Trade: Myers, Stafford, Armia, Lemieux, + Low 1st for Kane, Bogosian, and Kasdorf

[X. Benedict]

I agree.  Everyone being best friends was never a necessary condition for winning.  I still think half of what we talk about re: "the off ice stuff" is just sports writers looking for stories.

Or as the lady says, just soap operas for men.

[sicknfla]

I understand your 2nd sentence, and agree in principle with the logic behind it. But your contention is that GMTM overpaid. And my counter is, in order to get Kane that is what you had to pay.

The tipping point for me is the first round pick. We can all say it was a late first rounder but it doesn't matter. Right now we have a bunch of prospects that we continuously talk about. None of those are first rounders. The impact of including that first round pick was only magnified when he threw the other one away for Lehner.

[LGR4GM]

I hated losing that 1st round pick. Could have had this guy:

http://lastwordonsports.com/2015/04/25/2015-nhl-draft-profile-25-jacob-larsson/

[qwksndmonster]

The tipping point for me is the first round pick. We can all say it was a late first rounder but it doesn't matter. Right now we have a bunch of prospects that we continuously talk about. None of those are first rounders. The impact of including that first round pick was only magnified when he threw the other one away for Lehner.

Uhhh... it being a late first rounder absolutely matters. You're saying the tipping point of the trade for you was a ~50% chance to get a player that will play in the NHL. That's ridiculous. Edited October 28, 2015 by qwksndmonster

[Derrico]

I hated losing that 1st round pick. Could have had this guy:

http://lastwordonsports.com/2015/04/25/2015-nhl-draft-profile-25-jacob-larsson/

It's a late first rounder.  In return we got a proven NHL goal scorer.  I realize we gave up other pieces as well but I'm not going to sit here and play the what if game on a guy that may or more than likely may not pan out in another 3 or 4 years.  FWIW Hockey Futures graded his probability of success as a D.  I'm going to say Kane's probability of Success (however they rank this I have no idea) as much higher than a D.

 

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhl-draft/2015-nhl-draft-results-round-1/

[Taro T]

Their GM does not make trades. For him to make this trade was because the situation had to come to a head. Injured or not. Like I said up thread I would have been more comfortable trading the assets that we did for players with less baggage.

Perhaps. Or, he might reeeaaaaly have wanted to make the playoffs last year, realized a broken Kane & an oft-injured Bogosian gave him less of a chance of doing that than a Myers that has a different skill set than Winny's other D-men & a Stafford playing for a contract gave him.

 

In order to complete a trade, you need to offer what the other GM thinks his guy/guys are worth AND more than 28 other guys will offer (realizing that there is a bit of a premium placed on trades closer to home). The players the Sabres got have flaws but very high ceilings; the players the Jets got have flaws and (except for Myers, whose ceiling lowers yearly) not quite as high ceilings. Both teams got what they needed.

 

Personally, unless the 2 new Sabres remain infirmary-bound, I'd say the trade was win/win & the deal doesn't happen w/out that 1st going to Winnipeg. IF all are healthy, and everybody plays to their expected level, the Sabres got the best & 3rd best players & Winnipeg got 2nd & 4th, a likely career AHLer, a prospect w/ possible issues that projects to 3rd liner, & a very late 1st round pick. At the time the trade happened, Armia was not valuable & Lemieux' value wasn't sky high either. It's not like the Sabres gave up Reinhart & more as filler to make this trade happen. They gave up 3 extremely replaceable assets to make it go.

[LGR4GM]

It's a late first rounder.  In return we got a proven NHL goal scorer.  I realize we gave up other pieces as well but I'm not going to sit here and play the what if game on a guy that may or more than likely may not pan out in another 3 or 4 years.  FWIW Hockey Futures graded his probability of success as a D.  I'm going to say Kane's probability of Success (however they rank this I have no idea) as much higher than a D.

 

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhl-draft/2015-nhl-draft-results-round-1/

Absolutely.  I am fine with what happened but I still wish we could have used that pick.

[sicknfla]

Uhhh... it being a late first rounder absolutely matters. You're saying the tipping point of the trade for you was a ~50% chance to get a player that will play in the NHL. That's ridiculous.

