Eric Johnson- Advanced Stats Nightmare

[JoeSchmoe]

All his "experience" doesn't seem to be doing 💩 both with his own play and with the team.

Stats wise he's by far our worst d-man. The talking point is that he's the key guy for the PK, but he's also our 2nd worst there besides our other dud acquisition. 

I miss Kale Clague.

Edited November 26, 2023 by JoeSchmoe

[Pimlach]

Please.  He is not the problem.  
 

This thing was broke long before him.  

[pi2000]

He's been fine.

Clifton on the other hand, yikes.

[triumph_communes]

Cliffton is 200x worse 

[Captain Caveman]

Clifton absolutely needs to be benched or waives / sent down.  He is killing this team night after night.

 

That's not to say he's the only issue, but that would be a great start.

 

 

[SDS]

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[Night Train]

Clifton has tipped in 3 goals for the bad guys. I also view games where he's doing OK. 

Power and Samuelson have achieved deity status with some but not with me. They have a LONG way to go before I start handing out gratuities to either. Coughing up the puck and watching opponents stuff home goals in our crease seems to be their hobby. 

[bob_sauve28]

Maybe the advanced stats are worthless? 

[inkman]

4 hours ago, Captain Caveman said:

Clifton absolutely needs to be benched or waives / sent down.  He is killing this team night after night.

 

That's not to say he's the only issue, but that would be a great start.

 

 

Clifton signed for $10 million guaranteed over the next 3 seasons.  He’s not get waived.  

[JoeSchmoe]

Nice offseason KA.

Edited November 26, 2023 by JoeSchmoe

[TheAud]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Nice offseason KA.

What is "Relative Expected Goals %"?  Is it telling me that Dahlin is the Sabres 5th best defenseman? Because if it is, it's BS. 

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Maybe the advanced stats are worthless? 

 Colorado, Tampa, Vegas and Pittsburgh all have heavily used analytics in Hockey Ops in the past decade and it’s worked pretty well for them. 

[LGR4GM]

I'm starting to wonder if analytics gets over ruled by traditional scouting frequently in Buffalo. 

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, TheAud said:

What is "Relative Expected Goals %"?  Is it telling me that Dahlin is the Sabres 5th best defenseman? Because if it is, it's BS. 

This is 5 on 5. It stands to reason, Dahlin is getting the hardest matchups on the team. He helps put more pucks in nets than any of the others on his team, but so does his opposition when he's out there.

Who's Johnson (in his protected minutes) getting for 5 on 5 matchups? But it's his experience, right?

Edited November 26, 2023 by JoeSchmoe

[JoeSchmoe]

3 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Maybe the advanced stats are worthless? 

Maybe they're too hard for you to interpret. As Brawndo said, the top teams know how to use them.

[Pimlach]

2 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

This is 5 on 5. It stands to reason, Dahlin is getting the hardest matchups on the team. He helps put more pucks in nets than any of the others on his team, but so does his opposition when he's out there.

Who's Johnson in his protected minutes getting for 5 on 5 matchups? 

Who counts an expected goal occurrence?   What is it that is being counted anyway?  

Seems like the forward lines you are paired with has a lot to do  with expected goals.   If you mostly paired with the Krebs and Jost line you have little chance. 
 

Lots of complaints on Power.  He gets lots of minutes.  This suggests he is our best defender in 5v5.  

[bob_sauve28]

17 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Maybe they're too hard for you to interpret. As Brawndo said, the top teams know how to use them.

Oh is that it, there real high brow stuff? Only the chosen few like you understand them? I guess you are smarter than me, lol. Real a-hole statement from you. 

Toronto in 2014 hired a real wiz kid. Sure got them far. 

[Curt]

3 hours ago, Night Train said:

Clifton has tipped in 3 goals for the bad guys. I also view games where he's doing OK. 

Power and Samuelson have achieved deity status with some but not with me. They have a LONG way to go before I start handing out gratuities to either. Coughing up the puck and watching opponents stuff home goals in our crease seems to be their hobby. 

Handing out gratuities to players?  Thats a new one!

[Curt]

1 hour ago, TheAud said:

What is "Relative Expected Goals %"?  Is it telling me that Dahlin is the Sabres 5th best defenseman? Because if it is, it's BS. 

