The Ryan O'Reilly super thread 2015!!!

[Derrico]

Yes. Wildcard, with respect, I think your perception of what players signing new contracts make is a little skewed. Paul Stastny as a UFA just signed a contract worth $7 million per year. He's a really good player. Is he exceptional? I don't think so, and I also think O'Reilly is better. Toews and Kane are unquestionably better than O'Reilly...but he's not going to get the kind of money they are, which is $10.5 million annually. If we can accept that O'Reilly is better than Stastny but closer to him than he is to Toews, then $8 million simply is not unreasonable when signing a contract two years later.

Took you much quicker to explain what I was getting at haha.

[TrueBlueGED]

My real estate appraisal career has me immediately looking at comparables to look at ROR worth (as liger first wanted) and therefore I looked to the most recent data. I looked at the 2014 July 1st signing period as that is like the real estate spring (hot) market. The only somewhat big name to sign was Paul stastny who signed a 4 year deal worth 7 million per year. Well as in any year (aside from 2008 to 2010) the market, and cost of doing business goes up every year. So in my eyes, the best comparable is the most recent which is stastny who is also a centre and also played on Colorado prior to the signing. Stastny was 28 at the time of the signing, ROR is currently 24. Stastny was taken 44th overall in 2005, ROR was taken 33rd in 2009. They're both 6 feet tall. ROR plays a much stronger defensive game, stastny has slightly better point totals (although both have only had one season with more than 25 goals). Like your house, you look at what your neighbour got and expect more for yours two years later. Comparable player salaries from more than two years prior are almost irrelevant, especially considering the trend in nhl player salaries. If stastny got 7 in 2014, ROR is at least worth 7.5 to 8 beginning in 2016.

 

I agree that we have to manage the cap to ensure money is available for our stars when the time comes to pay them. However, in a salary cap era, I think it's also prudent to bring in some high cost talented players to really go for it while your stars are making reasonable salaries on entry level deals. Once Eichel starts make 10 plus mil per season it's hard to afford talent around him. Let's bring in big talent now while we can afford it.

 

Beat me to the Stastny comparison by that much. Another thing to keep in mind is not every one of our young studs is going to make huge money...we just have to sign them before they peak. I know the Myers deal probably scares a lot of people from doing so, but look at the ridiculous bargain the Rangers have right now with only paying McDonagh $4.7 million. If I were GM I'd look long term for both Ristolainen and Girgensons as soon as their ELCs are up. Forget the bridge contract, get them signed long term "over" current market value and hope they continue to develop and those contracts then look like a bargain. That's how you pay Eichel megabucks and afford players like O'Reilly.

[Huckleberry]

My biggest reason why im am against trading for him, besides the fact he is only on a one year deal and will command 7 mill a year.

He is a C/LW we got enough of those.  Colorado wants a LHD , we don't have enough of those.

[deluca67]

Yes. Wildcard, with respect, I think your perception of what players signing new contracts make is a little skewed. Paul Stastny as a UFA just signed a contract worth $7 million per year. He's a really good player. Is he exceptional? I don't think so, and I also think O'Reilly is better. Toews and Kane are unquestionably better than O'Reilly...but he's not going to get the kind of money they are, which is $10.5 million annually. If we can accept that O'Reilly is better than Stastny but closer to him than he is to Toews, then $8 million simply is not unreasonable when signing a contract two years later.

Are you willing to pay $8 mil a year and give up a handful of assets for O'Reilly? It's unlikely he's hitting the UFA market. He's a good talent, just not worth a franchise altering investment, IMO. 

[TrueBlueGED]

Are you willing to pay $8 mil a year and give up a handful of assets for O'Reilly? It's unlikely he's hitting the UFA market. He's a good talent, just not worth a franchise altering investment, IMO. 

 

Yes.

[Derrico]

Are you willing to pay $8 mil a year and give up a handful of assets for O'Reilly? It's unlikely he's hitting the UFA market. He's a good talent, just not worth a franchise altering investment, IMO.

 

To me it comes down to what the assets are. Otherwise yes. Edited May 18, 2015 by Derrico

[deluca67]

To me it comes down to what the assets are. Otherwise yes.

If you were the Av's, what would you ask for? If I'm the Av's GM I want NHL players in return. The Sabres don't have any to give. 

 

If O'Reilly is as good as people think than why would the Av's even consider letting him go? Cap is not an issue, MacKinnon will be a RFA and they can always dump Iginla and Stuart if they want to create more room.   

[Derrico]

If you were the Av's, what would you ask for? If I'm the Av's GM I want NHL players in return. The Sabres don't have any to give. 

