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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

Quinn was the Sabres' first round pick in 2021, 8th overall.  The position he plays is different, but are we to expect a comparable level of play from Mrtka in 4 years?

If you go back and look at D-men picked from 6-12 overall and see how long they developed:

2015:  Provorov (played full season in 2016-2017) and Werenski (Played full season in 2016-17)

2016: Sergachev (played a full season in 2017-18)

2017: No D-men picked in that range (Makar was taken 4th overall)

2018: Quinn Hughes (played full season in 2019-20), Adam Boquist (has yet to play full season), Evan Bouchard (played full season 2021-22), Noah Dobson (played full season 2021-22)

2019: Seider (full season 2021-22), Broberg (full season, almost, last year), Soderstromm (no full season yet)

2020: Drysdale (full season 2021-22)

2021: Edvinsson (full season last year, 2024-25), Clarke (full season 2024-25)

2022: Jiricek (no full season yet), Korchiniski (full season 2023-24), Mintyukov (full season 2023-24), Mateychuk (no full season yet)

I didn't want to look back at the last 2 drafts, it might be early for them yet.

So, it looks like the farther back you go, the more likely a D-man was to play right away. In recent drafts, they seem to take longer.

But of all the D-men listed above:  7 of them played a full season the year after they were drafted. 1 took 2 seasons after their draft year. 4 of them took 3 seasons after their draft year. 5 of them took longer than 3 full seasons or have yet to play a full season for the team that drafted them.

Edited by mjd1001
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Posted (edited)

Our overall minimalist approach this offseason on the verge of 15 straight years of no playoffs can only be construed imo as a reflective of their utter confidence in Josh Norris 

Edited by Thorny
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Posted
Just now, Thorny said:

Our overall minimalist approach this offseason on the verge of 15 straight years of no playoffs can only be construed imo as a reflective of their utter confidence in Josh Norris 

The ole 'Hope' strategy. Always pans out!

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Posted
13 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

If you go back and look at D-men picked from 6-12 overall and see how long they developed:

2015:  Provorov (played full season in 2016-2017) and Werenski (Played full season in 2016-17)

2016: Sergachev (played a full season in 2017-18)

2017: No D-men picked in that range (Makar was taken 4th overall)

2018: Quinn Hughes (played full season in 2019-20), Adam Boquist (has yet to play full season), Evan Bouchard (played full season 2021-22), Noah Dobson (played full season 2021-22)

2019: Seider (full season 2021-22), Broberg (full season, almost, last year), Soderstromm (no full season yet)

2020: Drysdale (full season 2021-22)

2021: Edvinsson (full season last year, 2024-25), Clarke (full season 2024-25)

2022: Jiricek (no full season yet), Korchiniski (full season 2023-24), Mintyukov (full season 2023-24), Mateychuk (no full season yet)

I didn't want to look back at the last 2 drafts, it might be early for them yet.

So, it looks like the farther back you go, the more likely a D-man was to play right away. In recent drafts, they seem to take longer.

But of all the D-men listed above:  7 of them played a full season the year after they were drafted. 1 took 2 seasons after their draft year. 4 of them took 3 seasons after their draft year. 5 of them took longer than 3 full seasons or have yet to play a full season for the team that drafted them.

Some folks, like Edvinsson, stayed in Europe. And the 2020 COVID season disrupted Seider and Dobson at least a bit. I think Mrtka makes his debut in 2026-27 and is up full-time by the 3rd and final year of his ELC. It will likely be dictated by need, based on extensions (if any) to Kesselring, Timmins, and JBD. He'll be given every opportunity to leapfrog and Strbak and Kleber.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Some folks, like Edvinsson, stayed in Europe. And the 2020 COVID season disrupted Seider and Dobson at least a bit. I think Mrtka makes his debut in 2026-27 and is up full-time by the 3rd and final year of his ELC. It will likely be dictated by need, based on extensions (if any) to Kesselring, Timmins, and JBD. He'll be given every opportunity to leapfrog and Strbak and Kleber.

Oh good god he's nowhere near playing in 26/27. Sabres might do it, but they shouldn't. A normal team would hope for him in 4. Sabres probably 3, but any sooner would be another rushing the D mistake.

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