There is no one statistic that will tell you definitively who is better than who.  This stat, just like any other, is one piece of a big puzzle.  

[TheAud]

26 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

This is 5 on 5. It stands to reason, Dahlin is getting the hardest matchups on the team. He helps put more pucks in nets than any of the others on his team, but so does his opposition when he's out there.

Who's Johnson (in his protected minutes) getting for 5 on 5 matchups? But it's his experience, right?

I wonder about the sample size and context relative to this metric. Power doesn't get sheltered minutes so far as I can tell but he's well ahead of Dahlin. Seems like you'd have to consider zone starts as well. Just from watching I don't get the sense that E. Johnson gets 'protected' relative to matchups, but I don't have any data on that either (and I'm not looking it up). But it would stand to reason that if E. Johnson is used much more often than say, Jokiharu, for defensive zone starts, he would have a lower number here. But the reason he's even in that position is because the coaching staff is more comfortable with there (rightly or wrongly). 

I guess it would be good to have a more holistic argument as to why Johnson sucks but it's a fan forum, not a Stats II homework assignment, so I get it.  

1 minute ago, Curt said:

There is no one statistic that will tell you definitively who is better than who.  This stat, just like any other, is one piece of a big puzzle.  

Yeah, I get it. Sometimes it's fun to see if the OP gets it though. 

[JoeSchmoe]

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm starting to wonder if analytics gets over ruled by traditional scouting frequently in Buffalo. 

Supposedly they alternate picks. The Analytics Department gets the first pick every draft those. 
 

The Leinonen Pick was definitely not on them. 
 

The biggest hurdle is getting the coaching staff on board. 
Granato insisting on keeping Dahlin and Samuelsson together despite having better metrics apart is an example 
 

Carolina has one of the top analytics staff in the league and Brindamour was very hesitant to use the information at first. He said in an interview I do not understand where a lot of the data comes from, but I know it works when I use it 

[Brawndo]

27 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Toronto in 2014 hired a real wiz kid. Sure got them far. 

Toronto has made the playoffs for seven consecutive years and usually finishes in the top 10 in the league for total points. 
 

Yes they have only advanced to the second round once but it is still better than then a 12 year and counting playoff drought 

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Supposedly they alternate picks. The Analytics Department gets the first pick every draft those. 
 

The Leinonen Pick was definitely not on them. 
 

The biggest hurdle is getting the coaching staff on board. 
Granato insisting on keeping Dahlin and Samuelsson together despite having better metrics apart is an example 
 

Carolina has one of the top analytics staff in the league and Brindamour was very hesitant to use the information at first. He said in an interview I do not understand where a lot of the data comes from, but I know it works when I use it 

The Leinonen pick sticks in my craw.

[mjd1001]

4 hours ago, Night Train said:

Clifton has tipped in 3 goals for the bad guys. I also view games where he's doing OK. 

Power and Samuelson have achieved deity status with some but not with me. They have a LONG way to go before I start handing out gratuities to either. Coughing up the puck and watching opponents stuff home goals in our crease seems to be their hobby. 

Clifton I think is hit and miss. He has bad games, but if you view him as a good 3rd pair  guy who can slot in occasionally as a 2nd pair guy, I'm good with him.

I agree on Power and Samuelsson.  Power, I thought most were too high on him last year, I saw a lot of tenative play from him. This year he seems to be a slight step behind even where he was last year. Samuelson can be good in his own end and on the PK, but he is never availaible.  Samuelson IS 'good' for a young guy, and Power I think will be very good/great, but he isn't close to being there yet.

Dahlin had a slow start but is playing better the last 2 weeks. He is bordering on Elite, but he won't be by the end of the year if you keep running him into the ground.

Overall, the D couuld be better, but I'm not upset with their play.  Even Johnson.  To me this teams primary shortcoming is they just aren't scoring goals they way they were last year, AND if you look at the goals allowed (look not just at the 1-2 seconds before the goal was scored but watch how the play develops for 5-10 seconds before), it is STILL the forwards that are often hanging the D out to dry with the forward's awful positioning that the D-men are often out of postion to try to cover up for mistakes in the D-zone by the forwards.