somewhere around 25-16-5 in the new year, which is a slightly better pace than they finished last season.... certainly attainable IMO, but they need to go on a streak here against weaker opponents to give themselves any shot at it.  

 

To give some perspective, last years on Dec 31st, PIT had a record of 18-15-4 for a total of 40 points through their first 37 games.

Edited December 14, 2016 by pi2000

[Randall Flagg]

I have to agree that a nice streak is coming, this should be fun to watch through the new year.

 

I crunched some numbers this morning, Eichel is 1/10th of a point per game behind McDavid so far.  I realize its a smaller sample size, but, Eichel still isn't 100% after that ankle.  If Eichel played the same games as McDavid to this point, his points per game would have him at only 3 points behind McDavid, good enough for 2nd in the league.  I am tired of reading how Eichel 'isn't on the same planet as McDavid', he's a frankin superstar and I cant wait until his ankle is truly 100%. 

 

Despite the record, we are actually getting decent goal tending and as long as we can start scoring more goals more consistently, we could push for a wild card slot.

Agreed about Jack. His skillset gives him best-in-the-world potential, even if his chance of being that is small. It's nonzero. He's already a force and if he can put everything together and stay healthy there's really no limit.

[WildCard]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Buffalo.html

 

Apparently we have a 16.4% chance at making the playoffs according to this. Our schedule is much, much easier this month, we're getting healthier, and our division is . We have a legitimate shot I think

[Randall Flagg]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Buffalo.html

 

Apparently we have a 16.4% chance at making the playoffs according to this. Our schedule is much, much easier this month, we're getting healthier, and our division is ######. We have a legitimate shot I think

If Pittsburgh beats Boston in regulation tonight, winning our games-in-hand would tie us with Boston

[WildCard]

If Pittsburgh beats Boston in regulation tonight, winning our games-in-hand would tie us with Boston

Looking good so far

[JJFIVEOH]

The Sabres control their own destiny. 

[WildCard]

Well,

[Doohickie]

If Pittsburgh beats Boston in regulation tonight, winning our games-in-hand would tie us with Boston

Looking good so far

Well, ######

 

Still looking good.  Boston only got one point.  If we win the games in hand *and* beat Boston in the home-and-home series at the end of the month, we'll pass them.  (Not sure when we catch up to them in number of games played though.)

[Marions Piazza]

Nice first post.

 

Welcome!!

 

At first glance I was going to order a pizza.

 

Parli Italiano?

Thanks, I appreciate it.  I live in Dayton OH, I used the name of the best pizza joint in the area.  I was having it for lunch when I signed up.

 

I do speak a little German though

Agreed about Jack. His skillset gives him best-in-the-world potential, even if his chance of being that is small. It's nonzero. He's already a force and if he can put everything together and stay healthy there's really no limit.

Right on.  I had it out with an Oilers fans the other day, pretty typical, he brought up the rookie seasons, blah blah.  I said that's fine, but, this year is different and Jack is truly showing his skill and stardom, he's not even 100% and he's on pace for what would have been an almost 100 pt season if he hadn't hurt his ankle.