2015 NHL Playoffs -- Round 1

[PASabreFan]

Hoss, your RJ is better than mine, but I have that picture in a frame on my wall!

[Hoss]

Hoss, your RJ is better than mine, but I have that picture in a frame on my wall!

I decided I'm going to be using RJ photos all year as an avatar, and I like to scream at myself and others around here so it's perfect.

[darksabre]

I decided I'm going to be using RJ photos all year as an avatar, and I like to scream at myself and others around here so it's perfect.

It'd be cool if the whole forum did it.

[Hoss]

It'd be cool if the whole forum did it.

:wub:  :wub:  :wub: I got the warm fuzzies when I read this. What a grand idea.

[Doohickie]

Don't expect it to catch on.

[TrueBlueGED]

Yes, why evaluate a goaltender on how he plays when playoff survival is on the line? What would that tell us about how good he is? And who else but I would "deem" such games more important. Let's weigh Tuesday nights at home against New Jersey in November just as heavily.

Given what we know about the variability of save percentage from one game to the next, it's silly to attempt to draw conclusions about a goaltender based on any handful of games. If you want to argue elimination games are more important than every other game in the series, that's your business. And if you want to say Miller played poorly in the elimination games, that too, is your business. But saying Miller is a big mental wuss because of a few elimination games simply can't be supported by a small sample.

 

Then of course there's also the endogeneity problem where I'd be willing to bet that most goaltenders on the losing end of elimination games played poorly. Miller is probably one of the innumerable goaltenders with lesser numbers in elimination games they lose. So Miller is just one example of a larger trend, not that there's anything special about his mental and emotional capacity in pressure situations. For example, Rinne's save percentage last night was 875...is he mentally soft and unable to handle pressure? If not, why give him the benefit of the doubt and not Miller? Statistically, drawing conclusions from a 5 game goaltender sample is no better than 1 game.

 

My take: all playoff games have about equal pressure. Miller's playoff stats are equal to his regular season stats. I can find 5 random regular season games where he sucked and come up with some theory as to why...but the data simply won't support that theory because it would be abusing the stats and ignoring everything we know about goaltending performance.

I decided I'm going to be using RJ photos all year as an avatar, and I like to scream at myself and others around here so it's perfect.

Yea, but people actually like RJ :p

[qwksndmonster]

What's worse is that PA didn't give the stats for elimination games, he gave the stats for the elimination games Miller lost.  

[PASabreFan]

I decided I'm going to be using RJ photos all year as an avatar, and I like to scream at myself and others around here so it's perfect.

It would be a nice gesture, but, come one, the man isn't going anywhere. The Pergament article is near-confirmation. If I had to guess, Rick will do the bulk of the home games and select road games — let's say in the neighborhood of 35 games — after next season. And all home playoff games and any road games where a series can be clinched. Rick Jeanneret will be fine.

[Hoss]

Yea, but people actually like RJ :P

Hey I didn't say that we were identical twins. That nod goes to Rodney Dangerfield for RJ.

It would be a nice gesture, but, come one, the man isn't going anywhere. The Pergament article is near-confirmation. If I had to guess, Rick will do the bulk of the home games and select road games — let's say in the neighborhood of 35 games — after next season. And all home playoff games and any road games where a series can be clinched. Rick Jeanneret will be fine.

Not if his wife has any say in the matter.

[PASabreFan]

What's worse is that PA didn't give the stats for elimination games, he gave the stats for the elimination games Miller lost.  

Fair point. I can — and have — broken it down by games early in a series (Games 1-4) and late (Game 5-7). He breaks down as they go along.

 

Define elimination game and I will look it up. A game where either Miller's team or his team's opponent can be eliminated, or a game where only Miller's team can be eliminated?

Hey I didn't say that we were identical twins. That nod goes to Rodney Dangerfield for RJ.

Not if his wife has any say in the matter.

Are you close to the Jeannerets?

[SwampD]

Fair point. I can — and have — broken it down by games early in a series (Games 1-4) and late (Game 5-7). He breaks down as they go along.

 

Define elimination game and I will look it up. A game where either Miller's team or his team's opponent can be eliminated, or a game where only Miller's team can be eliminated?

Are you close to the Jeannerets?

That.

 

 

Somehow I know that Halak is 6-1 in elimination games. I guess it does matter and is okay to bring up to some people.

[Hoss]

 

Are you close to the Jeannerets?

Wouldn't say that by any stretch. A chance encounter led me to get to speak with and keep in touch with his wife Sandra (have only met and spoke with RJ twice). She's an awesome woman. His better half, for sure.

[qwksndmonster]

That.

 

 

Somehow I know that Halak is 6-1 in elimination games. I guess it does matter and is okay to bring up to some people.

The crazy juice in Halak's head thrives under pressure.  I've seen him play some out of this world games in the playoffs.  I specifically remember his run with the Canadiens a few years back.

[PASabreFan]

That.

 

 

Somehow I know that Halak is 6-1 in elimination games. I guess it does matter and is okay to bring up to some people.

Miller's regular season save % is .915. Brodeur's is .912. Who would you want in your Game 7?

[Eleven]

That.

 

 

Somehow I know that Halak is 6-1 in elimination games. I guess it does matter and is okay to bring up to some people.

 

Why not games where Miller's team OR THE OPPONENT can be eliminated?  That's what elimination game means.

