Is our Defense Good Enough?

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm not worried about the offense. I'm not even that worried about Lehner in net other then whether or not he can stay healthy.

 

No, my biggest worry heading into the season is our defense. Our Risto discussion and the players' Corsi numbers (amongst other analytics) makes me wonder if our defense is good enough for a contending team.

 

The acquisition of Kulikov is very interesting. His Corsi last year on a good Fla team was only 46 down from over 50 the 3 previous seasons. His 46 is par for the course for the Sabres D from last year. McCabe is the returning leader at 47.4.

 

For this team to take the next step forward our D possession numbers need to improve and improve dramatically. However all our D have some warts.

1) Risto, still unsigned, Corsi was 45. He only had 1 goal and 9 assists after Jan.

2) Kulikov - offense slipped over the last 4 years and last year his Corsi fell significantly.

3) Bogosian - Terrible 1st half after missing 20 games with injury. Rebounded to have his best offensive season in years, but possessions numbers so far in Buffalo below his mediocre numbers in Atl/Wpg.

4) McCabe added PT and scoring as season progressed. Most optimistic about him for this season, but still young and unproven in a bigger role.

5) Gorges aging slow D whose possession numbers are slipping as is his PT.

6) Franson - alleged puck mover and offensive D who added little O, not much D and can't skate. Other then that he's great.

 

The projected 3rd pairing of Franson and Gorges scares the crap out of me. They might be our Achilles heal even if we get solid work out of the top 4.

[qwksndmonster]

We could definitely use a good #2 to round our defense out. I'm pretty concerned about our defense if Risto goes out. Hopefully McCabe will show progress and Bogo won't (continue to) suck. I don't know a lot about Kulikov but I recall Panthers fans saying he had a good year last season.

[pi2000]

No the defense is not anywhere near good enough yet.    They need more speed on the back-end.    

 

I think the current roster can sneak into a playoff spot, but until guys like Gorges and Franson are replaced with better skaters, this team will continue to struggle in it's own end. 

 

Risto needs to improve his skating, and I wouldn't consider Bogosian to be very fleet of foot either... he has + top end speed, but he's slow out of the gate.     Kulikov is an improvement and like the way McCabe can skate, but they need to replace Gorges and Franson for this team to take another step.

Edited September 28, 2016 by pi2000

[bob_sauve28]

No, we need skill and depth before we are a contender. As good as Risto is, he still needs to grow a lot to be THAT guy. 

[TrueBlueGED]

In a word: no.

[Randall Flagg]

If I could pick one miracle thing to happen for the season (that isn't just winning the cup) it would be Jack winning an Art Ross. But thing number two is Casey Nelson blossoming into a top 4 role. His skill set is the exact type of thing that would make me feel better about our defense.

 

Realistically, as currently constructed, we're going to have problems.

Pittsburgh's defense was an utter disaster until halfway through this season, though, so I'm not terribly worried long term. It can be fixed.

[TrueBlueGED]

If I could pick one miracle thing to happen for the season (that isn't just winning the cup) it would be Jack winning an Art Ross. But thing number two is Casey Nelson blossoming into a top 4 role. His skill set is the exact type of thing that would make me feel better about our defense.

 

Realistically, as currently constructed, we're going to have problems.

 

Pittsburgh's defense was an utter disaster until halfway through this season, though, so I'm not terribly worried long term. It can be fixed.

Their defense was still pretty weak as a whole, they just had enough scoring forward depth to compensate, along with a coach who recognized the weaknesses and was willing to play an aggressive style to mask them. I think we have to play an attacking style because our blue line has some offensive ability, but is pretty bad defensively. Solution: spend less time playing defense!

[Randall Flagg]

Their defense was still pretty weak as a whole, they just had enough scoring forward depth to compensate, along with a coach who recognized the weaknesses and was willing to play an aggressive style to mask them. I think we have to play an attacking style because our blue line has some offensive ability, but is pretty bad defensively. Solution: spend less time playing defense!

For sure, that's what I mean. I don't think it has to be a long term roadblock. 