That didn't seem to be the minsdet when we were unloading proven NHL talent the last 3 years. We acted like getting a first round pick was like hitting the jackpot. Then we start unloading them and we justify it with "what are the odds - the guy probably wouldn't make it anyways". Sometimes this stuff cracks me up. Yet, our 2nd round pick, Guhle, is one of the guys we mention as the D of our future.

[qwksndmonster]

That didn't seem to be the minsdet when we were unloading proven NHL talent the last 3 years. We acted like getting a first round pick was like hitting the jackpot. Then we start unloading them and we justify it with "what are the odds - the guy probably wouldn't make it anyways". Sometimes this stuff cracks me up. Yet, our 2nd round pick, Guhle, is one of the guys we mention as the D of our future.

Whereas Karbacek and Cornell are hardly mentioned at all.

 

Why are you always bringing up flawed thinking of other posters to justify your own flawed posting? Why don't you think about what you type before you post it?

[sicknfla]

Whereas Karbacek and Cornell are hardly mentioned at all.

 

Why are you always bringing up flawed thinking of other posters to justify your own flawed posting? Why don't you think about what you type before you post it?

I think if you go back and read this entire thread you will see I never mentioned anyones posts as flawed. Thought they were good back and forth discussion. Then you post that my thinking that the 1st being a deal breaker was "ridiculous ". I then counter your theory on first rounders not being important and you attack my posts.

 

Just because we have different views doesn't mean either if us are right or wrong. They are just opinions. So to say i look at other peoples views as flawed and to read my flawed post before i post them is bush league on your part.

Edited October 28, 2015 by sicknfla

[qwksndmonster]

I think if you go back and read this entire thread you will see I never mentioned anyones posts as flawed. Thought they were good back and forth discussion. Then you post that my thinking that the 1st being a deal breaker was "ridiculous ". I then counter your theory on first rounders not being important and you attack my posts.

I'm not talking about this thread, I'm talking about you. You've been insufferable this season. Your posting lapses into a familiar pattern.

 

1) Suggest something wholly negative.

(other posters call you out)

2) Defend yourself by mentioning the flawed reasoning that "a lot(90%)" of other posters use/would be using.

3) Repeat.

 

I like having alternate viewpoints. PA and Ghost are two of my favorite posters. I like alternative viewpoints to come from logical thought, not pure emotion.

 

You're not even necessarily wrong most of the time, but you post as if you've seen the next 3 years in the flames and know exactly what's going to happen. And it's negative.

Edited October 28, 2015 by qwksndmonster

[sicknfla]

I'm not talking about this thread, I'm talking about you. You've been insufferable this season. Your posting lapses into a familiar pattern.

 

1) Suggest something wholly negative.

(other posters call you out)

2) Defend yourself by mentioning the flawed reasoning that "a lot(90%)" of other posters use/would be using.

3) Repeat.

 

I like having alternate viewpoints. PA and Ghost are two of my favorite posters. I like alternative viewpoints to come from logical thought, not pure emotion.

 

You're not even necessarily wrong most of the time, but you post as if you've seen the next 3 years in the flames and know exactly what's going to happen. And it's negative.

That is fine. I annoy you just like the poster that everytime Eichel touches the puck tells us how great he is. Or the poster that when we score "loves this team" blah blah blah. I don't call that person out. I simply take it as we ate all different. You, on the other hand take it to a personal level.

 

I am not in a popularity contest. A lot of my posts stir debate and I am fine with being looked at as the guy that stirs the pot sometime. Personally the last few days we have had good back and forth discussion with everyone being civalized. So, if attacking me personally and what i add to the forum is what you want to add to the forum then have at it.

[qwksndmonster]

That is fine. I annoy you just like the poster that everytime Eichel touches the puck tells us how great he is. Or the poster that when we score "loves this team" blah blah blah. I don't call that person out. I simply take it as we ate all different. You, on the other hand take it to a personal level.