 

If O'Reilly is as good as people think than why would the Av's even consider letting him go? Cap is not an issue, MacKinnon will be a RFA and they can always dump Iginla and Stuart if they want to create more room.

 

Good question on what would avs want. As far as keeping him, it's not cap space that is the problem but rather spending to the cap. Remember those problems we use to have? Several teams still have them. Hence stastny moving on.

[Hoss]

If you were the Av's, what would you ask for? If I'm the Av's GM I want NHL players in return. The Sabres don't have any to give.

 

If O'Reilly is as good as people think than why would the Av's even consider letting him go? Cap is not an issue, MacKinnon will be a RFA and they can always dump Iginla and Stuart if they want to create more room.

Zadorov, Foligno, Gorges, Moulson, Grigorenko, Girgensons, McCabe, Pysyk... There's some fire power in there to tandem with picks and prospects.

[Huckleberry]

Good question on what would avs want. As far as keeping him, it's not cap space that is the problem but rather spending to the cap. Remember those problems we use to have? Several teams still have them. Hence stastny moving on.

 

They'd ask for Zadorov , #21 , Girgensons :p

[deluca67]

Zadorov, Foligno, Gorges, Moulson, Grigorenko, Girgensons, McCabe, Pysyk... There's some fire power in there to tandem with picks and prospects.

There's nothing listed there that the Av's would be interested in, maybe Girgensons. The AV's aren't rebuilding so I doubt they are interested in prospects & question marks at this point. 

[Derrico]

They'd ask for Zadorov , #21 , Girgensons :p

Hahahhaaha well I say no and move on at that point. But if the owner knew they couldn't pay him and want the best return (after learning from stastny situation) would 21, 31, Grigio and pysyk get it done ( only if an extension was already in place)?

[deluca67]

Good question on what would avs want. As far as keeping him, it's not cap space that is the problem but rather spending to the cap. Remember those problems we use to have? Several teams still have them. Hence stastny moving on.

Ennis is a candidate then. Decent production, 25 years old and a fixed cost till 2019. 

Hahahhaaha well I say no and move on at that point. But if the owner knew they couldn't pay him and want the best return (after learning from stastny situation) would 21, 31, Grigio and pysyk get it done ( only if an extension was already in place)?

Does Grigorenko have value at this point? 

[Derrico]

Ennis is a candidate then. Decent production, 25 years old and a fixed cost till 2019. 

Does Grigorenko have value at this point?

 

You suggesting Ennis for ROR? I don't know if I want to go there.

 

Grigo doesn't have much but I figured max value would be reuniting him with Roy.

[SwampD]

This thread is weird.

[Derrico]

If they know ROR wants 8 per and ownership can't pay it then they will want something but I'm not sure what they're bargaining chips look like and hence keep some of our better players and prospects out of the deal.

[North Buffalo]

Let's just do this.   Everything to do with Ryan freaking O'Reilly. His likes, his dislikes, favorite colors, boxers or briefs, ALL THESE QUESTIONS AND MORE RIGHT HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

The only year ROR has broken the 20g plateau was last year.  Last year his shot% was .37 above where it normally sits meaning that statistically he isn't a 20+ goal scorer.  While his defensive skills are as far as takeaways are impressive, he is averaging 88 a year.  So just a touch over 1 per game.  His giveaways sit at 30 on average which means he is very sound defensively but at what point do these extra defensive skills become superfluous?  How often is 1 takeaway a game making the difference?  Judging by the way hockey works probably not as much as we would like.  

 

If we look at other stats I can see that he starts just over 50% of the time in the defensive zone and for the last 2 years has faced above average competition.  Now looking at his Corsi and Fenqick we can see that mathematically ROR on the ice his team has the puck only 50% of the time so again we are in the middle.  Now I can tell you that ROR is contributing positively to the possession numbers.  So far we can all agree Defensively ROR is a very good player.  

 

Now looking once again at the offense his usage suggests he spends almost no time on the PP.  His pp shots and such are very low, 49 total attempted PP for the entire season.  Why?   Well for one if you watch Ryan O'Reilly his shot is average. He does get the shot through about 62% of the time which is decent.  Just to show what I mean and so you have a bench mark for that, Zemgus is at about 61% of shots getting through.  So ROR is again doing okay but not great.  If we look at his PK stuff, the outlier year for Sh% is also the outlier year for his good PK stuff.  This past year his TOI for pk ice time was only 156.9minutes so this again isn't what he was getting used most.  Most of his time is 5v5 which is fine.  He seems to handle his minutes well and again is right in the middle.  

