JJFIVEOH Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Save percentage, enough said. In the last 3 years total, Miller-.918 Enroth-.916 One bad game out of nine and all of a sudden Enroth's back in the fans doghouse. It's probably Hecht's fault that the Sabres aren't scoring for Enroth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Save percentage, enough said. In the last 3 years total, Miller-.918 Enroth-.916 One bad game out of nine and all of a sudden Enroth's back in the fans doghouse. It's probably Hecht's fault that the Sabres aren't scoring for Enroth. How do you justify straight statistical comparison between two drastically different samples? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) How do you justify straight statistical comparison between two drastically different samples? They're not drastically different. Two different goaltenders, with the same GM, coach and team in front of them. It can't get any straighter. Edited January 25, 2014 by JJFIVEOH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristian Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 They're not drastically different. Two different goaltenders, with the same GM, coach and team in front of them. It can't get any straighter. They're drastically different because the samples vary greatly in size. Miller has played four games for every one game Enroth has played. That said, I don't think one bad game is enough to drive Enroth out of town. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 They're drastically different because the samples vary greatly in size. Miller has played four games for every one game Enroth has played. That said, I don't think one bad game is enough to drive Enroth out of town. Miller has 34 starts to Enroth's 15. Miller roughly 2000 minutes Enroth's 900. Enroth is getting his chances. Hard to complain about those minutes as a number 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristian Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Miller has 34 starts to Enroth's 15. Miller roughly 2000 minutes Enroth's 900. Enroth is getting his chances. Hard to complain about those minutes as a number 2. But he was talking over the past 3 years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 But he was talking over the past 3 years? gotcha. Thanks. Coffee is still brewing for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristian Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 gotcha. Thanks. Coffee is still brewing for me. You're well excused, can't remember my first name before the first cup :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claude_Verret Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I know #analytics are a swear word to many here, but the 2013 hockey prospectus essay on the Sabres goes through the statistical discussion of Enroth vs. Miller save percentage and why it isn't valid to claim Enroth was/is equal or better than Miller mainly due to what a few here have already alluded to..sample size and regression to the mean. Im traveling and don't have my copy with me to provide more detail, but perhaps another advanced stat poster who has a copy and chime in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) Ah, I get it. So his save percentage over a 3 year span isn't enough, yet everybody seems to be able to conclude that he isn't good enough. Regardless of what you think he can do, up to this point he hasn't done any worse than Miller. The sample size argument has been used for the last two years, and yet that save percentage thing still hasn't changed. Huh. Nobody can prove what he can do, but the save percentage is the biggest telling tale of what he HAS done. The sample size argument is a weak argument for those that just don't want to admit that Miller isn't that great. If save percentage can't be used at this point then NO other stat can be used at this point. Analytics is just some desperate attempt to find some way to make one side look better regardless of how deep you have to dig to find some stat that looks more enticing. You can dig all you want, the overall numbers don't lie. If sample size wipes out the validity of a particular stat, it wipes out the validity of ALL stats. We're beating a dead horse here. Edited January 25, 2014 by JJFIVEOH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ah, I get it. So his save percentage over a 3 year span isn't enough, yet everybody seems to be able to conclude that he isn't good enough. Regardless of what you think he can do, up to this point he hasn't done any worse than Miller. The sample size argument has been used for the last two years, and yet that save percentage thing still hasn't changed. Huh. Nobody can prove what he can do, but the save percentage is the biggest telling tale of what he HAS done. The sample size argument is a weak argument for those that just don't want to admit that Miller isn't that great. If save percentage can't be used at this point then NO other stat can be used at this point. Analytics is just some desperate attempt to find some way to make one side look better regardless of how deep you have to dig to find some stat that looks more enticing. You can dig all you want, the overall numbers don't lie. If sample size wipes out the validity of a particular stat, it wipes out the validity of ALL stats. We're beating a dead horse here. So you want Enroth as the #1 starter once/if Miller is traded? Do you