 

I am not in a popularity contest. A lot of my posts stir debate and I am fine with being looked at as the guy that stirs the pot sometime. Personally the last few days we have had good back and forth discussion with everyone being civalized. So, if attacking me personally and what i add to the forum is what you want to add to the forum then have at it.

It's cute that you think you're creating good discussion. What I've seen is quality posters giving you way more patience than you deserve.

 

By the way, you did the pointing out others' flawed posting thing again.

[nfreeman]

The tipping point for me is the first round pick. We can all say it was a late first rounder but it doesn't matter. Right now we have a bunch of prospects that we continuously talk about. None of those are first rounders. The impact of including that first round pick was only magnified when he threw the other one away for Lehner.

 

Whoa.  This conclusion is completely unjustified.  He's played less than 1 game for the Sabres. 

 

And, BTW, the other 2 goalies that were the flavor-of-the-month this past offseason (Talbot and Lack) aren't doing much either.  Talbot is the starter on Edmonton and has mediocre numbers, while Lack is the backup on a lousy Carolina team.

 

That didn't seem to be the minsdet when we were unloading proven NHL talent the last 3 years. We acted like getting a first round pick was like hitting the jackpot. Then we start unloading them and we justify it with "what are the odds - the guy probably wouldn't make it anyways". Sometimes this stuff cracks me up. Yet, our 2nd round pick, Guhle, is one of the guys we mention as the D of our future.

 

No.  This is weak.  "We" didn't do anything on this board.  Some posters thought a certain way about trades and draft picks and other posters thought otherwise.

 

Whereas Karbacek and Cornell are hardly mentioned at all.

 

Why are you always bringing up flawed thinking of other posters to justify your own flawed posting? Why don't you think about what you type before you post it?

 

It's cute that you think you're creating good discussion. What I've seen is quality posters giving you way more patience than you deserve.

 

By the way, you did the pointing out others' flawed posting thing again.

 

OK -- time to take it down a notch.

[sicknfla]

It's cute that you think you're creating good discussion. What I've seen is quality posters giving you way more patience than you deserve.

 

By the way, you did the pointing out others' flawed posting thing again.

The old me would have kept this going. No point.

Whoa. This conclusion is completely unjustified. He's played less than 1 game for the Sabres.

 

And, BTW, the other 2 goalies that were the flavor-of-the-month this past offseason (Talbot and Lack) aren't doing much either. Talbot is the starter on Edmonton and has mediocre numbers, while Lack is the backup on a lousy Carolina team.

 

 

No. This is weak. "We" didn't do anything on this board. Some posters thought a certain way about trades and draft picks and other posters thought otherwise.

 

 

 

 

"We" is a good amount of posters who everytime we made a deal that included a first round pick felt that pick was very valuable. Now many of those same posters go completely opposite when it is brought up that maybe we should have been a little more frugal with the ones we got rid of.

 

I have beat the fact I think Murray has done an inadequate job enough. It is too early to tell for sure. It isn't too early to critique the early results.

[dudacek]

Whoa. This conclusion is completely unjustified. He's played less than 1 game for the Sabres.

 

And, BTW, the other 2 goalies that were the flavor-of-the-month this past offseason (Talbot and Lack) aren't doing much either. Talbot is the starter on Edmonton and has mediocre numbers, while Lack is the backup on a lousy Carolina team.

And the fourth goalie in that market - the one whose resume most closely resembled Lehner's - went for a (potentially) higher first rounder than we paid for Lehner, Martin Jones.

 

Ottawa had a better offer on the table than pick 31. By giving pick 21, Murray paid market value.

It will take a few years to determine if Lehner justifies his faith.

Edited October 28, 2015 by dudacek

[3putt]

I'm not talking about this thread, I'm talking about you. You've been insufferable this season. Your posting lapses into a familiar pattern.

 

1) Suggest something wholly negative.

(other posters call you out)

2) Defend yourself by mentioning the flawed reasoning that "a lot(90%)" of other posters use/would be using.

3) Repeat.

 

I like having alternate viewpoints. PA and Ghost are two of my favorite posters. I like alternative viewpoints to come from logical thought, not pure emotion.

