Leafs rebuild vs Sabres rebuild: Which will be better sooner and which will be better longer?

[GASabresIUFAN]

In the Preview thread we have begun discussing TSN's and the Canadian media's infatuation with the Toronto rebuild and Austin Matthews.

 

I think we are miles ahead in our rebuild, but there are so many ties between the two clubs that this debate will go on for years to come. It starts with 90 miles, a border and shared culture. Like many from Buffalo and vice versa I am part Canadian and in fact spent my summers growing up in Ontario.

 

It also stems from Toronto's view of themselves as the center of the hockey universe, but with a team that has been an abject failure since 1967. Buffalo, while not great has generally had the better teams and has won more, which drives the Torontoians nuts. They Leafs fans annually invade Buffalo's arena in search of cheap seat to watch their beloved Leafs, but have left more often then not in the last decade with another L.

 

So now both teams are rebuilding and the ties are even stronger. Both teams are lead by accomplished coaches. Toronto's used the Sabres to get an even bigger contract from the Leafs. Both teams are led on the ice by the two biggest American prospects, possibly ever, in Eichel and Matthews. Both teams have a young Nylander as an important piece of their future. Both have centerpiece D drafted in the top 8 in recent drafts (Rielly vs Risto) now with similar long-term contracts. Both also have gifted Canadian top 5 prospects in Marner and Reinhart. So who is better? Who is better now? Who will be better long-term?

[Claude_Verret]

Perhaps I'm biased, but gun to my head I think that I prefer  Eichel-Reindheardt- A. Nylander to Matthews-Marner-W. Nylander.

[LGR4GM]

Good thread. 

 

Who is better now, Buffalo. Eichel and Reinhart have a full season under their belts and they worked hard this summer by all accounts. I think adding Okposo and Kulikov helped to shore up some of Buffalo's weaknesses. ROR is better than Kadri by a mile. I think Risto and Rielly are similar but I think Risto hasn't reached his peak at all. Johan Larsson is a dark horse who if he can play 82 games like he did last 41, look out. He's like ROR junior with less offense but a great shutdown center. I think we are simply a more mature and ready team this year than Toronto. Oh and Lehner is better then Andersen. 

 

We will be slightly better long term than Toronto because I think we will draft better and find quality players better. Reinhart is severely underrated around the league and will continue to be so. I think Eichel can be as good as he feels like. Matthews and Marner are both going to be really good and fun to watch but I think Jack and Sam just edge them out over the long haul. Our Nylander I think will be better than their Nylander based off of absolutely nothing haha. I think the main plus the leafs have is a bit more depth at defense. 

 

I am excited to hate on the leafs for the next 15 years as we battle them for the eastern conference. Rivalries are fun.

Edited October 12, 2016 by LGR4GM

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Short answer ... the Sabres, on all counts.

 

Of course, we are ahead in the rebuilding process ... we started earlier and were worse than the Leaves, so we had a head start in drafting top prospects.

 

Toronto is not just the centre of the hockey universe, just so you know.  And don't just take my word for it, you can ask any one there.

 

I am confident that the Sabres will win their first cup before the Leaves win their next one.

Edited October 12, 2016 by Sabres Fan In NS

[IKnowPhysics]

Technical assessment:

 

the Leafs.

[Randall Flagg]

Yeah, the Leafs.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

EDIT TO ADD:

 

#### the Leaves!!

[sabills]

Pertaining to the Leafs: them.

[Derrico]

I will start by adding the leafs.

 

Right now we have to be the better team.  The experience Reinhart and Eichel got from last year (think how they looked second half vs first) will be huge.  Matthews and Marner will be good but it will take time.  Long term, as the teams are currently constructed, I like Buffalo more then Toronto.  My fear is come free agency they may be more likely to sign some big names.  Sure Stamkos didn't sign there but Tavares is lurking and I think when they start winning some games, there will be some good players who want to make that jump over.  Still, FA is not how one builds a core team.  Either way it should be one hell of a rivalry for the next decade plus.  Expect some playoff series to go through each other in the not too distant future....

[Norcal]

I would also like to add the queefs!! I think the Sabres core group is on par with tge best in the league and I can't wait to watch them dominate the queefs for years to come.

[sabills]

I really like the leadership and experience on the Sabres much more than the Leafs. They have some really nice young players, but they don't have their O'Reilly as far as I'm concerned. Guys like Gionta and Gorges will probably be gone when the real winning starts, but I truly believe their time here has, and will, make a huge difference for these young guys down the road. A cursory glance at the Leafs shows me guys like Brooks Laich and Tyler Bozak, and I respect those guys, but they're not on the same level as the old men on the Sabres for my money.

