The Hopium Den: 10 reasons why the Sabres could be better this year

[dudacek]

I’m already on record as saying my expectations for this team are for it to be slightly better than last year, but probably not enough for the playoffs.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of reasons to inject hopium for a better result.

Here are 10 positive possibilities, none of which are out-of-this-world crazy:

Edited yesterday at 05:24 PM by dudacek

[dudacek]

1 Tage Thompson is going to have a monster year
Everything I’ve seen on the ice the past few years has convinced me that he is top-tier talent; very few players have his physical gifts and his ability to create his own offence. Everything I’ve seen and heard off the ice this summer is that he is hyper-focused on breaking the drought and making the Olympic team in the process. He’s going to be a game breaker

2 Zach Benson is going to improve the top 6
The analytics don’t lie: Benson tilts the ice no matter who is with or against him. He’s going to keep the puck pointed away from our net and towards theirs in a way others couldn’t. He’s going to do the dirty work of getting to the net, forcing turnovers and making plays in tight the way that others wouldn’t. He’s going to keep the goals against down, do all the little things to make Tage’s life easier and he’s going to start unlocking his offensive skillset in the process. Third season jumps for skilled forwards are a real thing.

3 Josh Norris will be a notable upgrade on Dylan Cozens
I’m not going to repeat the excellent work @mjd1001 did on how Cozens was a black hole that swallowed offence and served up chances. ‘Decent’ would be an upgrade in his role, and Norris is better than decent. His shoulder is healthy and the rest of his body is no more at risk than anyone else’s. He’s gonna play and he’s gonna help.

4 Jack Quinn will replace JJ Peterka
I’m not sure where it all went wrong for Quinn last year, but track records have to account for something. Quinn was better than Peterka in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 — both offensively and defensively — before last year saw them switch places. He’s coming in fit and highly motivated, and Peteka’s offensive minutes should be his for the taking. He got 40 points last year playing like *****. He won’t play like ***** this year.

5 Michael Kesselring is exactly what the blue line was missing
I’m not sure you could have plucked a more suitable player to match the prototype of what the Sabres were looking for: a big, enthusiastic, right-handed defenceman with good underlying numbers and something to prove, who will play hard and answer the bell. He will provide competence to go along with both depth and edge, and make all three pairs better because the pieces will finally fit.

6 Josh Doan is exactly what the forward ranks were missing
I can’t count the number of times Sabrespacers have screamed for a player to forecheck, to back check, to hit, to get to the net, to stick up for his teammates, to work, to care. Josh Doan is all of these things. Whether he’s on the 1st line or the 4th, he’s going to do the dirty work and inspire his teammates to do the same. He’ll be fan favourite by Christmas.

7 Lindy knows the roster and they know him
I’m not absolving the coach or the players for the lack of preparation and the piss-poor job they did connecting with each other last year. But this year, there will be no learning curve and no surprises. The coach knows what most of this team is capable of. The pieces that did not fit were ejected. Pieces were acquired to fill what the coach thought his roster lacked. Expectations are firmly in place and plenty of secondary roles are there to be won or lost through internal competition. Ruff’s legacy is on the line.

8 This defence corps is going to create a *****-ton of offence
Concern has rightfully been expressed about the Sabres lack of playmakers down the middle, but I’m not sure enough has been said about the embarrassment of playmakers they have on the blue line. Buffalo has FOUR of league’s top 50 point producers at even strength on the blueline: ranking 4, 15, 17 and tied for 40th overall. People are drooling over Montreal getting Dobson. Kesselring matched him point for point at ES and he’s the worst offensively of the Sabres 4. Dahlin is elite and none of the other three have hit their peak. It’s a rare mix and could create nightmares to defend against.

9 The team is going to play better defence
We’ve talked a ton about how bad the Sabres were at defence, but not as much about how the roster changes might affect that. Cozens warts have been thoroughly discussed, Peterka had some of the worst defensive underlying numbers in the league, Lafferty sucked, Clifton analytically was one of the league’s least-effective regular defensemen, Jokiharju had no role, and Bryson played too much. Norris, Doan, Danforth, Timmons, Kesselring, and Jones are, respectively, each better at defending than the guy they are replacing. Analytically speaking, Doan, Kesselring and Timmons are actually outright good at it. None of that includes the defensive improvement that usually comes with experience for younger players.