 

You're not even necessarily wrong most of the time, but you post as if you've seen the next 3 years in the flames and know exactly what's going to happen. And it's negative.

 

Whoa.  This conclusion is completely unjustified.  He's played less than 1 game for the Sabres. 

 

And, BTW, the other 2  2 of the 3 goalies that were the flavor-of-the-month this past offseason (Talbot and Lack) aren't doing much either.  Martin Jones was on fire. Talbot is the starter on Edmonton and has mediocre numbers, while Lack is the backup on a lousy Carolina team.

 

 

No.  This is weak.  "We" didn't do anything on this board.  Some posters thought a certain way about trades and draft picks and other posters thought otherwise.

 

 

 

OK -- time to take it down a notch.

Fixed.

And the fourth goalie in that market - the one whose resume most closely resembled Lehner's - went for a (potentially) higher first rounder than we paid for Lehner, Martin Jones.

 

Ottawa had a better offer on the table than pick 31. By giving pick 21, Murray paid market value.

It will take a few years to determine if Lehner justifies his faith.

But I think this is Sick's point.  If you like the trade, the pick isn't valuable because low first rounders are 50/50.  If you would have liked the alternative, Jones, it cost too much i.e. a higher pick.  Sick stated he thought the overall package in the Kane deal was excessive in his opinion due the inclusion of the first rounder.  To flame him with the 50/50 argument is capricious at best.  

[sicknfla]

Fixed.

 

But I think this is Sick's point. If you like the trade, the pick isn't valuable because low first rounders are 50/50. If you would have liked the alternative, Jones, it cost too much i.e. a higher pick. Sick stated he thought the overall package in the Kane deal was excessive in his opinion due the inclusion of the first rounder. To flame him with the 50/50 argument is capricious at best.

Yes. Thanks

[Thorny]

I don't think anybody is going to lose sleep over Tyler Myers. That isn't the point. The point, at least from my perspective, is did Murray maximize his return for the 5 assets he sent to Winnipeg? When doing a complete rebuild and you only have limited assets to trade that will makeover your team do you do it for question marks? If Bogo continues to stay injury prone and Kane ends up being the guy that nobody on his previous team could stand WE ARE SCREWED!!

 

Same with Lehner. He has done nothing to this point in his career to warrant a first round pick. Murray did that deal on potential. Again, you are gambling limited assets. I understand drafting is gambling - but I just can't help to think a more experienced GM could have done more with what we had.

 

Eichel and Reinhart are easy. Guiding a team too last place doesn't get you GM of the year in my book. I think ROR is great. After that everything Murray has done gets dicey to me.

 

We are a better team. We are more exciting. We freaking should be! We just spent 2 years watching two of the worse teams in NHL history.

 

To the bolded, ridiculous. Murray is building a team. While it would certainly be a blow if both Bogosian and Kane fail to pan out, to say we would then be screwed is bordering on chicken-little like.

 

If we're going to overreact to small sample sizes for Kane and Bogo can I do it with the pieces we moved?

 

Myers has 2 assists and is a -5 in 9 games for the Jets this season.  On a team with a 5-3-1 record and scoring more than the opposition, nobody would be happy with his +/- rating.  We all know Myers flashes of brilliance but we also know where he struggles and at this age I doubt he can correct them at this point.

Stafford has had a nice start to the year scoring 5 times and adding 2 assists in 9 games.  I still don't give much value in this piece of the trade as he was an expiring UFA and was never going to sign back here anyway.

Joel Armia is now in his FIFTH season post draft and has 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 AHL games this year and sits at a -1.  He is dangerously close to being a career AHLer at this point.  This was/is the season he has to prove he belongs and he has not shown that as of yet.  Looking like the odds are more than 50/50 that he may never.

Lemieux has 0 points and is a -6 in the 3 games he's played back in Barrie.  Best case for him IMO is he may turn into a nice third line player.  Worst case?  Well we know the history of former 2nd round picks and success in the NHL.

The 25th pick in the draft?  They don't hit that often.  Here is a historical list of the 25th overall picks.  You have to go back almost a decade to find a good one.  http://www.mynhldraft.com/nhl-draft-picks/25th-overall/250509/

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't think GMTM overpaid or 'lost' the trade or whatever you want to call it looking at things today.  In two to three years we will have a much better picture.

