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WildCard

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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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One player I'm becoming a bit more of a fan of now that I'm looking into him: Brett Hundley, the UCLA QB. Is not a system/running QB. Pocket passer who can improvise (yes please). Far better prospect than EJ Manuel is/was.

 

For comparisons sake (Manuel played 36 full games, Hundley has played 39):

 

Manuel had six games under 200 yards in his final year at FSU, Hundley had six his entire career at UCLA (including one game in which he got injured after four passes).

Hundley had 11 games with at least 3 TD passes, Manuel had 4.

These are very basic stats, but Hundley was clearly the more consistent of the two. Far more reliable.

 

 

Manuel's stats got worse as the games went on: just two TDs in the 4th quarter his final year to go along with two INTs. Just 64% completions in the 4th. Most rushing attempts of any quarter came in the 4th.

Hundley's stats got better as the games went on: His highest completion percentage, yards per attempt and rating were in the 4th quarter. Six 4th TDs were his second most of any quarter. Least rushing attempts of any quarter came in the 4th.

These stats show me that Hundley calmed down more and made plays in the pocket more often late in games. That's what you want out of a field general. He was at his best when it matters while Manuel was at his worst.

 

Completion percentage -- Manuel: 66.8, Hundley: 68.9

TD-INT ratio -- Manuel: 47-28, Hundley: 74-25

Hundley was asked to do more and did more. Made fewer mistakes while making far more plays than Manuel. He's got the talent to win games instead of just rely on a defense.

 

Statline versus ranked teams in their final season:

Manuel: 71-106 (66.9%), 853 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs

Hundley: 85-117 (72.7%), 1086 yards, 10 TDs and 2 INTs.

Big game? Go with Hundley.

 

 

Obviously this is essentially just running with stats to make a comparison. Not the greatest way to get it done, but the differences are so large that it's very clear who the better prospect is. Hundley is twice the prospect Manuel is.

 

It's no secret that Manuel just wasn't a good prospect coming out of college. He had a solid game, but he was never considered a high-end prospect at the position. Hundley has been up and down, but he's looking firmly in the late-first to second round right now. I would absolutely take him in the 2nd round if we really can't make a trade for a vet. I think Hundley has NFL potential where Manuel never really did.

 

The big knocks on Hundley are that his accuracy numbers are bloated due to relying on pre-snap reads where he locks onto somebody and throws. That's coachable. If he were inaccurate while having this issue I wouldn't touch him. You can teach somebody how to better read a defense. You can't teach them to go from terribly inaccurate to a guy who can make throws all over the field (Hundley has shown he can do it).

He's not the perfect prospect, but he's worth considering if he falls into the mid-second. Otherwise I'm not quite sure there'll be a guy worth it unless Petty falls to the 4th. Mannion will be worth a flyer late -- like the 5th or 6th.

 

Bring in a rookie and a vet to compete.

 

(Yes, it's Christmas. Yes, I'm "working." Yes, it's slow).

Edited by Tank
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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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People that think EJ is definitely a bust are loony.

 

Tank is loony. (love ya, bud)

 

I wouldn't be saying he's a bust if he was drafted where everybody expected and thought he should've been (3rd-4th rounds). I wouldn't have drafted him until the 4th.

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qwksndmonster All Star

qwksndmonster

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So you are going with "has potential" right up until he doesn't, then call him a bust?

Yes? Isn't that how it usually works? I still believe that EJ can develop into a decent Flacco-esque quarterback. Definitely not a good chance, but a chance.

 

I wouldn't be saying he's a bust if he was drafted where everybody expected and thought he should've been (3rd-4th rounds). I wouldn't have drafted him until the 4th.

You and Liger both.

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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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Yes? Isn't that how it usually works? I still believe that EJ can develop into a decent Flacco-esque quarterback. Definitely not a good chance, but a chance.

 

Flacco is a brutal comparison for EJ. Flacco relies on a major arm. EJ doesn't have that and it's not going to come up over night.

 

He doesn't have any particular skill that he can rely on. If he's going to become anything he's going to need to become Chad Pennington with legs.