think Enroth is the league-wide best available option for Buffalo? That's the horse that has been beaten? What's the best possible future in goal for Buffalo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) Now that my caffeine is finally kicking in, I see that the sample size point was already made. My other point still stands though. :P So you want Enroth as the #1 starter once/if Miller is traded? Do you think Enroth is the league-wide best available option for Buffalo? That's the horse that has been beaten? What's the best possible future in goal for Buffalo? Yes, I do. There is no way to tell, if the sample size argument is going to be used, how good he is until he gets at least a full year of 60 starts under his belt. They can plan ahead in the meantime. It's beating a dead horse because there are at least three threads with the same discussion going on. Edited January 25, 2014 by JJFIVEOH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Now that my caffeine is finally kicking in, I see that the sample size point was already made. My point still stands though. :P Yes, I do. There is no way to tell, if the sample size argument is going to be used, how good he is until he gets at least a full year of 60 starts under his belt. They can plan ahead in the meantime. It's beating a dead horse because there are at least three threads with the same discussion going on. I don't think you will ever see Enroth get 60 starts/year in this league. So no, you don't have much to discuss on the stats front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) Now that my caffeine is finally kicking in, I see that the sample size point was already made. My other point still stands though. :P Yes, I do. There is no way to tell, if the sample size argument is going to be used, how good he is until he gets at least a full year of 60 starts under his belt. They can plan ahead in the meantime. It's beating a dead horse because there are at least three threads with the same discussion going on. Like X says, I don't think we'll ever be able to adequately compare Enroth and Miller unless Enroth actually gets the workload necessary to drive real data. We're stuck evaluating him with the eye test. And what you look for in a goalie might not be what X looks for or what I look for or what TM looks for. That's the difficult part of the discussion. Edited January 25, 2014 by d4rksabre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Like X says, I don't think we'll ever be able to adequately compare Enroth and Miller unless Enroth actually gets the workload necessary to drive real data. We're stuck evaluating him with the eye test. And what you look for in a goalie might not be what X looks for or what I look for or what TM looks for. That's the difficult part of the discussion. Yes, it's all visual up to this point. We know he has his weaknesses, so does Miller. But he also has his strengths. As long as Enroth continues to put up a comparable save percentage I have no reason to doubt he can replace Miller. Miller's hot streak is over now, he's coming back down to Earth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ah, I get it. So his save percentage over a 3 year span isn't enough, yet everybody seems to be able to conclude that he isn't good enough. Regardless of what you think he can do, up to this point he hasn't done any worse than Miller. The sample size argument has been used for the last two years, and yet that save percentage thing still hasn't changed. Huh. Nobody can prove what he can do, but the save percentage is the biggest telling tale of what he HAS done. The sample size argument is a weak argument for those that just don't want to admit that Miller isn't that great. If save percentage can't be used at this point then NO other stat can be used at this point. Analytics is just some desperate attempt to find some way to make one side look better regardless of how deep you have to dig to find some stat that looks more enticing. You can dig all you want, the overall numbers don't lie. If sample size wipes out the validity of a particular stat, it wipes out the validity of ALL stats. We're beating a dead horse here. I'm not sure how to reply to such prideful ignorance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 You can dig all you want, the overall numbers don't lie. Here's an overall number: 1-14. That's Enroth's record this year. And it's the most important number there is. Is that number lying? You can dig all you want, the overall numbers don't lie. Here's an overall number: 1-14. That's Enroth's record this year. And it's the most important number there is. Is that number lying? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross Rhea Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Here's an overall number: 1-14. That's Enroth's record this year. And it's the most important number there is. Is that number lying? Here's an overall number: 1-14. That's Enroth's record this year. And it's the most important number there is. Is that number lying? Haha, yeah right, because 12-22 is sooooooo much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJFIVEOH Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Here's an overall number: 1-14. That's Enroth's record this year. And it's the most important number there is. Is that number lying? Here's an overall number: 1-14. That's Enroth's record this year. And it's the most important number there is. Is that number lying? Tell me what his goal support is. Are those numbers lying? I'm not sure how to reply to such prideful ignorance. Didn't stop you from throwing in another dig. