Sabres Trade JJ Peterka to Utah for Defenseman Michael Kesselring and Forward Josh Doan

[JustOutsideChicago]

Fully anticipating a bad Byram trade followed by overpaying Brock Boeser.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

 

How do the players we got compare to Robertson in your estimation? 

total value 

Robertson is a 10 and Kesselring is a 4 with Doan maybe a 3. So less value.

[Thorny]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Robertson is a 10 and Kesselring is a 4 with Doan maybe a 3. So less value.

So would you redo this trade given a chance given you said you wouldn’t do it for less than Robertson? 

[Drag0nDan]

Just now, SabresVet said:

My issue is...Adams handed Cozens a major contract (for this franchise) and it was a clear mistake less than 2 years in.  Samuelsson that way.  No one is saying the Power deal is good either.  Luukkonen?  Eh.  

He gets credit for Tage, who probably got praise from Granato to extend, but otherwise, his extensions have hurt the team.  Dahlin is another no-brainer.  

It's not just trades, it's the lack of a coherent plan and now the extensions.  Everything he touches is almost guaranteed to go sour.   

Most GM's don't get a chance to right their wrongs - he is for... some stupid reason.  

In any case - we all watched cozens who was supposed to be a 30G center and he was a gaping black hole on the ice.  Shipped him out and they looked better even with norris missing the rest of the season.  

Buying out skinner was a weird move, but he was invisible on a cup contender so that probably says all you need to say there.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

So would you redo this trade given a chance given you said you wouldn’t do it for less than Robertson? 

I don't love the trade. I don't totally hate it either. Would I redo it as in try something different, probably, yes. I would rather have seen Peterka traded for a sure thing and I don't think that is what this trade is. 

Hopefully a Byram trade is different. 

[LGR4GM]

 

 

[Porous Five Hole]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

lol I started a thread on this thinking we could get some spicy takes

[Flashsabre]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

Well they are doing what a lot of fans have asked for. Prioritizing size and physical players over small, skill players.

I wonder if this means they won’t look at Hagens at #9 if he drops and they keep the pick.

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, ... said:

Does Doan make Krebs expendable? 🤔

Even though Krebs added a little bit of grit to his game this year, I think their style of play and their abilities are different.

Just now, mjd1001 said:

Even though Krebs added a little bit of grit to his game this year, I think their style of play and their abilities are different.

As the morning goes on and I read Post made by people. I'm trying to look at this trade differently. 

For this trade to work out it's kind of obvious but you'd have to say that Utah got the more TALENTED/skilled player.... But not necessarily the BEST (overall execution) player.

[DarthEbriate]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't love the trade. I don't totally hate it either. Would I redo it as in try something different, probably, yes. I would rather have seen Peterka traded for a sure thing and I don't think that is what this trade is. 

Hopefully a Byram trade is different. 

They could keep Byram now and have a solid top 4. But, yes...  hopefully his move gets them the goal-scoring that JJP's departure created. Robertson is the ideal target, but you'd likely need a 3rd team because Byram is redundant with Heiskanen and Harley, just as he was with Dahlin/Power. Adams can't do 3rd teams. Jarmo has many times, though.

[Drag0nDan]

Just now, DarthEbriate said:

They could keep Byram now and have a solid top 4. But, yes...  hopefully his move gets them the goal-scoring that JJP's departure created. Robertson is the ideal target, but you'd likely need a 3rd team because Byram is redundant with Heiskanen and Harley, just as he was with Dahlin/Power. Adams can't do 3rd teams. Jarmo has many times, though.

I would think Tuch would be involved in a move for Robertson.  

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

His xgf, his sh%, and his 2nd assist numbers all give me pause. There's some evidence his shooting last year was more luck than good and his 2nd assist levels also look like luck as no one else on the team is close except Dahlin in that metric. So will he benefit from those more empty caloriesin points and will he still shoot as well? Idk, maybe but rush offense we know can dry up at times and Utah isn't a rush team. Still, he's a good player so he could adapt.