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tom webster First Liner

tom webster

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I wouldn't be saying he's a bust if he was drafted where everybody expected and thought he should've been (3rd-4th rounds). I wouldn't have drafted him until the 4th.

 

You can keep saying it but it still won't be true. While most "experts" or at least those who pose as experts agreed he was a reach, there were those that liked the pick. It definitely wasn't everyone.

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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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You can keep saying it but it still won't be true. While most "experts" or at least those who pose as experts agreed he was a reach, there were those that liked the pick. It definitely wasn't everyone.

 

Okay. So a select few (including the normally fantastic Mike Mayock) liked it. It was still HEAVILY considered a major reach. There were rumors that other teams were interested (Cleveland and Philly) but not definitive indications that they were interested enough to pick him high.

 

The results so far are, no doubt, pointing towards bust. Some are ready to make the leap to bust (I am), others are holding out hope that he's learned something from the benching. We may or may not find out. I don't think this team can afford to rely on him making a gigantic leap following the benching. I'm completely fine with considering him in a camp battle. But bring in some SERIOUS competition.

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K-9 First Liner

K-9

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I wouldn't be saying he's a bust if he was drafted where everybody expected and thought he should've been (3rd-4th rounds). I wouldn't have drafted him until the 4th.

 

This is a myth and has been for a while. The entire off season after his senior year, Manuel had a meteoric rise up the charts, from his bowl win, the entire Senior Bowl practice week and game, to the combine, pro days and every private workout. By the time the draft arrived he was projected to go somewhere from 20-25 in the first round. The Eagles were strongly considering trading back into the first round to get him with another team, possibly the Jest, rumored to do the same. He was never considered less than a late first rounder by a consensus of the scouting community. This myth picked up steam because the Cowboys publicly said they had him rated as a 4th rounder and by the accepted knowledge that while he possessed every physical trait you'd want in a QB, he was still gonna be a developmental project in his transition to the pro game. He was never slated to start his first year but nobody expected him to outplay Kolb in camp and for Kolb to get injured and lost for the year. He's doing now what he should have been doing last season.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Flacco is a brutal comparison for EJ. Flacco relies on a major arm. EJ doesn't have that and it's not going to come up over night.

 

He doesn't have any particular skill that he can rely on. If he's going to become anything he's going to need to become Chad Pennington with legs.

 

EJ doesn't have arm strength? LOL!. You are the first person in history to hold that opinion. Arm strength is the very least of his issues.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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Posted (edited)

 

 

This is a myth and has been for a while. The entire off season after his senior year, Manuel had a meteoric rise up the charts, from his bowl win, the entire Senior Bowl practice week and game, to the combine, pro days and every private workout. By the time the draft arrived he was projected to go somewhere from 20-25 in the first round. The Eagles were strongly considering trading back into the first round to get him with another team, possibly the Jest, rumored to do the same. He was never considered less than a late first rounder by a consensus of the scouting community. This myth picked up steam because the Cowboys publicly said they had him rated as a 4th rounder and by the accepted knowledge that while he possessed every physical trait you'd want in a QB, he was still gonna be a developmental project in his transition to the pro game. He was never slated to start his first year but nobody expected him to outplay Kolb in camp and for Kolb to get injured and lost for the year. He's doing now what he should have been doing last season.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Now THIS is a whole lot of made up stuff. Sure, he was rising a bit due to his Senior Bowl week (which has proven time and time again to be a terrible time to change your evaluation of a player).

 

He was absolutely not projected to be in the mid-to-late first by just about anybody. NFL.com had him in the late 40s. SI and USA Today didn't have him in the first. None of the CBS Sports guys had him in the first. He just was never projected to be a first rounder by more than a handful of people, if that.

 

Manuel was the one beating the Eagles drum. He came out and said that the Eagles, Bills and Jets wanted him. None of those teams came out to confirm or deny that, because teams don't do it. There was never a rumor about them trading up. There were rumors that the Eagles were hoping to take him with their pick in the second round, but we never got to find out if they would've.

 

There was a handful of teams interested. We don't know how deep the interest was. For the most part he is considered a big reach and it's not a hindsight thing.

