smj Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 (edited) Eichel is leading the NCAA in scoring across the entire country as a true freshman in a league wherr most freshman at already 20 years old. McDavid is playing against teenagers. 100pts in 38 games is impressive but what Eichel is doing is just as impressive IMO. Both will be dominant. Interesting point. What's odd is with the lottery, as I understand it, whoever comes in last only has a 20% shot at McDavid but an 80% shot at Eichel. So as soon as the season is over it will be pretty evident where Eichel is going (only one of two places but 4 to 1 to the last place team) whereas up in the air as to where McDavid will land. It would be helpful if Eichel turns out as good or better because the odds favor us getting him much more than McDavid. Edited March 1, 2015 by smj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Technically, it's ~20% shot at McDavid, and 100% shot at Eichel for the last place team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's 120%, little Ralphie Wiggam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calti Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's 120%, little Ralphie Wiggam. nope. before the lotto the last place team has a 100% SHOT at Eichel and an~ 20% SHOT at McDavid. After the lotto they still have a 100% shot at eichel. They have either a 0% or 100% shot at McDavid after the lotto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 (edited) That's 120%, little Ralphie Wiggam. See calti's explanation. His is indeed much more comprehensive. And just better. Very better, in fact. Edited March 1, 2015 by SiZzlEmIsTEr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calti Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 sunova.... First place has a choice, therefore the odds are not mutually exclusive until the choice is made. MY EXPLANATION IS BETTER! Yours is cleaner. But mine went into more detail. ^%$%^$%oilers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 sunova.... Yours is cleaner. But mine went into more detail. ^%$%^$%oilers Actually, see my edits. Mine is flawed. Woefully. I like yours. With butter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I am Defecting Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 So will we be picking "first" or "last." Where does irony end? What say we trade our draft pick for entire Stanley Cup winning hockey team? Since we are envy of entire NHL, it might make for a difficult decision. We may even finagle pick for trophy, 2015. Parade now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calti Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 anyhow, them oilers and esp zona are really playing for keeps now. this could get uglier and embarrassing.... So will we be picking "first" or "last." Where does irony end? What say we trade our draft pick for entire Stanley Cup winning hockey team? Since we are envy of entire NHL, it might make for a difficult decision. We may even finagle pick for trophy, 2015. Parade now? So will we be picking "first" or "last." Where does irony end? What say we trade our draft pick for entire Stanley Cup winning hockey team? Since we are envy of entire NHL, it might make for a difficult decision. We may even finagle pick for trophy, 2015. Parade now? its been 8 yrs since the sabres have been this interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I am Defecting Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 anyhow, them oilers and esp zona are really playing for keeps now. this could get uglier and embarrassing.... its been 8 yrs since the sabres have been this interesting. Germany White has been doing Get Out the Tank Campaign, so there is Big Hype. Actual message board activity... not so much. Anna would have been role player in old days. Tonight, she is on first line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Another angle to all of this is that if Buffalo ends up getting the 2nd or 3rd pick, they have the assets to move up if they feel the need. It would have to be a lot, but looking at the needs in ARI and EDM, they might be willing to move down if the return is significant. Think picks plus D prospects plus others.... Assets the Sabres have that EDM and ARI don't. So in my mind it's not over until the draft actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calti Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Another angle to all of this is that if Buffalo ends up getting the 2nd or 3rd pick, they have the assets to move up if they feel the need. It would have to be a lot, but looking at the needs in ARI and EDM, they might be willing to move down if the return is significant. Think picks plus D prospects plus others.... Assets the Sabres have that EDM and ARI don't. So in my mind it's not over until the draft actually happens.if we get the 2nd pick there is no moving up. no one is giving up McDavid.If we get the 3rd pick.....there is a microscopic chance of someone giving up eichel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 (edited) If the Sabres get the third pick, then GMTM has a huge trading chip there and would/should trade up and get a solid roster player or a tasty prospect out of it (plus a higher first, of course). The Sabres D corps is set for several years. I should add that, maybe it's me, but "up" to me means moving up in number (toward 30) and "down" means moving toward 1. It seems these terms are being used loosely here and I wonder if there's a standard everyone should follow. Edited March 1, 2015 by SiZzlEmIsTEr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 the standard is that moving up means getting a better pick. I've never heard anything otherwise. Number one is considered the top of the draft. Getting closer to it means moving up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny DangerFace Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 If the Sabres get the third pick, then GMTM has a huge trading chip there and would/should trade up and get a solid roster player or a tasty prospect out of it (plus a higher first, of course). The Sabres D corps is set for several years. I should add that, maybe it's me, but "up" to me means moving up in number (toward 30) and "down" means moving toward 1. It seems these terms are being used loosely here and I wonder if there's a standard everyone should follow. Up means moving towards number 1. Think about the nhl or nfl draft when teams make a trade. They try to move up to get a better draft pick, or move down in the draft to later rounds. The same with the term higher and lower. #1 is a higher draft pick than #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted March 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Current standings through games played 2/28. Team GP L W OT PT MPP PR RPTC CPM Buffalo 63 39 19 5 83 121 38 36 18.5 Edmonton 63 35 18 10 80 118 38 39 13.4 Arizona 63 36 20 7 79 117 38 40 13.0 Toronto 62 32 25 5 69 109 40 50 8.1 Carolina 61 30 24 7 67 109 42 52 9.0 Columbus 61 31 26 4 66 108 42 53 8.0 New Jersey 63 27 26 10 64 102 38 55 6.2 Philadelphia 63 25 27 11 59 97 38 60 4.5 CPM = Current probability of landing McDavid based off probabilities of finishing in a particular slot per sportsclubstats.com and lottery weighting - last updated 3/1 in AM On a night w/ a full slate the top of the leaderboard all kept pace. BJ's & Loafs only 2 in action today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 We must outtank DR and Arizona, we must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sicknfla Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 We must outtank DR and Arizona, we must. Liger is that you???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Liger is that you???? Yes... why lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crusader1969 Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 We must outtank DR and Arizona, we must. Strength of schedule definitely favors Arizona. only inter league games they play over the last 19 games is the two against Buffalo and 1 v NJ While Sabres still have games vs Toronto (2), Columbus, NJ and the two vs Arizona. if you look at the actual NHL standings - the avg Points of the Sabres remaining schedule is 67 while Zona is 72. The only way I see the Sabres winning the league is by having Arizona sweep the 2 head to head games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sloth Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Strength of schedule definitely favors Arizona. only inter league games they play over the last 19 games is the two against Buffalo and 1 v NJ While Sabres still have games vs Toronto (2), Columbus, NJ and the two vs Arizona. if you look at the actual NHL standings - the avg Points of the Sabres remaining schedule is 67 while Zona is 72. The only way I see the Sabres winning the league is by having Arizona sweep the 2 head to head games. This is still the NHL. If and when Stewart, Mitchell and possibly Neauvirth are gone, the season will be much like yesterday's game. Buffalo will not have enough true NHL level players to compete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 In honor of Tank Jeremy White @JeremyWGR 46s 46 seconds ago Tomorrow is gonna be Tankalicious. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 In honor of Tank Jeremy White @JeremyWGR 46s 46 seconds ago Tomorrow is gonna be Tankalicious. Book it. I saw them use the term the other day and wondered why I was in their mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 I hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 I saw them use the term the other day and wondered why I was in their mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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