 

Stay out of here with your "facts" and "reason".

 

The tipping point for me is the first round pick. We can all say it was a late first rounder but it doesn't matter. Right now we have a bunch of prospects that we continuously talk about. None of those are first rounders. The impact of including that first round pick was only magnified when he threw the other one away for Lehner.

 

Again, as others have said, if the tipping point for you is a single late round 1st, I don't know what to tell you. The value different posters do or do not prescribe to a late first is superfluous at this point. I have a hard time seeing how a single draft pick in that range could ever be enough to swing a trade with that many pieces in one direction or the other.

 

Honestly, I understand where qwksndmonster is coming from. I am still relatively new here, so my perspective on this can certainly be taken with a grain of salt, but you are the only poster here who, when I see your name come up, I start to dread the forthcoming negativity. Obviously dissenting opinions are welcome and can certainly add to the discussion, but your posts sometimes seem to, in my view, lack balance. They aren't poorly written or anything like that, you seem like a really smart guy. But they read sometimes like they are negative for the sake of being negative, with quick judgments that don't leave much room for discussion. 

 

Forgive me if I've completely misread your intent.

[sicknfla]

To the bolded, ridiculous. Murray is building a team. While it would certainly be a blow if both Bogosian and Kane fail to pan out, to say we would then be screwed is bordering on chicken-little like.

 

 

Stay out of here with your "facts" and "reason".

 

 

Again, as others have said, if the tipping point for you is a single late round 1st, I don't know what to tell you. The value different posters do or do not prescribe to a late first is superfluous at this point. I have a hard time seeing how a single draft pick in that range could ever be enough to swing a trade with that many pieces in one direction or the other.

 

Honestly, I understand where qwksndmonster is coming from. I am still relatively new here, so my perspective on this can certainly be taken with a grain of salt, but you are the only poster here who, when I see your name come up, I start to dread the forthcoming negativity. Obviously dissenting opinions are welcome and can certainly add to the discussion, but your posts sometimes seem to, in my view, lack balance. They aren't poorly written or anything like that, you seem like a really smart guy. But they read sometimes like they are negative for the sake of being negative, with quick judgments that don't leave much room for discussion.

 

Forgive me if I've completely misread your intent.

I don't take offense to your thoughts. I will be the first person to admit that i tend to post in a negative light. I guess a part of me is just used to (and usually getting) the worse from Buffalo teams. My guess is both you and Quick are young. Actually, I know Quick is young because i saw his pic in another thread (part of the reason i didn't debate with him more). That being said we may share a different perspective.

 

Everyone on here is different. Some are overly exuberant and act like every goal is a Cup winner. Some are middle of the road and some are negative (weary). I can tell you the group that is a little more apt to be not so gung ho (PA, JJ, Robviously, Ghost, and a few others) treat the others with far greater respect than the group who thinks everything is peaches and cream. That group tends to take things personal. You are new so take the time to get a feel for everyone. There are clicks in here. Some need to be a part of a click - I don't.

[beerme1]

That is fine. I annoy you just like the poster that everytime Eichel touches the puck tells us how great he is. Or the poster that when we score "loves this team" blah blah blah. I don't call that person out. I simply take it as we ate all different. You, on the other hand take it to a personal level.

 

I am not in a popularity contest. A lot of my posts stir debate and I am fine with being looked at as the guy that stirs the pot sometime. Personally the last few days we have had good back and forth discussion with everyone being civalized. So, if attacking me personally and what i add to the forum is what you want to add to the forum then have at it.

 

I don't take offense to your thoughts. I will be the first person to admit that i tend to post in a negative light. I guess a part of me is just used to (and usually getting) the worse from Buffalo teams. My guess is both you and Quick are young. Actually, I know Quick is young because i saw his pic in another thread (part of the reason i didn't debate with him more). That being said we may share a different perspective.