 

There was NEVER a point where he was a "consensus" first round pick. Looking at "grades" following the draft -- CBS Sports gave the Bills an F for the pick saying "What the heck are the Bills thinking? Did they watch this kid? He isn't Cam Netwon. This is a horrible move." SI called signing Da'Rick Rogers a good move and then labelled taking Manuel at 16 "the opposite" of the Rogers move. USA Today said they could've waited longer on Manuel and gave the class a D+ largely because of it. Mel Kiper said they squandered the good trade down by taking Manuel "which I simply thought was too high."

 

 

 

On your arm strength comment: there's a difference between having a strong arm and being able to throw the ball far. Manuel can do that. With absolutely no accuracy. He always throws the deep ball of his back leg and just lofts it as far and high as it can go. It's funny to watch, actually.

 

 

 

Yes, I will go to the ends of the earth to shake off the homer goggles on Manuel. I wish he could turn into something, but chances are not very good. He is a great guy, but he just doesn't have the talent. I talked myself into liking after the pick because... What else are you supposed to do? But the writing is on the wall here.

Edited by Tank
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K-9 First Liner

K-9

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Now THIS is a whole lot of made up stuff. Sure, he was rising a bit due to his Senior Bowl week (which has proven time and time again to be a terrible time to change your evaluation of a player).

 

Nope. That's right from the actual reports from several people I've know for nearly 40 years, three of whom currently working for two different teams in the league. Manuel aced his private interview with us, SD, Philly, Jax, that I know of personally and I suspect others as well. He blew everyone away with his ability to break down every play he was asked about, both on the whiteboard and in the film room. Lemme guess, you read a report that Florida State only allowed Manuel to "read half the field?" But the most absurd thing I've ever read about Manuel is your claim that he compares to Pennington in terms of arm strength. Pennington DID have questions about his arm coming out while Manuel has been lauded for his arm strength since high school, when he was considered a top 5 recruit.

 

I've spent too much time on the Bills forum discussing this and I don't feel compelled to redo that here. I also know that as an anonymous poster on the internet, you are free to believe I'm full of schit and that's OK. I offer this info for your edification, not mine. I'm quite comfortable in my assertion either way.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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Well, you can't argue against somebody that has inside sources, I guess.

 

Also, I'm not sure why you pointed out everything about him acing interviews. Nobody claimed he wasn't a smart kid. Reading the defense doesn't mean you can hit the open man.

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K-9 First Liner

K-9

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Well, you can't argue against somebody that has inside sources, I guess.

 

Also, I'm not sure why you pointed out everything about him acing interviews. Nobody claimed he wasn't a smart kid. Reading the defense doesn't mean you can hit the open man.

 

His ability to do well during the interview process is part and parcel to his rise up the draft boards, that's why I felt it was pertinent to the discussion.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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nfreeman Hall of Famer

nfreeman

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Posted

Hooray! Doing dumb ###### instead of what's best for the organization. I can't wait for all these goons running the team to be gone.

 

In that case I think you need to hope that the Pats beat the Bills, because I don't think anyone is getting fired if they finish 9-7.

 

(Which I think is the wrong result in this case.)

 

Separately: the whole "he was ranked lower/no he wasn't" series of posts is pretty GD useless without any links.

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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

 

 

In that case I think you need to hope that the Pats beat the Bills, because I don't think anyone is getting fired if they finish 9-7.

 

(Which I think is the wrong result in this case.)

 

Separately: the whole "he was ranked lower/no he wasn't" series of posts is pretty GD useless without any links.

 

I'll give you links, but K-9 has sources...

