X. Benedict Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 My philosophy on building a team: The one position that you overpay for is center. Get O'Reilly,extend him, and have center ice locked up for the next 6-8 years. He's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 Who is better right this moment, Bergeron or O'Reilly? This seems like a good comparison test. Offensively they are very similar. My philosophy on building a team: The one position that you overpay for is center. Get O'Reilly,extend him, and have center ice locked up for the next 6-8 years. He's good. I think he plays wing for Colorado but I am having a hard time finding that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanny Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 I am quoting all of this because for those saying ROR is worth 8million a year and is just the bee's knees, how are you talking a package like Zadorov, Grigorenko, 21st for him? You can't have it both ways. Either he is an elite talent worth that money or he isn't. If he is then you need to start looking at what Deluca is saying. I am the Avalanche, my asking price starts with Ristolainen, Ennis/Zemgus (whichever they prefer), 21st, and Bailey/Baptiste/Fasching/Compher (whichever one of them they like) that is what it costs to trade for 8mil a year guys. Of course as I have stated repeatedly I think O'Reilly is overrated and putting together a package like this would hurt the team more than it will ever help. Contract status plays into his trade value. Rick Nash is an $8M a year player, however he didn't cost that in assets because he needed a new deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 Contract status plays into his trade value. Rick Nash is an $8M a year player, however he didn't cost that in assets because he needed a new deal. Things to keep in mind about that. Nash wanted out of Columbus and had a no trade clause. That trade still included the NYR sending 3 NHL players and a 1st round pick. Granted Columbus added a sweetner of Steve Deslisle but still, that trade was still fairly large. Finally Rick Nash was on an 8yr deal when he was traded, it is a deal he is still on. Rick Nash was not traded because he only had 1 year left on his deal. My understanding is Nash signed that deal in 2010 while still a member of the Blue Jackets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deluca67 Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 My philosophy on building a team: The one position that you overpay for is center. Get O'Reilly,extend him, and have center ice locked up for the next 6-8 years. He's good. Can any team afford to pay a third line center $8 mil a year. If the Sabres have done a good job drafting than wouldn't O'Reilly be slotted behind Eichel and Reinhart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 I'm not giving up Ennis for ROR, and I don't think GMTM will do so either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 Can any team afford to pay a third line center $8 mil a year. If the Sabres have done a good job drafting than wouldn't O'Reilly be slotted behind Eichel and Reinhart? In Buffalo's case, yes. Reinhart and Eichel will be on entry levels. Don't think of it as how much you pay O'Reilly, but consider how much you are investing in the sum of your centers. Eichel and Reinhart's low entry level contracts would subsidize O'Reilly's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 In Buffalo's case, yes. Reinhart and Eichel will be on entry levels. Don't think of it as how much you pay O'Reilly, but consider how much you are investing in the sum of your centers. Eichel and Reinhart's low entry level contracts would subsidize O'Reilly's. What happens in 3 years when you are in year 3 of O'Reilly's 6 year 8mil deal and Reinhart and Eichel are both up for renewal. Sure they are RFA's but if things are going right those guys will be getting 8yr deals worth a ton of money. Of course the good news is Murray would have traded away a ton of young talent so we wouldn't have to worry about those contracts coming due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 What happens in 3 years when you are in year 3 of O'Reilly's 6 year 8mil deal and Reinhart and Eichel are both up for renewal. Sure they are RFA's but if things are going right those guys will be getting 8yr deals worth a ton of money. Of course the good news is Murray would have traded away a ton of young talent so we wouldn't have to worry about those contracts coming due.Youre either implying Murray is going to trade one of Eichel, Reinhart, Risto for O'Reilly or that that's what we want. Nice. Trading for OReilly doesn't mean we're screwed 4ever in three years when we have to give each of our last three 1st round picks 10 mil a year cuz they're the best players in the league, and if it did, would it be that hard to trade a 27 year old ROR? 8 mil will only look smaller and smaller as