[PASabreFan]

OK, I really wasn't trying to make Miller look bad. He did win four games where his team could have been eliminated, and he's played well, allowing four goals on 105 shots.

 

Factoring those four games into the six elimination games he's lost, his save percentage improves to .895.

Why not games where Miller's team OR THE OPPONENT can be eliminated?  That's what elimination game means.

I think the idea is to look at the effect of pressure. It don't think Blue believes in the idea. To him Game 1 has as much pressure as Game 7 for a goalie. I'm pretty sure he also believes a game where you can eliminate the other team has as much pressure as a game where you can be eliminated.

 

I'll break out Miller's performances in games where his team can eliminate its opponent. There will be some overlap, as Miller has played in two Game Sevens.

[Eleven]

OK, I really wasn't trying to make Miller look bad. He did win four games where his team could have been eliminated, and he's played well, allowing four goals on 105 shots.

 

Factoring those four games into the six elimination games he's lost, his save percentage improves to .895.

I think the idea is to look at the effect of pressure. It don't think Blue believes in the idea. To him Game 1 has as much pressure as Game 7 for a goalie. I'm pretty sure he also believes a game where you can eliminate the other team has as much pressure as a game where you can be eliminated.

 

I'll break out Miller's performances in games where his team can eliminate its opponent. There will be some overlap, as Miller has played in two Game Sevens.

 

I'll bet Holtby felt as much pressure yesterday as he will tomorrow.  Or what about a goalie who is 3-0 in a series, then 3-1.  Pressure on San Jose's goalie last year must have been unreal with four chances to close it out.

Edited April 26, 2015 by Eleven

[PASabreFan]

In eight games where Miller can close out a series for his team, his save percentage is .904. Record is 4-4.

[rickshaw]

Miller was not 100% healed from his injury and the coach played him anyway. He probably shouldn't have played but the fact he could play and he makes $6 million makes the decision to play him understandable, at least from the coaches view.

 

The Flames were good and honestly the series could've gone either way. I think the Ducks destroy the Flames, and the Canucks would've been a tougher matchup for the Ducks, IMO.

 

I hope the Flames don't lose to the Ducks though. 

 

Going back to Miller. The game wasn't on him, it was really on some of the poor defence in front. Bieksa is in decline, Hamhuis too and Sbisa is always a gamble back there. The Canucks need to play some younger guys and the off season will be interesting. But Bo Horvat, now this kid is a player. I believe the next captain of this team. What a hardworking, talented young player. BTW Sedins were dominate but not enough support. 

[qwksndmonster]

I was gonna ask about Bo.  Was he the Zemgus Girgensons of that draft?  Is he even better?

[Eleven]

Miller was not 100% healed from his injury and the coach played him anyway. He probably shouldn't have played but the fact he could play and he makes $6 million makes the decision to play him understandable, at least from the coaches view.

 

The Flames were good and honestly the series could've gone either way. I think the Ducks destroy the Flames, and the Canucks would've been a tougher matchup for the Ducks, IMO.

 

I hope the Flames don't lose to the Ducks though. 

 

Going back to Miller. The game wasn't on him, it was really on some of the poor defence in front. Bieksa is in decline, Hamhuis too and Sbisa is always a gamble back there. The Canucks need to play some younger guys and the off season will be interesting. But Bo Horvat, now this kid is a player. I believe the next captain of this team. What a hardworking, talented young player. BTW Sedins were dominate but not enough support. 

 

Didn't it have to do more with Lack falling flat than anything else?

[TrueBlueGED]

OK, I really wasn't trying to make Miller look bad. He did win four games where his team could have been eliminated, and he's played well, allowing four goals on 105 shots.

 

Factoring those four games into the six elimination games he's lost, his save percentage improves to .895.

 

I think the idea is to look at the effect of pressure. It don't think Blue believes in the idea. To him Game 1 has as much pressure as Game 7 for a goalie. I'm pretty sure he also believes a game where you can eliminate the other team has as much pressure as a game where you can be eliminated.

 

I'll break out Miller's performances in games where his team can eliminate its opponent. There will be some overlap, as Miller has played in two Game Sevens.

You're mostly right on where I stand on pressure. What I think you're missing, however, is the core of my position: we cannot accurately measure the effects of pressure on goaltender performance because the samples are tiny (even using a loose definition of pressure) and goaltender stats fluctuate wildly over small samples.

 

Even if I were to concede elimination games carry significantly more pressure than regular playoff games, it wouldn't get our debate any further, because we still can't measure the impact with any degree of confidence.

[dudacek]

Anytime a goalie lets in five you have to ask questions.

Not sure Miller looked weak on any of those.

The Canuck D on the other hand....

Edited April 26, 2015 by dudacek

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

You're mostly right on where I stand on pressure. What I think you're missing, however, is the core of my position: we cannot accurately measure the effects of pressure on goaltender performance because the samples are tiny (even using a loose definition of pressure) and goaltender stats fluctuate wildly over small samples.

 

Even if I were to concede elimination games carry significantly more pressure than regular playoff games, it wouldn't get our debate any further, because we still can't measure the impact with any degree of confidence.

 

I know a guy who always would get 100's on homework.....but 80 on the exams......

[JJFIVEOH]

Might not be able to place blame on Miller for all the goals, but he didn't get $6mil/yr to just stop the shots he should stop. If everybody had the perfect defense in front of them, life would be so much easier.