Current Carrion Hockey League Standings

[Doohickie]

A couple thoughts...first, the Chicago game showed exactly why the tank is necessary because it shows the difference one great player can make. The Hawks were dead and trailing 3-2 with two minutes left and Toews scores twice?! Amazing.

 

Remember Captain Clutch?  Not the same level of talent or longevity, but geez Drury could bring it in the big situations.

[Hoss]

I decided to remove myself from here for a few days... Lurked but didn't post. Needed to calm myself a bit because I was going insane.

 

Really glad to be in the position we're in now... Not sold that this thing is over, but I wouldn't be sold that Buffalo was going to win the cup even up 5 with ten minutes to go in Game 7 either.

One more and it's over. Let's get it done Monday so we can go into the last back-to-back pulling for the "good guys" again. Really hoping Saturday is a no-worry game where the crowd can really show our players that we still love them and this team.

 

 

 

Also... Decided to do a new type of standings to get through the last week of the regular season: lottery standings.

 

Current lottery standings through games played 4/4 (using actual NHL standings)

Team         GP   PTS   ROW   PLP   CL%
Buffalo      79    52    14   1-2   20.0
Arizona      79    56    19   1-3   13.5
Edmonton     79    59    18   2-3   11.5
Toronto      79    65    25   4-5    9.5
Carolina     78    69    24   4-6    8.5

New Jersey   79    77    27   5-8    7.5

Philadelphia 79    82    29   6-12   6.5

Columbus     78    82    31   6-12   6.0

Colorado     79    84    27   7-12   5.0

Dallas       79    86    34   7-OUT  3.5

Florida      79    87    28   7-14   3.0

San Jose     79    87    35   7-OUT  2.5

Winnipeg     78    92    33   10-OUT 2.0

Ottawa       78    92    34   10-OUT 1.0

Los Angeles  78    92    37   10-OUT N/A

Calgary      79    93    39   13-OUT N/A

Boston       79    95    37   13-OUT N/A

Pittsburgh   79    95    38   13-OUT N/A

Vancouver    79    95    40   13-OUT N/A

Detroit      78    95    37   13-OUT N/A

Minnesota    78    96    40   13-OUT N/A

Washington   79    97    38   13-OUT N/A

NY Islanders 79    98    39   13-OUT N/A

 

PLP - Possible lottery positions (the numbers represent the lottery positions they could possibly finish)

CL& - Current lottery percentage

[TrueBlueGED]

I decided to remove myself from here for a few days... Lurked but didn't post. Needed to calm myself a bit because I was going insane.

 

Really glad to be in the position we're in now... Not sold that this thing is over, but I wouldn't be sold that Buffalo was going to win the cup even up 5 with ten minutes to go in Game 7 either.

One more and it's over. Let's get it done Monday so we can go into the last back-to-back pulling for the "good guys" again. Really hoping Saturday is a no-worry game where the crowd can really show our players that we still love them and this team.

 

 

I definitely thought you jumped :p

[Neo]

For my knowledgable friends. Should the draft wind its way down to say, the final two teams, what are the adjusted odds that 30 picks first? It's 20% at the first draw. I don't know the replacement mechanism, if any. It may be as simple as 20/33.5.

[Hoss]

For my knowledgable friends. Should the draft wind its way down to say, the final two teams, what are the adjusted odds that 30 picks first? It's 20% at the first draw. I don't know the replacement mechanism, if any. It may be as simple as 20/33.5.

 

Somewhere near 60% that the last place team got it and near 40% for the second to last.

[kas23]

I thought I read somewhere that the last place team has never lost the lottery 2 years in a row. So, if we lose the top pick again (assuming we finish last), the conspiracy theories can start.

[#freejame]

I thought I read somewhere that the last place team has never lost the lottery 2 years in a row. So, if we lose the top pick again (assuming we finish last), the conspiracy theories can start.

I posted something about that about a month ago, I'll see if I can find that link again.

 

Edit: Here's the link to the article, it's only happened once that the same team lost the lottery two years in a row (though they still picked first)  http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=18342

Edited April 6, 2015 by IrwinNelson

[Hoss]

I thought I read somewhere that the last place team has never lost the lottery 2 years in a row. So, if we lose the top pick again (assuming we finish last), the conspiracy theories can start.

 

The same team has only finished last in consecutive years three times since the lottery was implemented in 1995 (the 94-96 Senators, the 97-99 Lightning and the 09-11 Oilers).

 

The Senators picked first both times they were last -- once because LA won the lottery but could only move up four spots and once because they won the lottery.

The Lightning picked first in 98 despite losing the lottery (they had a trade that allowed them to swap spots) and won the lottery in 99 but had traded that pick away.

The Oilers picked first both times -- once because they won the lottery and the other because New Jersey won but could only move up four spots.