[rakish]

I think Buffalo will be better this year because Murray traded many of his (often iffy) assets for players in their prime, therefore, Buffalo is a much older team in the rebuild cycle. Toronto has fewer players like O'Reilly and Kane

 

About 15 or 20 years ago, Detroit understood that there was a valuation imbalance in drafting, and that imbalance regarded Euros. They did some scouting, and were able to put together great teams for many years because of the rest of the league's Don Cherry mentality. That valuation imbalance has, for the most part, disappeared a few year ago.

 

The current valuation imbalance is the use of data in drafting. The Leafs are killing everyone else at the draft table. It's really not close. What I get when I analyze the past 5 drafts is that most teams will have 7 good NHL players from those 5 drafts. Buffalo's 7, Eichel, Risto, Reinhart, Nylander, Borgan, McCabe, Asplund. Where you divide the 'good NHL player' from 'not' is somewhat arbitrary. Most NHL teams have about 7, the Rangers have about 0, the Blue Jackets and the Coyotes have about 10. Toronto has 14. This means that Toronto is bringing in 5 good NHL players this year, 5 good NHL players next year, and 5 good NHL players the year after that. Buffalo will be bringing in 1 to 2. The question for me isn't is Eichel better than Mathews, the question is can a team with marginal NHL hockey players (think Foligno, Casey Nelson, Gionta, etc) compete with a team that doesn't have a depth problem.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Rakish, I'm going to have to disagree on the drafting.  I just looked at the Leafs last 6 years and they are producing about the same amount of talent we are.  The only non 1st rd pick on their roster drafted in the last 6 years in 2012 6th rd pick Connor Brown.  Also we have better prospects in G and similar quality depth at RW.  I'm not impressed with any of their LW prospects and Zaitsev and Carrick are good D prospects but Zaitsev is already 25.  I look at Borgen, McCabe and Guhle and thing we can compete their also in D quality.

[rakish]

where in Ontario?

[GASabresIUFAN]

where in Ontario?

 

Did I spend my summers?  Haliburton at a camp called Timberlane.

 

Rak, I also think you left off Fasching, Bailey, Baptiste, Cornel, Ullmark, Petersen, Pu and Estephan as legit NHL quality depth coming through our system.

Edited October 12, 2016 by GASabresIUFAN

[rakish]

We were near Sherkston

[GASabresIUFAN]

We were near Sherkston

I love the highlands in Ontario.  We used to canoe through Algonquin Park.  The glacier formed lakes are just breath taking, but this is off subject. ;)

[Jsixspd]

Leafs are YEARS behind us in the rebuild.  They didn't even really start to tank until last year.  

Now, if the Leafs start outperforming the Sabres,  I am going to be seriously P.O'd because that shouldn't happen in Hockey Heaven.  Hockey Hell, sure, but not in Hockey Heaven!!!      

[Neo]

Did I spend my summers? Haliburton at a camp called Timberlane.

 

Rak, I also think you left off Fasching, Bailey, Baptiste, Cornel, Ullmark, Petersen, Pu and Estephan as legit NHL quality depth coming through our system.

Lake Baptiste and Bancroft ... Halliburton and Highland Grove .... God's country.

 

Two summers in Algonquin.

 

*******

 

I think Babcock had the Leafs playing structurally sound hockey last year. He's going to get the most out of his roster for years, as an aside to the components discussion.

 

Toronto scored on 7.63% of its shots last year. That will go up. It's team save percentage was 90.4%. That, too, will go up.

 

They're different, but very close teams in the short and intermediate term.

Edited October 12, 2016 by N'eo

[GASabresIUFAN]

Proof is in the pudding. As I watched Tor hang with Wash in the 1st 2 games of their playoff series and former 1st rd pick Kapanen score twice (after only scoring once in his 8 games during the regular season). I realize depth, better player developmemt and coaching has Toronto miles ahead of the Sabres. We can argue our top end players are as talented, but most aren't nearly as effective.

 

Lets compare

1) Eichel vs Matthews - I'd take Eichel (better passer), but it's very close.

2) Marner vs Reinhart - out of position top end picks. Hands down Marner

3) Kadri vs ROR - 2nd line centers Kadri is the higher end goal scorer. Close, but ROR better 200 ft, but is he worth 3 mill more per season.

4) Risto vs Reilly - Risto easy, but Reilly is going to get better defensively under Babcock

5) JVR vs Kane - each teams top LW. Anyone taking Kane? Didn't think so. JVR is as good a scorer and 18 times better playmaker. He aso makes 750k less

6) Nylander vs Okposo - Obviously Nylander is way younger, but 61 pts in his 1st full NHL season gives Nylander the higher ceiling. Maybe someday this will be Nylander vs Nylander.

7) Gardiner vs McCabe - McCabe is better defensively, but Gardiner is the way better player. 20 pts vs 43

8) Zaitsev vs Kuilkov - Not even a comparison - Zaitsev

9) Bozak vs Girgensons/Larsson - we have ineffective youth vs effective Vet who scored 55 pts. Bozak

10) Komerov vs Moulson - Similar production, but Babcock uses Komerov is all situations. Komerov, plus he earns 2 mill less.