 

Another example, compare Tampa's D to what it was 2-3 years ago. A Stralman in free agency can really change things. 

[TrueBlueGED]

For sure, that's what I mean. I don't think it has to be a long term roadblock.

 

Another example, compare Tampa's D to what it was 2-3 years ago. A Stralman in free agency can really change things.

Unfortunately, I'm not convinced Murray would target a Stralman :(

[Randall Flagg]

Unfortunately, I'm not convinced Murray would target a Stralman :(

I don't know if I'd say that. Sure, his acquisitions have been underwhelming for the most part, but I don't think he's satisfied with it as constructed, and I don't think we missed out on any good players that had a chance to come here (like, no way Stralman does when we have to tank for McEichel, and no way we give up what it takes to get Subban)

He signed Nelson and drafted Guhle, who show more of the skill set that we're looking for than guys that have been allowed to leave. 

 

I'd say overall I'm undecided on Murray's evaluation of defensemen right now. If we still look sketchy in a year or two, I start wanting a different GM.

 

Edit: Fixed because I don't make sense

Edited September 29, 2016 by Randall Flagg

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't know if I'd say that. Sure, his acquisitions have been underwhelming for the most part, but I don't think he's satisfied with it as constructed, and I don't think we missed out on any players that never had a chance to come here (like, no way Stralman does when we have to tank for McEichel, and no way we give up what it takes to get Subban)

He signed Nelson and drafted Guhle, who show more of the skill set that we're looking for than guys that have been allowed to leave.

 

I'd say overall I'm undecided on Murray's evaluation of defensemen right now. If we still look sketchy in a year or two, I start wanting a different GM.

Goligoski! :cry:

 

I hear you, still early. But as I've said before, it's probably the thing I'm watching most with respect to his roster construction.

[Randall Flagg]

Goligoski! :cry:

 

I hear you, still early. But as I've said before, it's probably the thing I'm watching most with respect to his roster construction.

Perhaps, though I'm not sure I'd have been thrilled trading for his rights and giving him that contract. 

 

Same! Let's watch together  :wub:

[TrueBlueGED]

Perhaps, though I'm not sure I'd have been thrilled trading for his rights and giving him that contract.

 

Same! Let's watch together :wub:

I thought Goligoski's contract was about as perfect as it gets in UFA. Yandle, on the other hand...that was nuts.

[Randall Flagg]

I thought Goligoski's contract was about as perfect as it gets in UFA. Yandle, on the other hand...that was nuts.

Agreed, but that doesn't mean it's a good contract to have :lol: Plus, he never actually hit free agency. Tough to know if GMTM ever would have gone after him. 

[TrueBlueGED]

Agreed, but that doesn't mean it's a good contract to have :lol: Plus, he never actually hit free agency. Tough to know if GMTM ever would have gone after him.

Fair deuce.

[Wyldnwoody44]

We are simply too slow on the back end, I am curious how DD is going to structure the attack/defense, we need to get more sustained puck possession.... If that happens then we have enough to squeak by short term.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I agree that this group isn't a championship group and we are stuck with Bogo for the time being (4 more years at 5.143). What I also don't like about the group is that out of our current top 6, I feel only Risto and McCabe have upside potential.  Bogo, 26, and Kulikov, 25, to me are basically the same player.  Solid 2nd line NHL D who are what they are.  They still in their prime, skate OK, the are somewhat physical, and can add some O (Bogo more then Kulikov).  Both are serviceable, but I don't want to rely on either to play top line minutes.  I feel the other 2, Gorges and Franson are diminishing assets. 

 

On the bright side Kulikov and Franson's deals are up at the end of this season ($7.658) savings and Gorges could be lost to expansion (another 3.9).  This could lead to 11.559 mill being available for D upgrades as soon as next year. The question is whether GMTM would be willing to let some kids earn 2 of those 3 slots.  One other piece of bad news is that the only real good UFA next year is Shattenkirk.  Can you imagine the bidding war for him?

 

My next question is how do we improve the team this year other then hoping GMTM and DD give Nelson a legit shot at beating out Franson?