 

Everyone on here is different. Some are overly exuberant and act like every goal is a Cup winner. Some are middle of the road and some are negative (weary). I can tell you the group that is a little more apt to be not so gung ho (PA, JJ, Robviously, Ghost, and a few others) treat the others with far greater respect than the group who thinks everything is peaches and cream. That group tends to take things personal. You are new so take the time to get a feel for everyone. There are clicks in here. Some need to be a part of a click - I don't.

 

 

So why I'm responding I don't know because I'm willing to bet that given a choice between Regier and Murray, you pick Regier. Ewwww.

 

Personally I'm sick of losing and paying for the worst hockey I've ever seen in my life the last few years. That chit is gone! Thanks to picks, trades etc You also seem to overlook Hudson Fasching in your thoughts as well as our others.

 

 

Your right about there being cliques in here though. In fact,

Team Storm Cloud has gone dormant it seems. Looks like there's a new Sherriff in town though.

 

Good night and have a pleasant tomorrow.

[Thorny]

Fair enough. But I don't think it is right to imply that younger posters as a whole are both more likely to be "overly exuberant" and also disrespectful to their older Sabrespace comrades. From my experience here, and I had been reading long before I started posting, generally, posters here are respectful of their fellows, regardless of the age of the poster in question. You are correct of course that those who may not be so, to use your term, "gung ho", do usually go about it in a respectful manner.

 

I probably agree with PA about half of the time, but I enjoy reading his posts all of the time. I don't read his posts as if he is ever negative for the sake of being negative. I'm glad you didn't take offense to what I said, as I did mean none. But I do think you, as you readily admitted, tend to post in a negative light. What I would argue is that while you freely admit you are posting in a negative light, I bet some others who make "negative" posts would argue they are posting in a "truthful" light, and that they themselves might not claim to be actively posting negatively. That is just a guess though, and I could be way off.

 

As for me, I am the age my profile says I am. Whether you consider that young I am not sure, but I will say that I like anyone else, do have my fair share of "downer" thoughts sometimes, but I consciously try to post in a hopeful way, whenever I can, because that's just the outlook I try to perpetuate. Obviously that's just my choice and everyone is free to use the style they so choose. I don't think I am naive because of my age. I have suffered a lot of disappointment over the years with the Sabres, even if not as much as some of the older fans here.

 

My dad is as big of a Sabres fan as I am, and he has to sometimes remind me to keep positive. So I don't think that with age has to come pessimism. :)

[dudacek]

Fixed.

But I think this is Sick's point. If you like the trade, the pick isn't valuable because low first rounders are 50/50. If you would have liked the alternative, Jones, it cost too much i.e. a higher pick. Sick stated he thought the overall package in the Kane deal was excessive in his opinion due the inclusion of the first rounder. To flame him with the 50/50 argument is capricious at best.

 

I think low first-rounders are valuable.

If you keep them they have 50 per cent chance of giving you a solid NHL player.

If you trade them, they can get you a very good UFA to be, be the sweetener in a big trade for a proven NHLer, or bring in a talented but unproven young goalie with good to elite potential.

This disconnect here is some here rank Lehner as the equivalent of Lack and Talbot, while Murray sees him more like John Gibson or Vasilevsky.

 

Many people subscribe to the theory that the team that gets the best player wins the deal.

In all three of his major deals this year, Murray gave up maybes for more proven talent after targeting specific players he thinks can be core assets. Quantity for quality.

If he judged the players correctly, he will win the deals.

Edited October 29, 2015 by dudacek

[Doohickie]

Your right about there being cliques in here though. In fact,

Team Storm Cloud has gone dormant it seems. Looks like there's a new Sherriff in town though.

 

Good night and have a pleasant tomorrow.

I have internet asberger's. I remember hearing about Team Stormcloud but I don't know if I really knew what that was about or who the big stormclouders were. I've been posting here for years and I barely know anyone. Just freeman, cuz he yells at me.

[Derrico]

I have internet asberger's. I remember hearing about Team Stormcloud but I don't know if I really knew what that was about or who the big stormclouders were. I've been posting here for years and I barely know anyone. Just freeman, cuz he yells at me.

It was equivalent to the civil war in here.  Let's never forget and not go down that path again.....