those years go by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 What happens in 3 years when you are in year 3 of O'Reilly's 6 year 8mil deal and Reinhart and Eichel are both up for renewal. Sure they are RFA's but if things are going right those guys will be getting 8yr deals worth a ton of money. Of course the good news is Murray would have traded away a ton of young talent so we wouldn't have to worry about those contracts coming due. Fair point, but I'm not going to worry about it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 Youre either implying Murray is going to trade one of Eichel, Reinhart, Risto for O'Reilly or that that's what we want. Nice. Trading for OReilly doesn't mean we're screwed 4ever in three years when we have to give each of our last three 1st round picks 10 mil a year cuz they're the best players in the league, and if it did, would it be that hard to trade a 27 year old ROR? 8 mil will only look smaller and smaller as those years go by. I am saying one of Risto or Zemgus if not both could be part of a ROR deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 He wants the big bucks, he plays out the season and signs as a UFA. Very risky acquisition. You don't make the trade unless a extension is agreed upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 You don't make the trade unless a extension is agreed upon. Which means we can exclude the 21st overall pick from the conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 You don't make the trade unless a extension is agreed upon. Which puts any trade after July 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 Which puts any trade after July 1. But that's too long for the mouse potatoes to wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 Murray said he would trade a prospect and a late first for a pending UFA if he thought he could resign him. That's a very high price for a rental, but hardly Zemgus/Risto territory. O'Reilly has all the power in this. It's in the Avs best interest to re-sign him. If O'Reilly doesn't co-operate, he can steer himself to a team of his choosing by saying he's only willing to talk extension with certain teams. Avs have to say 'yes' if they want any chance of a return above your typical rental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 I'm suggesting a package that includes Ennis. There would have to be substantial assets to go along with Ennis. The Av's would still have to sell this to their fan base, letting O'Reilly go for "futures" on the heals of Stastny leaving, as was mentioned earlier, would be a hard sell. They need to to have someone that can be plugged in to the NHL roster and produce right away. Does Ennis get it done? I doubt it, problem is Ennis is the best the Sabres have to offer. If other teams, like the Oilers, want to get involved they can easily beat the Sabres best offer in a trade. I can see a player like Hall being very attractive to the Av's. As was mentioned earlier, the Av's are a team on a budget. Hall is a fixed cost at $6 mill through 2019-20. You're overvaluing O'Reilly a bit. Sure the Sabres don't have the best NHL pieces to offer and the Oilers could beat their deal if they used Hall... But so could Chicago if they used Toews but that's not happening either. Hall would required a lot more than O'Reilly. Do the Oilers have the assets behind their most valuable guys to get a deal done? Guys like Zadorov, Pysyk, Girgensons, Grigorenko, Moulson and Gorges aren't futures. They would play right away. Throw in a prospect and/or a pick with some combination of that and it's close. I am saying one of Risto or Zemgus if not both could be part of a ROR deal. You keep saying trying to slip in that it may include two guys like Risto and Zemgus, but it's not going to require both in any world. It may include Zemgus but so what? You have to give something to get something, and O'Reilly is certainly something. I believe he's unarguably a top-six forward at 24 years old. That's a nice player to have around. Also - Murray said after the Kane deal that guys like Zemgus, Zadorov, Risto and Foligno were off limits in the deal. We don't have a Myers to deal (I don't think Risto has any chance of being traded) but I'm sure he's got similar restrictions when dealing with a player who needs a new deal versus a cost-controlled Kane. Something like Zadorov, Foligno, Grigorenko and 21 might get it done. If that's the case I do it if we get an extension done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 Colorado is looking for a lhd top 4 D, we don't seem to have that, we only got Zadorov and McCabe who might be come that. But we don't have enough lhd ourselves so i say we move on from RoR. we got enough C/LW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 You're overvaluing O'Reilly a bit. Sure the Sabres don't have the best NHL pieces to offer and the Oilers could beat their deal if they used Hall... But