 

Now if you want we could talk about now stats stuff like his on ice vision, stickhandling, hockey IQ.  Sadly it must be mentioned somewhat.  His on ice vision is above NHL average and he has a decent pass.  His stickhandling IMPO is just okay.  He is a direct kind of guy.  One thing you will notice is ROR makes safe plays.  He in some ways is like Samson in that regard although I think in the end Sammy is smarter.  His skating stride is good but he is a direct skater and you don't see the array of cuts and slashes you might want for a top 3 forward.  That said he is very strong on his skates.  He is good down low at digging the puck out.  He tends to pass first but I feel like there is a lack of creativity there.

 

I feel like that's enough.  It won't prove my point to you and that's fine because we both have decided, but when I look at O'Reilly whether that is during the game or his advanced stats his defensive play if very sound.  It is quite good.  His offensive play is very lackluster.  In truth ROR is like a better defensive version of Pommers but with less offense.

 

If I am going to tie up 8mil, which in todays lack of scoring NHL for a defensive player is questionble, then I have committed that money to someone who at heart is really a nice 2nd line defensive player that will give you 15-20goals a season and around 35a.  

Toews, Kane, Ovechkin, Malkin, Subban, Crosby, Perry, Lundqvist, Giroux, Staal, Getzlaf, Kessel, }{ Weber, Nash, Suter, Parise, Datsyuk, Spezza, Stamkos.  There is your list of players making 7.5mil or more.  Kessel and up make 8mil or more.  Ryan O'Reilly IMPO doesn't belong in that group because he doesn't bring enough to the table on the offensive side to warrant it.

 

Now you have your answer, well basically,  this was superfluous because I am not going to convince you Tank and you aren't going to convince me. I don't think ROR should make more then 7mil and truthfully I would give him 6.5 and not a penny more.  Of course I think you are accurate with how much he will ask for and some team will pay it, but that team will be a big market because I honestly believe that is where he wants to go.

 

crap he sounds like Stafford

[sabresith]

Thank you guys for making the points for both sides of the debate. So I'll chime in with how many 15-25 goal scorers does one team need, cause right now this team is stocked with those kind of players. I'm sorry but for 8mil I want a 30+ goal scorer. Also IMO I think some of you under estimate the value/potential of our players verses other teams players. I know its been a rough last couple of years, but the grass isn't always greener. All I'm saying is if I'm investing the picks, players, and salary that we think its going to take to get RoR. I want a lot more.

[deluca67]

You suggesting Ennis for ROR? I don't know if I want to go there.

 

Grigo doesn't have much but I figured max value would be reuniting him with Roy.

I'm suggesting a package that includes Ennis. There would have to be substantial assets to go along with Ennis. The Av's would still have to sell this to their fan base, letting O'Reilly go for "futures" on the heals of Stastny leaving, as was mentioned earlier, would be a hard sell. They need to to have someone that can be plugged in to the NHL roster and produce right away. Does Ennis get it done? I doubt it, problem is Ennis is the best the Sabres have to offer. If other teams, like the Oilers, want to get involved they can easily beat the Sabres best offer in a trade. I can see a player like Hall being very attractive to the Av's. As was mentioned earlier, the Av's are a team on a budget. Hall is a fixed cost at $6 mill through 2019-20.  

[deluca67]

Thank you guys for making the points for both sides of the debate. So I'll chime in with how many 15-25 goal scorers does one team need, cause right now this team is stocked with those kind of players. I'm sorry but for 8mil I want a 30+ goal scorer. Also IMO I think some of you under estimate the value/potential of our players verses other teams players. I know its been a rough last couple of years, but the grass isn't always greener. All I'm saying is if I'm investing the picks, players, and salary that we think its going to take to get RoR. I want a lot more.

I can agree with this. I don't know if this is the right time or if this is the right player to make this type of move with. We can all talk about the talent the Sabres have in the pipeline, problem is, neither the Sabres or we the fans truly know what the Sabres have at this point. A deal for O'Reilly is a huge risk for a franchise in the Sabres position. If O'Reilly can come to the Sabres and be the poor man's Toews then the move can really accelerate the progress. If the Sabres deal for O'Reilly and all he is just OK it can stymie the progress and set the franchise back years. I would prefer to stand pat at this time and wait to see who becomes available down the line.  

[PASabreFan]

This thread is weird.

It's all these poor hockey fans have. Kind of sad.

[X. Benedict]

It's all these poor hockey fans have. Kind of sad.

 

No. We have superstition and conjecture. 

 

Now hand me my rabbit foot, but I suppose you are against that kind of thing. 

[LGR4GM]

ROR is a beast and he's got that sexy hockey smile.

 

I think 8 mil is the new 6 mil, but I would hope it would only cost us 7-7.5.