 

 

Hardly fuel for the conspiracy theorists if Buffalo doesn't win the lottery. Small sample size and a "dumb-luck" type of event that makes it hard to say what should and shouldn't happen. Especially considering the odds have changed.

Edited April 5, 2015 by Tank

[carpandean]

For my knowledgable friends. Should the draft wind its way down to say, the final two teams, what are the adjusted odds that 30 picks first? It's 20% at the first draw. I don't know the replacement mechanism, if any. It may be as simple as 20/33.5.

 

Well, there isn't any replacement, at all, because they pick one number and that's it.  If they reveal teams down through #3 and nobody has moved, then the conditional probability of the 30th team winning, given that the first 17th-28th did not is, as you guessed, 0.2/0.35.  Technically, though, the winning team has already been determined, so there is no longer any probability involved (no more random event, just an unknown constant.)

 

 

As for the previous history of 30th place teams, two things have changed in recent years that make that information even less relevant:

1) the probability of the 30th team picking first has been reduced from 25% to 20%

2) the 4-spot limit was eliminated

 

The chance of the 30th team picking first used to 48.2%, now it's 20%.

Edited April 6, 2015 by carpandean

[Hoss]

Current lottery standings through games played 4/5 (using actual NHL standings)

Team         GP   PTS   ROW   PLP   CL%
Buffalo      79    52    14   1-2   20.0
Arizona      79    56    19   1-3   13.5
Edmonton     79    59    18   2-3   11.5
Toronto      80    67    25   4-5    9.5
Carolina     78    69    24   4-6    8.5

New Jersey   79    77    27   5-8    7.5

Philadelphia 79    82    29   6-12   6.5

Columbus     78    82    31   6-12   6.0

Colorado     79    84    27   7-12   5.0

Dallas       79    86    34   7-OUT  3.5

Florida      80    87    28   7-14   3.0

San Jose     79    87    35   7-OUT  2.5

Winnipeg     78    92    33   10-OUT 2.0

Ottawa       79    93    34   10-OUT 1.0

Los Angeles  78    92    37   10-OUT N/A

Calgary      79    93    39   13-OUT N/A

Boston       79    95    37   13-OUT N/A

Detroit      79    95    37   13-OUT N/A

Pittsburgh   79    95    38   13-OUT N/A

Vancouver    79    95    40   13-OUT N/A

Minnesota    78    96    40   13-OUT N/A

NY Islanders 79    98    39   13-OUT N/A

 

PLP - Possible lottery positions (the numbers represent the lottery positions they could possibly finish)

CL& - Current lottery percentage

 

Washington clinched and was removed tonight. Minnesota can clinch and be removed from the list tomorrow with a regulation win.

[3putt]

I'll accept this nomination and I nominate, Eleven, Callaway and 3putt.

You must also kiss it once raised over your head.

I accept and nominate Neuvirth's Glove, Dudacek and Claude V

[calti]

if #30 doesn't win the lottery's 1st pick...then they sure as heck want it to be #29 which wins it. Then the odds for the #2 would be slightly over 50% at that point. Correct me if im mistaken.

[Hoss]

if #30 doesn't win the lottery's 1st pick...then they sure as heck want it to be #29 which wins it. Then the odds for the #2 would be slightly over 50% at that point. Correct me if im mistaken.

I'm not sure what you're getting at. This year's last place team has a 100% shot at second if they don't get the first pick.

[calti]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. This year's last place team has a 100% shot at second if they don't get the first pick.

oops......I blame it on jet lag---I think its more like #29 wants #30 to win rather than someone below them--increasing its odds for eichel to slightly over 50% Edited April 6, 2015 by calti

[Hoss]

oops......I blame it on jet lag---I think its more like #29 wants #30 to win rather than someone below them--increasing its odds for eichel to slightly over 50%

Still lost haha. If 30 wins then 29 gets 2 guaranteed.

[WildCard]

oops......I blame it on jet lag---I think its more like #29 wants #30 to win rather than someone below them--increasing its odds for eichel to slightly over 50%

 

Still lost haha. If 30 wins then 29 gets 2 guaranteed.

You're thinking about it from 30's perspective I think, and he's thinking about it from 29's. If the Sabres were in 29th, we would want the 30th place team to win if we didn't, so we could still pick second like you said. So if your 29th, you have 30th+29th %'s at winning McEichel

[Hoss]

The way it's worded seems to be that he's saying that if 30 wins the lottery then 29's odds at 2 goes a little over 50%. That's how I'm reading it at least.

[Thorny]

I posted something about that about a month ago, I'll see if I can find that link again.