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristian Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Haha, yeah right, because 12-22 is sooooooo much better. I think Jhonas has been playing ok, barring the past two games, but Miller has sucked recently as well, so at least they seem to mirror each other there. Now, I realise it's nowhere near the cup-team you're demanding be in place like two weeks ago but just to spell it out : Miller has won 11 more games than Enroth this season. That's actually quite a lot better. It pretty much means if Enroth starts the next 12 games, he needs to go 11-1 to match Miller's record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasmus_ Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think Jhonas has been playing ok, barring the past two games, but Miller has sucked recently as well, so at least they seem to mirror each other there. Now, I realise it's nowhere near the cup-team you're demanding be in place like two weeks ago but just to spell it out : Miller has won 11 more games than Enroth this season. That's actually quite a lot better. It pretty much means if Enroth starts the next 12 games, he needs to go 11-1 to match Miller's record. Completely agree with you. He's been alright given his chances. He has a chance to be a middle of the pack goal tender I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Tell me what his goal support is. Are those numbers lying? Didn't stop you from throwing in another dig. The dig was deserved given the post. FWIW, I'm completely with you on the record thing. Wins are about the worst way to judge a goaltender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yes, it's all visual up to this point. We know he has his weaknesses, so does Miller. But he also has his strengths. As long as Enroth continues to put up a comparable save percentage I have no reason to doubt he can replace Miller. Miller's hot streak is over now, he's coming back down to Earth. My issue is that Enroth's weaknesses are much more detrimental. His rebound control is not good. Which is bad for a goalie who needs to be able to control rebounds to help himself out. Many of his "highlight reel" saves are the result of his own rebounds that he kicks out to opposing players. He needs to improve this aspect of his game 100% from where it is right now. His height, which I've mentioned before, is a natural handicap and nothing he can change, but it makes him an easy target once he is down in the butterfly. He needs to resist the urge to drop early, which is something he does often. He will not make it playing a straight butterfly style. It's too predictable. For all the gripes about Miller letting in soft goals, Enroth should be raked over the coals for how many opportunities he creates on his own. Until he stops making more work for himself, I'm not going to have much confidence in him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Malooga Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) Trade him? What do you think his value is right now? Try this drill: Find one team that would pick up Enroth right now if you waived him? You didn't ask what his trade value you was you asked if a team would claim him off waivers and I tossed out several. He actually did ask what Enroth's value is right now...lol. On a serious note...why is everyone talking about Hackett and Ullmark, and not Makarov...as far as I'm concerned, he is our best prospect as far as goaltending goes...is he not? I am completely on board with giving Enroth the entire 2014-2015 season to prove himself...IF Miller is dealt for a good return. Otherwise, I'd re-sign Miller...and try to trade Enroth, allowing Hackett to back up Miller...and Ullmark/Makarov taking over in Rochester. If we need a developmental prospect, here are some who are highly regarded, but will probably be available after the 1st round. http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=683206 (I like Demko, as well...but, I also like the idea of the Michigan State kid, Edwin Minney.) [Edwin Minney, USNTDP (USHL): The 6-4.25, 191-pounder earned a "B" ranking from Central Scouting. He's committed to Michigan State University starting in the fall of 2014. He'll join Demko at the CCM/USA Hockey All-American Prospects Game on Sept. 26 at Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh. "He plays big in all situations, is so relaxed, calm and poised out there," Jensen said. "He has excellent body control and balance when moving throughout the crease and making saves, has an excellent butterfly and great low net coverage, with his extended butterfly covering the lower portion of the net. His recovery and lateral ability is excellent."] (Michigan State goalie...Miller...Minney...close enough, eh?) Edited January 25, 2014 by DJshnooks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 He actually did ask what Enroth's value is right now...lol. On a serious note...why is everyone talking about Hackett and Ullmark, and not Makarov...as far as I'm concerned, he is our best prospect as far as goaltending goes...is he not? Seems you and me are one of the few that consider him our top goalie prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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