10 The goaltending can’t possibly get worse
As a team, the Sabres ranked 29th in S% last year with 89.9%. The previous year, they were 14th with 91.4%. Luukkonen went from 19th in Goals saved above expected (min 10 games) 2 years ago to 60th last year, an 18-goal differential. Levi went from 15th to not qualifying, but he had a similar 18-goal drop. Luukkonen’s save percentage was 12 points below his career average and 23 points worse than his previous year.  Levi was 24 points behind his career average. Alex Lyon is a career .902 goaltender, putting up .904 and .896 the past two years on a defensively poor Detroit squad. Historically, these goalies should be better than they were last year.

Edited yesterday at 01:16 PM by dudacek

[PerreaultForever]

So what you're saying is if everything improves they should improve. Is that about right?

[mjd1001]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

1 Tage Thompson is going to have a monster year
Everything I’ve seen on the ice the past few years has convinced me that he is top-tier talent; very few players have his physical gifts and his ability to create his own offence. Everything I’ve seen and heard off the ice this summer is that he is hyper-focused on breaking the drought and making the Olympic team in the process. He’s going to be a game breaker

2 Zach Benson is going to improve the top 6
The analytics don’t lie: Benson tilts the ice no matter who is with or against. He’s going to keep the puck pointed away from our net and towards theirs in a way others couldn’t. He’s going to do the dirty work of getting to the net, forcing turnovers and making plays in tight the way that others wouldn’t. He’s going to keep the goals against down, do all the litle things to make Tage’s life easier and he’s going to start unlocking his offensive skillset in the process. Third season jumps for skilled forwards are a real thing.

3 Josh Norris will be a notable upgrade on Dylan Cozens
I’m not going to repeat the excellent work @mjd1001 did on how Cozens was a black hole that swallowed offence and served up chances. ‘Decent’ would be an upgrade in his role, and Norris is better than decent. His shoulder is healthy and the rest of his body is no more at risk than anyone else’s. He’s gonna play and he’s gonna help.

4 Jack Quinn will replace JJ Peterka
I’m not sure where it all went wrong for Quinn last year, but track records have to account for something. Quinn was better than Peterka in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 — both offensively and defensively — before last year saw them switch places. He’s coming in fit and highly motivated, and Peteka’s offensive minutes should be his for the taking. He got 40 points last year playing like *****. He won’t play like ***** this year.

5 Michael Kesselring is exactly what the blue line was missing
I’m not sure you could have plucked a more suitable player to match the prototype of what the Sabres were looking for: a big, enthusiastic, right-handed defenceman with good underlying numbers and something to prove, who will play hard and answer the bell. He will provide competence to go along with both depth and edge, and make all three pairs better because the pieces will finally fit.

6 Josh Doan is exactly what the forward ranks were missing
I can’t count the number of times Sabrespacers have screamed for a player to forecheck, to back check, to hit, to get to the net, to stick up for his teammates, to work, to care. Josh Doan is all of these things. Whether he’s on the 1st line or the 4th, he’s going to do the dirty work and inspire his teammates to do the same. He’ll be fan favourite by Christmas.

7 Lindy knows the roster and they know him
I’m not absolving the coach or the players for the lack of preparation and the piss-poor job they did connecting with each other last year. But this year, there will be no learning curve and no surprises. The coach knows what most of this team is capable of. The pieces that did not fit were ejected. Pieces were acquired to fill what the coach thought his roster lacked. Expectations are firmly in place and plenty of secondary roles are there to be won or lost through internal competition. Ruff’s legacy is on the line.

8 This defence corps is going to create a *****-ton of offence
Concern has rightfully been expressed about the Sabres lack of playmakers down the middle, but I’m not sure enough has been said about the embarrassment of playmakers they have on the blue line. Buffalo has FOUR of league’s top 50 point producers at even strength on the blueline: ranking 4, 15, 17 and tied for 40th overall. People are drooling over Montreal getting Dobson. Kesselring matched him point for point at ES and he’s the worst offensively of the Sabres 4. Dahlin is elite and none of the other three have hit their peak. It’s a rare mix and could create nightmares to defend against.