 

I hope like hell we get him.

 

 

My real estate appraisal career has me immediately looking at comparables to look at ROR worth (as liger first wanted) and therefore I looked to the most recent data. I looked at the 2014 July 1st signing period as that is like the real estate spring (hot) market. The only somewhat big name to sign was Paul stastny who signed a 4 year deal worth 7 million per year. Well as in any year (aside from 2008 to 2010) the market, and cost of doing business goes up every year. So in my eyes, the best comparable is the most recent which is stastny who is also a centre and also played on Colorado prior to the signing. Stastny was 28 at the time of the signing, ROR is currently 24. Stastny was taken 44th overall in 2005, ROR was taken 33rd in 2009. They're both 6 feet tall. ROR plays a much stronger defensive game, stastny has slightly better point totals (although both have only had one season with more than 25 goals). Like your house, you look at what your neighbour got and expect more for yours two years later. Comparable player salaries from more than two years prior are almost irrelevant, especially considering the trend in nhl player salaries. If stastny got 7 in 2014, ROR is at least worth 7.5 to 8 beginning in 2016.

 

I agree that we have to manage the cap to ensure money is available for our stars when the time comes to pay them. However, in a salary cap era, I think it's also prudent to bring in some high cost talented players to really go for it while your stars are making reasonable salaries on entry level deals. Once Eichel starts make 10 plus mil per season it's hard to afford talent around him. Let's bring in big talent now while we can afford it.

 

 

Are you willing to pay $8 mil a year and give up a handful of assets for O'Reilly? It's unlikely he's hitting the UFA market. He's a good talent, just not worth a franchise altering investment, IMO. 

 

 

Yes.

 

 

To me it comes down to what the assets are. Otherwise yes.

 

 

Zadorov, Foligno, Gorges, Moulson, Grigorenko, Girgensons, McCabe, Pysyk... There's some fire power in there to tandem with picks and prospects.

 

 

They'd ask for Zadorov , #21 , Girgensons :P

 

 

There's nothing listed there that the Av's would be interested in, maybe Girgensons. The AV's aren't rebuilding so I doubt they are interested in prospects & question marks at this point. 

 

I am quoting all of this because for those saying ROR is worth 8million a year and is just the bee's knees, how are you talking a package like Zadorov, Grigorenko, 21st for him?  You can't have it both ways. Either he is an elite talent worth that money or he isn't.  If he is then you need to start looking at what Deluca is saying.  

 

I am the Avalanche, my asking price starts with Ristolainen, Ennis/Zemgus (whichever they prefer), 21st, and Bailey/Baptiste/Fasching/Compher (whichever one of them they like) that is what it costs to trade for 8mil a year guys.  Of course as I have stated repeatedly I think O'Reilly is overrated and putting together a package like this would hurt the team more than it will ever help.  

[French Collection]

He wants the big bucks, he plays out the season and signs as a UFA. Very risky acquisition.

[WildCard]

Yes. Wildcard, with respect, I think your perception of what players signing new contracts make is a little skewed. Paul Stastny as a UFA just signed a contract worth $7 million per year. He's a really good player. Is he exceptional? I don't think so, and I also think O'Reilly is better. Toews and Kane are unquestionably better than O'Reilly...but he's not going to get the kind of money they are, which is $10.5 million annually. If we can accept that O'Reilly is better than Stastny but closer to him than he is to Toews, then $8 million simply is not unreasonable when signing a contract two years later.

They overpaid, that simple. The Ducks otoh went out and spent $5 mil/year on Kessler, a more comparable player to O'Reily, and got much more production both in the regular season and in the playoffs. 

I am quoting all of this because for those saying ROR is worth 8million a year and is just the bee's knees, how are you talking a package like Zadorov, Grigorenko, 21st for him?  You can't have it both ways. Either he is an elite talent worth that money or he isn't.  If he is then you need to start looking at what Deluca is saying.  

 

I am the Avalanche, my asking price starts with Ristolainen, Ennis/Zemgus (whichever they prefer), 21st, and Bailey/Baptiste/Fasching/Compher (whichever one of them they like) that is what it costs to trade for 8mil a year guys.  Of course as I have stated repeatedly I think O'Reilly is overrated and putting together a package like this would hurt the team more than it will ever help.  

Exactly. It's not as if we don't have to give up players/assets for him, and they will be substantial as Deluca points out. 

Bergeron was 27 when he won his first Selke. O'Reilly is currently 23.

He's 24  :P

 

I don't see why his age is a factor here. Does he have room to grow? Yeah, but it still indicates he's not as special a defensive forward as advertised.