11) Hunwick vs Franson - two depth players forced into bigger roles, slight edge to Franson on play, but huge edge to Hunwick on Cap value. I'd rather have Hunwick and save the cap.

12) Hyman vs Foligno - Really a wash. Neither is essential to either team long term.

13) Brown vs ........... - we have no one to compare him to. Gionta is the closest, except Brown is 22. Brown

14) Polak vs Gorges - Physical D, Polak is cheaper and better

15) Carrick vs Bogo - on paper not a fair comparison. Sadly the unheralded Carrick had the better season, especially relative to their paychecks

16) Lehner vs Andesson - GGA the same, save% similar, age and price go to Lehner

17) Enroth vs Nilsson - Nilsson

18) Ennis vs Shoshnikov - Small depth forwards. Ennis might be more talented, but production similar and the Leafs is younger and cheaper

19) Martin vs Carrier - depth forwards - Carrier has more upside and is younger, but Martin fit his role perfectly for the Leafs.

20) Future - The Leafs still have more forwards on the way in 1st rd picks Rychel and Kapenen, plus two solid 20 year old AHL D in Dermott and Neilsen. We have no AHL D and none of our forwards except Nylander have the upside of Rychel or Kapenen. (Both guys were acquired by Toronto in trade). We would have had similar talent, but GMTM traded away the picks.

 

Bottomline: Toronto is better and will be getting even better very soon. They also have a younger and cheaper lineup at most critical places. They are deeper with effective forwards and deeper on defense with D who suppliement their offense at much lower prices. Their D cost 16.875 for their top 8 (for 31goals and 153 pts) vs ours which cost 24.95 (for 17g and 115 pts). Think we got our monies worth? They soso get better value out of their forwards. They also have a better coach and GM.

 

I hate to say it, but Pegula should fire GMTM for having no idea on how to build a team and then let the new GM decide on DD fate.

Edited April 16, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Sabre fan]

I live 100 miles north of Toronto in a small town called Coboconk and it's beautiful up here! we have 85 acres with nice trails and have all kinds of wild life like deer, turkeys and foxes coming up beside the house to eat. It amazes me to see Toronto Maple Leafs doing so well but really that all goes to babcock and his ability to get the most of of his players (something Blysma has no clue about). It is kinda funny how now everyone is going on about how wonderful Kadri, JVR, Bozak, reilly, gardiner, etc arfe when a few years back trust me all I heard up here was leaf fans going on like we do on this board about the Sabres asking to run these guys out of town. trust me, Leaf fans hated these guys and it is not a coincidence that since babs took over, every Leaf looks different and so much more confident and he has each one playing in a role that best suits their respective strengths while minimizing their exposure through their weaknesses...over all we are fine and comparing the two teams is tough cause they have a coach who breeds confidence, swagger, a belief in themselves and their teammates and a system that allows each player to excel at whatever they are best at doing, it isn;t the players here it is the way they are used and coached

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don't think anyone thinks DD is as good a coach as Babcock. However, despite Babcock's ability, I think the biggest difference is that Bozak, Kadri and JVR are in their correct positions. Bozak is a third line center on a good team and guess what he is now a 3rd line center with the additions of Matthews, Nylander and Marner. Kadri was expected to be the focus of the offense before this season. Now he is the 2nd line center and gets to play against 2nd pairing D as teams focus stopping Matthews. JVR is finally playing with players of his ability.

 

Sadly we aren't at that point. We are still trying to play a 3rd/4th line player like Foligno on Eichel's wing.

[Taro T]

I don't think anyone thinks DD is as good a coach as Babcock. However, despite Babcock's ability, I think the biggest difference is that Bozak, Kadri and JVR are in their correct positions. Bozak is a third line center on a good team and guess what he is now a 3rd line center with the additions of Matthews, Nylander and Marner. Kadri was expected to be the focus of the offense before this season. Now he is the 2nd line center and gets to play against 2nd pairing D as teams focus stopping Matthews. JVR is finally playing with players of his ability.

Sadly we aren't at that point. We are still trying to play a 3rd/4th line player like Foligno on Eichel's wing.

So, Zach (*****) Hyman is a 1st liner? Seriously?

[GASabresIUFAN]

So, Zach (*****) Hyman is a 1st liner? Seriously?

Hyman is just a place holder until they call up Rychel and Kapanen permenantly. Sadly Marcus isn't a placeholder for anyone.

[Taro T]

Hyman is just a place holder until they call up Rychel and Kapanen permenantly. Sadly Marcus isn't a placeholder for anyone.

In that case, Foligno is a placeholder for Nylander or Baptiste.