The Hopium Den: 10 reasons why the Sabres could be better this year

[dudacek]

I’m already on record as saying my expectations for this team are for it to be slightly better than last year, but probably not enough for the playoffs.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of reasons to inject hopium for something more.

Here are 10 positive possibilities, none of which are out-of-this-world crazy:

[dudacek]

1 Tage Thompson is going to have a monster year
Everything I’ve seen on the ice the past few years has convinced me that he is top-tier talent; very few players have his physical gifts and his ability to create his own offence. Everything I’ve seen and heard off the ice this summer is that he is hyper-focused on breaking the drought and making the Olympic team in the process. He’s going to be a game breaker

2 Zach Benson is going to improve the top 6
The analytics don’t lie: Benson tilts the ice no matter who is with or against. He’s going to keep the puck pointed away from our net and towards theirs in a way others couldn’t. He’s going to do the dirty work of getting to the net, forcing turnovers and making plays in tight the way that others wouldn’t. He’s going to keep the goals against down, do all the litle things to make Tage’s life easier and he’s going to start unlocking his offensive skillset in the process. Third season jumps for skilled forwards are a real thing.

3 Josh Norris will be a notable upgrade on Dylan Cozens
I’m not going to repeat the excellent work @mjd1001 did on how Cozens was a black hole that swallowed offence and served up chances. ‘Decent’ would be an upgrade in his role, and Norris is better than decent. His shoulder is healthy and the rest of his body is no more at risk than anyone else’s. He’s gonna play and he’s gonna help.

4 Jack Quinn will replace JJ Peterka
I’m not sure where it all went wrong for Quinn last year, but track records have to account for something. Quinn was better than Peterka in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 — both offensively and defensively — before last year saw them switch places. He’s coming in fit and highly motivated, and Peteka’s offensive minutes should be his for the taking. He got 40 points last year playing like *****. He won’t play like ***** this year.

5 Michael Kesselring is exactly what the blue line was missing
I’m not sure you could have plucked a more suitable player to match the prototype of what the Sabres were looking for: a big, enthusiastic, right-handed defenceman with good underlying numbers and something to prove, who will play hard and answer the bell. He will provide competence to go along with both depth and edge, and make all three pairs better because the pieces will finally fit.

6 Josh Doan is exactly what the forward ranks were missing
I can’t count the number of times Sabrespacers have screamed for a player to forecheck, to back check, to hit, to get to the net, to stick up for his teammates, to work, to care. Josh Doan is all of these things. Whether he’s on the 1st line or the 4th, he’s going to do the dirty work and inspire his teammates to do the same. He’ll be fan favourite by Christmas.

7 Lindy knows the roster and they know him
I’m not absolving the coach or the players for the lack of preparation and the piss-poor job they did connecting with each other last year. But this year, there will be no learning curve and no surprises. The coach knows what most of this team is capable of. The pieces that did not fit were ejected. Pieces were acquired to fill what the coach thought his roster lacked. Expectations are firmly in place and plenty of secondary roles are there to be won or lost through internal competition. Ruff’s legacy is on the line.

8 This defence corps is going to create a *****-ton of offence
Concern has rightfully been expressed about the Sabres lack of playmakers down the middle, but I’m not sure enough has been said about the embarrassment of playmakers they have on the blue line. Buffalo has FOUR of league’s top 50 point producers at even strength on the blueline: ranking 4, 15, 17 and tied for 40th overall. People are drooling over Montreal getting Dobson. Kesselring matched him point for point at ES and he’s the worst offensively of the Sabres 4. Dahlin is elite and none of the other three have hit their peak. It’s a rare mix and could create nightmares to defend against.

9 The team is going to play better defence
We’ve talked a ton about how bad the Sabres were at defence, but not as much about how the roster changes might affect that. Cozens warts have been thoroughly discussed, Peterka had some of the worst defensive underlying numbers in the league, Lafferty sucked, Clifton analytically was one of the league’s least-effective regular defensemen, Jokiharju had no role, and Bryson played too much. Norris, Doan, Danforth, Timmons, Kesselring, and Jones are, respectively, each better at defending than the guy they are replacing. Analytically speaking, Doan, Kesselring and Timmons are actually outright good at it. None of that includes the defensive improvement that usually comes with experience for younger players.

10 The goaltending can’t possibly get worse
As a team, the Sabres ranked 29th in S% last year with 89.9%. The previous year, they were 14th with 91.4%. Luukkonen went from 19th in Goals saved above expected (min 10 games) 2 years ago to 60th last year, an 18-goal differential. Levi went from 15th to not qualifying, but he had a similar 18-goal drop. Luukkonen’s save percentage was 12 points below his career average and 23 points worse than his previous year.  Levi was 24 points behind his career average. Alex Lyon is a career .902 goaltender, putting up .904 and .896 the past two years on a defensively poor Detroit squad. Historically, these goalies should be better than they were last year.

Edited 2 hours ago by dudacek

[PerreaultForever]

So what you're saying is if everything improves they should improve. Is that about right?