so could Chicago if they used Toews but that's not happening either. Hall would required a lot more than O'Reilly. Do the Oilers have the assets behind their most valuable guys to get a deal done? Guys like Zadorov, Pysyk, Girgensons, Grigorenko, Moulson and Gorges aren't futures. They would play right away. Throw in a prospect and/or a pick with some combination of that and it's close. You keep saying trying to slip in that it may include two guys like Risto and Zemgus, but it's not going to require both in any world. It may include Zemgus but so what? You have to give something to get something, and O'Reilly is certainly something. I believe he's unarguably a top-six forward at 24 years old. That's a nice player to have around. Also - Murray said after the Kane deal that guys like Zemgus, Zadorov, Risto and Foligno were off limits in the deal. We don't have a Myers to deal (I don't think Risto has any chance of being traded) but I'm sure he's got similar restrictions when dealing with a player who needs a new deal versus a cost-controlled Kane. Something like Zadorov, Foligno, Grigorenko and 21 might get it done. If that's the case I do it if we get an extension done. I agree with all of this, except including Griggy with the other Sabres as real NHL players next year. Griggy could easily cement his washout status next year. In any case, you are right that there is NFW that Edmonton would trade Hall for ROR, and NFW that GMTM would trade both Risto and Zemgus for ROR. (That suggestion was like the bizarro world version of Roy-for-Malkin, btw.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deluca67 Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 You're overvaluing O'Reilly a bit. Sure the Sabres don't have the best NHL pieces to offer and the Oilers could beat their deal if they used Hall... But so could Chicago if they used Toews but that's not happening either. Hall would required a lot more than O'Reilly. Do the Oilers have the assets behind their most valuable guys to get a deal done? Guys like Zadorov, Pysyk, Girgensons, Grigorenko, Moulson and Gorges aren't futures. They would play right away. Throw in a prospect and/or a pick with some combination of that and it's close. You keep saying trying to slip in that it may include two guys like Risto and Zemgus, but it's not going to require both in any world. It may include Zemgus but so what? You have to give something to get something, and O'Reilly is certainly something. I believe he's unarguably a top-six forward at 24 years old. That's a nice player to have around. Also - Murray said after the Kane deal that guys like Zemgus, Zadorov, Risto and Foligno were off limits in the deal. We don't have a Myers to deal (I don't think Risto has any chance of being traded) but I'm sure he's got similar restrictions when dealing with a player who needs a new deal versus a cost-controlled Kane. Something like Zadorov, Foligno, Grigorenko and 21 might get it done. If that's the case I do it if we get an extension done. I would never even considering comparing Hall to Toews. IMO, they are not even close when it comes to a value of a player. I wouldn't give up Toews for Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle combined. Hall maybe a tad above O'Reilly in value, nowhere near the difference between Hall and Toews. You're not getting O'Reilly for a combo of Zadorov, Pysyk, Grigorenko, Moulson and Georges and some picks. If the Av's could do far better than Moulson and Georges in free agency. Not sure what value Grigorenko or Pysyk have at this point and Zadorov is a futures. The Av's will be selling what they will bill as a legit top 6 forward. They are going to want a top 6 forward or equivalent in return. Today, right now, the only top 6 forward the Sabres have is Kane and Girgenson. If the Sabres are going to acquire O'Reilly the price is going to hurt a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 I agree with all of this, except including Griggy with the other Sabres as real NHL players next year. Griggy could easily cement his washout status next year. In any case, you are right that there is NFW that Edmonton would trade Hall for ROR, and NFW that GMTM would trade both Risto and Zemgus for ROR. (That suggestion was like the bizarro world version of Roy-for-Malkin, btw.) I just threw Griggy in there because he's the hot name (especially with the Roy connection) and will be on an NHL roster next year. I would never even considering comparing Hall to Toews. IMO, they are not even close when it comes to a value of a player. I wouldn't give up Toews for Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle combined. Hall maybe a tad above O'Reilly in value, nowhere near the difference between Hall and Toews. You're not getting O'Reilly for a combo of Zadorov, Pysyk, Grigorenko, Moulson and Georges and some picks. If the Av's could do far better than Moulson and Georges in free agency. Not