 

11 minutes ago, krakensabr56390 said:

Not to speak for him but peterkas shooting percentage was historically high. There’s a very high likelihood that’s not repeatable and this regression is likely - plus he’s D is still horribad. If he focuses on being a more complete player does his offense regress even more or is he just a 1 way player 

Plus this from Fairburn:

Despite his offensive ability, the Sabres have only 46 percent of the expected goals when Peterka was on the ice at five-on-five last season. According to The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn’s model, Peterka’s defensive impact was in the second percentile in the league. Peterka’s potential is obvious, but he still needs to round out his game. Here’s something else to consider:

Peterka while playing with Tage Thompson together at five-on-five: 50.34 percent expected goal share
Peterka without Thompson: 42.77 percent expected goal share
Thompson without Peterka: 53.31 percent expected goal share

And from me:

I think there is a tendency when a young player breaks out in year 3 to assume he’s going to take another leap the next year. My reading of the numbers is that isn’t necessarily the case; more often the breakout kinda defines more or less what you’re going to get for the next 5 of 6 years.

There might be outlier seasons where Peterka puts up 80 or 45 - and sometimes you get a Reinhart, or maybe a Cozens as an exception - but odds are highest that JJ is generally going to be a 65-point guy, at least in terms of trends.

[DarthEbriate]

3 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

I would think Tuch would be involved in a move for Robertson.  

I don't think Tuch gets traded to Dallas without an extension in place and that would be in the $8-10 range next summer. (Swapping Tuch for Robertson saves them about $3M, then axe Dumba, and they still need to sign 2 more players, despite Benn playing for ELC + incentives money). Dallas can't lose Robertson for a 1-year rental though. And next season when Tuch's money kicks in, Harley is going to get paid. It's doable.

I think Tuch remains with the Sabres (that's partially why JJP and his money are out).

[Ross Rhea]

39 minutes ago, inkman said:

You’d think with your handle being a legendary fictitious pugilist, you’d have a little more respect for Doan and to a lesser extent Kesserling’s willingness to throw hands.  

You're not wrong, however I am tired of good players being traded away, it's gotten really old and comical at this point. It's Ground Hog Day forever here.

[kas23]

4 hours ago, inkman said:

I like the guys they got.  Whether or not it’s equal value is irrelevant to me. The team needed a culture change.  Getting bad players (Dylan Cozens) or offense only allergic to defense players (Peterka) off the roster in exchange for engaged, physical players is a win in my book.  

Agreed. People are acting like we had a playoff team these past few years and we just killed our chances by trading our 2nd highest scorer. 

[Drag0nDan]

Just now, DarthEbriate said:

I don't think Tuch gets traded to Dallas without an extension in place and that would be in the $8-10 range next summer. (Swapping Tuch for Robertson saves them about $3M, then axe Dumba, and they still need to sign 2 more players, despite Benn playing for ELC + incentives money). Dallas can't lose Robertson for a 1-year rental though. And next season when Tuch's money kicks in, Harley is going to get paid. It's doable.

I think Tuch remains with the Sabres (that's partially why JJP and his money are out).

I assume there would be some throw-in's on buffalo's side including #9 and probably their most NHL ready young player on an ELC - Kulich, Rosen, Benson, etc.  

You do it if you think robertsons a 100 point player in buffalo.

[JP51]

10 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think the telling point is how fast Peterka signs the extension with Utah which tells me he either wanted out badly or Kevy was offering low ball garbage money. Utah obviously thinks highly of Peterka as I do. 

Kesselring is fine but he's not going to change things in any big way. Doan I know nothing about. I suspect that might mean there's not much to know. 

This doesn't get us in the playoffs. Might make us worse. 

I agree at this point this is a net loss on paper... the only way this helps us is if the infusion of players that are harder to play against and increased chemistry on the team changes the trend of the team... talentwise its a net loss currently with Doan being future upside to even that out or you believe Peterka was the problem and this was addition by subtraction... (Diggs, Roy etc....)  it was not a hockey trade in which sent multiple players for the better player.. it was the opposite attempt to accumulate value in multiples likely again because most trades in which we get the better player will be nixed due to NMCs.  It is our plight.. 

[Taro T]

59 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

This trade only makes sense if the Sabres are reeling in a big fish this offseason.  Instead of spending 7MM on JJP, the Sabres added physicality and RD. That’s what folks wanted this summer and they did it inexpensively.  

Kesselring, 1 year @ $1.4 million

Josh Doan, 1 year @ 900k (ELC)

I doubt it is Marner, but if this paves the way for Robertson, I’m good.  
If this was done for EEE considerations, then this franchise is truly cooked.  Have to hope it’s the former.  

To us, the fans, this trade only makes sense if the Sabres are using that ~$5.5MM saved on someone the team needs.  From ownership's perspective it MAY make sense in that the Sabres got about 80% of what Peterka is worth AND ownership can hold ~$5.5MM in pocket.  As a couple of our Canadian posters have mentioned the fans and ownership/management don't necessarily have identical goals.