9 The team is going to play better defence
We’ve talked a ton about how bad the Sabres were at defence, but not as much about how the roster changes might affect that. Cozens warts have been thoroughly discussed, Peterka had some of the worst defensive underlying numbers in the league, Lafferty sucked, Clifton analytically was one of the league’s least-effective regular defensemen, Jokiharju had no role, and Bryson played too much. Norris, Doan, Danforth, Timmons, Kesselring, and Jones are, respectively, each better at defending than the guy they are replacing. Analytically speaking, Doan, Kesselring and Timmons are actually outright good at it. None of that includes the defensive improvement that usually comes with experience for younger players.

10 The goaltending can’t possibly get worse
As a team, the Sabres ranked 29th in S% last year with 89.9%. The previous year, they were 14th with 91.4%. Luukkonen went from 19th in Goals saved above expected (min 10 games) 2 years ago to 60th last year, an 18-goal differential. Levi went from 15th to not qualifying, but he had a similar 18-goal drop. Luukkonen’s save percentage was 12 points below his career average and 23 points worse than his previous year.  Levi was 24 points behind his career average. Alex Lyon is a career .902 goaltender, putting up .904 and .896 the past two years on a defensively poor Detroit squad. Historically, these goalies should be better than they were last year.

For the most part I agree.  Some points of my own:

1. Tage:  Dahlin and Tage are the 2 best players on the team.  Barring injury I expect close to 50 goals out of him.  HOWEVER, the caveat as far as the team being better is last year he lead the league in even strenght goals (I think) and almost had 50 overall.  There is a chance he can still have a 'monster year' but it won't be an improvement over what he gave you in the past.

2. Benson. I hope he gets better,I'm guessing he will the question is how much.  I really, REALLY liked him on a line with Kulich and Tage at the end of last year.  I'd forget about slotting my perceived #1 wingers with my #1 center, #2s with #2s and just go with the players that 'mesh' the best. That gives me Tage with Kulich and either Benson or Doan (if Doan shows he is a legit NHLer in camp)

3. Norris better than Cozens.  Yes

4. Quinn replacing Peterka.  This is one I'm worried about.  Of any forward that got regular minutes (top 9 minutes), I have long said that Cozens was one of the worst...not only on the team but in the LEAGUE in terms of him hurting you more than he helps you.  Last year Quinn was even worse. I hope what happened to him gets fixed.  Quinn getting regular minutes can either be good (there might be the most room for improvement over last year for him compared to any player except UPL) or very bad (They make the same mistake with Cozens...that Quinn hurts you over and over but you keep putting him out there).

5. Kesserling.  One of the things I'll be watching.  I don't really know much about him, haven't seen him play much, and his analytics are ok/good, but not spectacular.

6. Doan.  See Kesserling above.  He could be a borderline AHLer/NHLer, but I'm more hopeful for him than that.  I see a realistic ceiling of him actually playing 17+ minutes a game and helping the team, possibly on a line with Tage and Kulich. (I wouldn't count on that, but it wouldn't surprise me)

7. Lindy and the Roster. Yep. Last year I get the impression he was feeling things out for a while. That should be over now.

8. I'm hopeful, but I don't have much to add to that.  I'm still thinking Byrum is a little overrated in terms of what he brings.

9. Really need the overall D to be better.  Cozens gone and Quinn getting better will be the 2 key things here. The D-unit, hopefully the additions make them somewhat better.

10. It has to be better, right? With UPL, reversion to the mean?

Edited yesterday at 10:57 AM by mjd1001

[Demoted]

They cannot be any worse... I hope.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Demoted said:

They cannot be any worse... I hope.

Don’t ever challenge worse.   
 

@dudacek needs to put odds on each of those 10 things happening.   