sure what value Grigorenko or Pysyk have at this point and Zadorov is a futures. The Av's will be selling what they will bill as a legit top 6 forward. They are going to want a top 6 forward or equivalent in return. Today, right now, the only top 6 forward the Sabres have is Kane and Girgenson. If the Sabres are going to acquire O'Reilly the price is going to hurt a bit. The Toews comment wasn't a comparison. It was hyperbole because saying the Oilers can beat our offer using Hall is the same as saying the Blackhawks can beat Edmonton's offer using Toews. It's true but won't happen. We also have Ennis as a top-six forward, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 I agree with all of this, except including Griggy with the other Sabres as real NHL players next year. Griggy could easily cement his washout status next year. In any case, you are right that there is NFW that Edmonton would trade Hall for ROR, and NFW that GMTM would trade both Risto and Zemgus for ROR. (That suggestion was like the bizarro world version of Roy-for-Malkin, btw.) I don't think GMTM would trade both of them. I am telling you one of them at least is going to be asked for. Also there is NFW to quote you that my suggestion was Bizarro. Either ROR is a top 6 forward worth top 6 money and top 6 trade value or he isn't. Top 6 value is 2 roster player, prospect, pick. So you are looking at Foligno, Zemgus, Risto, Bogosian, Zadorov (maybe), Ennis, Kane, Moulson. That is your list of roster players that might peak interest if you, as I believe you are, say ROR is a top 6 elite defensive forward. Pick two of them, and in a prospect (Grigorenko is still a prospect) and a pick. If I am Colorado, I want Zemgus or Risto back otherwise I shop ROR elsewhere. No reason not to help fix my team by offering up Foligno, Grigorenko and a 1st. Again. If ROR is a top6 player which I have been repeatedly told, then you have to pay top 6 prices. Or he isn't a top 6 player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 (edited) I don't think GMTM would trade both of them. I am telling you one of them at least is going to be asked for. Also there is NFW to quote you that my suggestion was Bizarro. Either ROR is a top 6 forward worth top 6 money and top 6 trade value or he isn't. Top 6 value is 2 roster player, prospect, pick. So you are looking at Foligno, Zemgus, Risto, Bogosian, Zadorov (maybe), Ennis, Kane, Moulson. That is your list of roster players that might peak interest if you, as I believe you are, say ROR is a top 6 elite defensive forward. Pick two of them, and in a prospect (Grigorenko is still a prospect) and a pick. If I am Colorado, I want Zemgus or Risto back otherwise I shop ROR elsewhere. No reason not to help fix my team by offering up Foligno, Grigorenko and a 1st. Again. If ROR is a top6 player which I have been repeatedly told, then you have to pay top 6 prices. Or he isn't a top 6 player. You are ignoring the contract situation and how it devalues O'Reilly. Also, how can there be any doubt O'Reilly is top-six forward? Can you name 50 forwards better than him, let alone 180? Edited May 18, 2015 by dudacek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 (edited) You are ignoring the contract situation and how it devalues O'Reilly. Also, how can there be any doubt O'Reilly is top-six forward? Can you name 50 forwards better than him, let alone 180? His contract does nothing until the trade deadline. Any team willing to trade for ROR this summer believes they can re-sign him. There are not actually 180 top 6 forwards in the league. Mathmatically you could argue that but how many top 6 forwards did we have last year? 2? Because of that you are counting more than there really are. I could argue that Chicago really only has 5 top 6 forwards. It isn't as simple as doing the math. A top 6 forward in Phoenix could be a bottom 3 guy on every playoff team. The actual number of true top 6 forwards around the league is probably 90. Of course ROR is said to be a top 3 by some but for argument at least is in the top percentile of the top 6 guys according to what I have read. So what is that worth to you? Is ROR worth 2 rostered guys, a prospect and a pick? _______________________________________________________________________________________________________ Keep in mind the 8mil price tag that seems agreed upon which makes ROR tied for 12th in the NHL for caphit. So a guy that we are willing to pay that kind of money to is only worth Zadorov, Grigorenko, and a pick... ? Hey Nfreeman, I found your Bizarro Roy for Malkin land. Edited May 18, 2015 by LGR4GM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deluca67 Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 IMO, any value lost due to O'Reilly's contract status would easily be made up due to O'Reilly being only 25 next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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