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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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Posted (edited)

SI lauds the signing Da'Rick Rogers undrafted as the best move, but says drafting Manuel at 16th as the opposite of that move...

http://www.si.com/nf...s-top-the-class

 

Mel Kiper:

The Bills hit needs, I just think they made a major reach with the biggest need of all, so that value gained from the added picks was in some ways squandered on Manuel. If you recall, the Bills traded down and added picks, but then they drafted Manuel at No. 16, which I simply thought was too high.

http://insider.espn....ue&refresh=true (Insider)

 

USA Today says the Bills could've waited to get Manuel...

http://www.democrata...grades/2120157/

 

CBS's Pete Prisco gives the Bills an F and says

What the heck are the Bills thinking? Did they watch this kid? He isn't Cam Newton. This is a horrible move.

http://www.cbssports...l-draft-round-1

 

 

 

ProFootballScout.com doesn't have Manuel in their top 100 (he lands at 137)

http://profootball.s...nid=124&yr=2013

 

Mike Mayock, who I remember speaking highly of Manuel, doesn't have him in his top 5 QBs

http://www.nfl.com/d...-2013-nfl-draft

 

SB Nation has Manuel at 99

http://www.sbnation....ard-top-200-100

 

CBS Sports has Manuel as the third best QB (these rankings aren't in order)

http://www.cbssports...ctrankings/2013

 

ESPN had him at 77

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/rankings/_/year/2013

Edited by Tank
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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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I wonder which sports have the most accurate mock drafts. Probably nba.

 

But just because these mocks say that, it's irrelevant and a pointless argument. We don't know where nfl scouts had him ranked.

 

Sure, we don't know with absolute certainty. But let's not act like these guys know nothing.

 

For instance:

In 2013, 26 of their top 32 ranked players were drafted in the first round. The rest went in the first 10 picks of the second round.

25 of Scouts top 32 went in the first round. They had Zach Ertz high and he's turned into a top TE.

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K-9 First Liner

K-9

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Posted

In that case I think you need to hope that the Pats beat the Bills, because I don't think anyone is getting fired if they finish 9-7.

 

(Which I think is the wrong result in this case.)

 

Separately: the whole "he was ranked lower/no he wasn't" series of posts is pretty GD useless without any links.

I'll give you links, but K-9 has sources...

SI lauds the signing Da'Rick Rogers undrafted as the best move, but says drafting Manuel at 16th as the opposite of that move...

http://www.si.com/nf...s-top-the-class

 

Mel Kiper:

 

http://insider.espn....ue&refresh=true (Insider)

 

USA Today says the Bills could've waited to get Manuel...

http://www.democrata...grades/2120157/

 

CBS's Pete Prisco gives the Bills an F and says

 

http://www.cbssports...l-draft-round-1

 

 

 

ProFootballScout.com doesn't have Manuel in their top 100 (he lands at 137)

http://profootball.s...nid=124&yr=2013

 

Mike Mayock, who I remember speaking highly of Manuel, doesn't have him in his top 5 QBs

http://www.nfl.com/d...-2013-nfl-draft

 

SB Nation has Manuel at 99

http://www.sbnation....ard-top-200-100

 

CBS Sports has Manuel as the third best QB (these rankings aren't in order)

http://www.cbssports...ctrankings/2013

 

ESPN had him at 77

http://insider.espn....ngs/_/year/2013

 

I understand the frustration of not getting the tell-tale "links" but they really don't apply here. And I don't care if you think I'm full of schit or not; I understand the nature of the disbelief in an anonymous internet forum. I have no desire to get into a tit for tat pissing contest, either. I go back nearly 40 years with some of these guys. We were editing tapes for scouts and coaches back when beta-max was cool for crissakes, so I'm more than comfortable with what they share with me, and I'm more than confident in my experience to interpret that information. But like I said, I only share it here to set the record straight because these guys put in thousands of hours trying to get it right on these kids coming out; all without an agenda. Unlike the "pundits" or the "insiders" on the click for traffic sights or even fans with their own agendas. A word of caution about the pundits and "draft gurus": they are often fed total crap by the community and often times they are shills for various agents out there. Take that for what it's worth.

 

Have a nice evening, gentlemen.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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Generally what these pundits here right before the draft is crap. But these guys are former scouts themselves (in Todd McShay's case a terrible one), so they have real inside sources, too. They know people. They know the process. They can evaluate. They don't get paid for nothing despite what the general public thinks.

 

Put your opinions on TV -- you'll end up looking like an idiot, too. You just won't be right as often as them. Nobody cares when you're right, tho.

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