For example - The defense had 2 40 pts players and one 70 pt player so the odds of that happening again for pretty good.  While the odds of us having good goaltending are much much lower.  He wrote they can’t be worse.  While that may be true, given how lousy UPL has been as a pro except one season and how exceeding mediocre Lyons has been in his career especially on poor defensive teams like the Sabres, I’d say the odds of substantive improvement are about 10%.  The reason it’s not zero is because we have seen moments of good goaltending from all 3, just not enough and not consistently 

Edited yesterday at 12:36 PM by GASabresIUFAN

[JohnC]

I'm predicting that the Sabres will be competing for a playoff spot all season long. Will they finally qualify? Yes, if the goaltending is consistently respectable. That's the big question. Two years ago, UPL demonstrated that he was at a stage where it seemed that he was going to be a legitimate NHL starter. However, last year, he fell off the cliff Needless to say, he's a fragile player for a position that requires tough-mindedness. Handling failure is a big aspect of that position. Last year, the word resiliency was not part of his vocabulary.  

In @dudacek's excellent listing of his expectations for most of the players, a good summarization of the group is that the driving force for improvement will be internal improvement of our young players.   

The players I am very intrigued about who were on the roster last year are Quinn, Benson and Power. I'm hoping they have a leap year. And the new players that I will be following are Doan and Kesserling. 

Edited 21 hours ago by JohnC

[Jorcus]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m already on record as saying my expectations for this team are for it to be slightly better than last year, but probably not enough for the playoffs.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of reasons to inject hopium for something more.

Here are 10 positive possibilities, none of which are out-of-this-world crazy:

I think this is going to be a very interesting year in the Eastern Division of the NHL. There seems to be a lot of parity in the teams. It could be a year where 3 points in the standings might be the difference between 2nd and out of the playoffs. This is a good thing/ bad thing for the Sabres. The bad thing is they are facing tough teams almost every night when playing in the East. The good thing is that these teams are going to beat on each other so it's not likely anyone is going to run off and hide a top the standings. The current betting lines have the Sabres near the bottom only ahead of Boston and Pittsburgh. There is enough talent on the Sabres to be much better. In the 2021-2022 season no team in the East finished with 90-99 points. Either you had 100 or more, (in the playoffs) or you were out with less than 90. Last year 5 teams were in the 90's and it looks to be even tighter this year. I think the Sabres can get in with what they have. They are getting little older a little tougher and would seem to have some AHL depth to plug holes as long as the injuries don't get out of hand. A lot will depend on how good the competition has become.   

[French Collection]

A lot has to go right for the Sabres to make the playoffs. If a majority of these hopium infused ideas come true, there is a chance.

Healthy seasons for Dahlin are TNT are key, extended periods of time without them can sink the season.

Benson will improve, the percentage of this jump could make a big difference. This guy should get an “A” on his sweater in a few more years. More heart than Power and Mule combined.

I will keep harping on Power getting 10% more grit, baby steps, but strength and confidence can increase. 10% is not a big number but would be noticeable on someone starting at 0%.

Quinn can be a 55-65 point player, it’s up to him to play like it.

Lindy needs to up his game, demand more from his staff and push the right buttons on the players. I hope Appert has studied advanced PP theories all summer like his future depends on it.

Kesselring and Doan will have more impact than many expect. I think Doan is a 3rd liner, but a good one. Kesselring will help Power find a bit of grit and back him up when other players test him.

I agree that goaltending can’t be worse. Goalies are weird and mostly up and down so UPL should be better. If not, Levi should be given his games after another good start in Rochester to pump his tires.

[DarthEbriate]

I think it's about 50/50 that every single one of @dudacek's hopes comes true. For example, to quantify a few: Norris outscores Cozens' 2024-25 and is also a + player. Quinn stays healthy and hits 69 points. Older & Stronger Power-Kesselring eliminate more rebound goals than Power-Jokiharju were able to. The team save percentage leaps from 31st in the league to... 22nd.

I think at least 7 of the hopes happen.

My worryum is that even if all the hopium hits, there's a distinct possibility that the team misses the playoffs because the division rivals finally have to play their starter against the Sabres, or in the case of the Panthers: they have to show up for 20 minutes instead of 5 over the course of the game. This season's Sabres should see a step in the right direction (just in time to name Appert the next HC and solidify Sheevyn as GM for the next few years).

[EM88]

The Sabres goaltending hurt them so much last year.

Take a look at UPL the year before.  For the season he had a .910 save percentage.  From Jan 1 though the end of that season, over 3+ months he had a .919.  However, last season it dropped to .887.