[LGR4GM]

First, no our defense isn't good enough.

 

Second, my D is good enough ask your mom

 

Third, come on now. Kulikov has literally played 0 minutes for us and we are writing him off? Let's see what he's got. If he can be the shutdown guy with Risto our defense isn't bad off. That means Bogosian and McCabe can stay on the 2nd unit where they should be. If 2-3 years from now Ghule progresses right then maybe we can add him to the mix. Let's give Kulikov a chance.

 

I think suggesting he'll be gone after this season saving is cap space is extremely premature. If you're premature, your D is not good enough.

 

Further, what kids are there to earn 3 slots on defense? I'll give ya Ghule, who else?

[Wyldnwoody44]

First, no our defense isn't good enough.

 

Second, my D is good enough ask your mom

 

Third, come on now. Kulikov has literally played 0 minutes for us and we are writing him off? Let's see what he's got. If he can be the shutdown guy with Risto our defense isn't bad off. That means Bogosian and McCabe can stay on the 2nd unit where they should be. If 2-3 years from now Ghule progresses right then maybe we can add him to the mix. Let's give Kulikov a chance.

 

I think suggesting he'll be gone after this season saving is cap space is extremely premature. If you're premature, your D is not good enough.

 

Further, what kids are there to earn 3 slots on defense? I'll give ya Ghule, who else?

Nelson

[LGR4GM]

So we got 2 potentially. Any others? I'll check tomorrow but we need a list.

[nfreeman]

I think if Franson is heathy he will surprise a lot of people around here and have a pretty decent year.

[GASabresIUFAN]

First, no our defense isn't good enough.

 

Second, my D is good enough ask your mom

 

Third, come on now. Kulikov has literally played 0 minutes for us and we are writing him off? Let's see what he's got. If he can be the shutdown guy with Risto our defense isn't bad off. That means Bogosian and McCabe can stay on the 2nd unit where they should be. If 2-3 years from now Ghule progresses right then maybe we can add him to the mix. Let's give Kulikov a chance.

 

I think suggesting he'll be gone after this season saving is cap space is extremely premature. If you're premature, your D is not good enough.

 

Further, what kids are there to earn 3 slots on defense? I'll give ya Ghule, who else?

I'm not writing off Kulikov.  I'm just saying he is a lefty version of Bogo and nothing more.  That doesn't mean he isn't going to be a decent player for us, it just means don't expect a sudden improvement into a 1st line D.  The guy has played 7 NHL seasons and pretty much each of the seasons is very similar with his offense shrinking as he lost PP time to Campbell and Ekblad.    Pencil in 20 points and 21 minutes a night and we shouldn't expect more then that in Buffalo.

[dudacek]

A smart, mobile puckmover is obviously the missing ingredient.

 

Depth-wise, I think people mistake the real problem with the defence.

Kulikov, Gorges, Franson and McCabe match up just fine with most bottom fours.

The most important ingredient is the top two and Risto and Bogo just don't measure up.

 

To be cup worthy, we need to acquire a one (slim to no chance).

Or Risto becomes a one and we need to acquire or develop a two

Edited September 29, 2016 by dudacek

[Huckleberry]

I think if Franson is heathy he will surprise a lot of people around here and have a pretty decent year.

 

Same goes for Bogo.

[Thorny]

A smart, mobile puckmover is obviously the missing ingredient.

Depth-wise, I think people mistake the real problem with the defence.

Kulikov, Gorges, Franson and McCabe match up just fine with most bottom fours.

The most important ingredient is the top two and Risto and Bogo just don't measure up.

To be cup worthy, we need to acquire a one (slim to no chance).

Or Risto becomes a one and we need to acquire or develop a two

Ya, it'll probably have to be the bolded. I'd say there's a pretty good chance of Risto becoming a solid 1, in the vein of a Letang. He may not become the guy that's seen as that franchise, perennial Norris level defender, but Letang usually isn't mentioned in that group, and he's proved more than adequate in Pittsburgh as their top guy.

 

Granted, he's still a lot for Ristolainen to live up to, but I think he can get there or close.