Would absolutely love to hear both Pegula's take on this and whether he intends to spend significantly more in salary than is presently indicated (provided his GM can actually bring in the talent worthy of that spending) and also what the team's "big 3" think of the move.

If the players think this move as is is good, am less disheartened by it, and if we end up seeing at least 2 of the following 3 things happen in the next 2 weeks: a partner for Dahlin is brought in, a GOOD top 6 (if not a GREAT top 6) F is brought in (preferably another C; figure out who plays W later, have depth at that slot), &/or a known good goaltender is brought in; will be ok with last night's move.  

[DarthEbriate]

3 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

I assume there would be some throw-in's on buffalo's side including #9 and probably their most NHL ready young player on an ELC - Kulich, Rosen, Benson, etc.  

You do it if you think robertsons a 100 point player in buffalo.

You do, if that's what your leadership values.

However, if your leadership says "EEE" and "guys who want to be here", then you pay Tuch between $8-9M and he's local, and you let the bigger fish in the league pay Robertson $11-13M.

[Palm Trees And Taxes]

31 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't love the trade. I don't totally hate it either. Would I redo it as in try something different, probably, yes. I would rather have seen Peterka traded for a sure thing and I don't think that is what this trade is. 

Hopefully a Byram trade is different. 

Feel the same exact way. Hate that it took moving a 23 year old Top 6 forward in Peterka to get a RHD who is big and physical. Or maybe that is a reflection of the price of such talent, RHD's with these traits are not super easy to come by.

I think the true assessment of moving Peterka can be made July 26th, not June 26th. Let's see what the Sabres do next.

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

Im not bothered by the fact they didn’t jump on Rossi; I’ve been consistent on here that Rossi doesn’t fix their problems.

What does bother me is the implication that they had to use Peterka specifically to fix their problems.

I don’t know that’s what happened here, but what matters is looking at all possible returns and how to best stack them together to maximize improvement.

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Im not bothered by the fact they didn’t jump on Rossi; I’ve been consistent on here that Rossi doesn’t fix their problems.

What does bother me is the implication that they had to use Peterka specifically to fix their problems.

I don’t know that’s what happened here, but what matters is looking at all possible returns and how to best stack them together to maximize improvement.

Adams is really bad at stacking moves 

[Scottysabres]

9 hours ago, Thorny said:

What does this mean? You make it seem like 78 points for 5 years and losing your top assist-making budding star forward is the best we could hope for.

we were told this was Adams plan for YEARS, remember? “Youngest team in hockey”. That’s why we couldn’t win in the now - remember? We had to wait on these players, we’d be good when they got older; we were saving money for them. 

you CANNOT pull the rug out from under feet after and say “well you don’t get to keep them”… what? That’s what you said the plan was! 

No. No no no. No way - our second leading scorer and highest scorer of those precious RFAs?
 

“You were never going to keep them” is patently nonsense when we were told we had to save money so we COULD keep them - you get that that would COMPLETELY TANK THE JUSTIFICATION FOR THE FIRST 5 YEARS OF ADAMS’ PLAN, right? And he’d still be the GM lol.

It would *prove* we should have been trying and spending back then, considering NOT doing so did little to prevent the “we’ll lose them!” fear mongering result, anyways. Might as well have tried ONCE, no?

I’ll go insane literally if this can’t be understood - the biggest knife to the gut isn’t actually losing JJ, it’s the in-real-time demonstration of why not trying before so as to “not mortgage the future” was a colossally judged mistake and the fact the same folks keep the reigns is beyond sad. 

It means I really have no problem with the organization moving anyone on the roster, and I mean anyone literally.

I get the frustration, I’m just not there anymore. I want to see who goes, who stays, who is brought in. As of now, I like a top 4 d man and another energy line 4 guy more than Peterka. We lost a 25 to 30 goal scorer, there’s replacements waiting in a long line, and brace yourself, I don’t think he’ll be the only forward going.

Just my opinion is all.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Adams is really bad at stacking moves 

Demonstrably true.

This is where we HAVE to HOPE that Kekalainen is going to make a difference.

[Thorny]

Friedman on the Fan 590 is adamant ADAMANT that Kesselring was a guy Adams was specifically targeting, and one league person told him earlier this summer “if one guy moves it’s Kesselring to Buffalo” 

so Adams focused on him as the guy we needed and traded what we needed to get him