I know some on this board will say the defense in front of him was terrible last season. My personal opinion is the defense was not that much better or worse last year than the year before.  Shots allowed, high danger shots, and other advance stats were similar both years. Not the same, but in the same ballpark.  My eyes tell me he let in a lot of soft goals last year that he was not allowing in the previous year.

Conclusions from those numbers:  Had he played last year like he did the entire year before, the Sabres would have allowed about 30-35 goals less, making them well into the positive goal differential as a team.  The vast majority of positive goal differential teams, especially once you hit +10 or more in goal differential, make the playoffs.  Had he played last year like he did only in the 2nd half of the previous year, things would be even better by 5 or 10 more goals.

If nothing else changes from last year about this team except UPL stepped up to be an average level goaltender, this team at least competes for the playoffs. If nothng else changed except UPL started to play like he did the year before, a much better than average goaltender, then this team makes the playoffs.

[dudacek]

More Hopium in terms of this team outperforming projections, from Dom, the numbers guy at the Athletic. Context is betting odds.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6616541/2025/09/11/nhl-futures-best-bets-win-totals-why-the-sabres-deserve-more-love/

Point Totals and Playoffs

Buffalo Sabres

OVER 82.5 Points

YES Playoffs (+300)

There’s no team I like more in this market than Buffalo. While I completely understand the capitulation around the Sabres going into the year, there’s no way I can even get close to these numbers. After 15 years of stink, it may be hard to see, but I think the Sabres will be closer to the playoff race than the bottom five. I have them around 90 points, which puts their odds of hitting the over at 75 percent. It also makes that +300 to make the playoffs extremely juicy. Buffalo isn’t likely to be the Atlantic’s sixth-best team, but I have them closer to 45 percent.

ADVERTISEMENT

There are two things that the Sabres have going for them this season compared to last year: youth and improved depth. There should be a fair bit of internal improvement forecasted, given how many players are in their prime or entering it, with Zach Benson being especially intriguing going into the year. On the depth front, the loss of JJ Peterka hurts, but his role can be filled internally via growth and is made up for by the holes that Josh Doan and especially Michael Kesselring fill.

On the latter front, it feels like the Sabres’ defensive unit — led by a top-five guy in Rasmus Dahlin — is severely underrated. Ideally, Owen Power takes a big step to become a no-doubt No. 2, but beyond him, Kesselring is a huge improvement over what the team was getting out of Connor Clifton and Jacob Bryson. Combine that with an offense that’s first in goals-per-60 at five-on-five over the last three years, and the Sabres could be legit. If they ever figure out how to turn all of that into a decent power play, look out.

Just when everyone has given up on Buffalo, it feels like the team has what it takes to really surprise this year. It’s the classic post-hype breakthrough

Edited 4 hours ago by dudacek

[DarthEbriate]

I don't gamble -- I'm not scum and I don't like being told the odds. But if the Sabres over is 82.5, I'm taking the over immediately. 

[Jorcus]

Another big betting site has the over/under at 80.5. Then again they have the rangers at 95.5. Of course these lines are being driven by early season betting odds and could change quickly. I don't think they reflect realistic chances at this point. 

[triumph_communes]

They changed half of their defense with solid players in their prime. Not players who need to be exceptional, just solid. 
 

and they added defensive minded forwards to replace the hoop suckers
 

that will enable the goalies to have an ounce of confidence. And the goalie problem will be resolved

that will enable the offense defenseman we already have to actually step up 

 

playoffs, beat Toronto, win cup

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

They changed half of their defense with solid players in their prime. Not players who need to be exceptional, just solid. 
 

and they added defensive minded forwards to replace the hoop suckers
 

that will enable the goalies to have an ounce of confidence. And the goalie problem will be resolved

that will enable the offense defenseman we already have to actually step up 

 

playoffs, beat Toronto, win cup

If they had a combined 1500 games more experience, I'd be inclined to agree. They don't though. They are 1,000 games less experienced than the 31st place team. 

[triumph_communes]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

If they had a combined 1500 games more experience, I'd be inclined to agree. They don't though. They are 1,000 games less experienced than the 31st place team. 

This is the hopium thread. Are you lost?