shrader Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 Ah. While I noticed that I didn't quite think of that technically fitting since really the conversation should be about losing the lottery two consecutive times. What are the chances of the Sabres losing the lottery two times in a row, assuming they finish dead last? 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 What are the chances of the Sabres losing the lottery two times in a row, assuming they finish dead last? 80%. We prefer to be glass one fifths full people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 What are the chances of the Sabres losing the lottery two times in a row, assuming they finish dead last? 80%. 60%. Just multiply the probabilities. In this case it's .8 x .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 60%. Just multiply the probabilities. In this case it's .8 x .75 Your scenario assumes that we can magically go back in time and not know that they already lost the lottery last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted April 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 60%. Just multiply the probabilities. In this case it's .8 x .75 The bolded is correct, but your math is off. It is 0.8 * 1.0 = 0.8. (Assuming the Sabres get the 2 of 12 they need.) We know w/ 100% certainty that the Sabres lost last year's lottery; so the probability of losing twice ends up 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabrestrike Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 60%. Just multiply the probabilities. In this case it's .8 x .75 It's 80%, because we already lost the lottery last year. No need to calculate the odds of us losing something that was already lost. And by the way, losing the lottery last year was kind of immaterial. It seems as though we would have picked Reinhart anyway. The unfortunate thing wasn't losing the lottery, it was that the draft was a weak one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 (edited) The bolded is correct, but your math is off. It is 0.8 * 1.0 = 0.8. (Assuming the Sabres get the 2 of 12 they need.) We know w/ 100% certainty that the Sabres lost last year's lottery; so the probability of losing twice ends up 80%.That's the chances that they lose it again (meaning the chances they lose it this year) but not the chances that they lose it twice consecutively independent of known past results. The chances of losing two consecutive lotteries with the chances of 75% in one and 80% in the other is 60%. The chances of losing it a second time after already losing one is obviously just the odds you already had at losing the current one. Edited April 6, 2015 by Tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny DangerFace Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 The probability we lose two straight times doesn't take into account last year! It's just the odds this year (Just annoying you all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted April 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 That's the chances that they lose it again (meaning the chances they lose it this year) but not the chances that they lose it twice consecutively independent of known past results. :huh: But past results are known and should be factored in. If you don't agree, I have a bunch of old lottery tickets that I'll sell to you for cheap. They're almost as good as new ones, they just have 1 fewer chances to win. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 :huh: But past results are known and should be factored in. If you don't agree, I have a bunch of old lottery tickets that I'll sell to you for cheap. They're almost as good as new ones, they just have 1 fewer chances to win. ;) What I'm saying really shouldn't be that confusing. I'm calculating the chances of losing two consecutive lotteries at those odds. It's not necessarily the Sabres or these two lotteries. Just two lotteries with those odds as if neither has happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 I will end this debate, which is way over my head anyway. The Sabres will not win the lottery this year. Therefore, the odds of them losing two in a row are 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 :huh: But past results are known and should be factored in. If you don't agree, I have a bunch of old lottery tickets that I'll sell to you for cheap. They're almost as good as new ones, they just have 1 fewer chances to win. ;) Do you use the same numbers every time? He just might take you up on your offer if each ticket is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyldnwoody44 Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 I will end this debate, which is way over my head anyway. The Sabres will not win the lottery this year. Therefore, the odds of them losing two in a row are 100%. I concur..... Eichel for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 (edited) Sigh... The few days I stayed away from here were much more peaceful. Didn't have people running around insulting everything I said just because it's different than what they're saying. Edited April 6, 2015 by Tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 (edited) Sigh... The few days I stayed away from here were much more peaceful. Didn't have people running around insulting everything I said just because it's different than what they're saying. Who insulted everything, or anything, you said. How is that even possible? No one insulted you, either. Edited April 6, 2015 by Sabres Fan In NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woods-racer Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 Sigh... The few days I stayed away from here were much more peaceful. Didn't have people running around insulting everything I said just because it's different than what they're saying. I'm not sure I've always agreed with you. But I hope I have never insulted. Funned with and made you laugh while disagreeing is always the best. Sorry you feel this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 Who insulted everything, or anything, you said. How is that even possible? No one insulted you, either. The lottery ticket comments were childish and insulting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 The lottery ticket comments were childish and insulting. Oh, please. Taro is not an insulter. He is a veteran poster who is always on the up and up. Did you not notice the wink emoticon in his post about the lotto tickets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 (edited) Oh, please. Taro is not an insulter. He is a veteran poster who is always on the up and up. Did you not notice the wink emoticon in his post about the lotto tickets? Was mainly an issue with shrader. Taro's post just showed that he didn't understand what I was saying. Shrader's follow up was an actual attempt at an insult. The jockeying around here to be as clever, funny and occasionally insulting gets old. Instead of just asking for clarification everybody reaches immediately into their bag of quips. Edited April 6, 2015 by Tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 Was mainly an issue with shrader. Taro's post just showed that he didn't understand what I was saying. Shrader's follow up was an actual attempt at an insult. The jockeying around here to be as clever, funny and occasionally insulting gets old. Instead of just asking for clarification everybody reaches immediately into their bag of quips. It's funny how none of it bothered anyone the past couple of days. Hmmmm, what changed? I was actually enjoying watching you both argue, even though you both understood it, but were saying different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew Amerk Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 I tried finding a YouTube video of this CHL fight, but was unsuccessful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 Was mainly an issue with shrader. Taro's post just showed that he didn't understand what I was saying. Shrader's follow up was an actual attempt at an insult. The jockeying around here to be as clever, funny and occasionally insulting gets old. Instead of just asking for clarification everybody reaches immediately into their bag of quips. Lets not clutter up the CHL thread on this day of all days with hurt feelings. Today we clench glory whole. Carry on, Carrion. We will clench glory whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 I look forward to the potential celebration around here if this ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 I look forward to the potential celebration around here if this ends We will party like we are the Knox Brothers in 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted April 6, 2015 Report Share Posted April 6, 2015 Was mainly an issue with shrader. Taro's post just showed that he didn't understand what I was saying. Shrader's follow up was an actual attempt at an insult. The jockeying around here to be as clever, funny and occasionally insulting gets old. Instead of just asking for clarification everybody reaches immediately into their bag of quips. I dropped one of my quips around here. Have any of you seen it? :flirt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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