 

Edit: Here's the link to the article, it's only happened once that the worst team two years in a row didn't draft first at least once.  http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=18342

 

Not sure I follow. Looking at the list, the last place team lost the lottery and didn't pick first 3 years in a row from 2012-14. And from 2000-2002, three years, last place lost the lottery and did not draft first. (Those particular 3 years are bookended with not-last-place teams getting first pick as well, but it's because they traded the pick: 1999 - Tampa finished last, got first pick, and traded it, 2003 - Carolina finished last, got first pick and traded it).

 

But that's still two blocks where last place didn't pick first for multiple years in a row.

[carpandean]

Not sure I follow. Looking at the list, the last place team lost the lottery and didn't pick first 3 years in a row from 2012-14. And from 2000-2002, three years, last place lost the lottery and did not draft first. (Those particular 3 years are bookended with not-last-place teams getting first pick as well, but it's because they traded the pick: 1999 - Tampa finished last, got first pick, and traded it, 2003 - Carolina finished last, got first pick and traded it).

 

But that's still two blocks where last place didn't pick first for multiple years in a row.

 

I think that he's saying that when the same team has been the worst team two years in a row, that team has never lost the first pick both years.  There were three such cases, two drafted first once and the other drafted first both times. 

 

Of course, the odds are the odds, completely unaffected by previous results. 

 

Under the old system, there was a  73.2% chance that such a team would pick first at least once.  Under the current system, there is only a 36% chance that they would.  However, that's before the two lotteries have occurred.  Now that the first one happened, if they Sabres hold on to 30th, there's just a 20% chance that they draft first in at least one (obviously, only one) of those successive years.

Edited April 6, 2015 by carpandean

[Taro T]

Current standings through games played 4/5.

 

 

Team         GP  L  W OT  PT MPP PR RPTC M# CPM

Buffalo      79 49 22  8 106 112  6   3   2 19.7

Arizona      79 47 24  8 102 108  6   7  11 13.4

Edmonton     79 43 23 13  99 105  6  --     11.7

Toronto      80 43 30  7  93  97  4  --      9.5

Carolina     78 38 29 11  87  95  8  --      8.4

Columbus     78 35 39  4  74  84  8  --      6.1

 

CPM per sportsclubstats.com and lottery weighting - last updated 3/28 in PM

 

3 teams in action. BJ's visit the Rags. Sabres host Candy Canes looking to lock up the trophy. 2 points turns the trick.

[Thorny]

I think that he's saying that when the same team has been the worst team two years in a row, that team has never lost the first pick both years.  There were three such cases, two drafted first once and the other drafted first both times. 

 

Of course, the odds are the odds, completely unaffected by previous results. 

 

Under the old system, there was a  73.2% chance that such a team would pick first at least once.  Under the current system, there is only a 36% chance that they would.  However, that's before the two lotteries have occurred.  Now that the first one happened, if they Sabres hold on to 30th, there's just a 20% chance that they draft first in at least one (obviously, only one) of those successive years.

 

Fair enough, that makes more sense. I guess I was just thrown off by the "it's only happened once" bit. In regards to the same team finishing last twice in a row, it's actually like you said, it has never happened that that team fails to draft first both times.

 

Edit: But yeah, obviously all this has no actual bearing on the lottery odds this year.

Edited April 6, 2015 by Thorny

[Hoss]

I posted something about that about a month ago, I'll see if I can find that link again.

 

Edit: Here's the link to the article, it's only happened once that the worst team two years in a row didn't draft first at least once. http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=18342

It's never happened (looking at your link)

[#freejame]

It's never happened (looking at your link)

You're right, Tampa lost twice, but since you could only move up four at the time, picked first.

[X. Benedict]

These are the times that try men's souls.

 

The summer player and the sunshine fan, in this crisis cannot shirk from service.

 

The Shart, like Hell, is not easily conquered.

 

- Thomas "I've watched this Season in" Paine

 

 

it. I'm taking one for the team. But why did it have to be Carolina.

 

- anonymous

 

 

Let's make this the last night of our ignominious fraternity. Let's clench the Shart, drink our Champagne, and like ranch-hands and rodeo cowboys meeting in line at Tim Hortons, forever henceforth remain faithful to the wives we've strayed from even if Mike Harrington continues to brand us with the Scarlet Sabres logo and shout "Adultery" while we are ordering our Timbits across the crowded cafe bake shop. Like Hester Prynne let us forever keep our Dignity while holding our baby McEichel close to our teet and experiencing the joy of letting our little one suckle inside the warmth of our rendered goat head and slug garments. We've dreamed in our waking moments brothers, and we've walked in our sleep.

 

May we clench tonight in this 6 bagger. May we clench and move forward as we forgive our younger selves for this night of the Carrion Cane.

Edited April 6, 2015 by X. Benedict

[Hoss]

You're right, Tampa lost twice, but since you could only move up four at the time, picked first.

Ah. While I noticed that I didn't quite think of that technically fitting since really the conversation should be about losing the lottery two consecutive times.